| --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------|------------|------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------| | 川财证券研究所晨报 \n所属部门：总量研究部 | | 报告类别：其他研究报告 | 报告时间： 2024 年 11 月 5 日 | | 分析师：徐国勇 | 执业证书： | S1100524060001 | 联系方式： xuguoyong@cczq.com | | 北京：丰台区金丽南路华电产融大厦 11 楼， | 100073 | 深圳：福田区福华三路 | 100 号鼎和大厦 D 座 13 层 1303-1305，518026 | | 上海：浦东新区国展路 839 号，200126 | | 成都：高新区交子大道 | 177 号中海国际中心 B 座 17 楼，610041 | ❖ 每日热点 十四届全国人大常委会第十二次会议在京举行 国务院国资委党委 11 月 4 日召开扩大会 ...

| --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 制造业景气度提高，社零同比增速加快 | | 川财证券研究报告 —宏观月度报告 | | 所属部门：总量研究部 | 报告类别：策略研究报告 | 报告时间： 2024 年 11 月 4 日 | | 分析师：陈雳 | 执业证书： S1100517060001 | 联系方式： chenli@cczq.com | | 联系人：马骏 | 执业证书： S1100123090005 | 联系方式： majun@cczq.com | | 北京：丰台区金丽南路华电产融大厦 11 楼， 100073 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - As of October 31, the Hang Seng Index fell by 3.86% to 20,317.33 points, while the Hang Seng Technology Index decreased by 5.32% to 4,499.15 points [2][9] - The S&P 500 Index dropped by 0.99% to 5,705.45 points, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 1.34% to 41,763.46 points [3][12] - The Shanghai Composite Index declined by 1.7% to 14.4 times TTM P/E ratio, indicating a reasonable valuation level [4][14] Group 2: Sector Performance - In the Hong Kong market, the healthcare, consumer staples, and materials sectors experienced the largest declines, with drops of -11.7%, -8.88%, and -8.39% respectively [2][9] - In the U.S. market, the financial, communication services, and energy sectors saw gains of 2.55%, 1.8%, and 0.71% respectively, while healthcare, materials, and real estate sectors faced declines of -4.73%, -3.55%, and -3.41% [3][12] - In the A-share market, the electronics and computer sectors led the gains with increases of 14.65% and 14.46% respectively, while food and beverage, coal, and petrochemical sectors faced declines of -9.44%, -8.04%, and -7.08% [4][14] Group 3: Growth Drivers - The rapid growth in the electronics sector is supported by an 18.13% revenue increase and a 37.04% net profit growth in the first three quarters [5][15] - The development of artificial intelligence and smart vehicles is driving demand in the consumer electronics and semiconductor sectors [6][15] - The low-altitude economy is projected to exceed 500 billion yuan in 2023 and is expected to reach 2 trillion yuan by 2030, indicating strong growth potential [6][16] Group 4: Future Outlook - The report suggests focusing on the low-altitude economy and the autonomous driving industry, which is expected to experience significant growth due to supportive government policies [6][16] - The current A-share market is deemed to have reasonable overall valuations, providing investment opportunities [4][14]

Manufacturing PMI Overview - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for October is 50.1%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a recovery in manufacturing sentiment[2] - This marks the second consecutive month of improvement in manufacturing PMI, attributed to ongoing macroeconomic policy support[2] Enterprise Size Analysis - Large enterprises reported a PMI of 51.5%, up 0.9 percentage points, indicating strong support for manufacturing recovery[2] - Medium-sized enterprises saw a PMI of 49.4%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points, showing some improvement in sentiment[2] - Small enterprises experienced a decline in PMI to 47.5%, down 1.0 percentage points, suggesting a need for further stabilization in their economic recovery[2] Production and Demand Indicators - The production index for October is 52.0%, rising 0.8 percentage points, indicating continued expansion in production activities[3] - The new orders index stands at 50.0%, up 0.1 percentage points, reflecting a slight recovery in demand[3] Business Confidence and Future Outlook - The business activity expectation index increased to 54.0%, up 2.0 percentage points, showing heightened confidence among manufacturers regarding market developments[3] - Key sectors such as food and beverage, black metal smelting, and automotive show particularly high confidence, with indices above 57.0%[3] Policy Implications - Ongoing policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market and expanding domestic demand are expected to further enhance business confidence and market conditions[3] - The introduction of supportive policies for private enterprises is anticipated to gradually improve the sentiment of small and medium-sized enterprises[2]

Group 1: Macro Economic Insights - The GDP growth rate for the first three quarters of 2024 is 4.8% year-on-year, with a notable increase in industrial added value of 5.4% in September, up by 0.9 percentage points from the previous value [10][11] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 3.4% year-on-year in the first nine months, with manufacturing investment showing strong support at a growth rate of 9.2% [11] - The retail sales of consumer goods in September grew by 3.2% year-on-year, a significant increase of 1.1 percentage points compared to the previous month, driven by policies such as automobile replacement subsidies [11] Group 2: Policy and Market Dynamics - The People's Bank of China has initiated a buyout reverse repurchase tool in open market operations, indicating a proactive monetary policy stance [5][6] - The European Central Bank's Vice President highlighted ongoing challenges in controlling inflation, suggesting that geopolitical conflicts and extreme weather could impact economic stability [8] - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the need for strong, unconventional policy measures to boost economic confidence and growth [6][7] Group 3: Industry Focus - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as autonomous driving, low-altitude economy, and artificial intelligence as potential investment opportunities [3][5] - The promotion of new energy vehicles within government agencies is expected to drive incremental demand in the new energy sector, with a target of at least 30% for new energy vehicles in public service vehicle updates [8] - The internationalization of the Renminbi is progressing, with significant growth in cross-border payment volumes and a stable share in global trade financing [8]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is not explicitly stated in the report, but it suggests a focus on defensive strategies and low-valued sub-industries for potential investment opportunities [3][22]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the overall market in October experienced a high opening followed by a decline, with significant movements in financial, technology, and restructuring sectors. The electronic, computer, and comprehensive sectors led the gains, while food and beverage, coal, and oil sectors performed poorly [2][3]. - Key factors influencing the market in November include the results of the U.S. elections, the pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and the implementation of domestic monetary and fiscal policies [3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of market volume and profitability effects, suggesting that the market is likely to experience wide fluctuations, with sustainability depending on industry rotation and maintaining profitability [2][3]. Market Performance - From September 30 to October 31, 2024, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.70%, while the CSI 300 dropped by 3.16%. The CSI 1000 increased by 7.14%, and the ChiNext Index rose by 6.03%. The public utility sector declined by 4.16%, ranking 26th out of 31 sectors, and the coal sector fell by 8.04%, ranking 30th out of 31 sectors [1][7]. Industry Dynamics - Shanxi Province is deepening reforms in mining rights, expecting to add 24 million tons of coal production capacity, which will generate approximately 68.483 billion yuan in fiscal revenue [10]. - The first unit of a large pumped storage power station in Ningbo, Zhejiang, has been successfully put into operation, enhancing the grid's peak-shaving capacity by 700,000 kilowatts [12][13]. Company Dynamics Public Utility Sector - The top three performing stocks in the public utility sector for the month were Dazhong Public Utility (47.09%), Tianfu Energy (34.53%), and Xichang Electric Power (31.16%). The worst performers included Lantian Gas (-18.32%), Huaneng Hydropower (-15.76%), and Shaanxi Energy (-13.97%) [16][17]. Coal Sector - In the coal sector, the top three performing stocks were Yunwei Co. (18.02%), Antai Group (15.98%), and Zhengzhou Coal Electric (9.84%). The worst performers were Lu'an Environmental Energy (-17.28%), Lanhua Sci-Tech (-16.15%), and Haohua Energy (-14.97%) [18][19].

Group 1: Overall Market Performance - The overall performance of listed companies in the Sichuan-Chongqing region was good this month, with the Sichuan Composite Index rising by 5.93% and the Chongqing Composite Index increasing by 7.33% [2][9] - The PE ratio for the Sichuan sector was 28.38 times, indicating an increase in overall valuation levels, while the Chongqing sector had a PE ratio of 27.44 times, also reflecting a rise in valuation [2][9] - The top three performing sectors in the Sichuan-Chongqing region were home appliances (+49.36%), construction decoration (+48.94%), and defense industry (+36.43%) [2][9] Group 2: New Energy Vehicle Industry - The penetration rate of domestic new energy vehicles is continuously increasing, with the Sichuan-Chongqing region's related industrial chain experiencing rapid growth [3][10] - The sales of new energy vehicles in China have maintained rapid growth since 2020, with significant increases in market share [3][10] - The Sichuan region saw a 71.9% increase in single crystal silicon production, a 59.7% increase in lithium-ion batteries, and a 45.7% increase in polycrystalline silicon in the first three quarters [10][11] Group 3: Machinery Manufacturing Sector - The machinery manufacturing industry is expected to see new growth momentum driven by equipment updates and the relocation of industries to the western region [4][12] - The government has emphasized large-scale equipment updates and technology transformation, which is expected to enhance demand for machinery and equipment in the Sichuan-Chongqing region [4][12] - Policies encouraging the transfer of capital, technology, and labor-intensive industries from the eastern to the western regions will further boost machinery equipment demand [4][13]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but it can be inferred that the traditional energy sector is under scrutiny due to economic growth concerns and fluctuating prices [19]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the real estate, steel, and retail sectors performed well, while defense, communications, and pharmaceutical sectors lagged behind. The market indices experienced a general decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuating between 3200 and 3400 points [2][4]. - The report suggests a cautious optimism for the upcoming week, focusing on whether market volume can be maintained and if industry rotation can continue smoothly [3]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.84%, the CSI 300 by 1.68%, and the ChiNext Index by 4.47%. The public utilities sector saw a slight increase of 0.31%, while the coal sector decreased by 0.59% [4][8]. - In the public utilities sector, the top three performing stocks were Dazhong Public Utility (25.79%), Langfang Development (20.28%), and Shimao Energy (18.47%). The worst performers included Jiuzhou Group (-10.32%), Jingneng Thermal Power (-8.05%), and Hunan Development (-7.23%) [14]. - In the coal sector, the top three performing stocks were Antai Group (10.82%), Yongtai Energy (7.69%), and Yunmei Energy (6.37%). The worst performers were Xindazhou A (-11.44%), Lu'an Environmental Energy (-7.57%), and Huaihe Energy (-7.39%) [15]. Industry Dynamics - Shanxi Province is deepening its mining rights market reform, expecting to add 24 million tons of coal production capacity, which will also generate approximately 68.483 billion yuan in fiscal revenue [10]. - Shanxi is actively constructing a new energy system, promoting coal-aluminum co-mining reforms, and enhancing the management of coalbed methane [12][13].

川财证券研究报告 新能源产业月报：风光行业反内卷共识已达成，盈利能力改善可 期 —新能源产业十月月报 所属部门：行业公司部 分析师：孙灿 报告类别：行业研究报告 执业证书：S1100517100001 报告时间：2024 年 11 月 3 日 联系方式：suncan@cczq.com 北京：丰台区金丽南路华电产融大厦 11 楼，100073 上海：浦东新区国展路 839 号，200126 深圳：福田区福华三路 100 号鼎和大厦 D 座 13 层 1303-1305，518026 成都：高新区交子大道 177 号中海国际中心 B 座 17 楼，610041 ❖ 本月市场表现回顾 截至10月31日收盘，本月三大指数分化，上证指数下跌1.70%，深证成指上涨0.58%， 创业板指下跌 0.49%，沪深 300 下跌 3.16%。本月电力设备指数实现收涨，截至 10 月 31 日收盘，申万电力设备指数收报 7775.8 点，月涨幅达 4.34%，在 31 只指数中排名第 11。 本月，电力设备子板块仅电网设备小幅收跌，光伏设备及风电设备表现亮眼。具体来 看，各板块按涨幅依次为光伏设备、风电设备、电池、电网设备，涨跌 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in cultural enterprises' revenue, reaching 99,668 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.9% [3][8] - The cultural service sector showed the highest growth rate among cultural industries, with a revenue increase of 7.6%, contributing significantly to the overall revenue growth of cultural enterprises [3][8] - The report suggests a positive outlook for the cultural service industry, which now accounts for 53.3% of total cultural enterprise revenue, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous year [3][8] Market Highlights - The report notes a decline in major stock indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.61% and the ChiNext Index down by 1.18% [8] - The AI application sector is highlighted as a strong performer, driven by advancements in AI technologies and products [9] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring macroeconomic policies and their potential impact on market stability, particularly regarding consumer demand and debt management [9] Industry Developments - The report discusses the implementation of new policies to support the automotive industry, including subsidies for electric vehicle purchases in Shanghai [4] - It mentions the establishment of new energy and storage projects in Shenyang, aiming for a new storage capacity of 800,000 kilowatts by 2025 and 1,600,000 kilowatts by 2030 [6] - The report highlights the rapid growth of the new energy vehicle sector in Chongqing, with production exceeding 594,300 units in the first three quarters of 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 130% [6]