2022 年 4 月 NIFD季报 主编:李扬 中国宏观金融 殷剑峰 张旸 2024 年 8 月 《 NIFD 季报》是国家金融与发展实验室主要的集体研 究成果之一，旨在定期、系统、全面跟踪全球金融市场、 人民币汇率、国内宏观经济、中国宏观金融、国家资产负 债表、财政运行、金融监管、债券市场、股票市场、房地 产金融、保险业运行、机构投资者的资产管理等领域的动 态 ， 并 对 各 领 域 的 金 融 风 险 状 况 进 行 评 估 。 《 N I F D 季 报》由三个季度报告和一个年度报告构成。 NIFD 季度报 告于各季度结束后的第二个月发布，并在实验室微信公众 号和官方网站同时推出； NIFD 年度报告于下一年度 2 月 份发布。 房市调整要多久？ 摘 要 上半年国内经济持续恢复，制造业投资和出口成为经济增长 的主要支撑，而内需不振的现象依然比较突出，物价下跌的压力 十分严峻，各项金融指标正在"大失血"，核心症结在于房地产 市场正经历深度调整，其对经济的拖累，就像是溺水者脚上的石 块。现在的问题是，房地产市场还要调整多久？ 借鉴美国、日本房地产市场危机的经验，虽然发生的背景、 原因和过程存在相似之处，但是 ...

Investment Rating - The report emphasizes the need for a more proactive fiscal policy and deeper tax reform to address economic challenges, indicating a positive outlook for sectors benefiting from increased government spending and investment [3][42]. Core Insights - The fiscal performance in Q2 2024 reflects a normalization trend in the economy, with a notable decline in tax revenue due to downward pressure on economic growth and high base effects from VAT revenue [3][4]. - Non-tax revenue has shown positive growth, indicating a shift in revenue sources, while general public budget expenditures continue to follow a seasonal growth trajectory [3][4]. - The report highlights the challenges faced by local governments due to declining land sales and the need for increased fiscal support to manage debt risks effectively [3][4][42]. Summary by Sections 1. Fiscal Revenue Normalization - General public budget revenue in Q2 2024 was 55,036 billion CNY, showing a year-on-year decline of 6.4%, with tax revenue at 44,908 billion CNY, down 3.2%, while non-tax revenue increased by 13.7% to 10,128 billion CNY [7][10]. 2. Fiscal Expenditure Trends - General public budget expenditure in Q2 2024 reached 66,715 billion CNY, growing by 1.1% year-on-year, with central government expenditure increasing by 8.9% [14][16]. - Government fund expenditures continued to decline, with a 19.7% drop in Q2 2024, reflecting the impact of the real estate market adjustment [16][18]. 3. Fiscal Deficits and Debt Issuance - The combined fiscal deficit for the general public budget and government fund was 36,342 billion CNY in the first half of 2024, with a stable GDP ratio of 5.9% [18][20]. - Local government bond issuance decreased to 34,928 billion CNY in the first half of 2024, down 8,753 billion CNY from the previous year, indicating tighter fiscal conditions [21][23]. 4. Challenges Ahead - The report identifies potential challenges in the second half of 2024, including inflationary pressures in major economies and the need for coordinated monetary and fiscal policies to support economic growth [25][29]. - The ongoing low inflation and economic growth pressures highlight the difficulties in reversing the negative revenue growth trend, particularly in the context of local government land sales [29][42]. 5. Recommendations for Policy Action - The report advocates for a more aggressive fiscal policy, including increased local government bond issuance and enhanced coordination with monetary policy to stimulate demand and manage debt risks [42][43]. - It emphasizes the importance of tax reform and modernization of the governance system to improve fiscal sustainability and economic resilience [43][44].

Hello, everyone. Good afternoon. I'm Lily Shen from the Research Department of Aowei Cloud Network Channels. Now, let's start our half-year sharing with our partners in the home appliance industry. Today's topic is to break through the storage market and attract new users. We have a lot of dry goods today. It may take about half an hour. Some of the materials involved are not publicly available. Maybe when you get the material, you don't have the material in your hand. So now when I'm talking, I hope you li ...

NIFD季报 主编:李扬 债券市场 彭兴韵 周莉萍 彭林威 刘琦 2024 年 8 月 《 NIFD 季报》是国家金融与发展实验室主要的集体研 究成果之一，旨在定期、系统、全面跟踪全球金融市场、 人民币汇率、国内宏观经济、中国宏观金融、国家资产负 债表、财政运行、金融监管、债券市场、股票市场、房地 产金融、保险业运行、机构投资者的资产管理等领域的动 态， 并对各领域的金融风险状况进行评估。 《 NIFD 季 报》由三个季度报告和一个年度报告构成。NIFD季度报 告于各季度结束后的第二个月发布，并在实验室微信公众 号和官方网站同时推出：NIFD年度报告于下一年度 2 月 份发布。 债市流动性充裕，收益率整体下行 搞 2024 年二季度，3 月超预期通胀及非农等数据推迟了美联 储降息，共仅在 6 月议总会议中选择放线缩表，但二季度以未 通胀湿和下降，劳动力市场紫张也不断线解，支撑了美联储在本 年度 茅三、茅四季度至少降息一次的市场预期。欧夫行出于经济 增长考量，在二季度季先降息，但是否连续降息仍需数据验证。 日本二季度汇季深跌，二季度未美元兑日无汇季突破 1:160 关 口，但日本银行并未及时朵取行动。 中国人民 ...

好各位直播间的朋友们大家下午好我是奥威云网储备事业部沙利旺很荣幸在这里给大家做储备品类2024年上半年的市场总结希望下面的分享呢可以对大家日常经营决策能够起到帮助目前来看呢中国家电市场经过40年的快速发展可以说呢已经走过了增长的快速增长和高质量增长期整个家电行业进入了以产品迭代升级为主的慢增长周期 而目前又受到中国房地产市场的正在处于调整期和整体的消费者消费信心低迷等影响2024年家电市场发展的确比较艰难而对于储位产品来说应该说是更加艰难因为对于受房地产影响储位品类跟整个的房地产关联又比较大更多的受新房的减少的影响 所以说基于上半年市场的数据与我们今年上半年的一些企业的交流那我们如果说用一句话来总结2024年上半年的储备市场呢叫做低新增与弱换新的交织疲软期应该是而且基于基于上半年的一些的数据和其余企业的一些交流的总结呢我们也对整个的储备市场做了十点的思考与判断与大家分享一下 第一个呢是新低新增那中国当前的宏观经济环境呢呈现出稳中向好的态势包括上周国家统计局发布的GDP和社林支出呢都有积极的增长的趋势但对于整个的家电 行业来说压力依然存在一方面房地产行业的低迷对于整个的家装市场的带动力减小第二个国家统计局数据显 ...

朋友们大家上午好我是ofway云网的研究员葛静今天很荣幸能在这里跟大家分享2024年上半年中国白电视市场的一些表现今天我们的题目是需求不振下结构升级预组渠道博弈中价格战风火四起其实主要想分享的是两方面的内容第一方面就是在整个市场需求承压的情况下我们的各个品类无论是货品的结构还是价格的结构 在升级的这条道路上其实都是遇到了一些阻碍的那在整个渠道流量不支持的情况下渠道之间这种博弈中导致我们分品类的价格战也是重火四起那在进入到分品类的一个情况之前呢我们先看一下白链市场所面临的经济社会的一些环境上周 我们看到国家统计局其实发布了第二季度的GDP数据第二季度GDP增长是4.7%第一季度是5.3%这个数字其实相较于年初定制的全年5.0%的一个GDP增长目标还是有一定的差距从分项的表现来看我们发现内需的表现其实是弱于外需的出口GDP同比增长5.9%我们的收盈其实只有2.7% 作为普通消费者我们能感受到消费信心指数的这种下降的压力以及对于整个社会经济信心不足其实制约了家电消费需求的这样一个释放我们认为其实中国现在的经济仍处于L型区间里面在其内其实很难迎来较为强劲的这样一个反弹和复苏在L型的这样一个增长通道中 其实对于我们家电 ...

Global Foreign Exchange Market Overview - The US dollar index has shown a strong upward trend since the beginning of 2024, with most major currencies depreciating against the dollar, except for the Russian ruble, British pound, and South African rand, which saw slight appreciation [5] - From December 29, 2023, to July 19, 2024, the US dollar index rose from 101.38 to 104.37, an increase of 2.95% [5] - Emerging market currencies, such as the Argentine peso, Turkish lira, Mexican peso, Thai baht, and Indonesian rupiah, depreciated by 14.63%, 12.39%, 6.37%, 5.84%, and 5.15% respectively against the US dollar during the same period [5] - The Chinese yuan depreciated by 2.47% against the US dollar in the first half of 2024 [5] US Dollar Index Analysis - The US dollar index fluctuated between 101 and 106 in the first half of 2024, with three key uncertainties affecting its trajectory: the timing and path of the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening exit, geopolitical risks, and the potential impact of the US presidential election [8] - The US economy showed moderate growth with high inflation, with CPI and core CPI growth rates remaining above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, ranging between 3.1% and 3.9% from January to June 2024 [10] - The US presidential election in 2024 adds significant uncertainty, with potential outcomes affecting global risk assets and the dollar index [10] - Geopolitical risks, including conflicts in the Middle East, Ukraine, and the Red Sea, continue to drive demand for safe-haven assets like the US dollar [10] Japanese Yen Exchange Rate Analysis - The Japanese yen depreciated significantly against the US dollar in the first half of 2024, with the exchange rate falling from 141.03 yen per dollar to 157.50 yen per dollar, a depreciation of 11.68% [12] - The widening interest rate differential between the US and Japan (3.1% to 3.8%) was a major factor behind the yen's depreciation [13] - Japan's economic recovery showed signs of weakness, with IMF revising its 2024 GDP growth forecast for Japan down to 0.7% from 0.9% [15] - The Bank of Japan's potential interest rate hike in the second half of 2024 could lead to a rebound in the yen, with the exchange rate expected to stabilize between 135-145 yen per dollar by the end of 2024 [16] Chinese Yuan Exchange Rate Analysis - The Chinese yuan depreciated by 2.47% against the US dollar from December 29, 2023, to July 19, 2024, while the CFETS currency basket index appreciated by 1.82% during the same period [17] - The widening interest rate differential between the US and China (from 132 basis points to 199 basis points) contributed to capital outflows and yuan depreciation [20] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) used counter-cyclical adjustment factors to stabilize the yuan, with the daily midpoint rate consistently adjusted to prevent excessive depreciation [22] - In the second half of 2024, the yuan is expected to stabilize within the range of 7.00-7.20 against the US dollar, with potential appreciation to 7.10-7.20 by the end of the year [24]

Prized Prized Collecto on Occident on Occident Antimour Stationers Prized Station of Grannella Allah Francisco R Galerial Science (Promote Provincial Processorial (PS) ERIABIC NAME [ researchitel can ] BC2010/0800000000.00.1. #FLENERENDEDSPACES, #2014020000. OBATWEN, #2019-02-0500300071802-0890600. GEAMBER"--008080. ASSA #GM0020087. #120 (49.4/04/08/09/09/09/101) 01/10/20 发现在线观测试图图图片图片、免费电视剧《3D》与我的是NEX电视剧和图片图片的图片》的图片，用网 都在线图像"大发彩"的图书记录。 加拿大发时时彩2000年度10 ADDRESSFORE EXPERTECHLA BARRENERS: EDUCES FAR DEVARENER ...

证券研究报告·北交所公司深度报告·工程机械 五新隧装(835174) 隧道装备龙头,国家级专新特精"小巨人" 2024 年 07 月 22 日 买入(首次) | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------|---------|--------|----------|----------|----------| | 盈利预测与估值 [Table_EPS] | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 541.07 | 954.12 | 1,169.38 | 1,441.87 | 1,788.03 | | 同比 | (21.63) | 76.34 | 22.56 | 23.30 | 24.01 | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 77.75 | 163.69 | 187.76 | 235.62 | 296.73 | | 同比 | (21.33) | 110.55 | 14.70 | 25.49 | 25.93 | | EPS-最新摊薄(元/股) | 0.86 | ...

批国家队大举买入这些基金！全面 复盘国家队的布局20240718_1_导读 2024年07月19日 00:15 关键词 市场热点 光大证券 李泉 投资群 情绪 反弹 中枢震荡 技术面 五周均线 上涨 下跌 个股 板块 分化 基金 二 季报 国家队 持仓 业绩预告 中报 全文摘要 市场近期呈现出探底回升的趋势，板块和指数多数上涨，但个股间分化明显。国家队在基金市场和A股 市场中的行动引发关注，尤其关注其在二季报和中报季的布局策略。上市公司的中期业绩预告成为投资 的重要参考，引导市场聚焦基本面表现强劲的大企业。高端制造领域成为市场焦点，受益于经济转型和 新型生产力的推动。尽管多数A股指数上涨，但B股和北证50指数回调，展现市场分化。科技领域，尤 其是国产芯片和消费电子产品被视为发展重点。美国科技股下跌背景下，消费电子产品和数字芯片设计 领域依旧表现抢眼。北向资金连续三日净流出，但科技及中字头大盘蓝筹股仍是其偏好对象。市场技术 面处于短期、中期、长期均线粘合阶段，提示投资者需耐心等待技术性买入信号。光刻机及相关技术表 现强劲，国产芯片及轨交设备等领域亦展现出良好市场表现。即将到来的基金二季报密集发布期预计将 进一步 ...