研究院 2025 年 9 月 12 日 2025 年第 32 期（总第 604 期） Ω 中银研究产品系列 作 者：曾圣钧 深圳分行大湾区金融研究院 程宏宇 深圳分行大湾区金融研究院 电 话：0775 - 2233 2087 签发人：陈卫东 审稿人：周景彤 梁 婧 联系人：程栖云 刘佩忠 电 话：010 – 6659 4016 ＊ 对外公开 ＊＊ 全辖传阅 ＊＊＊ 内参材料 我国脑科学与脑机接口行业 发展现状及建议＊ 脑科学与脑机接口（BCI）技术作为融合神经科 学、人工智能、材料科学等多学科的前沿领域，已成 为全球科技竞争的战略高地。我国在政策支持、技术 研发和产业布局上持续突破，非侵入式技术应用领 先，侵入式技术加速追赶，形成了涵盖"材料-设备- 应用"的产业链雏形。然而，核心零部件依赖进口、 技术转化效率低、伦理规范待完善等问题仍制约行业 发展，金融支持与服务仍有需要完善的地方。未来， 我国需围绕行业发展的痛点、堵点和难点，多措并举 推动产业从实验室走向规模化应用，助力我国在全球 脑机竞争中占据优势地位。 ● 《经济金融展望季报》 ● 《中银调研》 ● 《宏观观察》 ● 《银行业观察》 ● 《国际金融评 ...

Group 1: Historical Context of U.S. Industrial Policy - U.S. industrial policy has evolved through various protective measures since its founding, with tariffs peaking at an average rate of 61.7% in 1830[9] - The manufacturing output value in the U.S. grew from $173 million in 1810 to $13 billion by 1899, establishing the U.S. as a major industrial power[9] - Post-World War II, U.S. industrial policy shifted towards supporting advanced technologies while reducing tariffs from 31.4% in 1944 to 10% by 1970[14] Group 2: Recent Trends and Policy Shifts - After the 2008 financial crisis, U.S. industrial policy saw a shift towards direct intervention and protectionism, with initiatives like the "Reindustrialization" strategy under the Obama administration[39] - The Biden administration has implemented significant subsidies for key industries, including $430 billion for climate and clean energy initiatives[46] - U.S. high-tech product exports are projected to rise from $153.89 billion in 2018 to $232.91 billion by 2024, increasing their share of manufactured exports from 18.5% to 24.3%[50] Group 3: Global Value Chain Dynamics - U.S. participation in global value chains increased from 37% in 2007 to 41% in 2022, driven primarily by the service sector[51] - Despite U.S. efforts, the global value chain remains diversified, with China's foreign value added in global exports rising from 19% in 2007 to 22% in 2021[61] - U.S. manufacturing value added as a percentage of GDP decreased from 13% in 2002 to 10% in 2024, indicating a trend of "hollowing out" in manufacturing[50]

Group 1: Market Growth and Trends - The "Guzi economy" market size in China is projected to grow from 58 billion yuan in 2020 to 168.9 billion yuan by 2024, nearly tripling in size[9] - By 2029, the overall market size is expected to reach 308.9 billion yuan[9] - The number of related enterprises in the Guzi economy has increased from 78,900 in 2015 to nearly 7 million by mid-2025, an increase of 87 times[9] Group 2: Consumer Demographics - Consumers aged 18 to 40 account for over 78% of Guzi product purchases, with the Gen Z demographic contributing more than 50%[13] - Female consumers' share in the Guzi economy is projected to rise from 67% in 2023 to 78% by 2025[13] - High-tier cities account for over 80% of Guzi consumption, indicating potential growth in lower-tier markets[13] Group 3: Challenges and Recommendations - Insufficient copyright protection is harming the interests of original creators and consumers, necessitating stronger IP protection measures[34] - Market disorder due to irrational speculation is disrupting the Guzi economy, highlighting the need for regulatory oversight[34] - The industry faces challenges from homogenized competition, which limits growth potential, suggesting a need for innovation in IP development and product differentiation[36]

Group 1: Policy Effectiveness - The current recycling policy has significantly boosted sales of key consumer goods, particularly home appliances and communication devices, leading to a total sales increase of 1.1 trillion yuan by May 2025[6] - Home appliance consumption grew by 30.7% in the first half of 2025, contributing 25.1% to overall consumption growth, while communication devices increased by 24.1%, contributing 16.6%[6] - The policy has positively impacted the profitability of home appliance companies, with revenue growth rates for major firms like Midea and Haier reaching 13.9% and 27.36% respectively in Q1 2025[20] Group 2: Challenges and Issues - Some regions have experienced a disruption in subsidy funding, affecting market expectations and policy effectiveness, with reports of funding shortages since May 2025[32] - The policy has led to a "Matthew effect," concentrating tax revenues in manufacturing strong provinces, which diminishes the incentive for less developed regions to implement the policy[35] - The policy is facing diminishing returns after over a year of implementation, raising concerns about a potential "policy cliff" once the subsidies are withdrawn[41] Group 3: Recommendations - It is recommended to accelerate the disbursement and allocation of subsidy funds to stabilize market expectations and prevent funding interruptions[54] - Expanding the range of subsidized products and extending the subsidy duration are suggested to mitigate the risk of a "policy cliff" and maintain consumer demand[54] - The government should consider easing participation thresholds for small and medium enterprises to ensure broader access to the benefits of the policy[59]

Economic Growth - Yiwu's GDP average growth rate from 2012 to 2024 reached 8%, surpassing the national average of 6.3%[12] - In 2024, Yiwu's GDP totaled 250.35 billion yuan, accounting for 36.2% of Jinhua's total economic output[12] - The third industry contributed 70.2% to Yiwu's GDP in 2024, significantly higher than Zhejiang province's 58.5% and the national average of 56.7%[17] Trade and Market Dynamics - Yiwu's total market transaction volume in 2024 reached 315.06 billion yuan, an increase of 18.2%[18] - The China Commodity City achieved a transaction volume of 279.80 billion yuan in 2024, growing by 20%[18] - Yiwu's foreign trade scale surged from 25.50 billion yuan in 2011 to 668.92 billion yuan in 2024, a growth of 25.2 times[30] Export Characteristics - In 2024, Yiwu's exports through market procurement trade amounted to 471.76 billion yuan, representing 80.1% of total exports[32] - The top export destinations included the USA (83.57 billion yuan), India (28.42 billion yuan), and Mexico (24.01 billion yuan) in 2024[38] - Yiwu's export structure shows a significant reliance on labor-intensive products, with textiles and plastic products leading the categories[40] Challenges and Risks - The global economic environment has become increasingly complex, with trade protectionism and geopolitical tensions posing significant challenges[42] - The new round of tariff wars has impacted Yiwu's exports to the US, with tariffs increasing costs and leading to order cancellations[45] - Yiwu's emerging industries, such as photovoltaics, face overcapacity and external pressures, affecting their operational viability[64]

Group 1: Current State of Service Consumption in China - In 2023, service consumption accounted for 45.2% of total consumption in China, significantly lower than the US (67.5%), Japan (56.2%), and Germany (50.5%) [6] - China's per capita service consumption was approximately $2,317 in 2023, only 6% of the US level and about 20% of other major economies [8] - The total service consumption in China was about $3.3 trillion in 2023, which is only 26% of the US service consumption [7] Group 2: Factors Affecting Service Consumption Growth - Cultural factors lead to a lower average consumption tendency in China, with residents preferring savings over immediate consumption [25] - The quality of service supply in China is still developing, affecting consumer confidence and willingness to spend [28] - Urban-rural disparities result in lower overall service consumption, with urban residents spending 7-8 percentage points more on service consumption than rural residents [29] Group 3: Future Growth Potential and Recommendations - The Chinese government aims to promote service consumption growth in areas like catering, home services, and cultural entertainment, with a focus on sustainable development [33] - The health industry in China is projected to exceed $9 trillion by 2024, indicating significant growth potential in health-related services [48] - Financial services need to expand their coverage to support service consumption, with a focus on innovative and personalized financial products [56]

Group 1: Current State of Service Consumption in China - In 2023, service consumption accounted for 45.2% of total consumption in China, significantly lower than the US (67.5%), Japan (56.2%), and Germany (50.5%) [6] - China's per capita service consumption was approximately $2,317 in 2023, only 6% of the US level and about 20% of other major economies [8] - The total service consumption in China was about $3.3 trillion in 2023, which is only 26% of the US service consumption [7] Group 2: Factors Affecting Service Consumption Growth - Cultural factors lead to lower consumption willingness in China, with a higher emphasis on saving compared to developed economies [25] - The quality of service supply in China is still developing, affecting consumer confidence and willingness to spend [28] - Urban-rural disparities result in lower overall service consumption, with urban residents spending 7-8 percentage points more on service consumption than rural residents [29] Group 3: Future Growth Potential and Recommendations - The Chinese government aims to promote service consumption growth in areas like catering, home services, and cultural entertainment, with a focus on sustainable development [33] - The health industry in China is projected to exceed $9 trillion by 2024, indicating significant growth potential in health-related services [48] - The sports industry is expected to grow rapidly, with an average annual growth rate of over 13% from 2025 to 2030 [47]

Overall Export Competitiveness - Since joining the WTO, China's export competitiveness has shown a steady upward trend, with its global market share rising from 3.9% in 2000 to 14.2% in 2023[13][14] - China's trade surplus has expanded overall, with a cumulative current account surplus of $4.69 trillion from 1998 to 2023, primarily driven by a $7.7 trillion goods trade surplus[22] Structural Changes in Export Products - The global share of labor-intensive products has exhibited a "U-shaped" trend, while the competitiveness of technology-intensive and capital-intensive products has improved, albeit from a lower global share[10][11] - The number of products with comparative advantages has increased, with the RCA index showing that the number of products with an RCA value greater than 1 rose from 46 in 2004 to 65 in 2023, and their share in total exports increased from 47% to 67%[39] Impact of External Factors - The trade friction with the U.S. and the COVID-19 pandemic have significantly impacted certain labor-intensive and raw material-intensive products, but the overall export share has continued to grow since 2018[17][21] - The diversification of export destinations has increased, with ASEAN's share of exports rising by 4.5 percentage points since 2017, compensating for a decline in exports to the U.S.[18] Price Competitiveness - In 2023, China's goods export price index fell by 7.5%, which is significantly higher than the global decline of 4%, enhancing export competitiveness but raising concerns about overcapacity[18]

Group 1 - The report highlights that during the business adjustment period, revenue was under pressure, but it is expected to return to a growth trajectory in 2025 for 汇通达网络 [4][5] - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 600.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 27.1%, and a net profit of 4.6 billion yuan, down 33.8% [4][5] - The company is focusing on optimizing its business structure and enhancing supply chain capabilities, which are expected to support a return to normal growth in 2025 [5][6] Group 2 - 生益科技 reported a revenue of 203.88 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.92%, and a net profit of 17.39 billion yuan, up 49.37% [9][10] - The growth was driven by strong demand in AI computing and recovery in consumer electronics, with significant sales increases in various product categories [10][11] - The company is increasing its investment in high-end product research and development to enhance its core competitiveness [11][12] Group 3 - 亚盛医药 achieved a total revenue of 9.81 billion yuan in 2024, a remarkable year-on-year growth of 335.68%, although it reported a net loss of 4.05 billion yuan [15][16] - The company’s product, 耐立克, showed strong market performance with a sales revenue of 2.41 billion yuan in China, up 52% [16][17] - The company is advancing multiple clinical trials for its products, which are expected to drive future growth [16][17] Group 4 - 云图控股 reported a revenue of 203.81 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 6.37%, with a net profit of 8.04 billion yuan, down 9.80% [19][20] - The decline was primarily due to falling prices and sales volumes of key products like soda ash and yellow phosphorus [20][21] - The company is enhancing its integrated supply chain strategy to stabilize raw material supply and optimize product structure [24][25] Group 5 - 蓝思科技 achieved a revenue of 698.97 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 28.27%, with a net profit of 36.24 billion yuan, up 19.94% [27][28] - The company is benefiting from the AI wave in consumer electronics, with significant growth in its smartphone and computer segments [29][30] - The company is expanding its presence in the smart automotive sector, with a revenue of 59.35 billion yuan from related products, up 18.73% [30][31] Group 6 - 恒瑞医药 reported a revenue of 279.85 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 22.63%, and a net profit of 63.37 billion yuan, up 47.28% [34][35] - The growth was driven by the sales of innovative drugs, which reached 138.92 billion yuan, despite facing competitive pressures [36][37] - The company is pursuing international partnerships to enhance its drug development pipeline and revenue growth [36][37] Group 7 - 卫星化学 expects a significant year-on-year increase in net profit for Q1 2025, projected between 14.5 billion and 16.5 billion yuan, representing a growth of 41.79% to 61.35% [38][39] - The company is benefiting from stable production operations and improved pricing for its products [39][40] - The ongoing development of its α-olefin comprehensive utilization project is expected to support long-term growth [42][43]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable expansion in the banking sector with an overall recovery in profitability, while asset quality has slightly declined and capital adequacy remains relatively stable [2][5][15]. Core Insights - The global banking industry is facing both opportunities and challenges due to the evolving geopolitical landscape, with a focus on high-quality development in the banking sector in China [2][5]. - The report highlights the impact of the Trump 2.0 era on U.S. financial deregulation policies and the implications for the banking sector, including the acceleration of the global net-zero emissions financial landscape [2][5][12]. Summary by Sections Global Banking Industry Overview - The global banking environment is experiencing increased uncertainty, with a projected global economic growth rate of 2.4% in 2025, down from 2.7% in 2024 [6][18]. - Major economies are entering a rate-cutting cycle, which may lead to a cautious expansion in banking sector size, particularly in the U.S. and Eurozone [18][19]. Profitability Trends - The profitability of the banking sector is expected to improve, with U.S. banks projected to see a net profit increase of 6.6% in the first half of 2025 [19][21]. - European banks are also expected to experience a slight recovery in profitability, although some banks may still face challenges due to regulatory pressures [20][21]. Asset Quality - There is a noted decline in asset quality across major economies, with the U.S. banking sector's non-performing loans increasing by 16.7% year-on-year [22][24]. - Emerging economies are showing resilience, with some banks maintaining stable asset quality despite the overall decline in developed markets [23][24]. Capital Adequacy - Capital adequacy ratios are relatively stable, with U.S. banks reporting a capital adequacy ratio of 15.71% at the end of 2024, an increase of 0.46 percentage points [25][26]. - Emerging market banks are expected to have more room for capital replenishment due to better profitability [25][26]. Strategic Adjustments - Major banks are actively adjusting their global strategies in response to changing economic policies and geopolitical tensions, with HSBC and MUFG making significant divestments and acquisitions [34][35]. - The report notes a trend of large banks reducing operational costs through layoffs and branch closures to enhance profitability amid uncertainty [36]. Cryptocurrency Market Engagement - Global banks are increasingly engaging in the cryptocurrency market, with Standard Chartered and Citigroup planning to offer diversified financial services related to digital assets [33].