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AI fears pummel software stocks: Is it 'illogical' panic or a SaaS apocalypse?
CNBC· 2026-02-06 04:21
Core Viewpoint - The release of new AI tools by Anthropic has raised concerns in the software sector, leading to a sell-off in software-as-a-service and data provider stocks [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reaction - The S&P 500 Software & Services Index, which includes 140 companies, fell over 4% on Thursday, marking an eight-session losing streak and a year-to-date decline of approximately 20% [2]. - Shares of major companies such as Thomson Reuters, Salesforce, and LegalZoom experienced significant declines during the sell-off, which also affected Asian IT firms like Tata Consultancy Services and Infosys [3]. Group 2: AI Tools Impact - Anthropic's new AI tools are designed to manage complex professional workflows, potentially undermining traditional software business models across various functions, including legal and technology research, customer relationship management, and analytics [2]. - There is a division among analysts and tech executives regarding the long-term impact of these AI tools on the software and data provider industries [3].
Thomson Reuters (TRI) Q4 2025 Earnings Transcript
Yahoo Finance· 2026-02-05 15:30
Core Insights - The company expresses confidence in its ability to leverage proprietary content and expertise to deliver professional-grade AI solutions, particularly in the legal sector, amidst growing competition in AI [1][5][6] - The company has reported strong financial results for 2025, with organic revenue growth of 7% and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 39.2%, indicating solid operational performance [7][12][14] - The company is committed to a balanced capital allocation strategy, including a 10% increase in annual dividends and ongoing share repurchase programs, while maintaining a strong liquidity position with $11 billion of capital capacity through 2028 [11][28][30] Financial Performance - Full-year organic revenue grew 7%, driven by a 9% increase in the Big Three segments, with adjusted EBITDA increasing by 6% to $2.9 billion [12][13][14] - Fourth quarter organic revenues also grew 7%, with legal organic revenue increasing by 9%, supported by strong performance from Westlaw and co-counsel products [12][23][24] - Free cash flow for 2025 was reported at $1.95 billion, slightly exceeding expectations, driven by EBITDA growth [27] AI and Innovation - The company is focusing on AI-driven workflows, with plans to integrate advanced AI capabilities into its legal and tax offerings, which are seen as significant growth opportunities [6][9][10] - The launch of Westlaw Advantage has been successful, with early sales indicating a new standard in legal research capabilities [5][42] - The company has developed over 300 AI use cases across various departments, demonstrating a commitment to leveraging AI for operational efficiency [17][18] Capital Allocation and M&A Strategy - The company executed a $1 billion share repurchase program and completed four acquisitions for approximately $850 million in 2025, enhancing its capabilities in key segments [29][30] - The company aims to return 75% of its free cash flow to investors in 2026, indicating a strong commitment to shareholder value [46][30] - The company maintains a cautious approach to M&A, focusing on strategic acquisitions that enhance customer experience and align with its long-term goals [55][56] Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company believes its unique content sets and deep domain expertise create a significant barrier to entry for competitors in the legal research space [41][40] - The percentage of annualized contract value from GenAI-enabled products has increased to 28%, reflecting the growing integration of AI into the company's offerings [24][72] - The company sees a strong demand for its AI-driven tools across all firm sizes, indicating a broad market appeal and potential for growth [71]
Thomson Reuters(TRI) - 2025 Q4 - Earnings Call Transcript
2026-02-05 14:32
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Full-year organic revenue grew 7%, driven by 9% growth for Big 3 segments [9][14] - Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded by 100 basis points to 39.2% [9][14] - Free cash flow for 2025 was $1.95 billion, slightly ahead of expectations [10][24] - Adjusted earnings per share for the year was $3.92, compared to $3.77 per share in the prior year [14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Legal organic revenue grew 9%, driven by Westlaw and CoCounsel [12][21] - Corporate organic revenue also grew 9%, supported by legal, tax, and risk portfolios [12] - Tax, Audit, & Accounting organic revenues increased by 11%, driven by UltraTax and CoCounsel [13][21] - Reuters' organic revenues rose 5%, primarily from the agency business and a contract with LSEG [14][22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Global print organic revenues declined 6% year-on-year [14][22] - The percentage of annualized contract value from GenAI-enabled products increased to 28%, up from 24% [22] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to leverage proprietary content and deep domain expertise with advanced AI capabilities to deliver specialized workflows [8][10] - The strategy includes aggressive innovation and a focus on AI-driven solutions, particularly in legal workflows [8][10] - The company is committed to a balanced capital allocation approach, including annual dividend growth and strategic M&A [11][25] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the value of their content and expertise in delivering professional-grade AI solutions [5][6] - The outlook for 2026 includes organic revenue growth of 7.5%-8%, with approximately 9.5% for Big 3 segments [27][29] - The company expects healthy margin expansion and strong free cash flow while continuing to invest in innovation [11][27] Other Important Information - The company executed a $1 billion share repurchase program and announced a 10% increase in the annual common stock dividend [11][25] - The company has an estimated $11 billion of capital capacity through 2028, allowing for aggressive and opportunistic investments [11][25] Q&A Session Summary Question: What drove the slowdown in legal recurring growth from Q3 to Q4? - The slowdown is associated with the government business, but there is strong momentum in Legal Professionals excluding government [34][35] Question: What is the moat around Westlaw and Practical Law? - The moat is based on unique content sets created by skilled lawyers and deep domain expertise, making it difficult for competitors to replicate [39][41] Question: How are share buybacks prioritized in the current environment? - Share repurchases are considered attractive at current levels, and the company plans to discuss this option with the board [45][46] Question: What is the size and adoption progress of CoCounsel? - The reception of CoCounsel Legal has been encouraging across various law firm sizes, and the company is optimistic about its adoption [51][53] Question: How does the company plan to monetize AI product innovations? - The company does not price based on headcount and aims to price based on value, benefiting from increased efficiency in legal departments [66][67]
Thomson Reuters(TRI) - 2025 Q4 - Earnings Call Transcript
2026-02-05 14:32
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Full-year organic revenue grew by 7%, driven by a 9% growth for the big three segments [9][12] - Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded by 100 basis points to 39.2%, meeting the company's outlook [9][14] - Free cash flow for 2025 was $1.95 billion, slightly ahead of expectations [9][24] - Adjusted earnings per share for the year was $3.92, compared to $3.77 per share in the prior year [14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Legal organic revenue grew by 9%, driven by Westlaw and CoCounsel [12][21] - Corporate segment's organic revenue also grew by 9%, supported by legal, tax, and risk portfolios [12][21] - Tax, audit, and accounting organic revenues increased by 11%, driven by UltraTax and CoCounsel [12][13] - Reuters' organic revenues rose by 5%, primarily due to growth in the agency business [12][14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The percentage of annualized contract value (ACV) from GenAI-enabled products increased to 28%, up from 24% in the previous quarter [22] - Global print organic revenues declined by 6% year-on-year, in line with expectations [12][14] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to leverage proprietary content and deep domain expertise alongside AI capabilities to deliver specialized workflows [8][10] - The strategy includes aggressive innovation and a focus on AI-driven solutions, particularly in legal workflows [8][10] - The company plans to continue its balanced capital allocation approach, including annual dividend growth and strategic M&A [11][25] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the medium-term growth potential, reaffirming a 2026 outlook for organic revenue growth of 7.5%-8% [11][27] - The company anticipates healthy margin expansion and strong free cash flow while continuing to invest in innovation [11][27] - Management noted that AI-driven workflows present a significant opportunity, particularly in legal services [8][10] Other Important Information - The company executed a $1 billion share repurchase program and announced a 10% increase in its annual common stock dividend [11][25] - The company invested $850 million in M&A, completing four strategic acquisitions [10][26] Q&A Session Summary Question: What drove the slowdown in legal recurring growth from Q3 to Q4? - Management indicated that the slowdown was associated with the government business, which is expected to slow further in Q1 due to cancellations [34][36] Question: What is the moat around Westlaw and Practical Law? - Management highlighted the unique content sets and deep domain expertise as key differentiators that are difficult for competitors to replicate [39][41] Question: How are share buybacks prioritized in the current environment? - Management acknowledged that share repurchases are attractive at current levels and will continue discussions with the board regarding this [45][46] Question: What is the size and adoption progress of CoCounsel? - Management noted that while specific dollar figures are not provided, the reception of CoCounsel has been encouraging across various law firm sizes [51][53] Question: How does the company plan to monetize AI product innovations? - Management stated that they do not price based on headcount and aim to price based on value, benefiting from increased efficiency in legal and tax departments [66][67]
Thomson Reuters(TRI) - 2025 Q4 - Earnings Call Transcript
2026-02-05 14:30
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Full-year organic revenue grew 7%, driven by 9% growth for the big three segments [9][12] - Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded by 100 basis points to 39.2% [9][13] - Free cash flow for 2025 was $1.95 billion, slightly ahead of expectations [9][24] - Adjusted earnings per share for the year was $3.92, compared to $3.77 per share in the prior year [13] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Legal organic revenue grew 9%, driven by Westlaw and CoCounsel [12][21] - Corporate organic revenue also grew 9%, supported by legal, tax, and risk portfolios [12][21] - Tax, audit, and accounting organic revenues increased by 11%, driven by UltraTax and CoCounsel [12][21] - Reuters' organic revenues rose 5%, primarily from the agency business and a contract with LSEG [12][21] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The percentage of annualized contract value (ACV) from GenAI-enabled products increased to 28%, up from 24% [22] - Global print organic revenues declined 6% year-on-year [12][21] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on leveraging proprietary content and deep domain expertise to deliver specialized AI workflows [7][8] - Continued innovation is emphasized, with several foundational product launches planned for 2026 [9][10] - The strategy includes a balanced capital allocation approach, with a commitment to annual dividend growth and strategic M&A [11][25] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the value of their content and expertise for delivering professional-grade AI solutions [5][6] - The outlook for 2026 includes organic revenue growth of 7.5%-8%, with approximately 9.5% for the big three segments [11][27] - Expected margin expansion and strong free cash flow are anticipated, even with continued investment in innovation [11][28] Other Important Information - The company executed a $1 billion share repurchase program and announced a 10% increase in the annual common stock dividend [11][26] - The company has an estimated $11 billion of capital capacity through 2028, positioning it for aggressive and opportunistic investments [11][25] Q&A Session Questions and Answers Question: What drove the slowdown in legal recurring growth from Q3 to Q4? - The slowdown is associated with the government business, which is expected to slow in Q1 due to cancellations [34][35] Question: What is the moat around Westlaw and Practical Law? - The moat is based on unique content sets created by skilled lawyers and deep domain expertise, making it difficult for competitors to replicate [38][40] Question: How are share buybacks prioritized in the current environment? - Share repurchases are considered attractive at current levels, and the company plans to return 75% of free cash flow to investors in 2026 [46][47] Question: What is the size and adoption progress of CoCounsel? - The reception of CoCounsel Legal has been encouraging among various law firms, and the company is optimistic about its growth [51][53] Question: How does the company plan to monetize AI product innovations? - The company does not price based on headcount and aims to price based on the value delivered by AI tools [67][68]
Thomson Reuters (TRI) Beats Q4 Earnings and Revenue Estimates
ZACKS· 2026-02-05 13:46
Thomson Reuters (TRI) came out with quarterly earnings of $1.07 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.06 per share. This compares to earnings of $1.01 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of +1.42%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this news and financial information company would post earnings of $0.81 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.85, delivering a surprise of +4.94%.Over the la ...
Thomson Reuters(TRI) - 2025 Q4 - Earnings Call Presentation
2026-02-05 13:30
REUTERS/Michaela Rehle Thomson Reuters 2025 Fourth -Quarter Results February 5, 2026 Agenda • Welcome / Introduction Gary Bisbee • Fourth -Quarter & Full -Year 2025 Highlights Steve Hasker Reimagining How We Work: Leveraging AI Internally • Q & A 2 Special Note Special Note Regarding Forward - Looking Statements, Material Assumptions and Material Risks This presentation consists of these slides and the associated remarks and comments, which are related and intended to be pres ented and understood together. ...
Thomson Reuters reports higher fourth-quarter revenue
Reuters· 2026-02-05 11:54
Core Viewpoint - Thomson Reuters reported higher fourth quarter revenue, driven by strong performance in its legal, tax, accounting, and corporate sectors, amidst investor concerns regarding the impact of artificial intelligence companies entering its key markets [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company experienced an increase in fourth quarter revenue, indicating positive growth in its business segments [1] - The growth was particularly supported by results from its legal, tax, and accounting businesses, highlighting the strength of these sectors [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Investors are currently weighing the implications of artificial intelligence companies moving into Thomson Reuters' key markets, suggesting potential competitive pressures [1]
Thomson Reuters Reports Fourth-Quarter and Full-Year 2025 Results
Prnewswire· 2026-02-05 11:30
Core Insights - Thomson Reuters reported solid revenue momentum with organic revenues up 9% for its "Big 3" segments in both the fourth quarter and full year of 2025 [1] - The company experienced a 5% increase in total revenues for Q4 2025 and a 3% increase for the full year, with organic revenues growing by 7% in both periods [1] - The CEO emphasized the benefits of investments in AI and technology to enhance product innovation and customer service [1] Financial Highlights - Q4 2025 - Total revenues reached $2,009 million, a 5% increase from $1,909 million in Q4 2024 [1] - Operating profit decreased by 25% to $540 million, primarily due to prior-year gains from the sale of FindLaw [1] - Diluted EPS fell to $0.74 from $1.30, reflecting lower operating profit [1] - Adjusted EBITDA increased by 8% to $777 million, with a margin of 38.7%, up from 37.6% [1] Financial Highlights - Full Year 2025 - Total revenues for the year were $7,476 million, a 3% increase from $7,258 million in 2024 [2] - Operating profit increased by 1% to $2,132 million [2] - Diluted EPS decreased to $3.33 from $4.89, largely due to a prior-year non-cash tax benefit [2] - Adjusted EBITDA rose by 6% to $2,936 million, with a margin of 39.2%, up from 38.2% [2] Segment Performance - Q4 2025 - Legal Professionals segment revenues increased by 1%, with organic growth of 9% [2] - Corporates segment revenues rose by 7%, with organic growth also at 9% [2] - Tax, Audit & Accounting Professionals segment saw a 13% revenue increase, with organic growth of 11% [2] - Reuters segment revenues increased by 6%, driven by AI-related content licensing [2] Segment Performance - Full Year 2025 - Legal Professionals segment revenues decreased by 2% to $2,868 million, with organic growth of 8% [3] - Corporates segment revenues increased by 8% to $1,987 million, with organic growth of 9% [3] - Tax, Audit & Accounting Professionals segment revenues rose by 12% to $1,302 million, with organic growth of 11% [3] - Reuters segment revenues increased by 3% to $853 million, with organic growth of 1% [3] 2026 Outlook - The company anticipates approximately 7% organic revenue growth in Q1 2026 and an adjusted EBITDA margin of around 42% [3] - Full-year 2026 total revenue growth is expected to be between 7.5% and 8.0% [3] - The adjusted EBITDA margin for 2026 is projected to increase by 100 basis points compared to 2025 [3] Dividend and Share Repurchase - The company announced a 10% increase in its annual dividend to $2.62 per common share, marking the 33rd consecutive annual increase [3] - A share repurchase program of up to $1.0 billion was completed, repurchasing 6.0 million shares [3]
美股科技软件板块大崩盘,罪魁祸首竟是这家公司?
Core Viewpoint - The emergence of native AI models, exemplified by Anthropic's new automation tools, poses a significant threat to traditional software companies, raising questions about the sustainability of their business models and competitive advantages [2][3]. Group 1: Impact of Anthropic's Tools - Anthropic's release of a legal tool plugin for its Claude Cowork platform has triggered panic selling in the software sector, particularly affecting legal software and data service companies [2]. - Major companies like Thomson Reuters and LegalZoom saw their stock prices plummet by 21% and over 20% respectively, as their core business models were directly challenged by the cost-effective and integrated solutions offered by AI [3]. - The market fears that if companies can use a single AI plugin to handle legal compliance tasks that previously required multiple expensive software subscriptions, the subscription value of traditional SaaS companies will be severely undermined [3]. Group 2: Subscription Model Crisis - The term "SaaSpocalypse" reflects the growing concern that AI advancements may not just assist growth but could potentially replace traditional subscription models entirely [5]. - The traditional software industry's reliance on high-margin recurring revenue from seat-based billing is threatened as AI agents can perform tasks that previously required multiple personnel [5]. - This shift in expectations regarding future growth is a key driver behind the current wave of panic selling in the software sector [5]. Group 3: Performance Discrepancies - Among S&P 500 software stocks, only 69% reported revenues above expectations, significantly lower than the tech sector's overall 85% success rate, indicating a weak position in the AI-driven market [6]. - Even strong performers like Microsoft are under scrutiny as their Azure cloud business shows signs of slowing growth, leading to a decline in stock price over four consecutive trading days [6]. - In contrast, Palantir emerged as a rare "safe haven" with a 70% revenue increase in Q4, suggesting that the market is selectively favoring companies that can effectively leverage AI to enhance productivity [6]. Group 4: Market Reallocation - Despite the Nasdaq's poor performance, the S&P 500 shows a "seesaw" effect, with companies like FedEx and Walmart gaining market value, indicating a shift of funds from vulnerable software stocks to more defensively positioned sectors [7]. - The selling pressure on software stocks is characterized by a "surrender" mentality among investors, who are eager to exit positions regardless of price [7]. - From an investment perspective, extreme panic often creates opportunities, as evidenced by Microsoft's valuation dropping to a three-year low with a forward P/E ratio around 25 [7]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The year 2026 is anticipated to be a pivotal moment for the software industry, as AI programming and automation lower development barriers and diminish traditional business moats [8]. - The consensus on Wall Street has shifted fundamentally, with software no longer seen as a guaranteed profit generator in the face of competition from companies like Anthropic that possess foundational AI models [8]. - Investors are advised to focus on identifying companies with core competencies that are not easily replaceable by automation, rather than blindly attempting to catch falling stocks [8].