J P M O R G A N Global Emerging Markets Equity Research 29 November 2024 EM Money Trail Tariff fears keep EM under fire EM Equity outflows continued for yet another week (-$4.3bn) after record outflows of -$6.6bn last week. Redemptions extended to five weeks with the cumulative sell-off now at -$20.3bn. Asia ex-Japan funds continue to account for the largest outflow share at -$2.7bn, cooling off from -$5.6bn last week. GEMs funds also posted large redemptions at -$1.5bn. EMEA outflows widened to - $116mn (- ...

各位投资者朋友大家上午好欢迎来到一周一度的大摩宏观策略谈我是Robin 邢子强今天是一个非常重要的时刻因为我们Morgan Stanley发布了对2025年全球和中国从经济到市场到大类资产配置的一系列展望 我想最近秋风起大家之前感受到的9月下旬以来中国一系列的政策转向对市场信心的强心针作用遇到了外围环境的巨大变化美国大选结果的出炉和美国的特朗普已经任命了很多对华比较鹰派的官员 在这个节骨眼上大家肯定高度关注我们怎么看2025年中国经济打破通缩走到一个良性循环的路径后续的政策力度和方向有多少以及在这个过程中我们对市场策略和资产配置怎么看 那今天我们一如既往请来了研究部特别是宏观组的整个团队的精兵强将因为主题是宏观展望嘛那包括我们的经济学家郑林·坚里他刚刚参加了在北京跟决策层部委和一些智库的宏观调研团也带着新鲜出炉的关于北京对于下一步 特朗普上台之后中国的应对下一步的增量政策的一些思考同样我们也请来了开智鹏博士也是中国经济学家那么今天我们发布的全球亚洲和中国经济展望他都可以给大家带来最新鲜的解读 我们常客就是首席特别是Laura现在已经上了去新加坡的飞机因为本周Morgan Stanley在新加坡举办一年一度的亚 ...

China's Economic Policies and Debt Management - China plans a one-time Rmb6 trillion increase in local government special debt ceiling, with issuance spread evenly over 2024-26[19] - A Rmb10 trillion local government debt swap program is confirmed, aiming to restructure debt burdens among central and local governments, PBoC, and banks[19][22] - Beijing intends to increase the official deficit and expand the quota and usage of Local Government Special Bonds (LGSB) for 2025[19] US Tariff Impact on China - Scenario 1: 50%/60% targeted tariffs on China may have less impact than 2018-19, with a potential 1ppt GDP growth reduction, due to supply chain rewiring over the past 7 years[27] - Scenario 2: 50%/60% targeted tariffs on China plus 10% tariffs on the rest of the world could lead to higher deflation pressure and constrained export capacity[27] - China's export share in the US market has declined, but diversification to ASEAN and other regions has helped maintain a strong global export share[30][31] Sectoral Exposure to US Tariffs - Machinery and Electrical Equipment face a potential 50.9% incremental tariff, with 15.2% of China's exports going to the US[36] - Miscellaneous Manufactured Articles (e.g., toys, furniture) could see a 52.7% incremental tariff, with 27.4% of China's exports to the US[36] - Textiles face a 41.0% incremental tariff, with 15.7% of China's exports to the US[36] Reflation and Social Welfare Reforms - China's GDP deflator could rise to 2.0% in 2025 and 2.5% in 2026 under an optimal case with a Rmb10 trillion fiscal stimulus[37] - Social welfare spending in China is significantly lower than the G7 average, with only 13% of GDP allocated to social security contributions[43][44] - Household saving rates in China remain high, driven by insufficient social safety nets, with rural residents and migrant workers showing higher saving rates[47][48] Housing Market and Urban Development - A 1 million unit urban village renovation program is announced, with Rmb0.8 trillion allocated for cash resettlement, aiming to reduce housing inventory[39][41] - Residential inventory in China remains elevated, with 6.1 million units under construction as of 2024[39]

Key Points Industry/Company Involved * **Morgan Stanley** - The document is a transcript of a Morgan Stanley macro strategy call discussing economic and market outlooks for 2025, focusing on China and the global economy. * **China** - The call primarily focuses on the Chinese economy, its policy direction, and the impact of external factors such as US-China trade relations. * **Automotive Industry** - A specific segment of the call discusses the outlook for the automotive industry, particularly focusing on electric vehicles (EVs) and the impact of technology and trade policies. Core Views and Arguments * **China Economic Outlook**: * **Persistent Deflation**: The call emphasizes the challenge of breaking deflation in China, with a focus on the need for sustained policy efforts over the next few years. * **Policy Shifts**: The document discusses recent policy shifts in China, including the 10 trillion yuan local government debt swap scheme and the potential for further stimulus measures. * **Second Wave of Policies**: The call suggests that a second wave of policies may be announced in the coming months, but it will likely be relatively modest in scale and focused on traditional sectors like infrastructure and energy. * **Third Wave of Policies**: The document mentions the possibility of a third wave of policies, which could involve more significant reforms and stimulus measures, particularly in areas like social security, housing, and population policies. * **US Economic Outlook**: * **Trade Tensions**: The call discusses the potential impact of US-China trade tensions, including the possibility of increased tariffs and its impact on global supply chains. * **US Fiscal Policy**: The document analyzes the potential impact of Trump's proposed fiscal policies, including tax cuts, tariffs, and immigration restrictions, and their potential risks for the US economy. * **Automotive Industry Outlook**: * **EV Growth**: The call predicts continued growth in the EV market, with a focus on hybrid and plug-in hybrid vehicles. * **Technology and Innovation**: The document highlights the importance of technology and innovation in the automotive industry, particularly in areas like smart driving and autonomous vehicles. * **Trade Policies**: The call discusses the potential impact of trade policies on the automotive industry, including the possibility of increased tariffs and its impact on global supply chains. Other Important Points * **Market Sentiment**: The call emphasizes the importance of market sentiment and confidence in the Chinese and global economies. * **Economic Growth**: The document discusses the potential for economic growth in China and the global economy, but also highlights the challenges and uncertainties that need to be addressed. * **Investment Opportunities**: The call provides insights into potential investment opportunities in various sectors, including the automotive industry and technology. References * [doc id='1'] * [doc id='2'] * [doc id='3'] * [doc id='4'] * [doc id='5'] * [doc id='6'] * [doc id='7'] * [doc id='8'] * [doc id='9'] * [doc id='10'] * [doc id='11'] * [doc id='12'] * [doc id='13'] * [doc id='14'] * [doc id='15'] * [doc id='16'] * [doc id='17'] * [doc id='18'] * [doc id='19'] * [doc id='20'] * [doc id='21'] * [doc id='22'] * [doc id='23'] * [doc id='24'] * [doc id='25'] * [doc id='26'] * [doc id='27'] * [doc id='28'] * [doc id='29'] * [doc id='30'] * [doc id='31'] * [doc id='32'] * [doc id='33'] * [doc id='34'] * [doc id='35'] * [doc id='36'] * [doc id='37'] * [doc id='38'] * [doc id='39'] * [doc id='40'] * [doc id='41'] * [doc id='42'] * [doc id='43'] * [doc id='44'] * [doc id='45'] * [doc id='46'] * [doc id='47'] * [doc id='48'] * [doc id='49']

Deutsche Bank Research 7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPa Europe Global North America High Yield Corporates Automobiles & Components Industry Automotive Suppliers Date 18 October 2024 Relative Value Analysis Table of Exhibits: n Figure 1: Relative Value Charts n Figure 2: Net leverage (risk) vs. OAS (returns) n Figure 3: OAS per turn of net leverage (bp) n Figure 4: LTV (%) Sean-M Wondrack Research Analyst +1-212-250-8980 Distributed on: 18/10/2024 22:58:09 GMT Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. IMPORTANT RESEARCH DISCLOSURES AND ...

大家好欢迎参加运动品牌专家系列交流目前所有参会者均处于静音状态向主持人讲话谢谢 好的各位投资人大家晚上好我是中信访服的张正那么很荣幸我们今天邀请到一位国际的女性运动品牌专家来和大家进行交流和分享专家你好听得到吗你好听得到的没问题好的专家要不先请您简单做一下背景介绍包括您所在的品牌和负责的工作好的我原先 就职于设计品集团然后有幸目前在职的一个品牌是Lululemon有工作过然后负责的主要是华东区域的这方面的零售运营电商还有社群工作然后35%是接近36家门店的一个零售运营的工作内容35%左右是我们电商在宝砖以及抖音在起飞还有我们 自己搭建的小程序公众号这方面的电商优化工作这个工作内容占比35%剩下的30%的工作内容包括了我们的商务合作这个包括了热汉社区社区社群活动的运作明星的签约大使的签约以及整体活动的一些策划及运作以及一些合作供应商的这方面的 赞助或者说一些商务合作以及一些场馆的渠道搭建基本是这样的一个情况还有包括了我们整体私域的在华农区域的这方面的运作基本是这样的一个情况 好的专家那我们先向您请教一些可能基础数据方面的问题吧先请您简单介绍一下Lululemon在中国区23年的一个三季度流水增速包括今年以来可能 ...

Morgan Stanley | RESEARCH 全球基金会 2024年8月20日 09:00 PM GMT 全球技术 周期手册 – 为峰值做好准备 在对人工智能的兴奋之中，我们必须不忘半导体和技术硬件的周期性特征。随着我们接近周期峰值 ，我们分享关于如何应对这一过渡的见解。 摩根士丹利与摩根士丹利研究所覆盖的公司进行业务，因此投资者应意识到该公司可能存在影响摩根士丹利研究客观性的利益冲突。投资者在做出投 资决策时应将摩根士丹利研究视为唯一的一个因素。 有关分析师认证和其他重要披露的信息，请参阅本报告末尾的披露部分。 += 由非美国附属机构雇佣的分析师未在FINRA注册，可能不是会员的关联人员，并且可能不受FINRA对与主题公司沟通、公开演讲和交易研究分 析师账户持有的证券的限制。 国际资本市场研报资讯+V: quanqiuzixun8 国际资本市场研报资讯+V: quanqiuzixun8 摩根士丹利亚洲有限公司+ 肖恩·金 股票分析师 +852 3963-1005 Shawn.Kim@morganstanley.com 摩根士丹利亚洲有限公司+ 摩根士丹利亚洲有限公司+ 杰森·吴，CFA 量化策略师 + ...

Morgan Stanley August 12, 2024 04:01 AM GMT What Are Companies Saying? A Recurring Publication from US Equity Strategy Focused on Key Topics of Discussion from US Companies Pg 3 Key Takeaways and Charts to Watch Pg 13 Transcript Mentions: Time Series Charts Transcript Mentions: Industry Breakdown Pg 25 Corporate Surveys: Time Series Charts Pg 36 Pg 44 Company Quotes MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH Nicholas J. Lentini, CFA Equity Strategist Nick.Lentini@morganstanley.com +1 212 761- 5863 Michael Wilson Chief US Equi ...

M Global Foundation Global Technology August 4, 2024 08:49 PM GMT Navigating 2025 AI cloud investment Cloud capex growth and allocations between NVIDIA and other hardware companies in 2025 may create asymmetric risks. We provide the framework on investment across the cloud AI supply chain. Key Takeaways The Morgan Stanley tech team's median expectation is for NVIDIA-related stocks to grow 37% Y/Y and non-NVIDIA to grow 14%. We have different embedded cloud capex assumptions for stocks across our coverage. O ...

M Global Foundation Sunday Start | What's Next in Global Macro August 11, 2024 06:00 AM GMT On Tenterhooks It has been a wild August thus far in global equity and fixed income markets. In the first few days of month, the S&P 500 index fell over 6% and Japan's Nikkei 225 index recorded a more dramatic 20% decline. Both indices have since recovered about half of these losses. Ten-year US Treasury yields dropped more than 20bp but are now back to the levels prevailing at the beginning of the month. Measures of ...