Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the impact of tariffs and trade dynamics on the Chinese export market, particularly in relation to the U.S. and Japan's monetary policies [10][8][2]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Tariff Impact on Exports**: Tariffs are becoming a significant variable affecting the macroeconomic environment for the upcoming year. China's exports are expected to shift from consumer goods to intermediate and capital goods, integrating more deeply into the global supply chain [10][8]. 2. **U.S. Retail Sales Data**: In June 2024, U.S. retail sales showed a month-on-month growth rate of 0%, which was better than the expected -0.3%. Core retail sales (excluding automobiles and gasoline) increased by 0.4% [10][8]. 3. **Monetary Policy Expectations**: The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September is high, with market expectations at 93.3%. This follows a trend of declining consumer confidence and rising unemployment rates [10][8]. 4. **Japan's Monetary Policy**: Investors are highly interested in the Bank of Japan's potential interest rate hike in July. If the rate is increased, it is expected that the market will remain cautious for a while [10][8]. 5. **Consumer Behavior Trends**: Despite a cooling trend in U.S. consumer spending, the resilience of certain sectors, such as furniture and appliances, indicates a gradual recovery in consumer confidence [10][8]. Additional Important Content 1. **Export Strategies**: High import dependency products exhibit "export grabbing" characteristics, which are strategies employed to mitigate the impact of tariffs. This includes shifting exports to intermediate goods and capital goods [10][8]. 2. **Long-term Export Trends**: The long-term outlook suggests that China will increasingly embed itself in the production processes of emerging economies, countering the "decoupling" narrative from certain countries [10][8]. 3. **Market Sentiment**: The market is reacting to the dovish statements from Fed Chair Powell, which have heightened expectations for a rate cut, influencing trading behaviors in the bond and gold markets [10][8]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, focusing on the implications of tariffs, monetary policy, and consumer behavior in the context of the Chinese and U.S. economies.

各位投资者,大家下午好,我是吕钊,现在负责中金的大类资产配置研究。加入中金之前,我长期在纽约UBS瑞银集团以及美联储从事宏观策略工作,今天很荣幸向大家分享一下我们的最新研究观点。 有一个说法叫做今年下半年最大的机会是美联储降息最大的风险是美国总统大选 现在我们下半年可以说是两个重大事件叠加全球资产的路径是非常复杂不确定性也非常高预测起来很困难由于水平有限也许我们的结论也未必正确但是希望我们的分享能够抛砖引玉激发思考帮助大家更好的进行投资决策我们先看美联储江西 我们中金大力资产团队对于美联储降息是比较乐观的在几个月之前我们就反复的向大家讲降息可能来得很快不会等到很靠后现在市场进入的九月份降息的概率已经超过90%甚至接近100%基本已经成了一只雨季 为什么我们对于美联储降息如此乐观主要是因为我们预测美国的通胀美国的增长都会明显的下行尤其是美国的通胀我们预期我们的观点可能和其他很多团队有比较大的区别大家可以看这里有我们挂的我挂的我们大力资产团队在六七月份 发表的这个报告我们很早就提出来美国通胀一季度只是颠簸六七月份很快进来拐点美国通胀会很快的下行没有那么多的这个困难然后今年下半年呢也没有二次通胀的风险这个观点 在六 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **U.S. economy**, **Federal Reserve's interest rate policies**, and the **2024 U.S. presidential election**. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Federal Reserve Rate Cuts**: The market widely anticipates that the Federal Reserve will implement interest rate cuts in the second half of 2024, driven by expectations of declining inflation and economic growth [2][14][24]. 2. **Inflation Trends**: U.S. inflation is showing structural improvements, indicating a potential for continued downward trends, which is crucial for investment strategies [2][3][15]. 3. **Economic Slowdown**: After a strong first quarter, the U.S. economy is experiencing a slowdown in the second quarter, with various indicators such as PMI and non-farm payrolls reflecting downward risks [5][6][7]. 4. **Impact of the Presidential Election**: The upcoming presidential election introduces significant uncertainty into the market, affecting financial markets, particularly stocks, the dollar, and gold [2][10][12]. 5. **Investment Strategy Recommendations**: Investors are advised to adopt a cautious approach, focusing on sectors that may benefit from rate cuts, such as utilities, consumer goods, and healthcare [12][32]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Labor Market Discrepancies**: There are inconsistencies between non-farm payroll data and other labor market indicators, suggesting a cooling labor market with rising unemployment rates [18][21]. 2. **Real Estate Market Performance**: The real estate market is not showing the expected recovery, primarily due to high long-term interest rates suppressing housing demand [6][19]. 3. **Fiscal Policy Implications**: The differing fiscal policies of presidential candidates could lead to varying impacts on the financial markets, with potential increases in fiscal deficits affecting market stability [10][26]. 4. **Market Volatility Expectations**: Increased market volatility is anticipated, especially during the election period, due to policy uncertainties and historical trends [28]. 5. **Gold as an Investment**: There is a strong recommendation to overweight gold, as it benefits from both the anticipated rate cuts and potential fiscal stimulus, despite some valuation concerns [29]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and implications discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current economic landscape and investment outlook.

各位投资者上午好我是山外红云策略的吴敬韬欢迎大家收听本期的每周论述5分钟短期美联储降息预计集中发酵联邦基因利率隐含的9月美联储降息概率已上升至89.8%海外美联储降息交易已发酵了一段时间美股已经演绎出了转手为攻的行情体现为美股龙头调整而小盘股显著占优 美联储降息交易升温如何影响A股市场我们先做纯逻辑层面的推演讨论三个层次的影响第一层逻辑是海外流动性宽松美债收益下行美元指数回落人民币贬值压力缓和外资回流新兴市场A股也迎来了一定的外资回流那么分母端改善A股景气成长和核心资产就会出现反弹 第二层逻辑是海外宽松国内政策约束减少国内宽松可能进一步加满稳增长的效果也会相对应提升行情演绎是这个阶段稳增长受益的地产地产链银行就会有反弹行情第三层逻辑是若九月美联储降息落地大概率是预防式降息美国经济可能提前七月回升中美共振宽松可能带来中美经济同步改善 大宗商品供需紧平衡PK通胀就可能会很快再次出现此时周期股可能又会迎来新一轮的行情目前实际的市场实验是A股的美联储降息交易总体是偏弱的两个交易日反映了两个不同层次的逻辑 第一天还是分五端改善公务重仓加核心集团反弹第二天就演绎出了预期三中全会稳地产政策加码地产和银行反弹这种逻辑的快速切 ...

更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 South Africa: Deutsche Bank AG Johannesburg is incorporated in the Federal Republic of Germany (Branch Register Number in South Africa: 1998/003298/10). 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 Distributed on: 24/06/2024 17:10:11 GMT 7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPa Fed Watcher: Waiting for good data 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 Avik Chattopadhyay Research Associate avik-a.chattopadhyay@db.com Research D ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The U.S. economy has shown signs of cooling after a period of accelerated growth, with first-quarter growth halved compared to the previous quarter [5] - Inflation has re-accelerated, leading to a significant drop in market expectations for interest rate cuts from seven to only two for the year [5][18] - Despite the economic slowdown, the overall U.S. economy remains strong, with resilient growth preventing inflation from quickly returning to the 2% target [18][31] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The labor market is showing signs of rebalancing, with a decrease in labor demand and worsening job security for employees, despite a robust overall employment growth [23] - Small businesses are particularly affected by high input and wage costs, leading to reconsideration of hiring plans [8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The performance of risk assets remains positive, although there are increasing concerns about sustainability due to economic pressures [5][18] - The stock market's strong performance has been primarily driven by a few major companies, but there are emerging opportunities in non-tech sectors and international markets [15] Company Strategy and Development Direction and Industry Competition - The Federal Reserve's decision-making is complicated by persistent inflation and strong employment growth, making the timing of interest rate cuts uncertain [2][18] - The current economic environment, characterized by resilient growth and delayed rate cuts, is seen as favorable for investments in risk assets [18][31] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges the challenges posed by inflation and economic cooling but remains optimistic about the resilience of the economy and corporate earnings [18][31] - The outlook suggests that while inflation may slow, it is unlikely to drop significantly, indicating a short and shallow rate-cutting cycle [29] Other Important Information - Low-income households are experiencing economic strain, but middle-income households remain in good financial condition, supporting overall consumer spending [33] - The Federal Reserve is expected to be cautious with rate cuts, as inflation remains above their comfort zone [35] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the implications of the current economic environment for risk assets? - The current economic environment, with resilient growth and delayed rate cuts, is seen as favorable for risk assets, despite concerns about sustainability [18][31] Question: How is the labor market evolving in response to economic pressures? - The labor market is showing signs of rebalancing, with a decrease in labor demand and worsening job security, particularly affecting small businesses [8][23]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation peaked at 6.6% in September 2022 and has since rapidly decreased to 3.6% recently, indicating a significant decline in inflation rates over the past two years [2][3] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The analysis highlights that supply chain disruptions and labor market tightness were key factors in the inflation surge, with a combination of shocks leading to a peak inflation approximately 3 percentage points higher than the assumed steady-state level of 2% [3][19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The model indicates that the interaction between supply chain conditions and labor market dynamics has shifted, contributing to a faster decline in inflation as supply chain bottlenecks have eased and labor market pressures have lessened [6][11] Company Strategy and Development Direction and Industry Competition - The findings suggest that the recent normalization of supply chain conditions and reduced labor market tightness have allowed domestic producers to more effectively substitute between labor and imported inputs, leading to a quicker reduction in inflation [6][27] - Increased competition from foreign companies has further suppressed price increases among U.S. producers, adding downward pressure on prices [7][19] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management anticipates that as supply chain conditions normalize, the pressures that previously acted as amplifiers for inflation will diminish, leading to a more stable economic environment [11][27] - The model predicts that the same forces that drove inflation up will now contribute to its decline, suggesting a potential easing of inflationary pressures in the near future [6][11] Other Important Information - The analysis indicates that low-wage workers benefited from the early supply-side shocks post-COVID, experiencing strong wage growth, but recent trends show a decline in wage growth for these workers as the labor market dynamics shift [22][23] Q&A Session Summary Question: What factors contributed to the rapid inflation increase post-COVID? - The combination of supply chain bottlenecks, labor supply constraints, and reduced competition from foreign firms led to a significant inflation spike, with the model indicating a peak inflation rate approximately 3 percentage points above the steady-state level [3][19] Question: How is the company addressing the current inflationary environment? - The company is focusing on leveraging improved supply chain conditions and labor market dynamics to enhance operational efficiency and mitigate inflationary pressures [6][11]

Summary of Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion involves the National Strategy Company and its perspectives on the American market and monetary policy Core Points and Arguments - The company emphasizes the current market situation in America, focusing on the implications of delaying monetary policy adjustments until after a potential interest rate cut in the dollar market [1] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The call highlights the importance of understanding the timing of monetary policy changes and their potential impact on market dynamics [1]

Japanese Yen’s (JPY/USD) Plunge Showcases Fed’s Grip on Global Markets bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-26/yen-s-relentless-slide-showcases-fed- s-grip-on-global-markets By Carter Johnson and Anya Andrianova作者：卡特·约翰逊和安雅·安德⾥亚诺娃 Yen’s Relentless Drop Showcases Fed’s Grip on Global Markets⽇元持续下跌显示美联储对全 球市场的掌控 Japanese currency touches 38-year low as dollar climbs higher美元⾛⾼，⽇元触及38年来 新低 Yen intervention efforts seen failing, ‘all about the Fed’⽇元⼲预⾏动失败，“⼀切都与美联储有 关” A grim reality is setting in for Japanese ...

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