更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪要 关注公众号:水木纪要 Global Uranium U.S. EUP inventories up on Russian ban. Analyzing Japanese reactor restarts. Estimate Change Bullish U3O8: U.S. restocking + Japanese demand upside We think that the latest data on U.S. utility uranium inventory and contracting indicate a potential U.S. restocking trend that would add support to our bullish view on uranium (U3O8) prices. We examine the bull and bear cases on Japanese demand and point to fairly material potential upside to demand from this historic ...

L. 2024年07月10日 22:37 宏图101：全球石油库存显示出历史最大缺口 1. 美债时机 近几个月来，随着收益率曲线从深度倒挂状态变得陡峭，劳动力 市场出现问题，以及增长放缓迹象日益明显，美国经济衰退的风 险显著增加，而盈利预期仍然不切实际。 Source: Bloomberg; Tavi Costa 1. 二手车价格 MANHEIM USED VEHICLE VALUE INDEX June 2024 Jee. 2006 2008 Jan. Jan 2012 Jan. 2014 Jan 2016 2020 2002 2004 2018 2022 2000 2024 全球黄金ETF在上半年出现了近70亿美元的资金外流。然而,这一 趋势似乎正在转变，因为ETF在6月份连续第二个月录得资金流入 (+14亿美元），主要由欧洲和亚洲的基金推动。 Regional gold ETF flows and the gold price* 3 2,400 2 2,300 1 2,200 2,100 0 US$bn 2,000 -2 1,900 -3 1,800 -4 1,700 -5 1,600 Feb-24 F ...

半导体行业月度深度跟踪-全球电子大厂持续发 力AI，关注科八条影响和24Q2业绩趋势20240709_导读 2024年07月10日 01:36 关键词 半导体 需求端 政策端 并购重组 库存 产能利用率 产业链跟踪 景气度 处理器 MCU 存储 模拟 功率 价格 上涨 销售额 AI 苹果 高通 三星 台积电 全文摘要 近期半导体行业展现出复苏强劲态势，尤其在第二季度，消费需求的增强推动了芯片公司销售和库存水 平的改善。服务器市场，特别是AI服务器和传统服务器领域的需求增长，进一步促进了市场的发展。尽 管存在减产现象，存储产品价格上涨，预示着产能利用率有望回升。随着Android和iOS手机销量的增 长，以及PC、可穿戴设备、AR/VR/MR和服务器市场的积极增长，全球半导体产业正处在一个景气上升 期。AI芯片市场和存储器市场的需求持续增加，促进了相关企业的业绩改善和市场竞争力提升。模拟行 业的并购重组活动也引起了关注，这可能是为了快速扩充产品线和优化竞争格局。封测行业收入创新 高，显示出积极的发展前景。同时，先进封装技术和设备成为新生产线的关键，而零部件制造商和材料 公司也受益于订单增加。总之，投资者应关注具 ...

Americas Investment grade lags Bradley Rogoff, BCI, US | Dominique Toublan, BCI, US Spreads have been soft, but higher quality is underperforming. Single-A industrials are lagging the most, and BBs are faring the best. We recommend various reversal trades in cash and CDX. We also revise our issuance forecasts across the credit markets. We expect issuance to slow but remain sizable in 2H. IG cash has also underperformed CDX IG and versus Europe. The basis between the IG 1-10y cash index has widened by 6bp MT ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes on Hainan's Duty-Free Market Industry Overview - Hainan Province is recognized as the only duty-free island in China, aiming to revitalize its tourism and shopping sectors under stricter regulations after several years of fluctuating development [2][6] - The province's duty-free sales revenue is crucial not only for Hainan but also for the performance of Chinese and global retailers [2] Key Points and Arguments - **Sales Revenue Challenges**: S&P Global Ratings suggests that Hainan may struggle to meet official expectations for duty-free sales revenue, particularly within the current year [2] - **Record Sales in 2021**: In 2021, Hainan's offshore duty-free sales reached nearly RMB 50 billion (approximately USD 6.8 billion) due to relaxed shopping limits for travelers [2] - **Impact of Resale Activities**: The rise of "daigou" (resale activities) has led to increased government enforcement against illegal sales, which has affected the market dynamics [2][6] - **Regulatory Measures**: Since 2020, the personal duty-free shopping limit was raised to RMB 100,000 (approximately USD 13,800), the highest globally, which initially fueled daigou activities [3][4] - **Sales Decline**: In the first five months of 2023, duty-free sales in Hainan saw a year-on-year decline of 29%, raising concerns about the province's recovery [19] Additional Important Insights - **Consumer Confidence**: The overall consumer confidence in China remains low, which is expected to slow the recovery of Hainan's duty-free market [19][22] - **Per Capita Spending Trends**: Hainan's per capita duty-free spending peaked at RMB 8,041 (approximately USD 1,130) in 2022 but dropped to RMB 5,424 (approximately USD 750) in early 2023, with projections for the year to stabilize between RMB 5,000 and RMB 5,300 [22][24] - **Future Prospects**: Hainan is set to become a free trade port by the end of 2025, which may enhance its attractiveness to global investors and shoppers, although specific policy details remain unclear [24] - **Brand Strategies**: Brands like Estée Lauder are adapting by relocating some operations to duty-free shopping centers and investing in local market potential, indicating a commitment to the Hainan market despite challenges [14][16] Conclusion - Hainan's duty-free market faces significant challenges, including regulatory pressures and declining consumer confidence, but the potential for recovery exists with strategic adaptations by brands and the anticipated benefits of free trade port status by 2025 [19][24]

Summary of Conference Call on Gold Industry Dynamics Company/Industry Involved - The conference call focuses on the gold industry, specifically discussing trends related to central bank purchases and the outlook for gold prices. Core Points and Arguments - The trend of global central banks increasing their gold holdings remains unchanged, indicating a positive outlook for gold prices moving forward [1] - The report emphasizes that the current market conditions support a bullish sentiment towards gold, driven by macroeconomic factors and geopolitical uncertainties [1] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The disclaimer highlights that the content of the meeting is designed for professional institutional investors and does not constitute investment advice [1]

Summary of Conference Call Company/Industry Involved - The conference call was organized by China Merchants Securities, targeting professional investment institutions and invited guests [1] Core Points and Arguments - The content of the call represents personal opinions and does not constitute investment advice [1] - Any recording, reproduction, or dissemination of the information without prior written consent from China Merchants Securities is prohibited [1] Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - The company reserves all legal rights in case of violations regarding the dissemination of the information shared during the call [1]

Financial Data and Key Indicators Changes - The current investment in the power grid is experiencing an unprecedented strong cycle, driven by energy transition, industrialization, and grid renewal needs, leading to a significant increase in global power equipment demand [2][3] - The expected investment in ultra-high voltage projects during the 14th Five-Year Plan period is projected to grow by approximately 50% year-on-year, with over 20 direct current lines and more than 15 alternating current lines anticipated [2][3] Business Line Data and Key Indicators Changes - The domestic investment in distribution networks has been relatively weak over the past three years, but with the development of distributed energy, the requirements for distribution networks are gradually increasing, indicating potential for significant growth in the coming years [4][17] - The industrial control sector has been in a weak recovery since the second half of last year, primarily benefiting from machine replacement and import substitution, although demand is currently affected by declining capital expenditures in the new energy sector [6][18] Market Data and Key Indicators Changes - In the overseas market, there has been a notable increase in orders from Chinese companies, particularly in the US and European markets, driven by energy structure adjustments and the development of offshore wind energy [4][13] - The power equipment industry is facing challenges such as reliance on manual labor and supply chain issues, particularly concerning high-grade silicon steel materials from China, which affects production capacity release [12][20] Company Strategy and Development Direction and Industry Competition - The power grid sector is a key investment direction this year, with both domestic and overseas power equipment demand driven by increasing electricity demand and changes in power supply structure [11][21] - Major companies in the ultra-high voltage field recommended include XJ Group, Pinggao Group, and China West Electric, which are expected to benefit from domestic ultra-high voltage projects and improvements in state-owned enterprise management [6][21] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management highlighted that the current investment cycle is structurally driven and expected to last longer than previous cycles, with both domestic and international markets showing strong investment potential [2][11] - The outlook for the industrial control sector suggests a potential turning point as traditional industries continue to recover, while new energy sectors may see a decline in demand [6][18] Other Important Information - The power equipment sector is significantly impacted by fluctuations in raw material prices, particularly copper, which affects the profitability of products like low-voltage relays and transformers [20][22] - The establishment of a digital distribution network department by the State Grid indicates a top-level design approach that may lead to unexpected growth in distribution network investments [4][17] Q&A Session All Questions and Answers Question: What is the current overall situation of power grid investment and its driving factors? - The current power grid investment is in an unprecedented strong cycle, driven by energy transition, industrialization, and grid renewal needs, leading to a significant increase in power equipment demand [2] Question: What are the specific performances of the domestic and international markets in the main grid? - In the domestic market, ultra-high voltage projects are the main driving force, with expected project numbers increasing by about 50% during the 14th Five-Year Plan [2][3] - In the overseas market, Europe is enhancing interconnectivity, and the US is advancing cross-state transmission network construction, with significant demand for main grid investment [2][3] Question: What trends are worth noting in the distribution network? - The investment in domestic distribution networks has been relatively weak, but with the development of distributed energy, there is an increasing demand for distribution networks, indicating potential for significant growth [4][17] Question: How are Chinese power equipment companies performing in overseas markets? - Chinese power equipment companies are performing well in overseas markets, particularly in smart meter sectors, capturing about 30% of the overseas market share [13][14]

从大会看亮点与趋势 ...

今天我们也有幸邀请到了中芯证券股权衍生品业务线的程潇老师 来为大家带来全球资产配置工具与案例分享结束过后我们会留QA的时间然后接下来就把时间交给程啸老师程啸老师好各位好各位现在听我声音听得清楚吗清楚了好的好的那我就开始吧大家好我是股权业生品业务线的推理人员程啸然后今天的话主要是来给大家分享一下我们最近半年到一年一直在推的一个工具型业务然后叫做股票篮子 其实大家也知道虽然市场上现在有很多厂内的ETF并且厂外其实也有很多的不同主题不同风格类的一些主动管理资金或被动资金但其实厂内的ETF它其实一直是属于一个供不应求 比如说他其实跟不上各位管理人以及市场上的一些投资理念和idea的一个迭代速度了比如说从主题上来讲今年炒低空炒财税然后炒各种主题但如果这个时候PM想参与 并且他倾向于买一篮子股票来作为他杠铃策略的另一头的话但是由于他之前对这个主题的了解并不是很深这个时候其实是没有一个合适的ETF或者说其他工具来满足他的这样一个配置需求的 那在这个时候我们就会有多个的主题栏子来供您选择然后我们会提供主题多样化的栏子作为模板您可以根据自己的投资观点和筛选标准来自定义组合成分和权重然后构建您想要的任意的股票栏子然后来作为一个业 ...