The third quarter earnings season is in full swing, with several AI players reporting results this week, including Palantir (PLTR), AMD (AMD), and Supermicro (SMCI). So far, the earnings season is off to a positive start. As of Oct. 31, 64% of S&P 500 companies have reported results, according to FactSet data, and analysts are expecting a 10.7% jump in earnings per share during the third quarter. If that figure holds, it would mark the fourth straight quarter of double-digit earnings growth but a decelera ...

Core Viewpoint - Super Micro Computer (SMCI.US) is facing pressure on its stock price due to lower-than-expected preliminary revenue guidance for Q1 FY2026, which is projected at $5 billion, below previous guidance and Wall Street expectations [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The preliminary revenue expectation for Q1 FY2026 is $5 billion, which is lower than the market consensus of $5.83 billion [1] - This represents a year-over-year decline of 1.9% compared to the same quarter last year [1] Group 2: Market Reaction - The stock price of Super Micro Computer dropped by 2.8% in pre-market trading following the revenue guidance announcement [1] - Investors are particularly focused on management's insights regarding business momentum and new order situations during the upcoming earnings call [1]

The third quarter earnings season is in full swing, with several AI players reporting results this week, including Palantir (PLTR), AMD (AMD), and Supermicro (SMCI). So far, the earnings season is off to a positive start. As of Oct. 31, 64% of S&P 500 companies have reported results, according to FactSet data, and analysts are expecting a 10.7% jump in earnings per share during the third quarter. If that figure holds, it would mark the fourth straight quarter of double-digit earnings growth but a decelera ...

Core Viewpoint - The individual investor adopts a contrarian investment style, focusing on deep value opportunities, particularly in stocks that have recently experienced sell-offs due to non-recurrent events, while also considering insider buying as a positive signal [1] Investment Strategy - The investment portfolio is split approximately 50%-50% between shares and call options, indicating a balanced approach to risk and return [1] - The investor's timeframe for holding positions typically ranges from 3 to 24 months, suggesting a medium-term investment horizon [1] - Fundamental analysis is employed to assess the health of companies, including their leverage and financial ratios compared to sector and industry averages [1] Stock Selection Criteria - The investor screens for stocks that have undergone recent sell-offs, particularly when insiders are purchasing shares at the new lower price, indicating potential recovery [1] - Professional background checks are conducted on insiders who buy shares post-sell-off, adding a layer of due diligence to the investment process [1] Technical Analysis - Technical analysis is utilized to optimize entry and exit points, with a focus on support and resistance levels on weekly charts, employing multicolor lines for clarity [1] - Trend lines are drawn in multicolor patterns to assist in visualizing market movements and potential price actions [1]

Market Overview - US stock futures increased on Monday morning, indicating a continuation of the strong momentum from October, with S&P 500 futures rising 0.3%, Nasdaq 100 futures jumping 0.6%, and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures adding about 0.1% [1] - October was a strong month for stocks, with the S&P 500 rising 2.3%, the Dow gaining 2.5%, and the Nasdaq Composite climbing 4.7%, driven by investor interest in growth and AI-linked companies, particularly Big Tech and the "Magnificent Seven" [2][19] - Optimism regarding easing US-China trade tensions contributed to market gains, although concerns remain in Washington due to a government shutdown delaying key economic reports [2][19] Earnings Reports - Earnings season is active, with about 300 S&P 500 companies having reported third-quarter results, and over 100 more reports expected this week from firms such as Palantir, Super Micro, and AMD [4][20] - Berkshire Hathaway's stock rose over 1% after reporting a 17% profit increase in its third-quarter results, attributed to a mild hurricane season and investment gains [6][10][20] Significant Corporate Developments - IREN stock surged 24% following the announcement of a $9.7 billion cloud services contract with Microsoft, which will utilize Nvidia's GB300 processors to enhance AI and data center infrastructure [8][20] - The GB300 processors will be installed in stages until 2026 at IREN's 750-megawatt campus in Texas, with Microsoft making a 20% prepayment [9][20] Leadership Changes - Warren Buffett will step down as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway in January, with Vice Chair Greg Abel set to take over, while Buffett remains as chairman [11][20] - Berkshire Hathaway's significant cash pile of $381.7 billion as of September is expected to remain intact despite recent investments [11][20] Market Reactions - Xiaomi shares rose over 3% following a lighthearted exchange between Chinese President Xi Jinping and South Korean President Lee Jae Myung, highlighting sensitive security issues in US-China relations [13][20] - Gold prices fell below $4000 per ounce after China removed a tax incentive for gold purchases, although prices are still up more than 50% this year due to demand from central banks and investors [15][16][20]

Core Insights - The third quarter earnings season is currently active, with several AI companies reporting results, including Palantir, AMD, and Supermicro [1] - As of October 31, 64% of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings, with an expected 10.7% increase in earnings per share for Q3, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth, although a slowdown from the 12% growth in Q2 [2][3] Earnings Expectations - Analysts had slightly lower expectations prior to the quarter, forecasting a 7.9% increase in earnings per share for S&P 500 companies [3] - The earnings reports from AI beneficiaries such as Palantir, AMD, and Supermicro are anticipated this week, along with updates from other notable companies [4] Notable Companies Reporting - Other significant companies expected to report include Shopify, Uber, Pfizer, Spotify, Marriott International, Toyota, Novo Nordisk, McDonald's, AppLovin, Robinhood, DoorDash, Snap, AstraZeneca, ConocoPhillips, Airbnb, Warner Bros. Discovery, Block, Duke Energy, and Wendy's [5]

Core Viewpoint - Supermicro (SMCI.US) is set to release its Q1 FY2026 earnings on November 4, with preliminary revenue expectations of $5 billion, which is below previous guidance and Wall Street estimates, leading to recent stock pressure [1] Revenue Expectations - The market's general expectation for the quarter's revenue is $5.83 billion, reflecting a 1.9% decline year-over-year [2] - Supermicro's preliminary revenue data for Q1 FY2026 was significantly below market expectations, resulting in an 8% drop in stock price [1][2] Analyst Ratings and Reactions - Analyst Kevin Cassidy from Rosenblatt Securities raised the target price for Supermicro from $50 to $60, maintaining a "Buy" rating despite the disappointing revenue forecast, citing over $12 billion in new design orders [3] - Analyst Vijay Lakshman from Mizuho Securities reiterated a "Neutral" rating with a target price of $50, noting that the new design orders are likely from clients expecting deliveries in Q2 FY2026 [3][4] - TipRanks AI analysts assigned a "Neutral" rating with a target price of $56, indicating about 8% upside potential, while highlighting strong revenue growth and cash flow improvements [4] Market Dynamics - The demand for NVIDIA and AMD chips remains strong, which may lead to revenue deferrals into Q2 FY2026 [4] - Dell Technologies is gaining market share in the enterprise AI server market, which could impact Supermicro's competitive position [4] Consensus Ratings - Wall Street consensus rating for Supermicro is "Neutral," based on 8 Neutral, 4 Buy, and 3 Sell ratings, with an average target price of $44.15, suggesting approximately 15% downside risk from current stock levels [5]

Core Viewpoint - Supermicro (SMCI.US) is set to release its Q1 FY2026 earnings report on November 4, 2023, with preliminary revenue expectations of $5 billion, which is below previous guidance and Wall Street estimates, leading to recent stock pressure [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's preliminary revenue for Q1 FY2026 is approximately $5 billion, significantly lower than the market consensus of $6.48 billion, resulting in an 8% drop in stock price following the announcement [1] - Wall Street anticipates a 49.3% year-over-year decline in earnings per share (EPS) to $0.38 for Q1 FY2026 [1] - The market's general expectation for Q1 FY2026 revenue is $5.83 billion, reflecting a 1.9% decrease compared to the same period last year [1] Group 2: Orders and Future Outlook - Despite the disappointing revenue forecast, Supermicro reported over $12 billion in new design orders, which are expected to start delivering in Q2 FY2026 [1][2] - Analyst Kevin Cassidy from Rosenblatt Securities raised the target price from $50 to $60, maintaining a "buy" rating, citing the new design orders as a mitigating factor against the negative revenue outlook [2] - Analyst Vijay Lakshman from Mizuho Securities reiterated a "neutral" rating with a target price of $50, noting that the new orders are likely from clients seeking delivery in the upcoming quarter [2][3] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Analyst Ratings - The consensus rating for Supermicro stock on Wall Street is "neutral," based on 8 neutral, 4 buy, and 3 sell ratings, with an average target price of $44.15, indicating a potential downside risk of about 15% [4] - TipRanks AI analysts assigned a "neutral" rating with a target price of $56, suggesting an upside potential of approximately 8% [3]

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Core Insights - Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) stock experienced a decline from approximately $60 to $50, but remains about 9% higher than its previous valuation when the last bullish article was written [1] Company Analysis - The stock's recent performance indicates volatility, yet it retains a higher valuation compared to earlier assessments, suggesting potential resilience in the market [1] Investment Perspective - The author emphasizes a strong background in IT and fundamental analysis, which contributes to a confident approach in investment decisions, particularly in technology stocks [1] - The intention is to provide accessible insights for both seasoned and novice investors, fostering a collaborative exploration of market opportunities [1]