Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The reported operating ratio for Q1 2025 was 60.7%, flat compared to the previous year despite a 90 basis point headwind from fuel and leap year effects [5][16] - Earnings per share for Q1 2025 was $2.70, reflecting a $0.19 or 7% headwind from fuel and leap year [6][16] - Net income for Q1 2025 was $1.6 billion, essentially flat versus last year, with operating income also flat despite a 7% volume growth [7][16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Freight revenue grew 1% year-over-year to $5.7 billion, with a 4% increase when excluding fuel surcharge impacts [9][10] - Bulk segment revenue was up 1% due to a 2% increase in volume, while industrial revenue decreased by 1% on a 1% decrease in volume [24][26] - Premium revenue increased by 5% on a 13% increase in volume, reflecting strong customer demand [27] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - AAR car loadings were up just over 7% compared to last year, indicating a solid start to Q2 2025 [29] - Challenges are anticipated in the food and beverage sector, particularly in the U.S. beer market, while coal volumes are expected to remain strong [29] - Grain exports into Mexico are expected to remain robust, supported by business development efforts [30] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to maintain its three-year targets set during the Investor Day, focusing on EPS growth in the high single to low double-digit range [20][21] - Continued emphasis on service and operational excellence is a key part of the strategy, with a focus on maximizing pricing and efficiency [8][21] - The company is actively pursuing business development opportunities, including new customer acquisitions and expansions [35][36] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the uncertainty in the marketplace but expressed confidence in the company's ability to adapt and perform [21][60] - The first quarter performance was viewed positively, with strong volumes and service metrics heading into Q2 [22][57] - Management remains committed to long-term guidance despite current market volatility and challenges [21][72] Other Important Information - Operating expenses for Q1 2025 were $3.7 billion, flat year-over-year, with productivity gains offsetting inflation and volume-related costs [13][16] - The company returned $2.5 billion to shareholders in Q1 2025 through dividends and share repurchases [19] - The adjusted debt to EBITDA ratio was 2.8 times at the end of the quarter, maintaining an A-rating from credit agencies [19] Q&A Session Summary Question: 2025 Guidance and Uncertainty - Management acknowledged the uncertainty in the market but reiterated confidence in achieving long-term targets, emphasizing the importance of operational efficiency [56][61] Question: Revenue Growth Assumptions - Management indicated that while the first quarter was flat, they are optimistic about achieving high single-digit earnings growth, contingent on volume and pricing strategies [68][72] Question: Pricing Strength and Sustainability - Management noted that the strong pricing in Q1 was a result of both inflation catch-up and improved service performance, with expectations for continued pricing strength [80][84] Question: Impact of Tariffs and Trade Policies - Management highlighted the need for clarity regarding tariffs and trade policies, emphasizing the importance of maintaining customer relationships and adapting to changing supply chain patterns [121][123] Question: Resource Management for Volatility - Management confirmed that they maintain a buffer of resources to manage volatility and ensure service delivery, utilizing technology for efficient decision-making [132][136]

Core Insights - Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) reported first-quarter 2025 earnings of $2.70 per share, slightly missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.73, but showing a year-over-year improvement of 0.4% due to strong operational efficiency and favorable pricing [1] - Operating revenues were $6.03 billion, falling short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.09 billion, and reflecting a 0.07% decline year-over-year attributed to lower fuel surcharge revenues and an unfavorable business mix [2] - Freight revenues, which constitute 94.4% of total revenues, increased by 1% to $5.7 billion, supported by a 7% growth in overall volume [3] Financial Performance - Total operating expenses remained flat year-over-year at $3.7 billion, with fuel expenses decreasing by 8% and compensation and benefits expenses falling by 1% [4] - The operating income was stable at $2.4 billion year-over-year, while the operating ratio held steady at 60.7%, although it was negatively impacted by lower fuel prices and a leap year effect [4] Segment Analysis - Bulk freight revenues rose by 1% year-over-year to $1.84 billion, contrary to expectations of a 1.2% decline, with segmental revenue carloads improving by 2% [5] - Industrial freight revenues decreased by 1% year-over-year to $2.08 billion, with revenue carloads also declining by 1% [5] - Premium freight revenues increased by 5% year-over-year to $1.77 billion, surpassing expectations of a 0.6% decrease, with revenue carloads improving by 13% [6] Liquidity and Debt - Union Pacific ended the first quarter of 2025 with cash and cash equivalents of $1.41 billion, up from $925 million in the same quarter of 2024, while debt due after one year decreased to $30.6 billion from $31.2 billion [8] Future Outlook - The company anticipates that volumes will be influenced by a mixed economic environment, fluctuations in coal demand, and challenging year-over-year international intermodal comparisons, while pricing gains are expected to positively impact the operating ratio [10] - Earnings per share growth is aligned with the company's three-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) target of high-single to low-double digits, with a commitment to maintaining an industry-leading operating ratio and return on invested capital [10] - The long-term capital allocation strategy remains unchanged, with a capital plan of $3.4 billion and share repurchases projected between $4 billion and $4.5 billion [11]

Here is how Union Pacific performed in the just reported quarter in terms of the metrics most widely monitored and projected by Wall Street analysts: Union Pacific (UNP) reported $6.03 billion in revenue for the quarter ended March 2025, representing a year- over-year decline of 0.1%. EPS of $2.70 for the same period compares to $2.69 a year ago. The reported revenue represents a surprise of -1.00% over the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.09 billion. With the consensus EPS estimate being $2.73, the EPS surpr ...

Union Pacific (UNP) came out with quarterly earnings of $2.70 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.73 per share. This compares to earnings of $2.69 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of -1.10%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this railroad would post earnings of $2.78 per share when it actually produced earnings of $2.91, delivering a surprise of 4.68%.Over the last four quarters, the company has ...

UNION PACIFIC CORPORATION FIRST QUARTER 2025 EARNINGS APRIL 24, 2025 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY FIRST QUARTER 2025 Jim Vena Chief Executive Officer 2 First Quarter Highlights & Executive Summary Highlights Executive Summary SAFETY + SERVICE & OPERATIONAL EXCELLENCE FINANCIAL REVIEW FIRST QUARTER 2025 Jennifer Hamann Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer 3 4 $2.70 Earnings per Share $2.4B Operating Income $1.6B Net Income 60.7% Operating Ratio Freight Car Velocity up 6% Workforce Productivity up 9% • Qua ...

Financial Performance - Union Pacific reported Q1 2025 net income of $1.6 billion, or $2.70 per diluted share, compared to $1.6 billion, or $2.69 per diluted share in Q1 2024[2]. - Net income for Q1 2025 was $1,626 million, a slight decrease of 0.9% from $1,641 million in Q1 2024[19]. - Cash provided by operating activities increased to $2,210 million in Q1 2025, up 4.1% from $2,122 million in Q1 2024[19]. - Free cash flow for Q1 2025 was $468 million, down 11% from $525 million in Q1 2024[19]. Revenue and Expenses - Operating revenue for Q1 2025 was $6.0 billion, flat year-over-year, with a 7% increase in revenue carloads and a 4% increase in freight revenue excluding fuel surcharge[5]. - Total operating expenses were flat at $3.7 billion, with productivity improvements offsetting volume-related costs and inflation[15]. - Freight revenue from intermodal shipments increased by 10% to $1.2 billion, while automotive freight revenue decreased by 5% to $581 million[16]. Operational Metrics - The operating ratio remained flat at 60.7%, impacted by lower fuel prices and a leap year, with a 90 basis point unfavorable effect[6]. - Quarterly freight car velocity improved by 6% to 215 daily miles per car, while workforce productivity increased by 9% to 1,091 car miles per employee[11]. - Average train speed decreased by 2% to 23.7 miles per hour in Q1 2025, down from 24.1 miles per hour in Q1 2024[21]. - Total revenue ton-miles increased by 3% to 104,011 million in Q1 2025, up from 101,265 million in Q1 2024[21]. - Average fuel price per gallon consumed decreased by 11% to $2.51 in Q1 2025, down from $2.81 in Q1 2024[21]. Capital and Investments - The capital plan for 2025 is set at $3.4 billion, with share repurchases expected to be between $4.0 billion and $4.5 billion[11]. - Capital investments rose to $906 million in Q1 2025, compared to $797 million in Q1 2024, reflecting a 13.7% increase[19]. Balance Sheet - Cash and cash equivalents increased to $1.4 billion as of March 31, 2025, up from $1.0 billion at the end of 2024[18]. - Total assets rose to $68.5 billion, compared to $67.7 billion at the end of 2024, with total liabilities increasing to $52.5 billion[18]. - Debt increased to $32,842 million as of March 31, 2025, from $31,192 million at the end of 2024[23]. - Adjusted debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio improved to 2.8 in Q1 2025, compared to 2.7 in Q4 2024[24]. Outlook - Union Pacific affirmed its 2025 outlook, targeting earnings per share growth consistent with a 3-year CAGR target of high-single to low-double digits[11].

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Core Viewpoint - Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) is expected to report first-quarter 2025 results on April 24, with earnings estimates showing a slight decline compared to previous forecasts, indicating potential challenges in the freight market and consumer demand [1][3]. Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2025 earnings is $2.73 per share, reflecting a 2.15% downward revision over the past 60 days, but a 1.5% increase from the previous year [1][2]. - Revenue estimates for the same period are projected at $6.09 billion, which is a 0.9% increase year-over-year [1]. Revenue Insights - Freight revenues are estimated at $5.7 billion, indicating a decline from fourth-quarter 2024 figures, while other revenues are expected to rise by 5.5% to $350.4 million [3]. Cost Management - The company’s cost-cutting measures are anticipated to positively impact its bottom line, with operating expenses expected to decrease by 0.4% year-over-year [4]. - The operating ratio is projected to improve by 60 basis points to 60.6%, suggesting enhanced operational efficiency [4]. Earnings Prediction Model - The current Earnings ESP for UNP is -0.05%, and it holds a Zacks Rank of 3, indicating that the model does not predict a definitive earnings beat for this quarter [5]. Previous Quarter Performance - In the fourth quarter of 2024, UNP reported earnings of $2.91 per share, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.78, with a year-over-year improvement of 7.4% due to operational efficiency and favorable pricing [7]. - Operating revenues for the fourth quarter were $6.12 billion, slightly below the consensus estimate, with a year-over-year decline of 0.6% attributed to lower fuel surcharge revenues and an unfavorable business mix [7].

In its upcoming report, Union Pacific (UNP) is predicted by Wall Street analysts to post quarterly earnings of $2.73 per share, reflecting an increase of 1.5% compared to the same period last year. Revenues are forecasted to be $6.09 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of 0.9%.Over the last 30 days, there has been a downward revision of 1.2% in the consensus EPS estimate for the quarter, leading to its current level. This signifies the covering analysts' collective reconsideration of their initi ...

Wall Street expects a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when Union Pacific (UNP) reports results for the quarter ended March 2025. While this widely-known consensus outlook is important in gauging the company's earnings picture, a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates.The earnings report, which is expected to be released on April 24, 2025, might help the stock move higher if these key numbers are better than expe ...