Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported fourth quarter Adjusted EBITDA of $312 million and adjusted diluted EPS of $0.88, with Adjusted EBITDA increasing by 11% and adjusted EPS increasing by 18% year-over-year when excluding real estate gains [4][12] - Total company revenue increased by 5% year-over-year to $2 billion, with LTL segment revenue at $1.2 billion, up 1% from last year [11][12] - The adjusted operating ratio in LTL improved by 180 basis points year-over-year, significantly outperforming normal seasonal patterns [18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In North American LTL, adjusted operating income was $181 million, up 14% from the prior year, with a margin expansion of 590 basis points since 2022 [4][12] - The company achieved a yield growth of 6% excluding fuel for the full year, with revenue per shipment improving for every quarter over the last three years [7][18] - In Europe, revenue increased by 11% year-over-year, with adjusted EBITDA rising by 19% [18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Shipments per day in LTL declined by 1.6%, with tonnage per day down 4.5%, reflecting ongoing softness in the industrial sector [16] - Local shipments now represent approximately 25% of revenue, up from 20% a few years ago, while premium services account for about 12% of revenue, up from less than 10% previously [16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company focuses on enhancing customer service, reducing damages, and improving service quality, which has led to higher prices and market share gains [5][6] - Investments in network capacity ahead of the upcycle have created over 30% excess door capacity, allowing for efficient operations and quick responses to demand recovery [6][9] - The company aims to improve its LTL operating ratio into the 70s over the coming years through pricing growth, capacity investment, and cost efficiency initiatives [9][10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in entering 2026 from a position of strength, with expectations for significant free cash flow generation and increased share repurchases [10][15] - The company anticipates another strong year for margin improvement and earnings growth in 2026, with expectations for adjusted operating ratio improvement of 100-150 basis points [30][66] - Management noted that while underlying demand indicators are improving, company-specific initiatives have significantly contributed to recent performance [24][40] Other Important Information - The company ended the quarter with $310 million in cash and total liquidity of $910 million, with a net leverage ratio of 2.4 times trailing 12 months Adjusted EBITDA [14][15] - The company expects total gross capital expenditures of $500-$600 million for 2026, with a focus on maintaining a balance between capital investment and shareholder returns [15][68] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on January performance and future trends - Management noted that January tonnage was flat year-over-year, with a slight increase in shipments, outperforming normal seasonality despite a winter storm impact [23][24] Question: Full-year margin improvement expectations - Management expects 100-150 basis points of operating ratio improvement for the full year, driven by above-market yield growth and cost efficiencies [30][66] Question: Local account penetration and growth - The company has added approximately 10,000 new local accounts, with current local customer representation at 25% of the total book, aiming for 30% over the next few years [33] Question: Cost efficiency and productivity targets - Management indicated expectations for low single-digit productivity improvements in 2026, with potential upside based on ongoing AI initiatives [41][42] Question: Pricing and yield expectations in an upcycle - Management anticipates mid- to high single-digit pricing increases in an upcycle, with a double-digit pricing opportunity to capture through various initiatives [78][79]

分组1 - XPO reported quarterly earnings of $0.88 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.76 per share, but down from $0.89 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of +16.25% [1] - The company achieved revenues of $2.01 billion for the quarter ended December 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3.47% and up from $1.92 billion year-over-year [2] - XPO has outperformed the S&P 500 with a 32.1% increase in shares since the beginning of the year, compared to the S&P 500's gain of 0.5% [3] 分组2 - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.79 on revenues of $2 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $4.27 on revenues of $8.36 billion [7] - The Transportation - Truck industry, to which XPO belongs, is currently ranked in the bottom 5% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating potential challenges for stock performance [8] - Another trucking company, Saia, is expected to report quarterly earnings of $1.90 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decline of -33.1%, with revenues projected at $780.61 million, down 1.1% from the previous year [9][10]

Investor Overview Q4 2025 February 2026 Forward-looking statements This document includes forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, including statements relating to our full year 2026 expectations of gross capex, interest expense, pension income, adjusted effective tax rate, and diluted share count, and future financial targets of North American LTL revenue CAGR, adjusted EBITDA ...

Core Insights - XPO reported fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of 88 cents, exceeding the consensus estimate by 12 cents but falling 1 cent short of the previous year's result [1] - Consolidated revenue reached $2.01 billion, marking a 4.7% year-over-year increase and surpassing the consensus estimate of $1.95 billion [1] Financial Performance - The less-than-truckload (LTL) unit generated revenue of $1.17 billion, reflecting a 0.8% year-over-year increase, consistent with management's guidance [2] - Tonnage in the LTL segment decreased by 4.5% year-over-year, aligning with guidance expectations [2] - Revenue per hundredweight (yield) increased by 5.2% year-over-year, excluding fuel surcharges, which is in line with prior guidance [2] - Adjusted EBITDA for the consolidated segment was $299 million, up 11.2% year-over-year [2] - The adjusted operating ratio for the LTL unit improved to 84.4%, a 180 basis point enhancement year-over-year [3] European Transportation Segment - XPO's European transportation segment reported a revenue increase of 10.6% year-over-year, totaling $846 million [4] - Adjusted EBITDA for this segment rose by 18.5% year-over-year to $32 million [4] Market Reaction - Shares of XPO declined by 1.4% in pre-market trading following the earnings report [4]

Financial Performance - For Q4 2025, XPO reported total revenue of $2.01 billion, a 4.7% increase from $1.92 billion in Q4 2024[7] - Net income for Q4 2025 was $59 million, down 22.4% from $76 million in Q4 2024[8] - Adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) for Q4 2025 was $0.88, a decrease of 1.1% from $0.89 in Q4 2024[9] - Revenue for Q4 2025 was $2,011 million, a 4.7% increase from $1,921 million in Q4 2024[26] - Net income decreased by 22.4% to $59 million in Q4 2025 from $76 million in Q4 2024[26] - Basic earnings per share for Q4 2025 was $0.50, down from $0.65 in Q4 2024[26] - Operating income for the year was $656 million, a marginal decrease of 0.6% from $660 million in 2024[26] - Adjusted net income for Q4 2025 was $105 million, compared to $107 million in Q4 2024; for the full year, adjusted net income was $445 million, down from $460 million in 2024[53] Segment Performance - The North American Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) segment generated revenue of $1.17 billion, up 0.8% from $1.16 billion in Q4 2024[11] - The European Transportation segment reported revenue of $846 million, a 10.6% increase from $765 million in Q4 2024[13] - The adjusted operating income for the North American LTL segment increased by 13.8% year-over-year to $181 million[11] - Revenue for the European Transportation segment increased by 10.6% to $846 million for the three months ended December 31, 2025, compared to $765 million in 2024[41] - Operating income for the European Transportation segment was a loss of $13 million for the three months ended December 31, 2025, compared to a loss of $11 million in 2024[41] Cash Flow and Assets - Cash flow from operating activities for Q4 2025 was $226 million, with year-end cash and cash equivalents totaling $310 million[10] - Cash flows from operating activities rose to $986 million in 2025, compared to $808 million in 2024[32] - Total assets increased to $8,194 million in 2025 from $7,712 million in 2024, reflecting a growth of 6.3%[30] - The company’s total equity increased to $1,861 million in 2025 from $1,601 million in 2024[30] Costs and Expenses - The company incurred restructuring costs of $33 million in Q4 2025, a significant increase of 230% from $10 million in Q4 2024[26] - The company reported a 65.5% increase in insurance and claims expenses, rising to $48 million in Q4 2025 from $29 million in Q4 2024[26] - Restructuring costs increased by 2000.0% to $21 million for the three months ended December 31, 2025, compared to $1 million in 2024[45] - The company incurred transaction and integration costs of $1 million in Q4 2025, down from $14 million in Q4 2024; for the full year, these costs were $8 million compared to $53 million in 2024[53] EBITDA and Margins - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2025 was $312 million, reflecting a 3.0% increase from $303 million in Q4 2024[9] - Adjusted EBITDA for the three months ended December 31, 2025, was $285 million, reflecting a 1.8% increase from $280 million in 2024[34] - Adjusted EBITDA margin for Q4 2025 was 15.5%, compared to 15.8% in Q4 2024; for the full year, the margin was 15.6%, down from 15.7% in 2024[49] - The adjusted EBITDA margin for the European Transportation segment was 3.8% for the three months ended December 31, 2025, compared to 3.5% in 2024[41] Future Outlook - The company expects significant acceleration in free cash flow in the coming years, contributing to shareholder value creation[6] - XPO's initiatives in AI have improved network efficiency and labor productivity, lowering the cost to serve[6]

Core Viewpoint - XPO reported its financial results for Q4 2025, showing a decline in net income and diluted earnings per share compared to the same period in 2024, despite an increase in total revenue and adjusted operating income in certain segments [1][9][10]. Financial Performance Summary - The company generated total revenue of $2.01 billion in Q4 2025, a 4.7% increase from $1.92 billion in Q4 2024 [8]. - Operating income decreased to $143 million in Q4 2025 from $148 million in Q4 2024, reflecting a 3.4% decline [9]. - Net income fell by 22.4% to $59 million in Q4 2025, down from $76 million in Q4 2024, resulting in diluted earnings per share of $0.50 compared to $0.63 in the previous year [9][10]. Segment Performance North American Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) - Revenue for the North American LTL segment was $1.17 billion in Q4 2025, up 0.8% from $1.16 billion in Q4 2024 [12]. - Adjusted operating income increased by 13.8% to $181 million, with an adjusted operating ratio improving by 180 basis points to 84.4% [12][13]. - Yield, excluding fuel, increased by 5.2%, while shipments per day decreased by 1.6% and tonnage per day decreased by 4.5% [12]. European Transportation - The European Transportation segment reported revenue of $846 million in Q4 2025, a 10.6% increase from $765 million in Q4 2024 [13]. - Operating income was a loss of $13 million, compared to a loss of $11 million in the same period last year [13]. - Adjusted EBITDA for this segment rose to $32 million, up from $27 million in Q4 2024, reflecting an 18.5% increase [13]. Corporate - The corporate segment experienced an operating loss of $28 million in Q4 2025, worsening from a loss of $19 million in Q4 2024 [14]. - Adjusted EBITDA for the corporate segment remained a loss of $4 million, unchanged from the previous year [14]. Cash Flow and Capital Expenditures - The company generated $226 million in cash flow from operating activities in Q4 2025, ending the year with $310 million in cash and cash equivalents [11]. - Capital expenditures totaled $84 million, with $65 million allocated for common stock repurchases and $65 million for term loan repayments [11].

Wall Street analysts expect XPO (XPO) to post quarterly earnings of $0.76 per share in its upcoming report, which indicates a year-over-year decline of 14.6%. Revenues are expected to be $1.94 billion, up 1.2% from the year-ago quarter.The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has undergone a downward revision of 8.5% in the past 30 days, bringing it to its present level. This represents how the covering analysts, as a whole, have reassessed their initial estimates during this timeframe.Before a company an ...

XPO (XPO) is expected to deliver a year-over-year decline in earnings on higher revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended December 2025. This widely-known consensus outlook gives a good sense of the company's earnings picture, but how the actual results compare to these estimates is a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price.The earnings report, which is expected to be released on February 5, might help the stock move higher if these key numbers are better than expectations. ...

Core Insights - XPO has announced that two of its drivers have been selected as Captains for the 2026-2027 America's Road Team, highlighting the company's commitment to safety and professionalism in the trucking industry [1][2]. Company Overview - XPO, Inc. is a leader in asset-based less-than-truckload (LTL) freight transportation in North America, moving 17 billion pounds of freight annually and serving 55,000 customers through 605 locations [3]. - The company employs 38,000 individuals across North America and Europe and is headquartered in Greenwich, Connecticut [3]. Industry Recognition - America's Road Team, established by the American Trucking Associations in 1986, consists of elite professional truck drivers who promote safe driving and the trucking industry's role in the economy [2]. - The 2026-2027 team includes 20 professional drivers with a collective experience of 51 million miles of safe driving [2]. Driver Profiles - Selvin Ramirez, with 28 years of professional driving experience, has been with XPO for over 20 years and was named Driver of the Year by the Rhode Island Trucking Association in 2019 [4]. - Omar Stebbins has over 20 years of experience with XPO, has received multiple safety awards, and has been active in community engagement and leadership among drivers [4].

Core Thesis - XPO, Inc. presents a compelling bullish opportunity driven by recent institutional activity and strong fundamentals, particularly in its North American Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) business [2][5][6] Institutional Activity - Recent trades involved selling $115 strike puts expiring February 20, 2026, with the stock trading around $147.27, indicating a ~22% margin of safety [2] - The trade collected $0.85 per share across 5,555 contracts, generating $472,175 in premium, showcasing strong institutional conviction [3] Technical Analysis - The $115 strike puts are deeply out-of-the-money and sit well below XPO's 200-day moving average of $126.44, providing a strong buffer against downside risk [4] - Elevated implied volatility ahead of earnings increases potential returns, allowing for profitable exits even if the stock remains flat [4] Fundamental Strength - XPO's LTL business continues to outperform, capturing market share with yield growth above 6%, reflecting robust pricing power in a soft freight environment [5] - Operational resilience, strong margins, and strategic positioning contribute to a low probability of a significant decline to $115 [6] Market Context - Sector volatility driven by manufacturing reshoring and potential tariffs remains a consideration, but XPO's fundamentals and institutional confidence position it favorably for near-term risk-adjusted returns [6]