L. 2024年07月10日 22:37 宏图101：全球石油库存显示出历史最大缺口 1. 美债时机 近几个月来，随着收益率曲线从深度倒挂状态变得陡峭，劳动力 市场出现问题，以及增长放缓迹象日益明显，美国经济衰退的风 险显著增加，而盈利预期仍然不切实际。 Source: Bloomberg; Tavi Costa 1. 二手车价格 MANHEIM USED VEHICLE VALUE INDEX June 2024 Jee. 2006 2008 Jan. Jan 2012 Jan. 2014 Jan 2016 2020 2002 2004 2018 2022 2000 2024 全球黄金ETF在上半年出现了近70亿美元的资金外流。然而,这一 趋势似乎正在转变，因为ETF在6月份连续第二个月录得资金流入 (+14亿美元），主要由欧洲和亚洲的基金推动。 Regional gold ETF flows and the gold price* 3 2,400 2 2,300 1 2,200 2,100 0 US$bn 2,000 -2 1,900 -3 1,800 -4 1,700 -5 1,600 Feb-24 F ...

半导体行业月度深度跟踪-全球电子大厂持续发 力AI，关注科八条影响和24Q2业绩趋势20240709_导读 2024年07月10日 01:36 关键词 半导体 需求端 政策端 并购重组 库存 产能利用率 产业链跟踪 景气度 处理器 MCU 存储 模拟 功率 价格 上涨 销售额 AI 苹果 高通 三星 台积电 全文摘要 近期半导体行业展现出复苏强劲态势，尤其在第二季度，消费需求的增强推动了芯片公司销售和库存水 平的改善。服务器市场，特别是AI服务器和传统服务器领域的需求增长，进一步促进了市场的发展。尽 管存在减产现象，存储产品价格上涨，预示着产能利用率有望回升。随着Android和iOS手机销量的增 长，以及PC、可穿戴设备、AR/VR/MR和服务器市场的积极增长，全球半导体产业正处在一个景气上升 期。AI芯片市场和存储器市场的需求持续增加，促进了相关企业的业绩改善和市场竞争力提升。模拟行 业的并购重组活动也引起了关注，这可能是为了快速扩充产品线和优化竞争格局。封测行业收入创新 高，显示出积极的发展前景。同时，先进封装技术和设备成为新生产线的关键，而零部件制造商和材料 公司也受益于订单增加。总之，投资者应关注具 ...

Americas Investment grade lags Bradley Rogoff, BCI, US | Dominique Toublan, BCI, US Spreads have been soft, but higher quality is underperforming. Single-A industrials are lagging the most, and BBs are faring the best. We recommend various reversal trades in cash and CDX. We also revise our issuance forecasts across the credit markets. We expect issuance to slow but remain sizable in 2H. IG cash has also underperformed CDX IG and versus Europe. The basis between the IG 1-10y cash index has widened by 6bp MT ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes on Hainan's Duty-Free Market Industry Overview - Hainan Province is recognized as the only duty-free island in China, aiming to revitalize its tourism and shopping sectors under stricter regulations after several years of fluctuating development [2][6] - The province's duty-free sales revenue is crucial not only for Hainan but also for the performance of Chinese and global retailers [2] Key Points and Arguments - **Sales Revenue Challenges**: S&P Global Ratings suggests that Hainan may struggle to meet official expectations for duty-free sales revenue, particularly within the current year [2] - **Record Sales in 2021**: In 2021, Hainan's offshore duty-free sales reached nearly RMB 50 billion (approximately USD 6.8 billion) due to relaxed shopping limits for travelers [2] - **Impact of Resale Activities**: The rise of "daigou" (resale activities) has led to increased government enforcement against illegal sales, which has affected the market dynamics [2][6] - **Regulatory Measures**: Since 2020, the personal duty-free shopping limit was raised to RMB 100,000 (approximately USD 13,800), the highest globally, which initially fueled daigou activities [3][4] - **Sales Decline**: In the first five months of 2023, duty-free sales in Hainan saw a year-on-year decline of 29%, raising concerns about the province's recovery [19] Additional Important Insights - **Consumer Confidence**: The overall consumer confidence in China remains low, which is expected to slow the recovery of Hainan's duty-free market [19][22] - **Per Capita Spending Trends**: Hainan's per capita duty-free spending peaked at RMB 8,041 (approximately USD 1,130) in 2022 but dropped to RMB 5,424 (approximately USD 750) in early 2023, with projections for the year to stabilize between RMB 5,000 and RMB 5,300 [22][24] - **Future Prospects**: Hainan is set to become a free trade port by the end of 2025, which may enhance its attractiveness to global investors and shoppers, although specific policy details remain unclear [24] - **Brand Strategies**: Brands like Estée Lauder are adapting by relocating some operations to duty-free shopping centers and investing in local market potential, indicating a commitment to the Hainan market despite challenges [14][16] Conclusion - Hainan's duty-free market faces significant challenges, including regulatory pressures and declining consumer confidence, but the potential for recovery exists with strategic adaptations by brands and the anticipated benefits of free trade port status by 2025 [19][24]

Summary of Conference Call on Gold Industry Dynamics Company/Industry Involved - The conference call focuses on the gold industry, specifically discussing trends related to central bank purchases and the outlook for gold prices. Core Points and Arguments - The trend of global central banks increasing their gold holdings remains unchanged, indicating a positive outlook for gold prices moving forward [1] - The report emphasizes that the current market conditions support a bullish sentiment towards gold, driven by macroeconomic factors and geopolitical uncertainties [1] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The disclaimer highlights that the content of the meeting is designed for professional institutional investors and does not constitute investment advice [1]

本次电话会议仅面向招商证券的专业投资机构客户或受邀客户会议嘉宾发言内容仅代表其个人观点所有信息或观点不构成投资建议未经招商证券事先书面许可任何机构或个人严禁录音制作纪要转发转载传播复制编辑修改等涉嫌违反上述情形的我们将保留一切法律权利感谢您的理解和支持谢谢 各位投资者大家晚上好我是招商店曹辉今天我来给各位投资者更新一下我们这个 最新一次月报吧这次月报主要是整个6月份的一个一些阅读的一些数据跟踪啊以及这个关于一些这个财报的一些展望吧因为我们知道6月份过完以后呢很多公司这个二季度啊的一些这个趋势呢虽然说还没有发正式的这个这个财报但是有些公司呢也是提前发了业绩预告啊还有一些 呃这个有些公司可能会公布一些月度的一些数据啊所以总体目前看上去呢整个呃整个二季度的这个尤其是半导体板块吧呃这个复苏的这个这个趋势还是在不断加强啊 总体我们认为当前Banality的各个环节其实都可以重点关注一下同时政策端的一些情况像一些科发条对整个科创的一些Banality的公司可能都会有一些制造性的意见那么这一块中长线的一些关于并购重组方面的一些趋势也是非常值得各位投资者关注一下 首先这个这个整个摘要中的这个情况呢我就大概先快速过一下主要是行 ...

Financial Data and Key Indicators Changes - The current investment in the power grid is experiencing an unprecedented strong cycle, driven by energy transition, industrialization, and grid renewal needs, leading to a significant increase in global power equipment demand [2][3] - The expected investment in ultra-high voltage projects during the 14th Five-Year Plan period is projected to grow by approximately 50% year-on-year, with over 20 direct current lines and more than 15 alternating current lines anticipated [2][3] Business Line Data and Key Indicators Changes - The domestic investment in distribution networks has been relatively weak over the past three years, but with the development of distributed energy, the requirements for distribution networks are gradually increasing, indicating potential for significant growth in the coming years [4][17] - The industrial control sector has been in a weak recovery since the second half of last year, primarily benefiting from machine replacement and import substitution, although demand is currently affected by declining capital expenditures in the new energy sector [6][18] Market Data and Key Indicators Changes - In the overseas market, there has been a notable increase in orders from Chinese companies, particularly in the US and European markets, driven by energy structure adjustments and the development of offshore wind energy [4][13] - The power equipment industry is facing challenges such as reliance on manual labor and supply chain issues, particularly concerning high-grade silicon steel materials from China, which affects production capacity release [12][20] Company Strategy and Development Direction and Industry Competition - The power grid sector is a key investment direction this year, with both domestic and overseas power equipment demand driven by increasing electricity demand and changes in power supply structure [11][21] - Major companies in the ultra-high voltage field recommended include XJ Group, Pinggao Group, and China West Electric, which are expected to benefit from domestic ultra-high voltage projects and improvements in state-owned enterprise management [6][21] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management highlighted that the current investment cycle is structurally driven and expected to last longer than previous cycles, with both domestic and international markets showing strong investment potential [2][11] - The outlook for the industrial control sector suggests a potential turning point as traditional industries continue to recover, while new energy sectors may see a decline in demand [6][18] Other Important Information - The power equipment sector is significantly impacted by fluctuations in raw material prices, particularly copper, which affects the profitability of products like low-voltage relays and transformers [20][22] - The establishment of a digital distribution network department by the State Grid indicates a top-level design approach that may lead to unexpected growth in distribution network investments [4][17] Q&A Session All Questions and Answers Question: What is the current overall situation of power grid investment and its driving factors? - The current power grid investment is in an unprecedented strong cycle, driven by energy transition, industrialization, and grid renewal needs, leading to a significant increase in power equipment demand [2] Question: What are the specific performances of the domestic and international markets in the main grid? - In the domestic market, ultra-high voltage projects are the main driving force, with expected project numbers increasing by about 50% during the 14th Five-Year Plan [2][3] - In the overseas market, Europe is enhancing interconnectivity, and the US is advancing cross-state transmission network construction, with significant demand for main grid investment [2][3] Question: What trends are worth noting in the distribution network? - The investment in domestic distribution networks has been relatively weak, but with the development of distributed energy, there is an increasing demand for distribution networks, indicating potential for significant growth [4][17] Question: How are Chinese power equipment companies performing in overseas markets? - Chinese power equipment companies are performing well in overseas markets, particularly in smart meter sectors, capturing about 30% of the overseas market share [13][14]

从大会看亮点与趋势 ...

今天我们也有幸邀请到了中芯证券股权衍生品业务线的程潇老师 来为大家带来全球资产配置工具与案例分享结束过后我们会留QA的时间然后接下来就把时间交给程啸老师程啸老师好各位好各位现在听我声音听得清楚吗清楚了好的好的那我就开始吧大家好我是股权业生品业务线的推理人员程啸然后今天的话主要是来给大家分享一下我们最近半年到一年一直在推的一个工具型业务然后叫做股票篮子 其实大家也知道虽然市场上现在有很多厂内的ETF并且厂外其实也有很多的不同主题不同风格类的一些主动管理资金或被动资金但其实厂内的ETF它其实一直是属于一个供不应求 比如说他其实跟不上各位管理人以及市场上的一些投资理念和idea的一个迭代速度了比如说从主题上来讲今年炒低空炒财税然后炒各种主题但如果这个时候PM想参与 并且他倾向于买一篮子股票来作为他杠铃策略的另一头的话但是由于他之前对这个主题的了解并不是很深这个时候其实是没有一个合适的ETF或者说其他工具来满足他的这样一个配置需求的 那在这个时候我们就会有多个的主题栏子来供您选择然后我们会提供主题多样化的栏子作为模板您可以根据自己的投资观点和筛选标准来自定义组合成分和权重然后构建您想要的任意的股票栏子然后来作为一个业 ...

科特股作为一个具有成长性和科技属性的标的,如何确定其估值?目前有哪些领域在估值上 -手调研究要和研报 有望提升? 对于像科特股这样的高成长性行业,传统的市盈率或现金流折现法并不适用a(因为其未来业绩 难以预估。我们通常会参考行业的平均估值水平,并将其与历史数据进行比较,以判断当前所 处的估值阶段。通过结合行业未来的成长性,可以推测出其可能达到的点位或最终估值水平。 此外,半导体等细分领域表现较好,但要实现更好的投资表现,还需要整体经济环境配合。目 前市场处于上涨周期中的波动阶段,但今年整体投资收益应优于前两年。 更多一年 在当前沪指回到 3,000 点承平的大背景下，应如何选择科特股和中特股? 3,000 点是彩不相对便宜且具有投资价值的点位，但关键在于所投板块的成长性。中特股如银 行等行业现金流稳定,而科特股则依赖整体经济大方向和细分领域盈利情况。例如,半导体领 域虽然增长显著,但要实现更好的投资表现,还需大环境支持。因此,在选择时应综合考虑板 块成长性及宏观经济因素。 对普通投资者而言,指数 ETF 是否是一种适合的投资方式?有哪些策略可以分享? 指数 ETF 确实是普通投资者较为适合的一种投资方式。以半 ...