Core Insights - Baupost Group's latest 13F filing reveals a highly selective and concentrated portfolio, focusing on durable businesses with long-term cash generation potential [1][2] Investment Moves - **Restaurant Brands International (QSR)**: Increased by 4,203,300 shares to 8,252,862 shares, representing a $529.3 million position (11.05% of the portfolio). This is now Baupost's largest equity holding, indicating a belief in significant mispricing relative to its stable franchise model and cash flows [3][4] - **Elevance Health (ELV)**: Increased by 703,000 shares to 1,319,000 shares, totaling a $426.2 million position (8.90%). The increase suggests confidence in the company's predictable cash flows and resilience in a politically noisy sector [5][6] - **Union Pacific (UNP)**: Newly established position with 1,496,204 shares, valued at $353.7 million (7.38%). The railroad's high barriers to entry and pricing power align with Baupost's focus on downside protection [7][8] - **Alphabet (GOOG)**: Reduced by 775,850 shares to 1,858,138 shares, now a $452.6 million position (9.45%). The reduction reflects portfolio risk management rather than a loss of conviction [9] - **CRH plc (CRH)**: Trimmed by 442,000 shares to 3,383,395 shares, valued at $405.7 million (8.47%). The trim indicates a disciplined approach to valuation, despite the long-term thesis remaining intact [10] - **Full Exits**: Baupost exited several positions entirely, including Viasat, Liberty Broadband, ICON plc, and Amcor, signaling a shift in risk-reward balance [11][12] Strategic Focus - The quarter was characterized by conviction-driven capital redeployment into high-confidence ideas, particularly in sectors like restaurants, railroads, healthcare, and materials [13][14] - Trimming positions like GOOG and CRH reflects a focus on risk management and valuation discipline rather than a bearish outlook [15] - The top 10 positions account for over 75% of disclosed assets, emphasizing Baupost's belief in concentration as a strategy against ignorance [16] - The portfolio prioritizes downside protection, with upside driven by business durability rather than macroeconomic bets [17]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of returning to normalcy after the holiday season, indicating a preference for routine over the unpredictability of holiday schedules [1] - Leo Nelissen is identified as an analyst focusing on significant economic developments related to supply chains, infrastructure, and commodities, contributing to iREIT®+HOYA Capital [1] - The analysis aims to provide actionable investment ideas with a focus on dividend growth opportunities, highlighting the potential for income generation in the investment landscape [1]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of in-depth research on various income-generating investment vehicles such as REITs, mREITs, Preferreds, BDCs, MLPs, and ETFs [1] Group 1: Analyst Background - Leo Nelissen is identified as an analyst focusing on significant economic developments related to supply chains, infrastructure, and commodities [2] - He is a contributing author for iREIT®+HOYA Capital, aiming to provide insightful analysis and actionable investment ideas, particularly in dividend growth opportunities [2] Group 2: Analyst's Position - The analyst has disclosed a beneficial long position in shares of AM, UNP, RTX, and REXR through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives [3] - The article expresses the analyst's own opinions and indicates that no compensation is received for the article, aside from Seeking Alpha [3] Group 3: Disclosure Information - Seeking Alpha clarifies that past performance is not indicative of future results and does not provide recommendations or advice on investment suitability [4] - The views expressed may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole, and the analysts are third-party authors, including both professional and individual investors [4]

Core Insights - The article provides a market analysis focusing on the S&P 500 and various State Street ETFs, indicating trends and performance metrics in the financial sector [1] Group 1: S&P 500 Analysis - The S&P 500 index serves as a benchmark for the overall market performance, reflecting the health of the U.S. economy [1] - Recent movements in the S&P 500 suggest a correlation with macroeconomic indicators, impacting investor sentiment and market volatility [1] Group 2: State Street ETFs - The State Street® Financial Select Sector SPDR® ETF has shown significant performance, driven by key financial sector stocks [1] - The State Street® Industrial Select Sector SPDR® ETF reflects trends in industrial production and economic growth, indicating potential investment opportunities [1] - The State Street® Utilities Select Sector SPDR® ETF highlights the stability of utility stocks, appealing to risk-averse investors during market fluctuations [1]

Group 1 - Wall Street is preparing for another year of significant mergers and acquisitions (M&A), following a record-breaking 2025 with 68 transactions exceeding $10 billion each, indicating a resurgence of confidence in corporate boardrooms [1][4] - The average transaction size in 2025 reached approximately $227 million, the highest since 1980, with large deals being a key driver of market activity [2][4] - High-profile transactions included Netflix's $72 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery's studios and HBO Max, and a $72 billion merger between Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern, showcasing the scale of recent deals [2][4] Group 2 - Electronic Arts announced plans to go private in a $55 billion deal, reflecting the increasing role of private capital in major transactions [3][4] - Despite concerns regarding geopolitical risks and President Trump's tariff regime, dealmaking momentum remained strong, even during traditionally quiet periods, with expectations for continued activity into 2026 [3][5] - The record number of high-value deals in 2025 signifies a strong rebound in the M&A market post-pandemic, suggesting a positive outlook for 2026 [4]

Group 1: Mega-Deals Overview - In 2025, a record 68 mega-deals exceeding $10 billion were announced, marking the largest global M&A volume since the pandemic, indicating renewed confidence in corporate boardrooms [1][4] - The average deal size reached nearly $227 million, driven by a favorable regulatory climate and diminishing concerns over President Trump's tariff agenda [2] Group 2: Notable Transactions - Netflix announced a $72 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery's studios and HBO Max, which prompted a $77.9 billion hostile takeover bid from Paramount Skydance [5][10] - Union Pacific's $72 billion acquisition of Norfolk Southern aims to create a US transcontinental railroad, facing antitrust scrutiny [5] - Electronic Arts is going private in a $55 billion deal, highlighting the increasing influence of private capital in major transactions [6] - Kimberly-Clark agreed to acquire Kenvue for $40 billion, reflecting the urgency among companies to secure assets amid rising demand [7] Group 3: Market Trends and Future Outlook - There is a growing perception that failing to act quickly risks losing valuable assets, with corporate leaders feeling pressured to make timely decisions [8] - The market is expected to see an increase in corporate spinoffs and crypto-related acquisitions, alongside a rise in capital flow from sovereign-wealth funds, particularly from the Middle East [11]

Group 1 - Union Pacific Corporation will release its fourth quarter 2025 financial and operating results on January 27, 2026, at 7:45 a.m. ET [1] - A conference call and live webcast will be hosted by the company's management team at 8:45 a.m. ET on the same day [1] - Interested parties can participate via teleconference by dialing 877-407-8293 for domestic calls and 201-689-8349 for international calls [2] Group 2 - Union Pacific operates in 23 western states, providing safe, reliable, and efficient service to connect customers and communities to the global economy [3] - The company emphasizes that trains are the most environmentally responsible way to move freight, contributing to sustainability for future generations [3] - More information about Union Pacific can be found on their official website [3]

Group 1: M&A Market Overview - Global mergers and acquisitions (M&A) surged in 2025, reaching approximately $4.5 trillion, which is about 50% above 2024 levels and the second-largest annual total on record [1] - The deal boom in 2025 was characterized by a high value of cash transactions, with 68 deals worth at least $10 billion, marking the highest number of megadeals in recent years [2][3] Group 2: Notable Megadeals - The largest deal involved a bidding war between Paramount and Netflix for Warner Bros. Discovery, with Netflix's equity value at $72 billion and Paramount's revised bid at $108.4 billion [4] - The second-largest deal was an $88.26 billion rail merger between Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern, announced in July [5] - Electronic Arts (EA) shareholders approved a $55 billion sale to a consortium led by Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund, marking a record-setting leveraged buyout in the gaming industry [5] - Kimberly-Clark's acquisition of Kenvue, valued at $40 billion, was the fourth largest deal, involving a consumer health company known for various well-known brands [6] - The fifth largest deal was the $40 billion acquisition of Aligned Data Centers by a consortium led by BlackRock's Global Infrastructure Partners, marking the largest data center transaction on record [7]

A rail workers' union on Monday opposed Union Pacific's proposed $85 billion acquisition of Norfolk Southern , warning that the deal could undermine safety and impact the workforce. ...

It’s been just over 11 months since I suggested to readers that Union Pacific Corporation ( UNP ) is less compelling than Treasuries in an article with the incredibly original title “Union Pacific: Less Compelling Than Treasuries.” Since then, the shares have returned aboutI'm a quant investment newsletter writer who marries fundamental analysis with the latest research in momentum. Over the past few years, I’ve developed a piece of software that helps me track the level of optimism and pessimism embedded i ...