Company Performance - Walmart's stock closed at $89.76, reflecting a +1.05% increase from the previous day, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 0.67% [1] - Over the past month, Walmart's stock has decreased by 6.47%, which is better than the Retail-Wholesale sector's decline of 6.91% but worse than the S&P 500's loss of 5.28% [1] Upcoming Earnings - Walmart is expected to report earnings of $0.59 per share, indicating a year-over-year decline of 1.67%, with projected revenue of $165.92 billion, representing a 2.73% growth compared to the same quarter last year [2] - For the entire fiscal year, earnings are estimated at $2.63 per share and revenue at $703.77 billion, reflecting increases of +4.78% and +3.35% respectively from the previous year [3] Analyst Estimates - Recent changes in analyst estimates for Walmart suggest a favorable outlook on the company's business health and profitability [4] - The consensus EPS projection has decreased by 0.21% in the past 30 days, and Walmart currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [6] Valuation Metrics - Walmart is trading with a Forward P/E ratio of 33.81, significantly higher than the industry average of 13.07, indicating a premium valuation [7] - The company has a PEG ratio of 4.72, compared to the Retail - Supermarkets industry average PEG ratio of 2.18, suggesting a higher expected earnings growth trajectory relative to its price [8] Industry Context - The Retail - Supermarkets industry, part of the Retail-Wholesale sector, has a Zacks Industry Rank of 149, placing it in the bottom 41% of over 250 industries [9]

Core Insights - The stocks of Amazon, Walmart, and Target fell over 10% last month due to market concerns over tariff discussions, with the S&P 500 dropping 5% in March [1][2] - Target experienced the largest decline at 16%, struggling with decreased discretionary spending and profitability, while Amazon and Walmart, despite their declines, have other business segments that may mitigate tariff impacts [3][4] Company Performance - Target's comparable sales increased by 1% in fiscal 2025, but its earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 19%, indicating ongoing challenges in generating sales and profitability [3] - Amazon's sales growth was driven by a 19% increase in AWS sales, contributing to an overall company sales growth of 11% [4] - Walmart's sales increased by 5.1% in fiscal 2025, with EPS up 13%, benefiting from its strong grocery segment and e-commerce growth [5] Investment Opportunities - All three companies are viewed as potential additions to investment portfolios, with Amazon offering exposure to AI and e-commerce, Walmart as a solid value play, and Target as a turnaround opportunity [6] - Currently, Amazon and Target stocks are trading at discounts to their average P/E ratios, while Walmart is not considered cheap by its historical standards [7] Market Outlook - Despite short-term disturbances due to economic volatility, all companies are expected to absorb tariff impacts and potentially rebound strongly in the long term [8][9]

Group 1: Walmart's Pricing Strategy - Walmart is urging suppliers in China to reduce prices by up to 10% to offset new tariffs, despite recent discussions with the Chinese government [1][2] - The company's insistence on price cuts reflects the lengths U.S. firms are willing to go to mitigate the impact of tariffs, especially with new reciprocal tariffs expected to be introduced [2][3] - Negotiations between Walmart and suppliers are conducted on a product-by-product basis, with some manufacturers struggling to meet the price reduction demands [3] Group 2: Consumer Spending Trends - Research indicates a significant divide in consumer financial management, with some individuals being planners and others being reactors [4][5] - The proportion of consumers identifying as planners has decreased to 40% in January 2025, a drop of approximately 20% since February 2024, indicating increased financial strain [6] - Notably, among high earners (those making at least $100,000), the number of planners has decreased by 25% since February 2024, suggesting that even affluent individuals are experiencing financial pressures [6][7]

Dublin, April 01, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The "Hypermarkets in the US" report has been added to ResearchAndMarkets.com's offering. Consumer perceptions of value and convenience when it comes to hypermarkets in the US translated to positive, albeit low, current value growth in 2024. Walmart continued to account for the largest share of outlets by far in this channel. With such a high store density, and its strength in grocery retail, it is unsurprising that the retailer led the channel in terms of value sha ...

Core Viewpoint - Walmart's stock has experienced a significant decline from its all-time high, raising questions about its valuation and future growth potential [1][2][9]. Financial Performance - Walmart reported total revenue of $648.1 billion for fiscal 2025, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 5.6% [3]. - In Q4, U.S. comparable sales rose by 4.6%, with e-commerce sales growing by 20% [4]. - Global advertising sales increased by 29% year over year in Q4, surpassing the full-year growth rate [4]. - Adjusted earnings per share for the most recent quarter were $0.66, up from $0.60 in the previous year [5]. Profitability and Growth Outlook - Operating income increased by 8.3%, or 9.4% when adjusted for currency fluctuations [5]. - For fiscal 2026, management anticipates net sales growth of 3% to 4% and adjusted operating income growth of 3.5% to 5.5%, indicating a slowdown from previous growth rates [6]. Market and Economic Conditions - Broader macroeconomic factors such as higher interest rates, inflation, and consumer spending concerns may impact Walmart's growth [7]. - The company is positioned to benefit from its value-based retail model during economic downturns, but potential new tariffs could affect costs and margins [7][8]. Valuation Concerns - Despite a recent stock price decline, Walmart's shares still trade at a price-to-earnings multiple of 35, which is significantly higher than the S&P 500's multiple of about 22 [9]. - Current valuation, combined with cautious financial guidance and macroeconomic challenges, suggests that this may not be an optimal entry point for investors [10].

Core Insights - The report highlights the contrasting growth trajectories of Amazon and Walmart, with Amazon gaining market share through discretionary spending while Walmart remains focused on essential goods [2][4] - Consumer behavior is shifting towards convenience-driven purchasing, favoring Amazon's online experience and Prime membership [5][6] Market Share Dynamics - Amazon's market share in total U.S. retail spending reached 10.7% in Q4 2024, a 25% increase from the previous quarter, while Walmart's share remained stable at around 7.4% [4][6] - Amazon accounted for 3 out of 10 purchases in electronics and appliances during the last three months of 2024, indicating a broadening of its market share beyond just a few categories [5][6] Category Performance - In health and beauty, Amazon's share increased to 6.8% in 2024, matching Walmart's, and surpassed it in Q4 [6][7] - Amazon captured 16.2% of clothing and apparel spending in 2024, while Walmart's share declined to 6.4% [6][7] Grocery Market Insights - Amazon's grocery market share grew to 2.7% in 2024, up from 2.3% the previous year, indicating a gradual erosion of Walmart's dominance in this category [8] - eCommerce accounted for 86% of Amazon's total sales in 2024, amounting to $733.2 billion, contrasting with less than 5% of Walmart's $559.1 billion in total U.S. retail sales coming from online channels [8] Seasonal Spending Trends - Amazon's consumer spending growth during the holiday season has been consistent, increasing from 6% in Q4 2019 to 10.7% in Q4 2024, while Walmart did not experience a similar spike [8]

Group 1 - Concerns about a consumer slowdown are impacting the retail sector in 2025, with the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) down nearly 12% year to date, including dividends [1] - The performance of the S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) is also relevant in the context of the retail sector's struggles [1]

Core Viewpoint - Walmart's stock is experiencing a decline due to a broader downturn in the retail sector, influenced by a significant drop in the Consumer Confidence Index, which has reached a four-year low [1][2]. Economic Context - As the largest retailer globally, Walmart is highly sensitive to consumer spending trends, but its low-price reputation may provide some resilience during economic downturns [2]. - The Consumer Confidence Index fell by 7.2 points to 92.9, with the expectations index dropping 9.6 points to 65.2, indicating a notable decline in consumer sentiment, particularly among older consumers and those earning less than $125,000 annually [4]. Company Performance - Walmart's stock was down 2.9% following the news, while the SPDR S&P Retail ETF decreased by 1.1%, and Target's stock fell by 3.4% [2]. - Despite the current economic pressures, Walmart has shown strong growth over the past two years, but cautious guidance for 2025 suggests potential challenges ahead [5]. Future Outlook - While Walmart is expected to endure a recession in the long term, its current valuation is higher than historical levels, which may lead to further stock declines if economic conditions worsen [6]. - Management remains confident in navigating macroeconomic uncertainties, but investors should anticipate continued stock reactions to economic news [6].

Core Insights - Retail sales in 2024 remained strong, with Walmart and Costco achieving significant market share gains, driven by improvements in e-commerce and in-store sales [1][5] - Walmart and Costco's stock prices have surged, trading 81% and 98% higher than at the start of 2023, outperforming the S&P 500 [2] - Amazon, while growing at a slower rate in online sales, continues to dominate the e-commerce market and has improved profitability significantly [6][7] Company Performance - Walmart and Costco both reported over 20% year-over-year growth in U.S. e-commerce sales, contributing to strong same-store sales growth [5] - Amazon's North America segment achieved an operating margin of 6.4% in 2024, up from 4.2% in 2023, while Walmart and Costco reported margins of 5.2% and 3.7% respectively [7][8] - Amazon's international segment turned from an operating loss to $3.8 billion in operating income last year, showcasing improved profitability [8] Competitive Advantages - Amazon's logistics overhaul has reduced costs and improved delivery speed, enhancing its competitive edge [9] - The growth of Amazon's retail media advertising business, which saw an 18% increase in sales to $17.3 billion, contributes to its high-margin revenue [10] - Amazon Web Services (AWS) generated over $100 billion in revenue with a 37% operating margin, significantly boosting overall profitability [12] Valuation and Growth Potential - Amazon's stock is currently priced at about 30 times forward earnings, making it cheaper than Walmart at 32 times and Costco at 50 times [15] - Amazon's earnings per share are projected to grow by 15% this year, compared to 9% for Costco and 5% for Walmart, indicating stronger growth potential [16] - Analysts expect Amazon's earnings growth to accelerate to 20% by 2026, driven by investments in AWS [17]

Core Insights - Walmart's stock has dropped nearly 20% from its all-time high in February, prompting a review of its earnings results and outlook to assess investment potential [2] - The company reported $180.6 billion in revenue for fiscal Q4 2025, a 4.1% year-over-year increase, but net income decreased from $5.7 billion to $5.3 billion [3][4] - Walmart's management remains cautiously optimistic for fiscal year 2026, projecting net sales growth of 3% to 4% and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) between $2.50 and $2.60, indicating little to no growth from fiscal year 2025's EPS of $2.51 [9] Financial Performance - Walmart's revenue for fiscal Q4 2025 was $180.6 billion, a 4.1% increase year-over-year, while net income fell from $5.7 billion to $5.3 billion [3] - The company faced higher costs of sales (up 3.3% year-over-year) and increased operating expenses (up 6.5% year-over-year), attributed to growing e-commerce sales [4] - Walmart's e-commerce sales now account for 18% of net sales, which are more costly than traditional stores [4] Capital Allocation - Walmart returns approximately half of its profits to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases [5] - The company has a strong dividend history, being a "Dividend King" with a recent 13% increase in its quarterly payout to $0.235 per share, resulting in an annual yield of 1.1% [6] - In fiscal year 2025, Walmart allocated $4.5 billion to share repurchases, with $12 billion remaining under its current repurchase program [7] Growth Drivers - Management believes that membership growth with Walmart+, Sam's Club, and its advertising business will drive future growth [10] - "Membership and other income" segments grew from $5.5 billion in fiscal year 2024 to $6.5 billion in fiscal year 2025, a 17.5% increase [10] - The global advertising segment increased by 27% year-over-year to approximately $4.4 billion [10] Valuation and Debt - Walmart currently trades at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 35.6, above its five-year median of 31, indicating a premium valuation [12] - The company carries $30 billion in net debt, which cost $2.3 billion to service in fiscal year 2025, although it has reduced net debt by 25% over the past three years [12] - Despite high valuation and sluggish earnings growth, Walmart's dividend longevity makes it a solid long-term hold for income-seeking investors [13]