Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the industry or the 2025 Project Core Insights - The 2025 Project is a comprehensive initiative led by conservative thinkers aimed at reshaping the U.S. government to facilitate a potential second term for Donald Trump, addressing concerns from his first term regarding preparedness and internal conflicts [1][2] - The initiative has gathered over 100 conservative groups and aims to create a detailed action plan for the first 180 days of a Trump administration, including a 900-page policy guide titled "Leadership Mission" [2] - Key policy proposals include abolishing the "administrative state," simplifying the federal income tax system, reducing corporate tax rates, and increasing military spending while prioritizing fossil fuel production [3][4][5] Summary by Sections - **2025 Project Overview**: The project is designed to prepare for a smooth transition should Trump return to office, addressing past issues of internal strife and legal challenges [1][2] - **Policy Recommendations**: The project suggests significant changes such as making it easier to fire federal employees, deploying military to the border, simplifying tax structures, and abolishing the Department of Education [2][3][4] - **Trump's Position**: Trump has distanced himself from the 2025 Project, criticizing some of its proposals as "absurd" while his campaign has focused on broader themes of dismantling the "deep state" and strengthening border enforcement [4][5] - **Involvement of Key Figures**: The project includes contributions from former Trump administration officials and aims to align with Trump's agenda, although there are noted differences in specific policy details [6][7]

APAC ETF Launch Roaster: September 2024 Rebecca Sin 团队: 策略 BI Senior ETF Analyst Athanasios Psarofagis 团队: 策略 BI ETF分析师 ETFs Set for Record After $477 Billion Third-Quarter Inflows (彭博⾏业研究) -- Global ETF inflows could hit a record this year with 3Q at a historical high of $477 billion. Asia-Pacific flows accounted for 23% of that flow, with mainland China contributing 60% of the region's, or $65 billion, as its so-called national team invested $33 billion. For more of our research, visit BI ETFSA . To subsc ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus of the conference call is on the **AI sector in China** and its fundraising dynamics, particularly in the context of the broader Asian market and global trends in AI investment [2][4]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Fundraising Challenges for AI Start-Ups** The total value of AI deals in China fell to **$600 million** in **2Q24**, marking an **85% decline** from the peak in **1Q21**. This decline reflects the pressures from China's slowing economy and higher interest rates affecting global private equity activity [3][5]. 2. **Quality Start-Ups Still Attracting Investment** Despite the overall decline, the fundraising window remains open for well-positioned start-ups. Notable AI start-ups like **Zhipu**, **Baichuan**, and **MiniMax** have secured significant investments, with major players like **Alibaba** and **Tencent** investing in **Moonshot AI** [3][5]. 3. **Consolidation in the AI Sector** The increasing financial pressure on AI start-ups due to competition and price wars in the Large Language Model segment is expected to lead to consolidation within the sector. This consolidation could result in an uptick in deal flows, albeit at reduced valuations [5][6]. 4. **China's Dominance in Asian AI Fundraising** China continues to dominate Asian private equity fundraising, supported by its advanced capabilities in AI and strong government backing. However, the average deal size in Asia remains smaller compared to the US and Europe [6]. 5. **Global AI Investment Trends** Global AI fundraising saw a significant increase of **89%** year-on-year to **$23.2 billion** in **2Q24**, with US firms raising **$15.2 billion**. This indicates a shift in investment dynamics, with US firms capturing the majority of new funding [8]. Additional Important Insights - The average deal size in the US reached **$28.9 million** in the first half of the year, reflecting a **55.4% increase** compared to the entirety of **2023**. Notable deals included **xAI** at **$6 billion** and **Anthropic** at **$2.8 billion** [8]. - The report suggests that transactions in the AI sector will likely remain subdued until external pressures on China's venture-capital sector ease [6]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the AI fundraising landscape in China and globally.

Foundry Market Set for 2025 Recovery Jake Silverman 团队: 科技 BI⾏业分析师 Kunjan Sobhani 团队: 科技 BI资深⾏业分析师 GlobalFoundries Is Benefiting From a Cyclical Chip Recovery (彭博⾏业研究) -- GlobalFoundries should benefit from a cyclical recovery for smartphones, Internet of Things and automotive chips as demand stabilizes and utilization improves from recent lows. Strong customer relationships through single-sourced business and repeated process-technology innovation could help assuage concerns of aggressive Chinese foundry c ...

北亚股市360：⼀周展望（10⽉29⽇当周） Marvin M Chen 团队: 策略 BI Senior Equity Strategist Jason Liao 团队: 策略 BI助理分析师 免责声明：本报告最初以英⽂发布，该翻译版本为彭博本地化团队和翻译服务公司的产品。如中、英⽂版本有任何 出⼊或歧义，概以英⽂原版为准。请点击此处查阅英⽂原版报告： Focus on Earnings May Spur Next Phase of China Stocks' Momentum 市场对盈利的关注或激发中国股票下⼀阶段的动能 (彭博⾏业研究) -- 随着刺激政策推动的流动性热潮趋缓，第三季度财报季可能成为中国股市的下⼀个催化剂。市 场普遍预期盈利增⻓13%，主要归因于科技公司业绩稳健，以及整体利润与2023年较⼩的基数相⽐降幅收窄。本 财报季收益预期上修的情形可能会持续。 (10/28/24) 1. 中国企业的收益表现有望得到基数效应的提振 随着美国⼤选结果出炉，北亚和全球其他市场可能会继续下跌。在习近平主席对中国科技硬件（尤其是以中芯国际 为代表的半导体⾏业）表⽰肯定后，该板块呈现稳定态势。第三季度财报季的 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion revolves around the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, highlighting its implications for the Middle East region. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Long-standing Conflict**: The conflict between Israel and Iran has been a significant factor in Middle Eastern tensions for decades, characterized by indirect confrontations and proxy warfare [1] 2. **Escalation of Violence**: Recent events, including the war between Israel and Hamas, have intensified the conflict, with direct military actions from both sides, including missile strikes and air raids [1][2] 3. **Iran's Support for Militants**: Iran's backing of militant groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah is a central aspect of its opposition to Israel, with accusations of Iran's nuclear ambitions further complicating relations [2][3] 4. **Role of Hezbollah**: Hezbollah has been actively involved in the conflict, launching attacks against Israel and serving as a key ally for Iran in the region [3] 5. **Syria as a Battleground**: The Syrian civil war has allowed Iran to establish a military presence, which Israel views as a direct threat, leading to increased Israeli airstrikes against Iranian targets in Syria [4] 6. **Maritime Conflicts**: Since 2019, there have been numerous attacks on commercial vessels linked to both nations, indicating a broader maritime conflict [5] 7. **Regional Militants**: Various militant groups across the Middle East, including Hamas, Hezbollah, and Houthi rebels, receive support from Iran, further complicating the regional security landscape [6] 8. **Direct Attacks on Each Other's Territory**: For the first time, both nations have engaged in direct attacks on each other's territory, marking a significant escalation in their conflict [7] 9. **Military Capabilities**: Israel maintains a technological advantage over Iran, bolstered by U.S. military support, while Iran relies on older military technology and seeks to enhance its capabilities through partnerships, particularly with Russia [8] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Nuclear Concerns**: Israel perceives Iran's potential nuclear capabilities as an existential threat, leading to preemptive military strategies [2][8] 2. **Cyber Warfare**: Both nations have engaged in cyber operations against each other, with Israel suspected of various attacks on Iranian infrastructure [7] 3. **Proxy Warfare Dynamics**: The use of proxy groups by Iran to exert influence in the region is a critical aspect of its strategy against Israel, complicating direct confrontations [6] 4. **Iran's Military Development**: Despite sanctions, Iran has been developing its military capabilities, including missile technology, to counter Israel's advanced defense systems [8]

彭博：中国地方债务市场违约金额创历史新高 尽管有政府支持，散户投资者仍难以获得偿付 非标准债务违约率升至创纪录水平 中国地方债务市场不透明角落的违约率飙升至历史新高，令那些以为这些证券有 国家隐性担保的投资者陷入困境。 事情不应该是这样的。去年，面对地方政府融资部门发行的大量坏账，中国中央 政府采取了行动。中央政府允许地方政府发行约 2.2 万亿元人民币（合 3090 亿 美元）的新债券，以帮助偿还债权人，并命令国有银行提供额外的再融资支持。 这些措施将借贷成本推至历史最低水平，投资者纷纷涌入市场，争相购买债券和 贷款。但有一个环节并未得到解决。所谓的非标准产品（即未公开交易的固定收 益投资）的失败率飙升至创纪录水平。 来源：金融中国信息技术有限公司 注：1-9月数据 虽然没有官方统计该行业的规模，但分析师估计约为 8,000 亿美元。数据提供 商中国金融信息技术有限公司的数据显示，今年前 9 个月，与地方政府融资平 台挂钩的非标准产品有 60 只违约或警告有偿付风险，较去年同期增长 20%。这 一数字仍然相对较小，但正在增长，创下了 2019 年以来的数据记录。 事实证明，违约对于许多散户投资者来说代价高昂 ...

彭博：中国如何规划近年来最大力度削减隐性债务 财政部长兰福安 10 月宣布，中国将很快启动多年来规模最大的地方政府债务风 险处置工作。这引发了人们对大规模置换所谓隐性债务的预期，这将使大量借款 进入地方政府的官方资产负债表。人们希望这一过程能降低违约风险、降低偿债 成本，并让地方官员有更大的空间来支持经济增长。 什么是"隐性债务"？其数额有多少？ 该术语指的是地方政府的资产负债表外负债。其中大部分都与地方政府融资平台 有关。地方政府融资平台是代表各省和城市借款以资助道路、桥梁、机场和工业 园区等基础设施投资的公司。2008 年底，中国推出大规模刺激计划以抵消全球 金融危机的影响，地方政府融资平台迅速涌现。当时，地方政府没有正式获得发 行债券的许可，因此他们成立了地方政府融资平台来筹集资金并为投资提供资金。 目前尚无官方数据显示隐藏债务的余额。国际货币基金组织估计，截至去年，地 方政府融资平台的债务总额超过 60 万亿元人民币（8.43 万亿美元），相当于 中国国内生产总值的一半左右。 国际货币基金组织估计，截至 2023 年，地方政府融资平台借款将达到 60 万亿元 人民币 资料来源: 国际货币基金组织 注： ...

由于交易员等待政府定于周六举行的财政政策发布会的结果，中国股市在周四早 盘出现波动。 截至当地时间上午 11:12，沪深 300 指数上涨 2.8%，此前该指数在涨跌之间波 动。该基准指数在前一交易日暴跌 7.1%，创下 2020 年以来的最大单日跌幅。 周五，在香港上市的中国股票指数在香港假期前上涨逾 4%。 交易员们寄希望于财政部的通报将带来更多催化剂，以维持自 9 月底北京推出 一系列货币刺激措施后开始的反弹。到目前为止，该计划中还没有大规模的财政 措施，基金经理和策略师警告称，如果承诺没有得到真金白银的支持，反弹可能 又是一场虚幻的曙光。 据国务院新闻办公室报道，财政部长蓝福安预计将于周六介绍加强财政政策以促 进增长的举措，并回答记者的提问。 嘉信理财首席全球投资策略师 Jeffrey Kleintop 表示："投资者仍然希望财政 部能够宣布批准在今年的预算基础上发行额外的政府债券，以支持财政支出。财 政部要实现市场的预期，难度很大。" 截至目前，成交额已超过周二创纪录的 3.43 万亿元人民币（4850 亿美元）的 三分之一。 截至周二，沪深 300 指数较 9 月份的低点上涨逾 30%，但周三因交 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Chinese government is expected to announce significant fiscal stimulus measures to boost economic growth, following weaker-than-expected stimulus announcements [1] - The market anticipates a stimulus plan ranging from 2 trillion yuan (approximately 283 billion USD) to 3 trillion yuan [1][2] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The recent measures include interest rate cuts and increased liquidity to promote bank lending, which have led to a significant rise in the stock market by approximately 30% [2] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Shanghai Composite Index has seen reduced losses due to speculation about potential fiscal stimulus announcements [1] - Offshore yuan has continued to rise by 0.2% in response to market expectations [1] Company Strategy and Development Direction and Industry Competition - The government emphasizes the need for fiscal policy to support economic growth, indicating a shift towards more proactive measures to address economic challenges [1][2] - The People's Bank of China is reforming its policy framework to enhance the effectiveness of monetary adjustments and manage liquidity risks in the bond market [2] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Chinese Premier Li Qiang highlighted the importance of listening to market voices when formulating economic policies, reflecting a responsive approach to private sector and investor concerns [1] - The urgency for confidence-boosting measures is evident as economic growth has slowed to its lowest level in five quarters [2] Other Important Information - The government has committed to supporting the stock market with up to 340 billion USD, indicating a strong focus on stabilizing financial markets [2] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the expected fiscal stimulus measures? - Analysts expect the stimulus plan to include support for local government financing, infrastructure investment, consumption promotion, and bank capital restructuring [1] Question: How is the central bank coordinating with the finance ministry? - The central bank recently held its first joint meeting with the finance ministry to discuss enhancing the monetary policy toolbox and gradually increasing sovereign bond trading in the open market [2]