研究院 全球银行业展望报告 2025 年第 2 季度（总第 62 期） 报告日期：2025 年 3 月 27 日 要点 ● 2025 年上半年，全球政经格局加速演化，银行业经 营面临机遇与挑战，规模扩张总体平稳，盈利能力整体 回暖，资产质量有所下滑，资本充足状况相对稳定。 A ● 2025 年上半年，中国经济回升向好，银行业锚定经 济工作重点方向，推动实体经济高质量发展，资产规模 持续增长，盈利能力企稳，资产质量稳健。 ● 本次季报将聚焦特朗普 2.0 时期美国金融去监管政 策、中国银行业落实"两会"精神推动业务高质量发展、 低空经济发展趋势及银行业机遇、全球净零排放金融版 图加速重构等专题进行研究。 2025 年上半年主要经济体银行业净利润与同比增速（预测） 资料来源：各央行和监管机构，银行财报，中国银行研究院 中国银行研究院 全球银行业研究课题组 | 组 长： | 陈卫东 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 副组长： | 王家强 | | | | 成 员： 邵 | 科 | | | | | 叶怀斌 | | | | 杜 | | 阳 | | | | 李一帆 | | | | | 马天 ...

研究院 全球银行业展望报告 2025 年第 2 季度（总第 62 期） 报告日期：2025 年 3 月 27 日 要点 ● 2025 年上半年，全球政经格局加速演化，银行业经 营面临机遇与挑战，规模扩张总体平稳，盈利能力整体 回暖，资产质量有所下滑，资本充足状况相对稳定。 A ● 2025 年上半年，中国经济回升向好，银行业锚定经 济工作重点方向，推动实体经济高质量发展，资产规模 持续增长，盈利能力企稳，资产质量稳健。 ● 本次季报将聚焦特朗普 2.0 时期美国金融去监管政 策、中国银行业落实"两会"精神推动业务高质量发展、 低空经济发展趋势及银行业机遇、全球净零排放金融版 图加速重构等专题进行研究。 2025 年上半年主要经济体银行业净利润与同比增速（预测） 资料来源：各央行和监管机构，银行财报，中国银行研究院 中国银行研究院 全球银行业研究课题组 | 组 长： | 陈卫东 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 副组长： | 王家强 | | | | 成 员： 邵 | 科 | | | | | 叶怀斌 | | | | 杜 | | 阳 | | | | 李一帆 | | | | | 马天 ...

研究院 全球经济金融展望报告 2025 年第 2 季度（总第 62 期） 报告日期：2025 年 3 月 27 日 要点 ● 2025 年一季度，世界经济呈现总供给、总需求同步 走弱特征。制造业延续改善态势，服务业景气度下滑。 居民消费增速放缓，私人投资低迷。全球通胀反弹风 险上升。主要经济体财政、货币政策立场分化。全球 FDI 持续低迷，债务水平上升，大宗商品价格波动增 加。 ● 展望二季度，全球经济下行风险提高，可能延续总 需求、总供给同步回落特征。部分经济体面临通胀反 弹风险。特朗普关税政策可能引发新一轮全球"贸易 战"。欧洲财政扩张步伐有望加快，美联储降息步伐 更为谨慎。全球 FDI 延续低增速，美元指数高位震荡。 全球债务增速趋缓，油价持续承压，金价上行趋势延 续。 ● 主要经济体应对特朗普关税政策的措施、全球美元 流动性走势与前瞻等热点问题值得关注。 | 分项 | | 2022 | 年占全球 GDP 份额 | 2025Q1Vs2024Q1 | 综合研判 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 需 | 居民消费 | | 55.4% | ↓ | | | 求 ...

研究院 中国经济金融展望报告 2025 年第 2 季度（总第 62 期） 报告日期：2025 年 3 月 27 日 要点 中国银行研究院 中国经济金融研究课题组 | 组 长： | 陈卫东 | | --- | --- | | 副组长： | 周景彤 | | 王家强 | | | 成 员： | 李佩珈 | | 杨 | 娟 | | 梁 | 婧 | | 赵廷辰 | | | 范若滢 | | | 梁 | 斯 | | 叶银丹 | | | 刘 | 晨 | | 吴 | 丹 | | 刘佩忠 | | | 平 | 婧 | | 张传捷（伦敦研究中心） | | | 联系人：范若滢 | | | 电 话：010-66592780 | | | 邮 | 件：fanruoying@qq.com | 中国经济增速及预测 % 资料来源：中国银行研究院 ● 2025 年一季度，中国经济总体延续了上年四季度以来的 回升态势，尽管特朗普政府相关政策对国际贸易投资活 动的影响初步显现，中国出口增速有所放缓，但国内宏 观政策更加积极有为，存量和增量政策持续显效，内需 有所回升，市场预期和信心逐步改善。预计一季度 GDP 同比增长 5.2%左右，较上年同期回落 0. ...

研究院 2025 年 2 月 18 日 2025 年第 07 期（总第 579 期） 中银研究产品系列 作 者：梁 斯 中国银行研究院 电 话：010 - 6659 4084 签发人：陈卫东 审稿人：王家强 李佩珈 联系人：刘佩忠 电 话：010 – 6659 6623 ＊ 对外公开 ＊＊ 全辖传阅 ＊＊＊ 内参材料 近期我国国债收益率 持续下行的原因及建议＊ 近年来，在货币政策持续发力影响下，流动性 和利率环境相对宽松，带动国债收益率同步下行。 但 2024 年以来，国债收益率下行速度加快，降幅明 显超过政策利率下行幅度，出现"超调"现象。货 币政策宽松为债券市场"走牛"提供了条件，但中 小银行和各类投资机构等大幅增配债券资产，导致 债券交易规模持续放量是导致国债收益率快速下行 的重要原因，这对金融市场运行带来潜在风险隐 患。建议监管部门强化沟通与监管力度，引导市场 逐步回归理性；投资机构应合理优化资产配置策 略，提升风险管理能力，防范市场风险。 伦敦经济月刊（2013 年 1 月） 2013 年 1 月 18 日 Ω ● 《经济金融展望季报》 ● 《中银调研》 ● 《宏观观察》 ● 《银行业观察》 ● 《 ...

Economic Growth Target - The 2025 economic growth target is set at around 5%, balancing needs and possibilities, considering domestic and international conditions[6] - Achieving this target is crucial for stabilizing employment, as an increase of 1% in GDP generates approximately 230-260 million new urban jobs[6] Macroeconomic Policies - Fiscal policy is significantly strengthened, with the deficit rate raised to around 4%, the highest since 2008, indicating a strong commitment to economic recovery[9] - The broad deficit rate for 2025 is projected at around 8.4%, up from 6.6% in 2024, reflecting increased fiscal support[9] Consumer Spending - The report emphasizes the need to boost consumption, with a focus on enhancing residents' income and reducing burdens, particularly for low-income groups[11] - A new policy to support the replacement of old consumer goods is expected to allocate 300 billion yuan for this initiative, doubling the support from 2024[13] New Quality Productivity - High-tech manufacturing value added grew by 8.9% in 2024, outpacing overall industrial growth by 3.1 percentage points, highlighting the importance of new quality productivity[15] - The report outlines the need for a robust innovation system, with enterprises accounting for 77.7% of R&D funding in 2023[16] Foreign Trade and Investment - The report acknowledges challenges in foreign trade due to rising tariffs, particularly from the U.S., which has imposed an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods[22] - It advocates for the development of cross-border e-commerce and new offshore trade models to mitigate tariff impacts and enhance trade resilience[24][25] Real Estate Market - The report stresses the importance of stabilizing the real estate market, with policies aimed at releasing rigid and improvement housing demand[29] - The government plans to expand the scale of urban village and dilapidated housing renovations, potentially driving sales of new homes significantly[30]

Monetary Policy - The report emphasizes the implementation of "moderately loose" monetary policy to support economic stability, continuing the policy direction set by the Central Economic Work Conference in December 2024[5] - The People's Bank of China reduced the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 1 percentage point in two instances, releasing over 1 trillion yuan in liquidity, while the weighted average loan interest rate fell to a historical low of 3.28% by the end of 2024, down 55 basis points year-on-year[6] - Structural monetary policy tools will be optimized to support key sectors such as technology innovation and green development, with expectations for further expansion of these tools[7] Consumer Spending - The report identifies weak consumer sentiment and insufficient growth momentum as critical issues, with household income growth lagging behind expectations and unemployment affecting consumption willingness[12] - A funding scale of 300 billion yuan for the "old-for-new" consumption policy is proposed, significantly increasing from 2024, aimed at stimulating consumer spending[13] - Consumer credit growth is targeted to reverse the decline in housing loans, with a 1.35 trillion yuan increase in narrow consumer loans in 2024, down 1.18 trillion yuan year-on-year[13] Capital Market Reforms - The report calls for deepening capital market reforms to promote long-term capital inflows, highlighting the importance of direct financing for developing new productive forces[17] - As of the end of 2023, approximately 44.73 trillion yuan of long-term funds were available, but only 5.14 trillion yuan (11.5%) had entered the stock market, indicating significant potential for growth[18] - The report outlines a comprehensive policy framework to enhance the capital market, including stricter regulations on IPOs and improved corporate governance[19] Aging Population and Pension Policies - The report highlights the need to improve pension policies, proposing a 20 yuan increase in the minimum basic pension for urban and rural residents, while also enhancing the basic pension for retirees[21] - The establishment of a long-term care insurance system is emphasized to support elderly individuals, particularly those with disabilities, enhancing their access to care services[28] Green Economy Initiatives - The report advocates for the development of green buildings as a new growth point, aiming to transform the real estate sector towards energy-efficient practices[29] - The construction of large-scale renewable energy bases in desert areas is prioritized, with a target of 455 million kilowatts of installed capacity by 2030[31] - Strengthening the national carbon emissions trading market is essential, with plans to expand its coverage to various industries to meet climate goals[32] Local Government Debt Management - Local government debt remains a significant concern, with a total debt balance of 47.53 trillion yuan at the end of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16.69%[34] - The report suggests a combination of debt replacement and rational borrowing to manage local government debt effectively, emphasizing transparency in financing activities[35] - Financial institutions are encouraged to participate in local debt resolution efforts, providing support through various financial products and services[38]

Economic Growth Target - The 2025 economic growth target is set at around 5%, balancing needs and possibilities, considering domestic and international conditions[6] - Achieving this target is crucial for stabilizing employment, as an increase of 1% in GDP generates approximately 230-260 million new urban jobs[6] Macroeconomic Policies - Fiscal policy is significantly strengthened, with the deficit rate raised to around 4%, the highest since 2008, indicating a strong commitment to economic recovery[9] - The broad deficit rate for 2025 is projected at approximately 8.4%, up from 6.6% in 2024, reflecting increased fiscal support[9] Consumer Spending and Investment - Consumer spending accounted for 56.8% of GDP in 2023, lower than major economies like the US (81.3%) and Germany (74.3%), indicating substantial room for growth[7] - The government plans to enhance consumer spending through various measures, including a 300 billion yuan allocation for a "trade-in" policy to stimulate consumption[13] Real Estate Market - The report emphasizes stabilizing the real estate market, with policies aimed at releasing rigid housing demand and improving market conditions[29] - The government plans to expand the scale of urban village and dilapidated housing renovations, potentially driving sales of new homes by approximately 2.48 trillion yuan under optimistic scenarios[30] External Trade and Investment - The report highlights challenges in external trade due to rising tariffs and protectionism, with a focus on expanding high-level openness and stabilizing foreign trade and investment[22] - Cross-border e-commerce is identified as a growth point, with a total import-export volume of 2.63 trillion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 10.8% year-on-year increase[24] Technological and Industrial Development - The report underscores the importance of new productive forces, with high-tech manufacturing value-added growth at 8.9% in 2024, outpacing overall industrial growth[15] - A focus on enhancing the technology-innovation-industry ecosystem is emphasized, with significant investments in R&D and technology transfer mechanisms[16] Employment and Income Growth - The report stresses the need to support low- and middle-income groups, with measures to increase income and reduce burdens, including raising basic pension standards by 20 yuan[13] - Employment pressures are acknowledged, with a projected 12.22 million college graduates in 2025, necessitating robust job creation strategies[6] Policy Coordination - The report advocates for a coordinated approach to macroeconomic policies, emphasizing flexibility, timeliness, and consistency in policy implementation[11] - Future policies will focus on enhancing the synergy between fiscal, monetary, and industrial policies to foster economic growth[11]

Group 1: Recent Trends in Government Bond Yields - Since the beginning of 2024, China's government bond yields, particularly the 10-year yield, have declined rapidly from 2.56% at the start of the year to 1.68% by the end of December 2024, marking a significant drop of 88 basis points[5][11]. - The decline in bond yields has outpaced the reduction in policy interest rates, indicating a potential "overshooting" phenomenon in the market[11]. - In December 2024, the 1-year government bond yield fell below 1% for the first time since 2009, while the 10-year yield briefly dropped below 1.60%, setting a historical low[11][17]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Yield Decline - The continuous easing of monetary policy has created favorable conditions for a bull market in bonds, with the People's Bank of China (PBOC) reducing the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates significantly[12][14]. - Investment institutions have significantly increased their allocation to bond assets, with bond trading volume in 2024 reaching 416.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.56%, and government bond transactions rising by 52.74% to 125.14 trillion yuan[16][17]. - The trading volume of government bonds in 2024 was approximately 30.05% of the total bond trading volume, reflecting a 6.73 percentage point increase from 2023[16][24]. Group 3: Risks and Recommendations - The rapid increase in bond trading and the corresponding decline in yields have raised concerns about potential market risks, including over-leverage among investment institutions[27][32]. - Regulatory authorities are advised to enhance communication and supervision to guide the market back to rationality and prevent excessive speculation in the bond market[36][38]. - Investment institutions should optimize their asset allocation strategies and improve risk management capabilities to mitigate market risks, especially in light of the current overvaluation in bond prices[39].

Group 1: Importance of Trusted Data Space - The construction of a trusted data space in the financial industry is crucial for unlocking the potential of data elements, optimizing production functions, and enhancing overall productivity[9] - The financial data trading market reached a scale of 53.56 billion yuan in 2023, leading all industries in data transactions[6] - The establishment of a trusted data space can help alleviate issues such as "data islands" and enhance data sharing and exchange among financial institutions[24] Group 2: Policy and Strategic Recommendations - The "Action Plan for Trusted Data Space Development (2024-2028)" emphasizes the need for a unified data circulation infrastructure to facilitate resource sharing and value co-creation[5] - Financial institutions should strengthen data governance and enhance their data quality management capabilities, as evidenced by a self-assessment score of only 3.03 out of 5 among surveyed banks[13] - The government should promote the integration of public data, city data, and financial data spaces to stimulate the effects of public data in the trusted data space[41] Group 3: Challenges and Solutions - Financial institutions face significant challenges in data sharing due to internal data governance issues, leading to severe "data islands" problems[15] - The average cost of data breaches in the financial sector was $5.97 million per incident from 2021 to 2022, highlighting the need for improved data security measures[15] - There is a pressing need for enhanced international cooperation and standard recognition to facilitate safe and efficient cross-border data flow in the financial sector[38]