Core Insights - TKO Group Holdings is benefiting from media rights deals, additional UFC and WWE events, and rising site fees, supporting its growth outlook [1] - BTIG has named TKO Group a Top Pick, maintaining a Buy rating with a price forecast of $235, based on a sum-of-the-parts EV/EBITDA model [2] Financial Performance - UFC gate receipts in Q3 2025 totaled approximately $31 million across ten fights, down from $40 million year-over-year, aligning with expectations due to tough comparisons [3] - Premium numbered events generated $8–$11 million each, while fight night events averaged $2-$3 million, with average ticket prices ranging from $130 to $275 [4] - TKO's first major boxing event, Canelo vs. Crawford, generated around $47 million in gate receipts with an average ticket price of $670, attracting 41.4 million global livestream viewers [5] Media Rights and Revenue - TKO signed a long-term media rights deal with Paramount Skydance to stream 12 annual Zuffa Boxing events starting January 2026, following a $7.7 billion deal for UFC's U.S. domestic rights [6] - UFC's core unit economics estimate a net profit of approximately $35 million per fight in 2025, with media rights accounting for about 60% of event revenue [7] - Partnerships and marketing contribute around $7 million per fight, with live events generating about $6 million; potential upside in partnership revenue could rise 25% year-over-year in 2025 [8] Growth Projections - BTIG projects UFC revenue growth of 25-37% in 2026, with EBITDA margins between 57% and 60.5%, alongside growth in WWE and IMG segments [9] - Fiscal 2025 revenue is projected at $4.69 billion, increasing to $6.01 billion in fiscal 2026, with adjusted EBITDA expected to rise from $1.56 billion to $2.30 billion [10] Market Position - TKO remains the leading combat sports entertainment platform with strong pricing power and industry-leading margins, supported by a loyal fan base [11]

Core Viewpoint - TKO Group Holdings (TKO) has been upgraded to a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), indicating a positive outlook on its earnings estimates, which significantly influence stock prices [1][3]. Earnings Estimates and Stock Price Impact - The Zacks rating system emphasizes the correlation between changes in earnings estimates and stock price movements, particularly due to institutional investors adjusting their valuations based on these estimates [4][6]. - Rising earnings estimates for TKO Group suggest an improvement in the company's underlying business, which could lead to higher stock prices as investors respond positively [5][10]. Earnings Estimate Revisions - TKO Group is projected to earn $2.91 per share for the fiscal year ending December 2025, with no year-over-year change, but the Zacks Consensus Estimate has increased by 2.5% over the past three months [8]. Zacks Rank System - The Zacks Rank system classifies stocks into five groups based on earnings estimates, with Zacks Rank 1 stocks historically generating an average annual return of +25% since 1988, indicating a strong performance potential [7][9]. - TKO Group's upgrade to Zacks Rank 1 places it in the top 5% of Zacks-covered stocks, suggesting a strong likelihood of near-term price appreciation [10].

Core Insights - The article highlights that several S&P 500 companies are expected to achieve significant revenue growth in the third quarter, surpassing even high-performing stocks like Nvidia and Palantir [2][3]. Revenue Growth Expectations - Eight S&P 500 stocks, including Expand Energy, KeyCorp, and Robinhood Markets, are projected to post over 60% revenue growth in the upcoming third-quarter earnings season [2]. - Expand Energy is anticipated to see a remarkable revenue surge of 402% to $2 billion, largely due to its acquisition of Southwestern Energy [4]. - KeyCorp's revenue is expected to jump 170% to $1.9 billion, with a projected 24% increase in EPS for 2025 [7]. - Robinhood Markets is forecasted to achieve an 83% revenue increase to $1.2 billion in the third quarter of 2025 [6]. Comparative Performance - The expected revenue growth for Expand Energy, KeyCorp, and Robinhood significantly outpaces the anticipated growth of 55.6% for Nvidia and 50.5% for Palantir [3]. - Despite the high revenue growth projections, KeyCorp's stock has only risen 8% this year, indicating a potential disconnect between growth expectations and market performance [7]. Summary of Top Growth Companies - The following companies are expected to have the highest revenue growth in Q3 2025: - Expand Energy (EXE): 402.1% - KeyCorp (KEY): 170.8% - Robinhood Markets (HOOD): 82.6% - First Solar (FSLR): 75.1% - Bunge Global (BG): 74.0% - Amcor (AMCR): 71.5% - TKO Group (TKO): 65.2% - Oneok (OKE): 63.6% [8].

Core Insights - Paramount+ will become the exclusive home of Zuffa Boxing in the U.S., Canada, and Latin America starting January 2026, under a long-term media rights agreement with TKO Group Holdings [1][2] - Zuffa Boxing, a new professional boxing promotion, aims to redefine boxing viewership and will feature a full slate of events, beginning with 12 cards in its inaugural year [2][3] Company Overview - Paramount, a Skydance Corporation, operates in three segments: Filmed Entertainment, Direct-to-Consumer, and TV Media, and includes brands like CBS, Nickelodeon, and Showtime [4] - TKO Group Holdings, Inc. is a premium sports and entertainment company that owns properties such as UFC and WWE, reaching 1 billion households globally [6] Leadership and Vision - Dana White, UFC President and CEO, and HE Turki Alalshikh, Chairman of the General Entertainment Authority, lead Zuffa Boxing, emphasizing the partnership's potential to enhance boxing's global reach [2][3] - Cindy Holland, Chair of Direct-to-Consumer for Paramount, highlighted the partnership as a significant step for delivering premium sports content and creating long-term value for fans [3]

Company Overview - TKO Group Holdings, Inc. has a market cap of $38.8 billion and is involved in managing sports and entertainment intellectual property, producing and licensing live events, programming, and various filmed content across multiple platforms [1] - The company offers UFC FIGHT PASS, a direct-to-consumer streaming service that includes live events, on-demand content, and original programming [1] Financial Performance - TKO reported Q2 2025 EPS of $1.17, which was weaker than expected, but shares rose 3.3% the following day due to revenue beating forecasts at $1.31 billion, reflecting a 10% year-over-year increase [5] - Net income for TKO surged to $273.1 million, while adjusted EBITDA increased by 75% to $526.5 million, with margins improving to 40% [5] - The company raised its full-year guidance and announced a significant five-year deal with ESPN to stream WWE premium live events, boosting investor optimism [5] Stock Performance - TKO shares have fallen 8.3% from their 52-week high of $212.49 but have gained 11.9% over the past three months, outperforming the Invesco Dynamic Leisure and Entertainment ETF (PEJ), which rose 10.9% during the same period [3] - Year-to-date, TKO's shares have surged 37.8%, significantly surpassing PEJ's 17.4% return, and over the past 52 weeks, the stock has soared 61.7%, compared to PEJ's 29.2% return [4] - TKO stock has consistently traded above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages since last year [4] Analyst Sentiment - Analysts are optimistic about TKO's prospects, with a consensus rating of "Strong Buy" from 21 analysts, and a mean price target of $211.29, indicating an 8.4% premium to current levels [6] - In comparison, rival Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. has seen a YTD stock increase of 25.3% and a 51.7% increase over the past 52 weeks, indicating TKO's outperformance relative to its industry peers [6]

Group 1: Workday (WDAY) - Workday announced a $4 billion increase in its buyback authorization, bringing the total buyback capacity to $5 billion, which is 8% of its market capitalization [1][2] - The company plans to utilize this buyback capacity through fiscal 2027, indicating a commitment to significant buyback spending over the next 16 months [2] - Workday's buyback spending in the last two quarters was approximately $961 million, an 86% increase compared to the previous two quarters [3] Group 2: Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) - Chipotle announced an additional $500 million share repurchase authorization, with a total buyback capacity of around $750 million as of September 15 [6] - The company's buyback pace has increased significantly, spending an average of $465 million quarterly over the past four quarters compared to $190 million in the preceding eight quarters [7] - Chipotle's stock price has seen a decline of over 20% from June 30, 2024, to June 30, 2025, suggesting the company sees value in shares around the $50 mark [8] Group 3: TKO Group (TKO) - TKO Group is planning a $1 billion buyback program, with $26 million already executed, representing 4% of its market capitalization [11][12] - The majority of the buyback will be conducted through an accelerated repurchase program, expected to be completed by December [12] - TKO's forward P/E ratio is 36x, which is below its historical average of 41.5x, indicating a potentially attractive valuation [13]

Core Insights - Analysts predict significant revenue growth for four S&P 500 stocks, with expectations of 60% or more this year, surpassing Nvidia's 58.2% and Palantir's 45.2% growth rates [2][3] Group 1: Revenue Growth Projections - Expand Energy (EXE) is expected to lead with a revenue increase of 215% in 2025, reaching $9.4 billion, driven by high oil prices [5][8] - TKO Group (TKO) is projected to achieve a 67% revenue growth, hitting $4.7 billion in 2025, reflecting strong performance in the entertainment sector [7][8] - EQT (EQT) and KeyCorp (KEY) are also forecasted to see revenue growth of 60.9% and 60.1%, respectively, indicating robust performance across various sectors [8] Group 2: Market Context - The overall S&P 500 is anticipated to post a modest revenue growth of 6.2% in 2025, highlighting the exceptional nature of the aforementioned stocks [3] - Analysts have expressed increased optimism regarding earnings outlooks for the third quarter, suggesting a positive sentiment in the market [3]

Core Viewpoint - TKO Group Holdings, Inc. has announced significant share repurchase initiatives totaling $974 million, indicating a strong commitment to returning value to shareholders [1]. Share Repurchase Agreement - The company has entered into an accelerated share repurchase agreement to repurchase $800 million of its outstanding Class A common stock [1]. - This move reflects the company's strategy to enhance shareholder value through substantial stock buybacks [1]. 10b5-1 Trading Plan - TKO Group Holdings has also established a 10b5-1 trading plan for the repurchase of up to $174 million of its outstanding Class A common stock [1]. - The implementation of this plan allows for systematic repurchases over time, providing flexibility in managing share buybacks [1].

Group 1 - The two-year anniversary of TKO highlights the successful execution of initiatives since the merger of WWE and UFC, including streamlined operations and growth in sponsorship and live events [1] - Recent renegotiation of media rights deals has been conducted on improved terms, indicating a positive trend in revenue generation [1] - The company is focused on its growth strategy and is optimistic about future developments in the industry [2]

TKO Group Holdings Conference Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: TKO Group Holdings (NYSE: TKO) - **Date**: September 10, 2025 - **Key Speaker**: Marc Shapiro, President and COO Key Industry Insights Media Rights and Partnerships - TKO has successfully renegotiated media rights deals, significantly increasing revenue streams - UFC secured a seven-year deal worth **$1.1 billion**, double the previous ESPN deal [5][6] - WWE's new media rights include a **10-year deal** for WWE Raw with Netflix and a **five-year deal** for SmackDown [6] - Paramount+ is seen as a strong partner for WWE, leveraging CBS's sports history to grow audience and brand [12][11] Revenue Growth and Financial Performance - TKO is experiencing strong financial performance with **60%+ free cash flow conversion** and projected **35% to 40% EBITDA margins** [23][23] - The company anticipates **$400 million** in global partnerships, up from **$30 million** when UFC was acquired [26] - TKO is focused on capital returns, including a **dividend increase** and a share buyback program [56][59] Live Events and Ticketing - Demand for live events remains high, with TKO optimizing ticket pricing and capacity [31] - The company is seeing record ticket yields, particularly in UFC events, with plans to replicate this success in WWE [35][37] - Upcoming events, such as WrestlePalooza, are expected to enhance brand visibility and revenue [39] Boxing and Future Opportunities - TKO is launching Zuffa Boxing, aiming for **12 to 16 fights per year** and exploring media rights for these events [20][19] - The company plans to partner with Saudi Arabia for high-profile boxing events, minimizing financial risk [18] Additional Insights Strategic Focus - TKO emphasizes a humble approach despite current successes, focusing on execution and long-term growth strategies [7] - The company is not actively pursuing acquisitions but remains open to opportunistic deals [56] Operational Efficiency - TKO maintains a lean cost structure while ensuring competitive fighter pay, which is crucial for retaining talent [48][49] - The integration of UFC and WWE operations is ongoing, with expectations for increased synergies and efficiencies [22] Market Trends - There is a growing trend towards premium experiences in live events, with consumers seeking personalized and exclusive opportunities [32][33] - TKO is capitalizing on this trend through its On Location hospitality services, enhancing the overall event experience [33] Conclusion - TKO Group Holdings is positioned for continued growth through strategic media partnerships, robust financial performance, and a focus on enhancing live event experiences. The company is committed to returning capital to shareholders while exploring new opportunities in boxing and global partnerships.