Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is not explicitly stated in the provided content, but it can be inferred that the overall market sentiment is cautious, particularly towards the coal and utility sectors, which have shown underperformance [4][36]. Core Views - The textile, retail, and light manufacturing sectors performed well this week, while non-ferrous metals, utilities, and coal sectors lagged behind [2][3]. - The market experienced a low open and high close, with the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuating around 3300 points [3]. - There is a cautious outlook for the upcoming week, with a focus on whether market momentum can be sustained and if industry rotation can continue smoothly [3]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.81%, while the CSI 300 increased by 1.32%. The CSI 1000 and ChiNext Index saw gains of 2.63% and 3.34%, respectively [4][23]. - The utility sector underperformed, ranking 30th out of 31 sectors with a decline of 0.10%, while the coal sector ranked 29th with a slight decrease of 0.02% [4][23]. - The top-performing stocks in the utility sector included Xin Zhu Co., ST Lingda, and Tianfu Energy, with increases of 15.57%, 11.71%, and 10.54%, respectively [36]. Industry Dynamics - Zhejiang has been approved to build the first national hub for bulk commodity resource allocation, aiming to enhance its capabilities in oil and gas and expand the range of resources managed [27][28]. - A national roadmap for the unified electricity market has been released, with goals set for 2025, 2029, and 2035 to establish and perfect the market [29][31]. - The average price of Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal was reported at 722 RMB/ton, showing a slight year-on-year decline [32]. Company Dynamics Utility Sector - The utility sector saw mixed performance, with significant gains for Xin Zhu Co. and ST Lingda, while companies like Shimao Energy and Water Development Gas experienced notable declines [36][37]. Coal Sector - In the coal sector, Yunwei Co., Antai Group, and Anyuan Coal Industry were the top gainers, while Yanzhou Coal, Zhengzhou Coal Electricity, and China Coal Energy faced losses [38][41].

Market Overview - The three major indices experienced slight fluctuations today, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.12%, the CSI 300 down by 0.21%, the Shenzhen Component down by 0.84%, the ChiNext down by 1.15%, and the SSE 50 up by 0.41%[4] - The banking sector showed strong performance, with gains of 0.92%, while the power equipment, computer, and automotive sectors saw declines of -2.14%, -1.99%, and -1.89% respectively[4] Monetary Policy - On November 26, 2024, the People's Bank of China conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 299.3 billion yuan at a fixed rate with a bid rate of 1.5% to maintain reasonable liquidity in the banking system[3] - This monetary policy adjustment aims to enhance market liquidity support and stabilize market expectations[3] Trading Activity - Today's trading volume in the two markets was 1.305 trillion yuan, a decrease of 185.2 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day[4] - The banking sector's price-to-earnings (P/E) and price-to-book (P/B) ratios are currently at relatively low historical levels, indicating a certain investment value due to stable performance and high safety margins[4] Upcoming Events - On November 27, 2024, the U.S. Department of Commerce will release the PCE price index and core PCE price index data for October[5] - Recent comments from Federal Reserve officials suggest a more cautious outlook on future inflation, indicating ongoing uncertainty in monetary policy[5]

Profit Trends - From January to October 2024, the total profit of large-scale industrial enterprises in China reached CNY 58,680.4 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 4.3%[3] - In October, the profit of large-scale industrial enterprises fell by 10.0% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed significantly by 17.1 percentage points compared to September[3] Sector Performance - In October, the profit decline in the raw materials manufacturing and consumer goods manufacturing sectors narrowed by 27.7 and 20.4 percentage points, respectively, due to a recovery in consumer demand and continued growth in industrial exports[4] - The textile, clothing, and chemical fiber industries saw profit increases of 53.3%, 65.2%, and 32.2% year-on-year, respectively[4] High-Tech Manufacturing - High-tech manufacturing profits grew by 12.9% year-on-year in October, significantly outperforming the overall profit level of large-scale industrial enterprises by 22.9 percentage points[5] - Key sectors such as wearable smart devices and lithium-ion battery manufacturing reported profit increases of 73.3% and 39.4% year-on-year, respectively[5] Economic Policy Impact - The narrowing of profit declines in October was supported by coordinated efforts of existing and new policies aimed at stabilizing growth, which began to take effect from September 24[3]

川财证券研究报告 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------|------------|------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------| | 今日三大指数回落，重点关注稳外贸政策措施 | | | —首席观市系列报告 | | 所属部门：总量研究部 | | 报告类别：宏观研究报告 | 报告时间： 2024 年 11 月 22 日 | | 分析师：陈雳 | 执业证书： | S1100517060001 | 联系方式： chenli@cczq.com | | 联系人：马骏 | 执业证书： | S1100123090005 | 联系方式： majun@cczq.com | | 北京： 丰台区金丽南路华电产融大厦 11 楼， | 100073 | 深圳：福田区福华三路 | 100 号鼎和大厦 D 座 13 层 1303-1305 ， 518026 | | 上海： 浦东新区国展路 839 号，2001 ...

Group 1: ESG International Standard - The International Organization for Standardization (ISO) has released the world's first ESG international standard, ISO ESG IWA 48, at the COP29 conference[3] - This standard provides a framework for implementing Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) principles, ensuring global, standardized, and reliable ESG reporting[3] - The framework aims to enhance corporate ESG performance and accelerate the adoption of sustainable business practices globally[3] Group 2: China's Role in ESG Standards - China has actively participated in the development of the ESG standard, responding to global demands and contributing its experiences[3] - A total of 42 experts from various fields in China were selected to participate in the research and drafting of the principles framework[3] - The establishment of a Chinese ESG evaluation system is significant for improving corporate governance and enhancing international market competitiveness[3] Group 3: Risks and Considerations - There are risks associated with international policy changes, climate change, and insufficient quality and quantity of disclosed information[4]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the traditional energy industry, but it provides insights into market performance and sector dynamics [50]. Core Insights - In the third week of November 2024, various sectors such as comprehensive trade retail and textiles performed well, while social services, food and beverage, and communications lagged behind. The market indices experienced a general decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuating between 3200 and 3400 points, closing with a small bearish candlestick [2][3]. - The report indicates that market sentiment is primarily focused on AI applications and stocks with consecutive gains, suggesting a defensive stance in the coal and electricity sectors, which may perform better in the upcoming week [3][4]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.91%, while the CSI 300 dropped by 2.60%. The Shenwan first-level public utility equipment industry rose by 0.89%, ranking 7th out of 31 sectors, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.80 percentage points. The Shenwan first-level coal industry increased by 2.77%, ranking 2nd out of 31 sectors, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 4.68 percentage points [4][23]. - The top three stocks in the public utility sector were Dongfang Huanyu, Shui Fa Gas, and Guang'an Aizhong, with gains of 24.46%, 14.49%, and 13.32%, respectively. Conversely, the top three decliners were Xin Zhu Co., ST Lingda, and Huitian Thermal Power, with declines of -8.88%, -7.04%, and -5.47% [35][38]. Industry Dynamics - Shanxi's Xinzhou has maintained an annual coal output exceeding 100 million tons for four consecutive years, with advanced coal production capacity accounting for 96.43% [27]. - In Xinjiang, green electricity trading volume has surpassed 5 billion kilowatt-hours this year, marking a 3.6-fold increase compared to the previous year [29][31]. - As of November 22, the average weekly price of 5500 kcal thermal coal in Qinhuangdao was 726 RMB/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous week. The weekly average price of Shanxi coking coal was 1297.08 RMB/ton, down by 11.25 RMB/ton, marking a six-week consecutive decline [33][34].

Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing development of the global carbon market, which is becoming an essential tool for countries to address climate change through carbon pricing mechanisms [4][24]. - The approval of Article 6.4 of the Paris Agreement is seen as a historic moment that lays a solid foundation for global carbon trading, allowing countries to trade emission allowances and facilitating financial flows towards developing countries with potential carbon-related projects [4][24]. - For China, the implementation of Article 6.4 will align its CCER mechanism and carbon credit trading with global markets, enhancing international funding support for green technology exports and energy transition projects, thereby boosting the competitiveness of Chinese enterprises globally [4][24]. Market Highlights - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) plans to increase support for the "two new" policies, aiming to benefit the public and improve economic conditions [2][9]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is focused on enhancing the coordination between investment and financing functions in the capital market, promoting a multi-tiered market system to support technological innovation [2][9]. - A new round of fee reductions for large-scale ETFs is anticipated, which may impact the investment landscape [2][10]. Industry Research - The report discusses the increasing fire safety risks associated with the growing number of new energy vehicles, prompting regulatory bodies to enhance safety standards for battery technology and management [13]. - The establishment of the "Belt and Road" International Technology Transfer Center in the Chengdu-Chongqing region is expected to create a robust international technology transfer system by 2026, enhancing the region's role in global technology innovation [13].

Group 1 - The report highlights the recent approval of Article 6.4 of the Paris Agreement, which establishes a framework for global carbon trading, facilitating the exchange of emission allowances among countries [31][34]. - The global carbon market is evolving, with an increasing number of countries developing or planning to establish carbon trading systems, driven by the urgency of carbon reduction tasks [37]. - The report suggests that China's carbon market can align with global standards through mechanisms like CCER and carbon credit trading, enhancing international funding for green technology exports and energy transition projects [34][37]. Group 2 - The report indicates that the Chinese government is focusing on improving the carbon market's collaborative mechanisms to better seize international opportunities in carbon trading [37]. - It emphasizes the need for China to learn from developed countries' experiences in carbon market development, establishing a clear roadmap and enhancing the trading system [37]. - The report also discusses the potential for diversified and digital carbon financial products to attract more capital into low-carbon reduction sectors [37].

Macroeconomic Overview - The macroeconomic environment shows signs of recovery, with significant acceleration in the year-on-year growth rate of social retail sales, increasing by 1.6 percentage points compared to the previous value, driven by the effectiveness of the old-for-new consumption policy and the boost from the "Golden Week" holiday [3][17]. - Industrial production remains stable, with a year-on-year increase of 5.3% in October, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The manufacturing sector leads with a growth rate of 5.4%, supported by improvements in the equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors, which grew by 6.6% and 9.4% respectively [17][18]. Bond Market - As of November 15, the one-year AA-AAA credit spread narrowed by 6.51 basis points to 22.62 basis points, while the three-year AA-AAA credit spread narrowed by 4.99 basis points to 29.79 basis points. The ten-year minus one-year government bond yield spread widened by 0.68 basis points to 70.73 basis points, suggesting a focus on longer-duration bonds with moderate credit ratings [5][19]. Commodity Market Steel and Cement - As of November 15, the operating rate of short-process steel mills was 67.71%, a slight increase, while long-process steel mills remained steady at 55.00%. The cement price index reached 166.44, higher than the previous week, indicating potential stabilization and recovery in cement prices due to fixed asset investment [4][23]. Pork and Vegetables - The average wholesale price of pork was 23.85 yuan per kilogram, down by 0.39 yuan from the previous week but up by 17.66% year-on-year. The average wholesale price of six monitored fruits was 7.18 yuan per kilogram, down by 0.04 yuan week-on-week but up by 5.74% year-on-year. The average price of 28 monitored vegetables was 5.05 yuan per kilogram, down by 0.15 yuan week-on-week but up by 10.75% year-on-year [24][26]. A-Share Market Index and Industry Performance - As of November 15, major indices experienced declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 3.52%, the CSI 300 down 3.29%, and the Shenzhen Component down 3.70%. The media sector was the only one to see an increase, rising by 1.07%, while real estate and defense sectors faced significant declines of -8.92% and -8.79% respectively [6][30]. Current Valuation - The overall market valuation is considered reasonable, with the Shanghai Composite Index's price-to-earnings ratio at 14.37 times, within the historical 28.76% percentile. The ChiNext Index's price-to-earnings ratio stands at 34.46 times, within the historical 14.53% percentile, indicating potential investment value [30][31]. Market Activity - The trading activity remains high, with an average trading volume of 880.44 billion yuan for the Shanghai Composite Index and 1,266.11 billion yuan for the Shenzhen Component, totaling 2,146.55 billion yuan. The total number of newly established funds rose to 44.099 billion shares, indicating a rebound in market activity [33].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the renewable energy industry Core Insights - The renewable energy sector, particularly solar and wind power, is experiencing significant growth, with notable increases in project capacities and market activities [4][21][55] - The solar photovoltaic (PV) market is seeing price stabilization across various segments, with expectations for price recovery due to supply-demand dynamics and upcoming seasonal demand [19][39] - Wind power projects are showing a rebound in new installations, with a substantial year-on-year increase in capacity [4][21] Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance Review - Major indices collectively declined during the week of November 8-15, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 3.52% and the Shenzhen Component Index down 3.70% [2][26] - The Shenwan Electric Equipment Index closed at 7562.85 points, reflecting a weekly decline of 2.66% [2][28] 2. Solar Energy - The price of silicon materials remains stable, with average prices for polysilicon at 40 CNY/kg and dense material at 36.5 CNY/kg [19][39] - The demand for smaller-sized silicon wafers is increasing, leading to price adjustments, while M10 battery cells maintain stable pricing due to balanced supply and demand [19][39] - The average bidding price for solar modules is reported between 0.62-0.70 CNY/W for centralized projects and 0.65-0.74 CNY/W for distributed projects [19][39] 3. Wind Energy - In October, the newly added wind power project capacity reached 13.607 GW, marking a month-on-month increase of 4.96% [4][21] - The total wind power capacity opened for bidding in 2024 has reached 136.39 GW, a 65.6% increase compared to the same period last year [4][21] 4. Energy Storage & Hydrogen Energy - The week saw a continuation of the downward trend in energy storage system and EPC projects, with 18 new bidding projects totaling 1.16 GW/19.09 GWh [22] - The average bidding price for energy storage systems is reported at 0.972 CNY/Wh, with a range between 0.812-1.395 CNY/Wh [22] - Strategic agreements for hydrogen station development have been signed in Chongqing, Guizhou, and Guangxi, promoting hydrogen energy vehicles for freight [22][25] 5. Industry Dynamics - The Guangxi Energy Bureau has announced a redistribution of renewable energy project recovery indicators for 2024, aiming to allocate up to 4 million kW for land-based projects [48] - The U.S. International Trade Commission has extended its investigation into specific photovoltaic connectors and components, impacting market dynamics [49] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported a 34.0% increase in industrial wind power generation in October, indicating a robust growth trend [50]