更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 Good morning. Goldman sees upside pressure for US stocks and bonds. Yellen hopes China won't mount major trade retaliation against DC. Chinese crypto miner ordered off land near US missile base. Here's what's moving markets. — Isabelle Lee 早上好。高盛认为美国股市和债券面临上行压力。耶伦希望中国不会对华盛顿 发起重大贸易报复。中国加密矿商下令离开美国导弹基地附近的陆地。这就是 市场的动因。 — 伊莎贝尔ꞏ李 Upside risk 上行风险 Trade retaliation 贸易报复 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 Alternatives fund 另类基金 US stocks and bonds are facing an upsi ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a differentiated profit path across the global automotive industry, with Chinese automakers poised for growth while European and American automakers face pressure [2][6]. Core Insights - The automotive industry is experiencing a significant shift, with over 90% of new vehicle sales in the U.S. being trucks and SUVs, and a forecast of 10 million electric vehicles sold in China by 2025, accounting for half of new car sales [5][6]. - The report highlights that U.S. automakers may see a decline in average EBIT margins by up to 200 basis points, while European automakers are expected to face stagnation in profit growth [6][11]. - Chinese automakers are expected to experience a profit turnaround, with EBIT margins projected to increase by 100-200 basis points due to rising electric vehicle production [7][11]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Overview - The automotive industry is embracing technology, leading to a divergence in profit paths across regions [5]. - The report notes that the truck business for U.S. automakers has peaked, with inventory turnover rates negatively impacting profits [7]. Section 2: Catalysts to Watch - The transition to electrification is slow, with various competitors challenging Tesla's lead in the electric vehicle market [9]. - Key milestones include the anticipated profitability of Li Auto in late 2023 and the introduction of new BEV models by major brands [10]. Section 3: Profit Path Divergence - Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers are likely to turn profitable, with Li Auto expected to achieve this milestone ahead of NIO [11]. - U.S. automakers are projected to see a decline in operational profit margins, while European automakers face increased pricing pressure [11][12]. Section 4: Competitive Landscape - Japanese automakers are expected to benefit from favorable currency exchange rates and strong demand, leading to profit growth in the upcoming fiscal years [48]. Section 5: Stock Performance and Valuation - The global automotive sector's valuation has declined from pandemic highs, with significant variations in expected price-to-book ratios among different automakers [8]. - High-end and luxury performance car manufacturers have shown strong performance, with notable stock price increases for brands like Aston Martin and Tesla [8]. Section 6: Company Impact Analysis - The report emphasizes that traditional U.S. automakers are heavily reliant on truck and SUV sales, with limited room for further growth in these segments [28][35]. - The profitability of electric vehicle segments remains uncertain, with significant losses reported by Ford's BEV division [35][37].