本次会议仅面向华福证券的专业投资机构客户或受邀客户第三方专家发言内容仅代表其个人观点所有信息或观点不构成投资建议根据监管规定会议不得交流敏感内幕信息未经华福证券事先书面许可任何机构或个人严禁录音制作纪要转发转载传播复制编辑修改等涉嫌违反上述情形等我们将保留一切法律权利感谢您的理解和支持谢谢 各位投资者大家晚上好我是李浩然后跟大家就是今天跟大家讲一讲通胀黄金还有制造业的关系其实我们可能今天可以从两个角度来去看这三者的关系一个是可能从一个长期的维度来看它和一个从中期的维度来看其实长期来看的话其实特别明确因为如果可能如果大家听过前几场电脑会议大家会 就是我们提到了一个过去几十年的一个美元的一个全球性的一个框架然后它的和一个经济运行的结果它的一个运行的框架其实本质就是美国赚了很多钱然后美国它在它遏制其他国家的发展因为它把利润拿走了然后包括美元的全球化体系它其实 非美国家特别不是美国核心圈的小伙伴们其实很难去加恩赶去发展工业化啊其实很难去发展经济所以呃其实在这种格局下非美国家呃特别是这个不在美国核心圈的非美国家他可能长期都是一个呃资源品的一个输出国或者是一个这个呃低端制造业的一个产出国他是这样一个格局所以最后他形成的一 ...

本次电话会议服务于西部证券研究所客户不构成投资建议相关人员应自主作出投资决策并自行承担投资风险西部证券不应使用本次内容所导致的任何损失承担任何责任 专家发言内容仅代表专家个人观点不代表本公司观点本次会议内容不涉及国家保密信息、内幕信息、未公开重大信息、商业秘密、个人隐私不得涉及可能引发不当炒作或股价异常波动的敏感信息不得涉及影响社会或资本市场稳定的言论未经西部证券事先书面许可 好的非常感谢大家来参加我们的这个会议那最近这个全球的事件地缘事件发生的比较多一些重大的事件我们看到这个川普啊也是这个遇刺 这个事件其实我们在前两周跟市场交流的时候我们一直在提醒就是说你最想不到那个场景但是它如果合理的话可能会发生我们一直说川普大概率会被枪击之类的所以说最近大家对于特朗普交易也是聊得非常多那么看到国内今天是我们二十届三中全会闭幕的日子也是非常高兴我党的重要会议也是圆满结束 那么我们想在这个关键的时点我们可以更加积极的去展望未来的宏观形势那么首先我们认为就刚才讲的海外的宏观形势发生了较大的变化那么在这个降息端也是有了较为确定的预期那么看到这个金价也是创出历史新高那么在这样的环境下我们觉得也有利于我们自身短期政策的一个推进比如 ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 Structural changes in global gas markets in 20 charts ...

Summary of Conference Call Company/Industry Involved - The document discusses 彭华基金 (Penghua Fund), a public fund management company known for its fundamental investment approach in the asset management industry [1]. Core Points and Arguments - 彭华基金 is recognized as a "honest player" in the public fund industry, emphasizing its commitment to fundamental research and value discovery [1]. - The company maintains a focus on in-depth fundamental research, which is central to its investment strategy [1]. - 彭华基金 is dedicated to independent value judgment, aiming to create sustained value for its investors [1]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The emphasis on fundamental research and independent judgment highlights the company's long-term investment philosophy, which may appeal to risk-averse investors looking for stability in their portfolios [1].

中国面临的挑战对全球投资者意味着什么？ 20240716 Q:最近的经济数据揭示了中国当前的经济状况? A:最新的经济指标描绘了一幅经济转型的图景，正在努力应对重大 挑战。第二季度GDP增长率为4.7%,虽然为正增长，但受到去年较 低基数的支撑，与第一季度相比明显放缓。这个数字也低于我们和 市场的预期。与企业盈利密切相关的名义GDP增长率已从第一季度 的4.2%降至4%,反映了更广泛的减速。GDP平减指数为-0.7%,突显 了通缩压力，表明价格正在全面下跌。 Q:过去几个月，需求侧动态如何演变? 需求方面的指标表明，自去年年底以来，经济呈明显的逐渐减速趋 势。自今年年初以来，经季节性调整的一般进口一直呈下降趋势， 突显出国内需求疲软。相比之下，与加工贸易相关的进口数据显示 出复苏的迹象，说明了经济反弹的不平衡性。核心CPI是潜在通胀 的指标已大幅放缓，接近2022年疫情引发的封锁高峰以来的最高 水平。 这标志着疫情后被压抑的消费者支出放松的减弱。 Q:最近的财务数据表明信贷状况和流动性如何? | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------- ...

彭华基金作为公募行业老实家基金管理公司之一,素有基本面投资专家之称,坚持研究发现价值,坚持深入的基本面研究,坚持独立的价值判断,立足于为投资者持续创造价值。 彭华基本面投资大学堂秉承价值投资的理念与初心本着归本溯源的基本投资规律为各位投资者朋友们呈现精彩的投资盛宴今天我们特别邀请到广发证券机械行业首席分析师戴川蒞临我们的直播间本期的主题是面向全球的中国制造业 各位投资者朋友们大家好我是广发证券机械首席分析师戴川请允许我简单介绍一下罗震总罗震总拥有8年的证券从业经验2022年12月开始管理基金曾经担任中信箭头证券中小市值组研究员国胜证券机械行业首席分析师信达证券机械行业首席分析师 2022年3月加盟宏华基金管理有限公司现担任稳定收益部基金经理好 我们现在开始进入今天的讨论首先我们知道去年下半年以来我们市场对出口其实是一个非常关注的状态我们也观察到很多企业在这个过程当中到海外是颇有建树的 但实际上我们也知道中国企业出口完全不是一个新的命题了特别是01年加入WTO之后我们的出口一直保持在一个非常高增的这么一个状态从戴首席您的研究来看的话这一轮中国企业的出口包括出海它体现出一些什么样不一样的特征呢好的这一轮关于出口尤 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment stance with a Bull & Bear Indicator at 6.3, suggesting a cautious outlook on equities [1]. Core Insights - Global growth expectations have significantly declined, with a net 27% of investors anticipating a weaker economy over the next 12 months, marking a notable drop from previous months [12][46]. - Despite the pessimism regarding growth, 68% of investors believe in a "soft landing" for the economy, while only 11% foresee a "hard landing" [7][12]. - The cash level among fund managers has increased to 4.1%, reflecting a cautious approach amid economic uncertainties [3][39]. Summary by Sections Growth Expectations - Global growth expectations have fallen sharply, with net 27% of investors expecting a weaker economy, driven by a negative outlook on US growth [12][46]. - 67% of investors do not expect a global recession in the next 12 months, although this is a slight decrease from 73% in June [14]. Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - 39% of investors view current monetary policy as "too restrictive," the highest level since November 2008, which contributes to expectations of falling interest rates over the next year [5][17]. - 87% of investors anticipate lower rates, with 62% predicting at least three cuts by the Federal Reserve within the next 12 months [1][17]. Asset Allocation - Fund managers are overweight in stocks (net 33%) and underweight in bonds (net -9%), with a notable shift towards utilities for the first time since February 2009 [1][23]. - There has been a significant reduction in exposure to Eurozone equities, with a drop of 20 percentage points month-over-month, marking the largest decline since July 2022 [21][86]. Crowded Trades and Investor Sentiment - The "Long Magnificent 7" trade is identified as the most crowded, with 71% of investors participating, indicating a strong consensus on this investment strategy [24][38]. - Geopolitical conflict has emerged as the top tail risk, overtaking higher inflation, with 26% of investors citing it as their primary concern [15][36]. Sector and Regional Allocations - Investors have increased their allocation to utilities and US equities while reducing exposure to Eurozone equities and real estate, which is at its lowest allocation since January 2009 [33][69]. - The allocation to emerging market equities has risen to a net 9% overweight, reflecting a shift in regional preferences [86].

买卖 本次电话会议仅服务于长江证券研究所白名单客户未经长江证券事先书面许可任何机构或个人不得以任何形式对外公布、复制、刊载、转载、转发、引用本次会议相关内容否则由此造成的一切后果及法律责任由该机构或个人承担长江证券保留追究其法律责任的权利 好的那个各位投的投的大家早上好那个我是长江机械的张雄欢迎大家参加我们这个船航长江第17期的一个这个汇报主要是想从整个船航结构包括全球的这个比较的一个这个维度去看一下整个船舶板块的引力失放的一个节奏以及这个空间的问题 那么从整个最近来看的话我们也看到就是说整个中报的话其实就是在整个中报预告上面其实整个传播板块的业绩来讲现在还是比较超预期的那么对于到目前来讲的话我们认为就是说从整个这个传播板块源换来换来换来就说这方面的话其实是是在于整个行业的这种紧急度其实目前其实继续呈现一个在向上的状况这块其实你可以说是大家在市场的一个这个基本上形成一个相对一致的预期 季节来看的话呢一方面是可能是在整个传家的部分从传家来讲的话呢目前到整个像7月份最新的一些这个周度数据来看整个新教权的一个价格指数是达到了187.78点同比跟环比呢其实都还是呈现一个在 上涨的一个状况基本上的话目前就是说整个新造船 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Global Asset Allocation Model Industry Overview - Focus on global asset allocation and macroeconomic conditions, particularly in the United States, Eurozone, and the UK. Key Points and Arguments Global Economic Outlook - The World Bank's June 2024 global economic growth forecast is 2.6%, an increase of 0.2% from January 2024 [2][3] - Developed countries' growth is projected at 1.5% for 2024, with the U.S. showing significant improvement to 2.5% [2][3] - Developing countries are expected to grow at 4.0%, with China at 4.8% and India at 6.6% [3][4] U.S. Economic Concerns - U.S. employment data shows mixed signals; June non-farm payrolls increased by 206,000, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.1%, the highest in two and a half years [5][6] - Job growth revisions indicate a downward trend, with May's figures revised down from 272,000 to 218,000 [6][7] - Manufacturing sector shows signs of contraction, with PMI below 50 for three consecutive months, indicating economic weakness [8][9] Manufacturing Sector Analysis - The manufacturing PMI from different organizations shows divergence; one indicates growth while another shows contraction [10][12] - Demand for new orders has slightly improved, but overall manufacturing remains below the expansion threshold [9][10] Consumer Spending and Economic Growth - Personal consumption expenditures, which account for approximately 68% of U.S. GDP, have declined significantly, particularly in goods [16][18] - Retail sales data for April and May were below expectations, indicating potential continued weakness in consumer spending [21][25] - The forecast for Q2 economic growth remains cautious, with potential downward revisions expected [26][27] Eurozone Economic Conditions - Eurozone growth is stable at 0.7%, but manufacturing PMI remains below 50, indicating contraction [29][30] - Economic divergence among member countries, with Germany and France showing different recovery trajectories [31][32] - Service sector performance has been strong, but consumer spending remains cautious due to high energy costs and political uncertainties [35][37] UK Economic Outlook - The UK economy shows signs of recovery, with Q1 growth and positive manufacturing and service sector data [41][42] - Political instability following recent elections may impact economic policies and consumer confidence [42][43] - The Labour Party's approach to public spending and healthcare remains uncertain, raising concerns about future economic management [44][45] Japanese Economic Situation - Japan's manufacturing sector has recently shown improvement, but service sector PMI has declined [29][30] Other Important Insights - The potential for a stronger U.S. dollar due to divergent monetary policies and economic conditions in other regions [28][45] - The impact of geopolitical tensions and domestic political issues on consumer behavior and economic performance in Europe [37][40] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting the current economic landscape and potential future trends across major global economies.

Summary of Conference Call Company or Industry Involved - The document does not specify a particular company or industry, as it only contains a greeting. Core Points and Arguments - No core points or arguments are provided in the document. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The document only includes a greeting and lacks substantive content for analysis. No relevant information is available for further summarization.