Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" [2] Core Viewpoints - The Spring Festival has driven an increase in consumer spending, leading to a recovery in the sales of liquor, with ongoing differentiation in performance across price segments and brands [5][7] - During the Spring Festival, the total liquor consumption is expected to be flat or slightly increased compared to the same period last year, with variations in demand based on price segments, brands, regions, and consumption scenarios [5][7] - High-end liquor shows resilient demand, while the mid-range segment faces pressure; premium brands like Moutai and Wuliangye perform well in terms of sales and inventory management [5][7] - The overall performance of liquor during the Spring Festival exceeded previous market pessimism, supported by rigid demand from gifting and social gatherings [5][9] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The Spring Festival saw 474 million domestic tourist trips, a year-on-year increase of 34.3%, with total spending reaching 632.687 billion, up 47.3% year-on-year [7] - The liquor market is experiencing a recovery, with high-end liquor maintaining strong sales due to rigid gifting demand, while the mass market benefits from social gatherings and changing consumer habits [5][7] Liquor Market Insights - High-end liquor brands like Moutai and Wuliangye are seeing faster cash return rates compared to last year, with Moutai's return rate around 25-30% and Wuliangye's target at 60% [7][9] - Regional performance varies, with East China and Shanxi showing strong results, while Jiangsu remains stable [7][9] Investment Recommendations - Suggested stocks to consider include Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, and others in the dairy and seasoning sectors, as they are expected to benefit from the ongoing recovery in consumer demand [5][9]

海外宏观研究报告——国际数据跟踪（2.12-2.16） | --- | --- | |--------------------------------|-------| | C P I 数 据 \nCPI 当月同比 | 3.1% | | 核心 CPI 当月同比 | 3.9% | | CPI 季调环比 | 0.3% | | 核心 CPI 季调环比 | 0.4% | | 数据来源：同花顺 iFinD | | ➢ 美国零售销售额出现锐降：美国 1 月零售销售总额同比增速达 0.65%， ➢ 风险提示：美国经济韧性超预期，地缘政治风险，通胀反弹风险，金融 部门流动性风险。 1.1 美国零售销售额. 报告目录 1. 宏观数据分析 南京证券股份有限公司 NNAANNJJIINNGG SSEECCUURRIITTIIEESS CCOO...LLTTDD 2024 年 2 月 19 日 [Table_IndustryInfo] 美 国 C P I 图 表 ⚫ 摘要 ➢ 美国物价环比超预期攀升：美国 1 月 CPI 当月同比增加 3.1%，超出预期 水平 2.9%，增速较上月减少 0.3pct；核心 CPI 当月同比达 3.9 ...

南南南 京京京 证证证 券券券 股股股 份份份 有有有 限限限 公公公 司司司 2023年2月16日 NNN AAA N JN JN J III NNN GGG S S S EEE CCC UUU RRR III TTT III EEE S S S CCC OOO ... L TL TL T DDD 行业研究报告 农林牧渔（801010） [Table_MainInfo] 节后猪价如期回落，去化延续但速度或受限 行业评级： 中性 [Table_IndustryInfo]  生猪养殖: 节后猪价如期回落，去化延续但速度或受限 近一年该行业相对沪深 300 走势 根据农村农业部数据，2024 年第 6 周（02/03-02/09）商品猪均价 为15.61元/公斤，较上周提升0.32%；截至02/18日，根据涌益咨询， 全国生猪销售均价为14.26元/公斤，较节前（02/06）回落0.78元/公斤， 生猪屠宰量同步回落，逐渐进入消费淡季；下游猪肉均价26.07元/公斤， 环比提升2.96%。根据博亚和讯数据，15kg仔猪2024年第6周全国均 价33.47元/公斤，环比提升6.42%，行业15kg仔猪生产成本约 ...