January 27, 2025 03:14 PM GMT Tech Bytes | Asia Pacific M Idea A world-class AI model for just $6M DeepSeek R1 has demonstrated that cutting-edge AI capabilities can be achieved with significantly less hardware, defying conventional expectations of computing power requirements. Whether it's a one-off achievement or a sign of things to come, it is reshaping how we think about AI development. What's new? Chinese startup DeepSeek recently achieved frontier AI performance at a fraction of the cost with a model ...

J P M O R G A N Global Emerging Markets Equity Research 29 November 2024 EM Money Trail Tariff fears keep EM under fire EM Equity outflows continued for yet another week (-$4.3bn) after record outflows of -$6.6bn last week. Redemptions extended to five weeks with the cumulative sell-off now at -$20.3bn. Asia ex-Japan funds continue to account for the largest outflow share at -$2.7bn, cooling off from -$5.6bn last week. GEMs funds also posted large redemptions at -$1.5bn. EMEA outflows widened to - $116mn (- ...

Key Points Industry/Company Involved * **Morgan Stanley** - The document is a transcript of a Morgan Stanley macro strategy call discussing economic and market outlooks for 2025, focusing on China and the global economy. * **China** - The call primarily focuses on the Chinese economy, its policy direction, and the impact of external factors such as US-China trade relations. * **Automotive Industry** - A specific segment of the call discusses the outlook for the automotive industry, particularly focusing on electric vehicles (EVs) and the impact of technology and trade policies. Core Views and Arguments * **China Economic Outlook**: * **Persistent Deflation**: The call emphasizes the challenge of breaking deflation in China, with a focus on the need for sustained policy efforts over the next few years. * **Policy Shifts**: The document discusses recent policy shifts in China, including the 10 trillion yuan local government debt swap scheme and the potential for further stimulus measures. * **Second Wave of Policies**: The call suggests that a second wave of policies may be announced in the coming months, but it will likely be relatively modest in scale and focused on traditional sectors like infrastructure and energy. * **Third Wave of Policies**: The document mentions the possibility of a third wave of policies, which could involve more significant reforms and stimulus measures, particularly in areas like social security, housing, and population policies. * **US Economic Outlook**: * **Trade Tensions**: The call discusses the potential impact of US-China trade tensions, including the possibility of increased tariffs and its impact on global supply chains. * **US Policy Uncertainty**: The document highlights the uncertainty surrounding US policy under the new Republican administration, particularly regarding trade, fiscal policy, and immigration. * **US Debt Sustainability**: The call raises concerns about the sustainability of US debt and the potential for rising interest rates and inflation. * **Automotive Industry Outlook**: * **EV Growth**: The document predicts continued growth in the EV market, with a focus on hybrid and plug-in hybrid vehicles. * **Technology and Innovation**: The call emphasizes the importance of technology and innovation in the automotive industry, particularly in areas like smart driving and autonomous vehicles. * **Trade Policies**: The document discusses the potential impact of trade policies on the automotive industry, including the possibility of increased tariffs and supply chain disruptions. Other Important Points * **Market Sentiment**: The call discusses the importance of market sentiment and the potential for policy measures to boost confidence. * **Global Economic Outlook**: The document provides a brief overview of the global economic outlook, highlighting challenges and opportunities in various regions. * **Investment Implications**: The call offers some insights into potential investment implications based on the discussed economic and market outlooks.

China's Economic Policies and Debt Management - China plans a one-time Rmb6 trillion increase in local government special debt ceiling, with issuance spread evenly over 2024-26[19] - A Rmb10 trillion local government debt swap program is confirmed, aiming to restructure debt burdens among central and local governments, PBoC, and banks[19][22] - Beijing intends to increase the official deficit and expand the quota and usage of Local Government Special Bonds (LGSB) for 2025[19] US Tariff Impact on China - Scenario 1: 50%/60% targeted tariffs on China may have less impact than 2018-19, with a potential 1ppt GDP growth reduction, due to supply chain rewiring over the past 7 years[27] - Scenario 2: 50%/60% targeted tariffs on China plus 10% tariffs on the rest of the world could lead to higher deflation pressure and constrained export capacity[27] - China's export share in the US market has declined, but diversification to ASEAN and other regions has helped maintain a strong global export share[30][31] Sectoral Exposure to US Tariffs - Machinery and Electrical Equipment face a potential 50.9% incremental tariff, with 15.2% of China's exports going to the US[36] - Miscellaneous Manufactured Articles (e.g., toys, furniture) could see a 52.7% incremental tariff, with 27.4% of China's exports to the US[36] - Textiles face a 41.0% incremental tariff, with 15.7% of China's exports to the US[36] Reflation and Social Welfare Reforms - China's GDP deflator could rise to 2.0% in 2025 and 2.5% in 2026 under an optimal case with a Rmb10 trillion fiscal stimulus[37] - Social welfare spending in China is significantly lower than the G7 average, with only 13% of GDP allocated to social security contributions[43][44] - Household saving rates in China remain high, driven by insufficient social safety nets, with rural residents and migrant workers showing higher saving rates[47][48] Housing Market and Urban Development - A 1 million unit urban village renovation program is announced, with Rmb0.8 trillion allocated for cash resettlement, aiming to reduce housing inventory[39][41] - Residential inventory in China remains elevated, with 6.1 million units under construction as of 2024[39]

Key Points Industry/Company Involved * **Morgan Stanley** - The document is a transcript of a Morgan Stanley macro strategy call discussing economic and market outlooks for 2025, focusing on China and the global economy. * **China** - The call primarily focuses on the Chinese economy, its policy direction, and the impact of external factors such as US-China trade relations. * **Automotive Industry** - A specific segment of the call discusses the outlook for the automotive industry, particularly focusing on electric vehicles (EVs) and the impact of technology and trade policies. Core Views and Arguments * **China Economic Outlook**: * **Persistent Deflation**: The call emphasizes the challenge of breaking deflation in China, with a focus on the need for sustained policy efforts over the next few years. * **Policy Shifts**: The document discusses recent policy shifts in China, including the 10 trillion yuan local government debt swap scheme and the potential for further stimulus measures. * **Second Wave of Policies**: The call suggests that a second wave of policies may be announced in the coming months, but it will likely be relatively modest in scale and focused on traditional sectors like infrastructure and energy. * **Third Wave of Policies**: The document mentions the possibility of a third wave of policies, which could involve more significant reforms and stimulus measures, particularly in areas like social security, housing, and population policies. * **US Economic Outlook**: * **Trade Tensions**: The call discusses the potential impact of US-China trade tensions, including the possibility of increased tariffs and its impact on global supply chains. * **US Fiscal Policy**: The document analyzes the potential impact of Trump's proposed fiscal policies, including tax cuts, tariffs, and immigration restrictions, and their potential risks for the US economy. * **Automotive Industry Outlook**: * **EV Growth**: The call predicts continued growth in the EV market, with a focus on hybrid and plug-in hybrid vehicles. * **Technology and Innovation**: The document highlights the importance of technology and innovation in the automotive industry, particularly in areas like smart driving and autonomous vehicles. * **Trade Policies**: The call discusses the potential impact of trade policies on the automotive industry, including the possibility of increased tariffs and its impact on global supply chains. Other Important Points * **Market Sentiment**: The call emphasizes the importance of market sentiment and confidence in the Chinese and global economies. * **Economic Growth**: The document discusses the potential for economic growth in China and the global economy, but also highlights the challenges and uncertainties that need to be addressed. * **Investment Opportunities**: The call provides insights into potential investment opportunities in various sectors, including the automotive industry and technology. References * [doc id='1'] * [doc id='2'] * [doc id='3'] * [doc id='4'] * [doc id='5'] * [doc id='6'] * [doc id='7'] * [doc id='8'] * [doc id='9'] * [doc id='10'] * [doc id='11'] * [doc id='12'] * [doc id='13'] * [doc id='14'] * [doc id='15'] * [doc id='16'] * [doc id='17'] * [doc id='18'] * [doc id='19'] * [doc id='20'] * [doc id='21'] * [doc id='22'] * [doc id='23'] * [doc id='24'] * [doc id='25'] * [doc id='26'] * [doc id='27'] * [doc id='28'] * [doc id='29'] * [doc id='30'] * [doc id='31'] * [doc id='32'] * [doc id='33'] * [doc id='34'] * [doc id='35'] * [doc id='36'] * [doc id='37'] * [doc id='38'] * [doc id='39'] * [doc id='40'] * [doc id='41'] * [doc id='42'] * [doc id='43'] * [doc id='44'] * [doc id='45'] * [doc id='46'] * [doc id='47'] * [doc id='48'] * [doc id='49']

Deutsche Bank Research 7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPa Europe Global North America High Yield Corporates Automobiles & Components Industry Automotive Suppliers Date 18 October 2024 Relative Value Analysis Table of Exhibits: n Figure 1: Relative Value Charts n Figure 2: Net leverage (risk) vs. OAS (returns) n Figure 3: OAS per turn of net leverage (bp) n Figure 4: LTV (%) Sean-M Wondrack Research Analyst +1-212-250-8980 Distributed on: 18/10/2024 22:58:09 GMT Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. IMPORTANT RESEARCH DISCLOSURES AND ...

大家好欢迎参加运动品牌专家系列交流目前所有参会者均处于静音状态向主持人讲话谢谢 好的各位投资人大家晚上好我是中信访服的张正那么很荣幸我们今天邀请到一位国际的女性运动品牌专家来和大家进行交流和分享专家你好听得到吗你好听得到的没问题好的专家要不先请您简单做一下背景介绍包括您所在的品牌和负责的工作好的我原先 就职于设计品集团然后有幸目前在职的一个品牌是Lululemon有工作过然后负责的主要是华东区域的这方面的零售运营电商还有社群工作然后35%是接近36家门店的一个零售运营的工作内容35%左右是我们电商在宝砖以及抖音在起飞还有我们 自己搭建的小程序公众号这方面的电商优化工作这个工作内容占比35%剩下的30%的工作内容包括了我们的商务合作这个包括了热汉社区社区社群活动的运作明星的签约大使的签约以及整体活动的一些策划及运作以及一些合作供应商的这方面的 赞助或者说一些商务合作以及一些场馆的渠道搭建基本是这样的一个情况还有包括了我们整体私域的在华农区域的这方面的运作基本是这样的一个情况 好的专家那我们先向您请教一些可能基础数据方面的问题吧先请您简单介绍一下Lululemon在中国区23年的一个三季度流水增速包括今年以来可能 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the technology sector, particularly focusing on hardware and semiconductors, indicating a cautious outlook as the industry approaches cyclical peaks [6][10][45]. Core Insights - The technology sector, excluding software, is facing significant cyclical risks as it approaches peak levels, particularly in semiconductors, with indicators suggesting a potential downturn in demand starting in the second half of 2024 [6][10]. - Key metrics indicate that semiconductor capital expenditures are expected to reach a historical high of $186 billion by 2025, while inventory levels have been rising since Q2 2024, signaling potential oversupply [10][18]. - Historical trends show that during previous downturns, the global tech index's forward price-to-book ratio compressed by an average of 35%, with earnings declining by 51% over four quarters [6][10]. Summary by Sections Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor revenue cycle is projected to peak in Q3 2024, with a consensus forecast indicating a significant slowdown in growth thereafter [10][18]. - The report highlights that the semiconductor sector typically experiences a downturn characterized by a 41% average decline in stock prices, with the average duration of downturns being around 11 months [10][22][73]. Investment Opportunities - Companies with strong free cash flow, relatively good earnings revisions, and undervalued forward price-to-earnings ratios are identified as potential outperformers during the upcoming downturn [10][12][24]. - The report suggests focusing on high-quality, defensive stocks that can withstand cyclical pressures, particularly in the semiconductor and hardware sectors [10][12][24]. Market Dynamics - The report emphasizes the cyclical nature of the semiconductor industry, where overproduction during boom periods often leads to significant corrections as demand normalizes [6][10][20]. - It notes that the current market sentiment is overly optimistic, with a potential shift expected as earnings growth begins to decelerate [10][20][21]. Sector Performance - Historical data indicates that during downturns, certain segments like personal computing semiconductors and commodity memory are most affected, while larger, high-quality firms tend to perform better [12][22][24]. - The report also discusses the importance of maintaining a diversified portfolio to mitigate risks associated with cyclical downturns in the technology sector [10][12][107].

Morgan Stanley August 12, 2024 04:01 AM GMT What Are Companies Saying? A Recurring Publication from US Equity Strategy Focused on Key Topics of Discussion from US Companies Pg 3 Key Takeaways and Charts to Watch Pg 13 Transcript Mentions: Time Series Charts Transcript Mentions: Industry Breakdown Pg 25 Corporate Surveys: Time Series Charts Pg 36 Pg 44 Company Quotes MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH Nicholas J. Lentini, CFA Equity Strategist Nick.Lentini@morganstanley.com +1 212 761- 5863 Michael Wilson Chief US Equi ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an **In-Line** rating for the technology sector, with specific sub-sectors such as **Greater China Technology Semiconductors**, **Electronic Components Japan**, and **IT Hardware** also rated as **In-Line** [1] - The **North America Semiconductors** sector is rated as **Attractive**, indicating a positive outlook for semiconductor companies in this region [1] Core Report Insights - The report highlights a median expectation of **37% Y/Y growth** for NVIDIA-related stocks and **14% Y/Y growth** for non-NVIDIA-related stocks in 2025 [1] - Global cloud capex is expected to grow **20-25% Y/Y** in 2025, significantly higher than the current tracker of **8% growth** [1] - The report introduces a **4 X 4 Matrix** to map out 16 scenarios for cloud capex growth, helping investors assess upside and downside risks for 46 covered stocks [1] Cloud Capex and AI Investment - The report emphasizes the importance of **AI cloud investment**, particularly in areas like **networking**, **CPU servers**, and **utilities**, as the technology landscape evolves [1] - NVIDIA-related capex is projected to grow **37% Y/Y** in 2025, driven by strong demand for AI infrastructure, while non-NVIDIA capex is expected to grow **14% Y/Y** [1] - The report identifies **Wiwynn** and **Advantest** as outliers with significant growth potential in the AI supply chain [1] Key Companies and Stock Implications - **TSMC** is expected to see tight supply for leading-edge foundry capacity in 2025, with potential price hikes for CoWoS capacity by **20%** [9] - **MediaTek** is expanding its partnership with Arm to develop server CPUs, positioning itself as a competitor to NVIDIA in the AI chip market [10] - **Alchip** is projected to see **>50% Y/Y growth** in AWS project revenue, driven by 7nm projects [11] - **Aspeed** is highlighted as a key NVIDIA-related play, with its new AST2700 chip expected to gain traction due to its integration of the LTPI protocol [12] - **Dell Technologies** is positioned to benefit from AI server demand, with **50k HGX AI server builds** expected in 2024, potentially driving **$11B in AI server revenue** in FY25 [14] NVIDIA and Competitors - **NVIDIA** is expected to see **18% Y/Y growth** in datacenter revenue in 2025, driven by strong demand for its Blackwell and Rubin platforms [15] - **Broadcom** is projected to grow its AI exposure, with non-AI semis expected to rebound in late 2025 [16] - **Marvell** is seen as a beneficiary of AI growth but remains **Equal-Weight** due to valuation concerns [17] Networking and Infrastructure - **Cisco** is expected to benefit from networking growth, with a **$1bn FY25 AI order target** [19] - **Arista** is positioned to capture a growing portion of the AI networking opportunity, with an incremental **$5bn AI networking opportunity** by 2027 [21] - **Infinera** and **Ciena** are expected to benefit from increased inter-data center traffic, though growth is seen as a longer-term opportunity [22][20] European Data Center Growth - The European data center market is expected to grow **5x by 2035**, driven by increased cloudification and AI adoption [126] - Key investments include **AWS's $17bn investment** in Spain and **Microsoft's £2.5bn investment** in the UK [126] Conclusion - The report concludes that **cloud capex growth** in 2025 will be driven by both NVIDIA-related and non-NVIDIA-related investments, with significant upside potential for companies in the AI supply chain [1][33]