Core Insights - Union Pacific (NYSE:UNP) is expected to announce earnings on July 24, 2025, with historical trends indicating a pattern of negative one-day returns post-announcement [1][2] - Analysts project earnings of $2.90 per share and revenues of $6.15 billion for the upcoming quarter, reflecting growth from the previous year's earnings of $2.74 per share and revenues of $6.01 billion [2] - The company currently has a market capitalization of $136 billion, with $24 billion in revenue, $9.7 billion in operating profits, and a net income of $6.7 billion over the past twelve months, indicating strong operational profitability [3] Historical Performance - Over the last five years, Union Pacific's stock has experienced a decrease on the day following earnings announcements in 55% of cases, with a median drop of -2.4% and a maximum decline of -6.8% [1][6] - Positive one-day returns occurred approximately 45% of the time, with the median of positive returns being 2.1% and the median of negative returns being -2.4% [6] Trading Strategies - Traders may consider pre-earnings positioning based on historical odds and evaluate the relationship between immediate and medium-term returns post-earnings to guide their strategies [5][7] - A strategy involving the correlation between one-day and five-day returns can be employed, where a positive one-day return may lead to a long position for the subsequent five days [7]

Core Viewpoint - Analysts project that Union Pacific (UNP) will report quarterly earnings of $2.89 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 5.5%, with revenues expected to reach $6.11 billion, a 1.7% increase from the same quarter last year [1]. Earnings Estimates - Over the past 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate has been adjusted downward by 0.2%, indicating a reassessment by covering analysts [2]. - Changes in earnings estimates are crucial for predicting investor reactions, with empirical studies showing a strong relationship between earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock price performance [3]. Key Metrics Projections - Analysts estimate 'Freight Revenues- Bulk' will reach $1.83 billion, a year-over-year change of +6.1% [5]. - 'Operating Revenues- Other revenues' are expected to be $334.89 million, indicating a -9.2% change from the prior-year quarter [5]. - 'Freight Revenues- Industrial Products' is projected at $2.18 billion, reflecting a +2.6% change from the year-ago quarter [5]. - 'Freight Revenues- Premium' is expected to reach $1.73 billion, suggesting a -3.5% year-over-year change [6]. - The 'Operating Ratio' is projected at 59.5%, down from 60.0% in the same quarter last year [6]. - The consensus for 'Average revenue per car - Bulk' stands at $3700.32, slightly up from $3692.00 year-over-year [6]. - 'Revenue Carloads - Bulk' is expected to reach 493.75 thousand, compared to 466.00 thousand last year [7]. - 'Average revenue per car - Industrial Products' is projected at $3891.73, up from $3825.00 in the same quarter last year [7]. - 'Average revenue per car - Premium' is forecasted to be $1678.52, down from $1766.00 year-over-year [8]. - 'Revenue Carloads - Premium' is expected to reach 1.03 million, slightly up from 1.02 million last year [8]. - The total 'Revenue Carloads' is projected at 2.08 million, compared to 2.04 million in the same quarter last year [9]. Stock Performance - Over the past month, Union Pacific shares have returned +1.1%, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite has changed +5.4% [10]. - Currently, UNP holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting its performance may align with the overall market in the near future [10].

Core Insights - Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) is set to report its second-quarter 2025 results on July 24, with earnings estimated at $2.89 per share, reflecting a 5.47% increase year-over-year [1] - The revenue estimate for the same quarter is $6.11 billion, indicating a 1.7% rise from the previous year [1] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Q2 2025 earnings has been revised upward by 1.76% over the past 60 days [2] - The current earnings estimate for Q1 2025 is $2.89, while the previous estimates were $2.88 (7 days ago) and $2.84 (30 days ago) [2] - The average earnings surprise for UNP over the last four quarters is 1.18%, with two quarters exceeding estimates and two falling short [2] Revenue and Market Conditions - Freight revenues are expected to be $5.7 billion, showing a decline from Q1 2025 [4] - Other revenues are estimated at $339.8 million, representing a 1.1% increase from Q4 2024 [5] - The freight market downturn and a soft consumer market are anticipated to negatively impact margins and revenues in Q2 [4] Cost Management and Operational Efficiency - Cost-cutting measures are expected to support the bottom line, with operating expenses projected to decline compared to the previous year [6] - The operating ratio is expected to improve by 20 basis points to 60.2% in Q2 2025 [6] Shareholder Returns - Union Pacific is committed to rewarding shareholders, with a capital plan of $3.4 billion and share repurchases between $4 billion and $4.5 billion [7] - Strong free cash flow supports these shareholder-friendly initiatives [7] Earnings Prediction Model - The earnings prediction model indicates a potential earnings beat for Union Pacific, supported by a positive Earnings ESP of +0.50% and a Zacks Rank of 3 [8]

Union Pacific is in talks to acquire Norfolk Southern, The Wall Street Journal reported late Thursday, citing people familiar with the matter. The deal would merge companies with a combined market value of roughly $200 billion. https://t.co/iZkAunIl6w ...

Group 1 - Union Pacific is considering acquiring Norfolk Southern, which would be the largest merger in the U.S. railroad industry history, with a combined market value approaching $200 billion [1] - Norfolk Southern's stock rose by 4.31% in after-hours trading, while Union Pacific's stock increased by 0.5% [1] - The merger would create an integrated railroad network by combining Union Pacific's western network with Norfolk Southern's eastern routes, intensifying competition for CSX and BNSF [1] Group 2 - Speculation about large-scale mergers in the North American railroad industry has increased, with expectations that the government may favor industry consolidation during Trump's presidency [2] - Union Pacific's CEO expressed a desire for significant mergers but acknowledged the political and regulatory complexities involved [2] - Norfolk Southern's CFO also supported the merger, highlighting the need to address regulatory and political challenges [2]

Mergers and Acquisitions - Union Pacific is exploring a potential acquisition of Norfolk Southern [1] Industry Dynamics - The Wall Street Journal reported on Union Pacific's exploration of acquiring Norfolk Southern [1]

Exclusive: Union Pacific is in talks to acquire its smaller rival Norfolk Southern in what would be a megamerger in the railroad industry https://t.co/3yhe3dKNBM ...

Union Pacific is reportedly considering acquiring a rival railroad, sending shares of CSX and Norfolk Southern higher. https://t.co/ObiDpIWemr ...

Core Insights - Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) has approved a 3% increase in its quarterly cash dividend, raising it to $1.38 per share from $1.34, reflecting a commitment to enhance shareholder returns [1][4][9] - The dividend will be paid on September 30, 2025, to shareholders of record as of August 29, 2025, marking the 19th consecutive year of increased annual dividends per share [1][9] - In 2022, UNP paid dividends of $3.15 billion and repurchased shares worth $6.28 billion, while in 2023, dividends were $3.17 billion with share repurchases of $705 million [2] - For 2024, UNP rewarded shareholders with dividends of $3.21 billion and repurchased shares worth $1.51 billion, and in Q1 2025, dividends amounted to $804 million with share repurchases of $1.42 billion [2][9] - The long-term capital allocation strategy for 2025 includes a capital plan of $3.4 billion and share repurchases ranging from $4 billion to $4.5 billion [3] Industry Context - Other companies in the transportation sector, such as Ryder System, Delta Air Lines, and FedEx, have also announced dividend hikes in 2025, indicating a broader trend of rewarding shareholders within the industry [5][6][8][10] - Ryder System increased its quarterly dividend by 12%, while Delta Air Lines raised its dividend by 25%, showcasing confidence in their financial positions [6][8] - FedEx Corporation approved a 5.1% dividend hike, further emphasizing the trend of dividend increases among transportation companies [10][11]

Company Overview - Union Pacific (UNP) is anticipated to report a year-over-year earnings increase driven by higher revenues for the quarter ended June 2025, with a consensus outlook suggesting a positive earnings picture [1][2] - The earnings report is scheduled for release on July 24, and the actual results will significantly influence the stock price depending on whether they meet or exceed expectations [2] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate predicts quarterly earnings of $2.89 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 5.5% [3] - Expected revenues for the quarter are $6.11 billion, which is a 1.7% increase from the same quarter last year [3] Estimate Revisions - Over the past 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 0.22%, indicating a reassessment by analysts [4] - The Most Accurate Estimate for Union Pacific is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in a positive Earnings ESP of +0.50%, suggesting a bullish outlook from analysts [12] Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates that a positive Earnings ESP reading is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, especially when combined with a Zacks Rank of 1, 2, or 3 [10] - Union Pacific currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3, which, along with the positive Earnings ESP, suggests a likelihood of beating the consensus EPS estimate [12] Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Union Pacific was expected to post earnings of $2.73 per share but delivered $2.70, resulting in a surprise of -1.10% [13] - Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates two times [14] Industry Context - In comparison, CSX (CSX), another player in the Zacks Transportation - Rail industry, is expected to report earnings of $0.42 per share for the same quarter, indicating a year-over-year decline of 14.3% [18] - CSX's revenues are projected to be $3.58 billion, down 3.2% from the previous year, with a negative Earnings ESP of -0.21%, making it challenging to predict an earnings beat [19]