川财证券研究报告 | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 货币政策适度宽松，财政政策更加积极 | | \n—宏观动态点评 | | 所属部门：总量研究部 | 报告类别：宏观研究报告 | 报告时间： 2024 年 12 月 9 日 | | 分析师：陈雳 | 执业证书： S1100517060001 | 联系方式： chenli@cczq.com | | 联系人：马骏 | 执业证书： S1100123090005 | 联系方式： majun@cczq.com | | 北京：丰台区金丽南路华电产融大厦 11 楼， 100073 ...

| --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | 2024 年海外市场回顾与 | 2025 年展望 | 海外深度（20241205） | | 所属部门：总量研究部 | 报告类别：策略研究报告 | 报告时间：2024 年 12 月 05 日 | | 分析师：任莉 | 执业证书：S1100524100001 | 联系方式：renli@cczq.com | | 北京：丰台区金丽南路华电产融大厦 11 楼， 100073 上海：浦东新区国展路 839 号，200126 | 深圳：福田区福华三路 成都：高新区交子大道 | 100 号鼎和大厦 D ...

| --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 新能源产业周报： 2024 \n所属部门：行业公司部 \n分析师：孙灿 \n北京：丰台区金丽南路华电产融大厦 11 楼， 100073 | \n执业证书： | 光伏行业年度大会召开 \n报告类别：行业研究报告 \n ...

| --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------|---------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | 所属部门：行业公司部 | 报告类别：行业研究报告 | —新能源行业 2025 年度策略报告 报告时间： 2024 年 12 月 4 日 | | 分析师：孙灿 | 执业证书： S1100517100001 | 联系方式： suncan@cczq.com | | 北京：丰台区金丽南路华电产融大厦 11 楼， 100073 | 深圳：福田区福华三路 | 100 号鼎和大厦 D 座 13 层 1303-1305，518026 | | 上海：浦东新区国展路 839 号， 200126 | 成都：高新区交子大道 | 177 号中海国际中心 B 座 17 楼， 610041 | ❖ 光伏 颗粒硅有望凭借成本及工艺优势持续渗透原材料环节。一方面，颗粒硅 ...

Market Review - The major indices showed strong performance in 2024, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 11.82%, the CSI 300 Index up by 14.15%, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 11.41%, the ChiNext Index up by 17.59%, and the SSE 50 Index up by 12.84% [21] - Non-bank financials, banking, and communications sectors led the gains, with increases of 34.59%, 25.97%, and 23.40% respectively, while sectors like pharmaceuticals, agriculture, and food & beverage declined by -9.29%, -7.80%, and -6.90% respectively [21] - The non-bank financial sector was driven by supportive policies such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and the study of stabilization funds, while the banking sector benefited from low valuations and high dividend yields [21] - The communications sector performed well due to the rapid development of digital economy and AI, with a year-on-year net profit growth of 8.48% in the first three quarters [21] Market Liquidity - The average daily trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets in 2024 was 9974.83 billion yuan, a 14.08% increase compared to 2023 [34] - The margin trading balance on the Shanghai Stock Exchange reached 9432.54 billion yuan, up 13.49% from the beginning of the year, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange margin balance was 8812.97 billion yuan, up 17.09% [34] - IPO activity declined significantly, with only 89 companies listed in 2024, raising 580.48 billion yuan, compared to 313 companies and 3565.39 billion yuan in 2023 [34] - Refinancing activities also dropped sharply, with equity refinancing down 75.73% and convertible bond financing down 68.08% compared to 2023 [35] Market Valuation - The Shanghai Composite Index's P/E ratio was 14.36x, at the 28.79% percentile historically, while the P/B ratio was 1.32x, at the 26.11% percentile, indicating reasonable valuations [26] - The ChiNext Index's P/E ratio was 34.27x, at the 14.34% percentile, and the P/B ratio was 4.12x, at the 19.53% percentile, also suggesting reasonable valuations [26] - Sectors like steel, real estate, and building materials had high P/E percentiles due to declining earnings, while utilities, food & beverage, and social services had low P/E percentiles due to stable earnings but significant price declines [26] Institutional Holdings - At the end of Q3 2024, institutional holdings of A-shares totaled 43.76 trillion yuan, with banks, non-bank financials, and food & beverage sectors holding the largest market values at 6.18 trillion yuan, 3.59 trillion yuan, and 3.54 trillion yuan respectively [31] - The proportion of institutional holdings in the free float market declined, with sectors like social services, light manufacturing, and retail seeing smaller declines, while construction, electronics, and non-ferrous metals saw larger declines [31] M&A and Restructuring - M&A activity in 2024 increased slightly, with 107 M&A events recorded, driven by supportive policies encouraging companies to optimize and strengthen through M&A [43] - The main reasons for M&A included horizontal integration (30%), strategic integration (11%), and asset adjustments (11%), with most M&A deals involving share issuance for asset purchases or agreement acquisitions [46][48] - Private enterprises led M&A activity, with 59 deals, followed by local state-owned enterprises (31 deals) and central state-owned enterprises (9 deals) [49] New Productive Forces - Low-altitude economy is a key focus, with China's low-altitude economy exceeding 5000 billion yuan in 2023 and expected to reach 2 trillion yuan by 2030 [53] - Solid-state batteries are gaining traction, with major battery manufacturers like CATL and Huawei accelerating R&D, offering advantages such as higher energy density and faster charging [64] - Autonomous driving is poised for rapid growth, with policies supporting the industry and domestic companies like Baidu reporting significant increases in autonomous driving orders [67] Undervalued State-Owned Enterprises - As of November 29, 2024, there were 58 "undervalued" state-owned enterprises (SOEs) with P/B ratios below 1, primarily in sectors like steel, building materials, and banking [68] - Regulatory policies are pushing for SOEs to improve their valuations, with requirements for undervalued companies to disclose plans for valuation enhancement [68]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable investment outlook for traditional energy sectors, particularly focusing on coal and nuclear power segments [1]. Core Insights - The coal price is expected to continue a narrow downward trend, with electric coal demand maintaining growth in the medium to long term, while non-electric demand is projected to decline [2]. - The coal sector is anticipated to attract medium to long-term capital due to reduced price volatility and stable profitability, offering predictable high dividend prospects [3]. - Thermal power is evolving to serve as a regulatory power source, with market reforms enhancing profitability stability [4]. - Hydropower and nuclear power assets are viewed as essential components for resisting economic cycle fluctuations, with stable investment returns and dividend expectations [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review of Traditional Energy Sectors in 2024 - Coal supply growth is weakening, leading to downward pressure on prices, with seasonal factors affecting demand [18]. - The overall coal price is stabilizing despite fluctuations, with a higher price midpoint established compared to previous years [20]. 2. Review and Outlook of Power Reform Policies in 2024 - The acceleration of electricity marketization is emphasized, with significant growth in market transaction volumes [53]. - The establishment of a unified electricity market framework is underway, enhancing market efficiency and resource allocation [54]. 3. Trends in Traditional Energy Sectors for 2025 - Coal remains a primary energy source, with overall energy consumption expected to grow steadily [3.1.1]. - Domestic coal production lacks elasticity, with imports becoming a significant supply variable [3.2.1]. 4. Stability of Earnings, Returns, and Dividend Expectations in Traditional Energy Sectors - The coal sector is projected to experience a stable earnings outlook, with a focus on the regulatory role of thermal power [4.1.1][4.2.1]. - Hydropower and nuclear power are highlighted for their stable operational characteristics and reasonable investment returns [4.2.2].

川财证券研究报告 | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------|-----------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------| | 三大指数走强，海南板块领涨 | | —首席观市系列报告 | | 所属部门：总量研究部 | 报告类别：宏观研究报告 | 报告时间：2024 年 12 月 02 日 | | 分析师：陈雳 | 执业证书：S1100517060001 | 联系方式：chenli@cczq.com | | 联系人：马骏 | 执业证书：S1100123090005 | 联系方式：majun@cczq.com | | 北京： 丰台区金丽南路华电产融大厦 11 楼， | 100073 深圳：福田区福华三路 | 100 号鼎和大厦 D 座 13 层 1303-1305，518026 | | 上海： 浦东新区国展路 839 号，200126 | 成都：高新区交子大道 | 177 号中海国际中心 B 座 17 楼，610041 | ...

川财证券研究报告 | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 三大指数小幅回落，社会服务板块走强 | | —首席观市系列报告 | | 所属部门：总量研究部 | 报告类别：宏观研究报告 | 报告时间：2024 年 11 月 25 日 | | 分析师：陈雳 | 执业证书：S1100517060001 | 联系方式：chenli@cczq.com | | 联系人：马骏 | 执业证书：S1100123090005 | 联系方式：majun@cczq.com | | 北京： 丰台区金丽南路华电产融大厦 11 楼， 100073 上海： 浦东新区国展 ...

| --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------|------------|------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | | 新能源产业周报：工信部修订《光伏制造行业规范条件》 | | | 川财证券研究报告 —新能源产业十一月周报 | | 所属部门：行业公司部 | | 报告类别：行业研究报告 | 报告时间： 2024 年 11 月 25 日 | | 分析师：孙灿 | 执业证书： | S1100517100001 | 联系方式： suncan@cczq.com | | 北京：丰台区金丽南路华电产融大厦 11 楼， 100073 | | 深圳：福田区福华三路 | 100 号鼎和大厦 D 座 13 层 1303-1305，518026 | | 上海：浦东新区国展路 839 号， 200126 | | 成都：高新区交子大道 | 177 号中海国际中心 B 座 17 楼 ...

| --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------|---------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 全国统一电力市场发展路线图和时间表出炉 \n所属部门：行业公司部 \n分析师：孙灿 | \n执业证书： | —传统能源行业 \n报告类别：行业研究报告 \nS1100517100001 | 川财证券研究报告 2024 年 12 月月报 \n报告时间： 2024 年 12 月 1 日 \n联系方式： Suncan@cczq.com | | 北京： 丰台区金丽南路华电产融大厦 11 楼， | 100073 | 深圳：福田区福 ...