30 Jun 2025 10:19:53 ET │ 12 pages Xinyi Solar (0968.HK) Solar Glass Industry Supply Cut amid Weak Demand; 1H25E Result Preview Flash | China Solar Sector Air MaAC CITI'S TAKE The market talked about a 30% production cut by PRC solar glass makers in July to avoid the intense competition today (see: SMM), triggered by weakening demand, high inventory level and low solar glass prices. We view the coming supply cut to be a voluntary move by solar glass companies under operating pressure with weak demand outloo ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Hold" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 3.06 per share, indicating a potential upside of 19% from the current price of HKD 2.57 [5][10]. Core Insights - Weak terminal demand is putting pressure on photovoltaic glass prices, which have declined significantly in recent weeks. The average price for 2.0mm photovoltaic glass fell from HKD 13-13.5 per square meter to below HKD 12, while 3.2mm glass prices dropped from HKD 22-22.5 to below HKD 21. As of early June, inventory days reached 29.72, indicating substantial inventory pressure. The industry's gross margin has hit a record low of approximately -9.47% due to multiple factors including the end of the 430/531 rush, declining demand, and inventory pressure [2][7][8]. - The company plans to increase its nominal capacity to 32,200 tons per day by the end of 2024, with actual production capacity at 23,200 tons per day. However, the planned addition of 4,000 tons in 2025 may be delayed due to current market conditions, which could pressure profitability in 2025. The expectation is for supply-demand improvement and a return to rational pricing in 2025 [3][8]. - The company intends to issue a REIT for its solar power plants, which will help improve cash flow by locking in returns from high-subsidy projects. This REIT model will also mitigate future risks associated with electricity price fluctuations [4][9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue is projected to decline from RMB 24,164 million in FY2023 to RMB 21,921 million in FY2024, before recovering to RMB 22,702 million in FY2025. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to drop sharply from RMB 3,843 million in FY2023 to RMB 1,008 million in FY2024, before rebounding to RMB 2,101 million in FY2025 [6][14]. - The basic earnings per share are forecasted to decrease from 43.17 cents in FY2023 to 11.27 cents in FY2024, then increase to 23.15 cents in FY2025. The price-to-earnings ratio at the current price of HKD 2.57 is estimated at 20.9 for FY2024 and 10.2 for FY2025 [6][14]. Market Position - The company is positioned as a leading player in the photovoltaic glass industry, benefiting from supply chain management, economies of scale, and technological advantages. This positions the company to further differentiate its profitability from second and third-tier competitors [7][8].

Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's revenue was RMB 21,921.4 million, a decrease of 9.3% compared to 2023[9]. - Profit attributable to equity holders dropped by 73.8% to RMB 1,008.2 million in 2024[9]. - Basic earnings per share for 2024 were RMB 0.1127, down from RMB 0.4317 in 2023[9]. - The gross profit decreased from RMB 6,466.2 million in 2023 to RMB 3,473.1 million in 2024, a decline of 46.3%, with the overall gross margin dropping to 15.8%[40]. - The net profit attributable to equity holders decreased by 73.8% from RMB 3,842.8 million in 2023 to RMB 1,008.2 million in 2024[51]. - EBITDA decreased by 38.2% from RMB 7,107.5 million in 2023 to RMB 4,392.8 million in 2024, with an EBITDA margin of 20.0%[51]. - Cash generated from operating activities decreased significantly from RMB 5,305.0 million in 2023 to RMB 1,235.1 million in 2024[53]. - Other income decreased from RMB 336.4 million in 2023 to RMB 273.9 million in 2024, a reduction of RMB 62.5 million[43]. - Administrative and other operating expenses decreased by 6.6% from RMB 1,091.5 million in 2023 to RMB 1,019.3 million in 2024[46]. - Financial costs increased from RMB 348.7 million in 2023 to RMB 432.1 million in 2024, primarily due to higher average bank borrowings[48]. Market and Industry Trends - China's newly installed photovoltaic capacity grew by 28.3% to 277.57 GW in 2024, with large-scale ground-mounted projects accounting for 159.39 GW[11]. - The global photovoltaic installation growth rate slowed down in 2024 compared to 2023, with major markets like the EU showing signs of contraction[10]. - The solar industry is undergoing a significant cyclical adjustment, leading to a wave of consolidation and mergers due to financial difficulties among less efficient companies[13]. - The solar industry faces challenges with declining product prices across the supply chain, necessitating capacity reductions to stabilize market prices and improve overall profitability[23]. - The average selling price of solar glass products significantly declined due to supply-demand imbalance and intense competition[9][13]. Business Operations - The company experienced a sales volume increase in its solar glass business, despite a decrease in gross margin[9]. - In 2024, the solar glass business achieved a sales volume increase of 9.6% year-on-year, despite a significant decline in revenue and gross profit by 11.9% and 60.5% respectively due to falling average selling prices[17]. - The actual number of new production lines for solar glass was reduced from six (daily melting capacity of 6,400 tons) to four (daily melting capacity of 4,400 tons) in 2024, with total production capacity decreasing from 27,000 tons/day to 23,200 tons/day by December 31, 2024[16]. - The cumulative approved grid-connected capacity of solar power projects reached 6,244 MW by December 31, 2024, with 5,841 MW from large ground-mounted projects[19]. - The company completed the sale of solar power projects with a total capacity of 860 MW to Xinyi Energy in 2024, enhancing operational funding for project development[18]. - The company is actively seeking potential solar power projects and conducting feasibility studies, despite slowing down new project construction due to increased uncertainty in investment returns[18]. Financial Strategy and Capital Structure - The company applied for the issuance of up to RMB 3 billion in Panda bonds to optimize its capital structure and enhance financial liquidity, with approval received on March 12, 2025[20]. - The proportion of RMB bank loans increased from 33.8% at the end of 2023 to 84.3% by the end of 2024, improving financial liquidity[22]. - The net debt ratio rose to 31.0% in 2024 from 17.5% in 2023, attributed to increased borrowings and reduced cash[53]. Corporate Governance - The company has adopted the Corporate Governance Code as per the Hong Kong Stock Exchange Listing Rules for the year ending December 31, 2024[74]. - The board consists of four executive directors, two non-executive directors, and three independent non-executive directors, ensuring a diverse governance structure[75]. - The company emphasizes the importance of good corporate governance to ensure compliance with applicable laws and regulations[74]. - The board is responsible for preventing fraud and safeguarding the company's assets while formulating overall business strategies[75]. - The company has a strong focus on risk management and internal control systems to align corporate values with its culture[74]. Environmental and Social Responsibility - The group has invested in various solar power projects to reduce fossil fuel consumption and carbon dioxide emissions, improving air quality and the environment[130]. - Environmental measures include using natural gas as the primary energy source for glass furnaces and recycling waste glass in the production process[129]. - The environmental, social, and governance (ESG) report for the year ending December 31, 2024, will be published simultaneously with the annual report[131]. Employee and Compensation - The group has approximately 9,645 full-time employees as of December 31, 2024, with 8,211 in mainland China and 1,434 in other regions[62]. - Total employee costs, including director remuneration, amounted to RMB 1,279.8 million for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024[62]. - The company maintains competitive compensation and benefits for employees, with regular reviews based on performance and overall company performance[62]. Share Options and Incentives - A total of 18,700,000 stock options were granted during the year ending December 31, 2024[157]. - The fair value of stock options granted under the 2014 stock option plan is estimated at approximately HKD 39,622,000[157]. - The exercise price of the stock options granted on March 28, 2024, is HKD 6.15, with a share price of HKD 5.99 at the time of grant[158]. - The stock options granted are subject to performance targets set by the board of directors[159]. - The company has established a standard employee performance assessment system to evaluate contributions to the group[159].

截至 630，公司光伏玻璃产能 29000 吨。上半年点火了芜湖两条 1000 吨产线和 马来西亚一条 1200 吨产线，预计下半年会再点两条芜湖和一条马来西亚。其中 马来产线预计于 8 月上旬点火，芜湖两条产线已经具备点火条件，但要视市况 决定何时点火。全年融化量目标从年初的 1060.3 万吨下调到 984.9 万吨（同比 +25.6%）。马来新线点火后，会适时考虑老先何时冷修。 财务 公司持续将贷款从外币切换到人民币，人民币贷款比例从去年底的 34%上升到 45%，有效降低了利息支出。未来会继续减少港币贷款并转为人民币贷款。 产能 政策大致的方向是工信部按每个省份的供需情况有个大概的分类，有些过剩的 省份直接高风险，其它有空间的省份把主动权下放到省里，但后续还是要上报 工信部备案。总量的把控仍在工信部，产能政策肯定是趋紧的态势。 信义光能 1H24 业绩会纪要 截至 630，公司账上现金 23.6 亿港币，银行授信额度约 176.6 亿港币，其中 44.3%（78.3 亿港币）仍未动用。 公司在云南和江西都有项目储备，曲靖两条线和上饶三条 1200 吨线都已经获 批。海外方面则有已公布的印尼项目。预计明 ...

目前产量其实如果从市场上的消息大家应该也有了解到是主电厂在东南亚的产能在6月份的时候其实已经有一些向下的一些调整所以我们看到的是说在主电厂东南亚产能向下调整的时候其实美国就是北美本土的需求也包括像亚洲一些土耳其啊等一些地区或像印度这些地方的需求其实在往上走 关键对于我们来说确实需要等到这个关税最终落地看它的税率是多少这是第一个要等的东西第二个就是说其实如果这个关税政策本质上没有影响到美国的中端需求的情况下它不会从全面的角度它不会影响到我们东南亚的光复玻璃的需求 因为这么说吧,你这个组件产品最终要销亡美国,无论它在美国产,亚洲其他地方产,还是像以前那样,东南亚产,它还是消灭一片玻璃。而对比起全球能够外供玻璃的除了东南亚,是中国。 因为印度也有光伏玻璃厂但是印度还在进口光伏玻璃也就是说其实它本地的光伏玻璃厂还不能够完全满足本地的需求所以在这个情况下其实要么选东南亚要么选中国其实没有第三个可以选择的所以无论那一片土地在哪里住 它其实影响的只是一个艺术的影响,就是说我们可能之前是运的比较近一点的,现在我们运的远一点,可能直接运到北美,运到土耳其等地方,但是本身对于我们 它一不存在着需求端的影响第二它会不会存在利润端的 ...

本次电话会议仅服务于新业证券客户会议音频及文字记录的内容版权为新业证券所有内容必须经新业证券审核后方可留存未经允许和授权转载转发此次会议内容均属侵权新业证券将保留追究其法律责任的权利电话会议所有参会人员不得泄露内幕信息以及未公开重要信息涉及外部嘉宾发言的 商业证券不保障其发言内容的准确性与完整性商业证券不承担外部嘉宾发言内容所引起的任何损失及责任不承担因转载转发引起的任何损失及责任市场有风险投资需谨慎提醒投资者注意投资风险审慎参考会议内容 好的谢谢慧祝你各位投资人大家下午好我是信息证券海外团队的张忠业欢迎大家参加今天的清一光轮小范围交流我们今天邀请到的嘉宾是公司的IID谢总我们今天的交流也是分为两个部分首先请谢总来简单介绍一下公司的一个近况然后我们再进入更大环节 谢谢张总今天的邀请,也谢谢各位投资者今天来出席策略会议。我们在6月初的时候刚点了一条马来西亚的1200吨产线,所以目前这一刻 2017千吨的这么一个规模那么还有三条这个原计划是在今年投产的产线应该也会是大体的计划是不会变的所以我们今年的这个金正海这六条产线合计6400吨的这么一个容量 那么剩下的三条大概率是在六七八月去做一个点火还有两条是在安徽省的吴 ...

然后今天也是我们的中期策略会的一个线上公司交流的主题然后我们也很荣幸的邀请到新一光能来给大家简单介绍一下近期整个光复产业链包括玻璃这一块的市场变化然后可能包括公司的一个近况也可以做一个交流跟解读然后我们还是邀请到大家的老朋友公司的正代谢总Tennis来给大家交流最近的一个情况然后我们的会议流程因为 大家对公司也都普遍比较熟悉了我们就直接这个进入QA环节然后可能就是我这边先带大家提一些这个近期可能大家比较关注的行业跟公司的问题Candice能听见吗可以啊谢谢东平谢谢大家今天来参后谢谢好的好的那Candice我这边就直接提问吧就是我们这个 首先来说是目前来看二季度其实4到5月份玻璃的价格其实还是不错的然后到5月下旬包括6月的新单价格其实都有一些回调然后首先想问一下您怎么看我们的二季度的整体的公司的盈利同环比的一个或者行业的公司的盈利同环比的一个趋势然后包括我们现在这个时间点的盈利情况大概在一个什么样的风力值上 其实因为我们本身公司是没有一个技术的这么一个盈利的报告就是业绩报告所以其实我们按照港交所的规定其实也不太方便的去过多的评论我们的盈利的状况 那我们只能说从这个市场上其实大家能看到这个一季度有其他的友商他是有 ...