伦敦经济月刊（2013 年 1 月） 2013 年 1 月 18 日 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------|-------|---------------------------------------------------|-------|-------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Ω | | | 中银研究产品系列 | | | 特朗普政府产业政策 | | ● | | | 《经济金融展望季报》 | | | | | ● | | | 《中银调研》 | | | 对华影响与应对建议 ＊ | | ● | | | 《宏观观察》 | | | | | ● | | | 《银行业观察》 | | | 近年来，美国产业政策坚持重振本土制造业理 | | ● | | | 《国际金融评论》 | | | 念，推动"再工业化"。特朗普第 ...

研究院 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------|-------|---------------------------------------------------|-------|-------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Ω | | | 中银研究产品系列 | | | 特朗普政府产业政策 | | ● | | | 《经济金融展望季报》 | | | | | ● | | | 《中银调研》 | | | 对华影响与应对建议 ＊ | | ● | | | 《宏观观察》 | | | | | ● | | | 《银行业观察》 | | | 近年来，美国产业政策坚持重振本土制造业理 | | ● | | | 《国际金融评论》 | | | 念，推动"再工业化"。特朗普第一轮任期采取了 | | ● | | | 《国别/地区观察》 | ...

伦敦经济月刊（2013 年 1 月） 2013 年 1 月 18 日 研究院 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------|-----------------|----------------------|---------------------------|-------|---------|-------|-------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------|-------|-------|----------------------------------|-------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | ...

伦敦经济月刊（2013 年 1 月） 2013 年 1 月 18 日 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------|-----------------|----------------------|---------------------------|-------|---------|-------|-------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------|-------|-------|----------------------------------|-------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | ...

伦敦经济月刊（2013 年 1 月） 2013 年 1 月 18 日 研究院 2024 年 12 月 18 日 2024 年第 57 期（总第 569 期） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------------------------------|----------|-------|----------------------|----------------------------------------------------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Ω | | | | 中银研究产品系列 | 金融稳定与货币政策工具创新： | | ● | | | | 《经济金融展望季报》 | ＊ | | ● | 《中银调研》 | | | | 背景、影响与建议 | | ● | 《宏观观察》 | | | | | | ● | 《银行业观察》 | | | | 2024 年底中央经济工作会议提出，"探索拓展 | | ● | | | | 《国际金融评论》 | 中央银行宏观审慎与金融稳定功能，创新金融工 | | ● | | | | ...

伦敦经济月刊（2013 年 1 月） 2013 年 1 月 18 日 研究院 2024 年 12 月 13 日 2024 年第 55 期（总第 567 期） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|---------|---------------------------|-------|----------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Ω | | | | 中银研究产品系列 | | | | | | ● | | | | 《经济金融展望季报》 | | | | | | ● | | | | 《中银调研》 | | | | ＊ | | ● | | | | 《宏观观察》 | | | | 如何看待"适度宽松"的货币政策 | | ● | | | | 《银行业观察》 | | | | | | ...

伦敦经济月刊（2013 年 1 月） 2013 年 1 月 18 日 研究院 2024 年 12 月 16 日 2024 年第 56 期（总第 568 期） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------|--------|-----------------|--------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | | | | | | | 更加积极有为的宏观政策将推动 | | Ω | | | 中银研究产品系列 | 2025 年经济稳定增长 | | ● | | | 《经济金融展望季报》 | | | ● | | 《中银调研》 | | | | | | | | —— 2024 年中央经济工作会议精神 | | ● | | 《宏观观察》 | | | | ● | | | 《银行业观察》 | 学习与解读 ＊ | | ● | | | 《国际金融评论》 | | | ● | | | ...

研究院 组 长： 陈卫东 副组长： 张兴荣 成 员： 纪飞峰 郑荣信 龚一泓 沈天薇 武 鹏 巫佳敏 区域经济金融展望报告（长三角） 2024 年第 4 期（总第 4 期） 报告日期：2024 年 11 月 28 日 要点 ●2024 年，长三角经济总体保持平稳，地区生产总值 增速高于全国，工业、服务业实现较快增长，房地产 市场、城乡差距、财政收入、上市银行发展质效等指 标表现好于全国，长三角一体化发展向纵深推进，但 需求端和不同行业发展分化较大，社融增速下降明显。 ●展望 2025 年，"稳"依旧是长三角经济的总基调， 预计长三角服务业将保持较快发展，新质生产力加力、 加速发展，基建投资持续发力，消费活跃度回升，"进" 的动力稳步加强，区域经济增速将保持在 5.5%左右。 三省一市要全力推进全面深化改革各项政策落地，因 地制宜发展新质生产力，着力解决制约本地区发展的 短板和弱项，协同推进长三角一体化新一轮三年行动 计划，在高质量、一体化等方面发挥引领示范作用。 商业银行要强化区域一体化资源共享与产品服务创 新，持续提高对长三角区域发展的支撑力和业务竞争 能力。 0 2 4 6 8 10 2018 2019 ...

Global Banking Industry Overview - The global banking industry faces increased uncertainty in 2025 due to monetary policy shifts and political changes, leading to challenges in profit growth and continued divergence in scale expansion [1] - Emerging markets, particularly in Asia-Pacific, remain key drivers of global economic growth, offering opportunities for banking business expansion [6] - Developed economies, such as the US and Europe, experience slowing growth, with weak consumer demand and housing market challenges impacting banking operations [5] Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - Major developed economies, including the US, Eurozone, and UK, have entered a rate-cutting cycle, putting pressure on net interest margins and profitability [8] - Emerging economies show divergent monetary policies, with some countries raising rates while others cut rates, adding complexity to global banking operations [9] - The US Federal Reserve cuts rates by 75 basis points, while the European Central Bank reduces rates by 110 basis points, impacting bank asset yields and interest income [8] Regulatory Environment - Financial regulations continue to tighten globally, with a focus on capital requirements, digital technology, and sustainability [11] - The US and UK implement Basel III reforms, increasing capital requirements for large banks and enhancing risk management capabilities [11] - Digital asset and cryptocurrency regulations are strengthened, with global frameworks being developed to manage risks in financial technology [13] Profitability and Asset Quality - US banking profits are expected to decline by 19.2% in 2025 due to monetary policy shifts and political uncertainties [24] - Eurozone and UK banking profits are projected to grow by around 10%, driven by international expansion and low interest rates [24] - Emerging markets like Brazil and India show strong profit growth, with Brazil's banking profits expected to increase by 24.9% [24] Asset Expansion and Risk Management - US banking assets are expected to grow by 0.9% in 2025, while Eurozone assets rebound by 5.4% after a period of contraction [31] - Japan's banking assets grow by 5.0%, focusing on Asia-Pacific markets, while Brazil's assets expand by 11.9% [31] - Global banking risks remain high, with US non-performing loans expected to rise to 1.13%, while Eurozone non-performing loans decline to 1.95% [35] Capital Adequacy - US banking capital adequacy ratios are expected to increase by 1.12 percentage points to 16.08% in 2025, while Eurozone ratios remain stable at 19.00% [44] - UK banking capital adequacy ratios rise significantly by 4.53 percentage points to 22.80%, reflecting strong regulatory reforms [44] - Emerging markets like Malaysia and Indonesia maintain high capital adequacy ratios, with Indonesia at 26.80% [44] China Banking Industry Overview - China's banking industry continues to support the real economy, with stable asset growth and improved risk management [47] - Total assets of China's banking sector reach 439.5 trillion yuan in 2024, growing by 7.3% year-on-year [68] - Policy measures, including interest rate cuts and reserve requirement reductions, support credit expansion and economic recovery [51] Profitability and Policy Support in China - China's banking profits grow by 0.5% in 2024, with net interest margins stabilizing at 1.53% [77] - Non-interest income grows by 4%, driven by bond investment gains, while fee income declines due to regulatory fee reductions [77] - Policy support, including capital replenishment and debt resolution, is expected to boost banking profitability in 2025 [70] Regulatory and Policy Developments in China - China's financial regulators focus on risk prevention, capital management, and green finance, with new policies supporting technology innovation and small business financing [57] - The "Five Financial Articles" policy framework guides banking services, emphasizing support for key sectors like technology, green development, and manufacturing [57] - Open banking and digital payment reforms enhance financial inclusion and service efficiency, with new regulations promoting data sharing and innovation [57]

研究院 组 长： 陈卫东 副组长： 鄂志寰 廖淑萍 成 员： 边卫红 ● 展望 2025 年，全球经济下行风险提高，可能呈现总 需求、总供给同步回落的特征。全球通胀回落速度趋 缓。保护主义成为全球贸易增长的最大风险。美联储 降息步伐面临不确定性，欧洲央行有望连续降息。全 球 FDI 流入延续低增速，跨境证券投资流向将发生调 整。美元指数保持相对强势，全球公共债务水平趋于 上升，全球股市整体趋势向好，国际油价持续承压。 熊启跃 王有鑫 赵雪情 曹鸿宇 李颖婷 王宁远 ● 特朗普主要政策主张及其影响、中央清算化对美债 市场流动性和基准利率的影响等热点问题值得关注。 初 晓 章凯莉 全球主要经济指标趋势分析 张笑梅（全球市场部） 綦子琼（全球市场部） 陆晓明（纽约） 联系人：曹鸿宇 电 话：010-66594053 邮 件：yjycaohongyu@bank-of-china.com 全球经济金融展望报告 2025 年年报（总第 61 期） 报告日期：2024 年 11 月 28 日 要点 ● 2024 年，全球经济增速低位运行。居民消费增速回 落，私人投资和政府支出温和增长，制造业、服务业 表现向好，通胀压力明显 ...