2024 年3 月19 日 在线媒体: 中性 授权转发报告/ 业绩点评报告 阅文集团 (772 HK, 买入, 目标价: HK$32.00) 丰富作品储备有望支撑 2024 年利润增长逾 30% 目标价: HK$32.00 当前股价: HK$27.35 • 营收基本符合我们的预期，调整后利润较我们的预期高3%。 股价上行/下行空间 +17% • 2024 年电视剧/电影/游戏作品储备丰富，有望支撑利润增长逾30%。 52周最高/最低价 (HK$) 45.75/20.40 市值 (US$mn) 3,557 • 重申“买入”评级，下调SOTP 目标价至32.00 港元。 当前发行数量(百万股) 1,017 三个月平均日交易額 14 此港股通报告之英文版本于2024 年3 月19 日上午6 时30 分由华兴证券（香港）发 (US$mn) 流通盘占比 (%) 40 布。中文版由华兴证券的赵冰（证券分析师登记编号：S1680519040001）审核。如果 主要股东 (%) 您想进一步讨论本报告所述观点，请与您在华兴证券的销售代表联系。 腾讯 59 阅文集团公布2H23 业绩，营收同比增长5%至37.3 亿元（基本符合我 ...

Investment Rating - The report downgrades SMIC-H (981 HK) to a "Hold" rating from a previous "Buy" rating [1][4][10] - The target price is revised downward to HK$14.00 from HK$18.00, reflecting a 22% decrease [1][4][10] Core Views - SMIC's focus on capacity expansion over profitability is expected to result in a mid-term ROE in the low single digits [4][5][10] - The company's advanced node business (N28 and beyond) is conducted through joint ventures, limiting its ability to capture full profits [4][5][10] - The report highlights that SMIC's expansion plans are progressing steadily, with a focus on N22-28 nodes to avoid competition in more mature nodes [5] - The report notes that SMIC's capital expenditure for 2024 is expected to remain flat at $7.47 billion, consistent with 2023 levels [4][5] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024E is projected at $6.885 billion, with a slight increase to $7.937 billion in 2025E and $8.737 billion in 2026E [6] - EPS for 2024E is forecasted at $0.04, increasing to $0.06 in 2025E and $0.06 in 2026E [1][6] - The P/E ratio for 2024E is 47.6x, decreasing to 33.8x in 2025E and 30.6x in 2026E [6] - The P/B ratio for 2024E is 0.7x, remaining consistent through 2026E [6] Industry Context - The report suggests that the oversupply of mature node capacity in China is largely confined to the domestic market due to supply chain decoupling from the rest of the world [4] - Overseas foundries like GlobalFoundries have adopted a cautious approach to capacity expansion, with capital expenditure declining by 41% YoY in 2023 and expected to drop further in 2024 [4] - In contrast, Chinese foundries like SMIC and Hua Hong are aggressively expanding capacity, with Hua Hong planning to complete a second 12-inch fab within three years [4] Valuation and Risks - The new target price of HK$14.00 is based on a 0.7x 2024E P/B ratio, down from 0.9x, reflecting lower profitability and return expectations [10] - The report highlights that SMIC's future opportunities are increasingly limited to the domestic market, with the "China capacity for China demand" strategy potentially leading to domestic oversupply [4]