Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the gas market, with expectations of continued demand growth, particularly in Asia, despite a fragile global gas balance [6][14][29]. Core Insights - Global natural gas consumption reached an all-time high in 2024, with further growth anticipated in 2025, driven mainly by fast-growing markets in Asia [6][14][15]. - The global gas market remains fragile due to tight supply conditions and geopolitical tensions, which contribute to price volatility [6][14][24]. - The halt of Russian piped gas transit via Ukraine is expected to increase LNG import requirements for the European Union, tightening market fundamentals [6][14][28]. Summary by Sections Executive Summary - Global gas demand surged by 2.8%, or 115 billion cubic meters (bcm), year-on-year in 2024, surpassing the average growth rate of 2% from 2010 to 2020 [15]. - The Asia Pacific region accounted for nearly 45% of the increase in global gas demand, primarily due to economic expansion [15][16]. - Geopolitical tensions and extreme weather events have exacerbated market strains, leading to significant price volatility [14][24]. Gas Market Update - Global LNG supply grew by 2.5% (or 13 bcm) in 2024, significantly below the average growth rate of 8% from 2016 to 2020 [24]. - The forecast for 2025 anticipates a 5% increase in LNG supply, driven by the ramp-up of several large projects in North America and contributions from Africa and Asia [24][25]. - The halt of Russian piped gas deliveries is projected to reduce supplies to Europe by approximately 15 bcm in 2025 compared to 2024 [28]. Key Gas Policies and Market Trends - Natural gas prices moderated significantly in 2024, with European TTF prices averaging USD 11/MBtu, more than double the five-year average [42]. - The correlation between Asian and European gas prices reached an all-time high, reflecting the globalized nature of gas markets [41][45]. - LNG contracting activity remained strong, with contracted volumes in 2024 reaching 68 bcm/year, a 27% increase from 2023 [69]. Low-Emissions Gases - Global biomethane output increased by an estimated 15% in 2024, with significant growth in Europe and North America [30]. - Policies supporting low-emissions hydrogen have become more robust, although project developments remain modest [30]. International Cooperation - The IEA has emphasized the need for greater international cooperation to enhance gas supply security amid tight market conditions and geopolitical tensions [32][112]. - Initiatives such as the Global Early Warning Mechanism have been established to facilitate information exchange related to gas and LNG security [113].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the oil industry, but it provides detailed insights into refining margins and methodologies that can inform investment decisions. Core Insights - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has updated its methodology for calculating refinery margins, integrating utility costs and empirical data to provide a more realistic margin assessment [4][21][29]. - The new methodology reflects changes in energy consumption costs, crude grades, and product yields, which are expected to impact refining margins across different regions [29][30]. - The report highlights significant disparities in energy costs between regions, with the USA enjoying a cost advantage due to lower natural gas and LPG prices [29][30]. Summary by Sections Introduction - The IEA has published refinery margins since June 1992, with the latest methodology update in August 2024 aimed at providing a more accurate reflection of market conditions [4]. Refining Hubs - The IEA continues to assess refinery margins for five regions, including Singapore as the only East of Suez hub [7]. Refinery Configuration and Product Yields - The report details various refinery configurations and product yields based on regional characteristics, with adjustments made to yield calculations based on empirical data [10][11]. Crude Grades - The new methodology categorizes crude grades into light sweet, medium sour, and heavy sour, reflecting evolving supply and trade dynamics [13][14]. Petrochemical Margins - A simplified petrochemical margin component has been introduced for Northwest Europe and Singapore, accounting for naphtha used as feedstock in integrated operations [16]. Emission Costs - The report aggregates carbon dioxide emissions from hydrogen production and refinery energy consumption to calculate emission allowance costs for refining hubs [18]. Energy Consumption Costs - Utility consumption costs are now included in the refinery margin calculation, with detailed data on energy consumption by region [21][24]. Refinery Margin Calculation - The updated methodology for calculating refinery margins incorporates yields, prices, and costs, providing a comprehensive view of profitability [28]. Changes Compared to Previous Models - Key changes from the July 2022 model include the addition of marginal energy costs and revisions to yield structures, significantly impacting margins in various regions [29][30].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the photovoltaic (PV) industry. Core Insights - The global cumulative PV capacity reached 1.6 TW in 2023, with new installations between 407.3 GW and 446 GW, marking an over 80% growth compared to 2022 [11][20][37]. - China's PV market dominated with a record installation of 235 GW to 277 GW, accounting for over 60% of global new capacity [11][31]. - The European Union installed 55.8 GW, with Germany leading at 14.3 GW, while the USA and India followed with 33.2 GW and 16.6 GW respectively [11][31][32]. - The oversupply of PV modules has led to significant price drops, impacting local manufacturing projects outside China [13][29][30]. Summary by Sections Snapshot of the Global PV Market in 2023 - The report highlights a significant increase in global PV installations, with 29 countries installing over 1 GW in 2023, up from 25 in 2022 [20]. - China alone accounted for a minimum of 662 GW cumulative capacity, followed by the EU with 268.1 GW and the USA with 169.5 GW [20][31]. Evolution of Annual Installations - The annual installations nearly doubled from 236 GW in 2022 to at least 407.3 GW in 2023, with a growth rate not seen since 2011 [20][23]. - The report notes that the number of countries with over 10 GW of cumulative capacity has increased to 19 [20]. Impact of the Ukraine War and Over-Capacity in Manufacturing - The report discusses the stabilization of electricity prices in Europe after peaks in 2022, which has allowed PV to remain competitive [27]. - Manufacturing capacity has outstripped market demand, leading to an estimated 150 GW of module stock by the end of 2023 [28][29]. Focus on the Top Markets in 2023 - The report identifies China, the EU, and the USA as the top three markets for PV installations, with significant contributions from Germany and Brazil [31][32]. Market Segmentation - Both rooftop and utility-scale segments saw growth, with approximately 45% of new capacity coming from rooftops [33]. - New applications such as Building Integrated PV (BIPV) and floating PV are emerging, although still marginal [35]. Cumulative Installed Capacity in the World - The global cumulative installed capacity reached between 1,581 GW and 1,624 GW by the end of 2023, with a notable increase in the share held by Asia-Pacific [37][39]. Policy & Market Trends - The report emphasizes the importance of policy support in driving market growth, particularly in regions like Europe and the USA [41][42].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a modestly negative outlook for oil prices based on the IEA's adjustments to supply and demand forecasts [2]. Core Insights - The IEA has upgraded its forecast for non-OPEC ex-Russia supply for 2024 by 70 thousand barrels per day (kb/d) and for 2025 by 81 kb/d, while leaving the 2024 demand unchanged at 103.2 million barrels per day (mb/d) and slightly lowering the 2025 demand by 0.1 mb/d to 104.2 mb/d [2][4]. - Global oil inventories increased by 19.3 million barrels (mb) in April, with preliminary estimates indicating further rises in May [4]. - The IEA's long-term outlook suggests a peak in global oil demand in 2029, earlier than previously expected, with total supply capacity projected to rise to 113.8 mb/d by 2030, exceeding projected global demand of 105.4 mb/d [4][11]. Summary by Year - For 2024, the IEA forecasts a total world supply of 102.7 mb/d, with non-OPEC ex-Russia supply at 59.7 mb/d, and a total world demand of 103.2 mb/d [5]. - For 2025, the total world supply is projected at 105.0 mb/d, with non-OPEC ex-Russia supply at 61.1 mb/d, and total world demand adjusted to 104.2 mb/d [5]. Summary by Region - The IEA's demand forecast for OECD countries in 2024 is 45.5 mb/d, with notable downgrades in the US, Mexico, and Japan, while demand in China is upgraded by 149 kb/d [2][5]. - Non-OECD demand is projected at 57.7 mb/d for 2024, with growth driven by regions such as China and India [5][11].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the oil industry, but it highlights significant shifts and challenges that could impact investment strategies moving forward [4][10]. Core Insights - Global oil markets are facing structural shifts that will reshape demand and trade flows, with a projected plateau in oil demand towards the end of the decade [10][15]. - The rise of non-OECD economies, particularly China and India, will dominate oil demand growth, while advanced economies are expected to see a decline [17][46]. - The transition to clean energy technologies and increased efficiency measures are expected to significantly curb oil demand growth, particularly in road transport and electricity generation [15][38]. Summary by Sections Demand - Global oil demand is forecasted to plateau at around 106 mb/d by the end of the decade, with a net increase of 3.2 mb/d from 2023 to 2030 [15][26]. - Demand growth will be primarily driven by non-OECD Asian economies, especially India and China, while OECD demand is projected to decline from 45.7 mb/d in 2023 to 42.7 mb/d by 2030 [17][46]. - The shift towards petrochemicals will account for a significant portion of demand growth, with naphtha and LPG/ethane consumption expected to rise by 3.7 mb/d over the forecast period [15][44]. Supply - World oil production capacity is expected to increase by 6 mb/d to nearly 113.8 mb/d by 2030, surpassing projected global demand of 105.4 mb/d [12][19]. - Non-OECD producers will lead the capacity build, accounting for 76% of the net increase, with the United States contributing significantly [19][20]. - Saudi Arabia has shifted its focus from increasing crude oil capacity to boosting domestic gas supply, reflecting a changing strategy in response to market conditions [10][18]. Investment and Exploration - Global upstream capital expenditures rose by 13% to USD 538 billion in 2023, with expectations for a further 7% increase in the following year [20]. - The report indicates a front-loaded build in oil production capacity that may lose momentum towards the end of the forecast period, creating potential challenges for producers [10][12]. Refining and Trade - Global refining capacity is projected to rise by 3.3 mb/d from 2023 to 2030, but this increase will not keep pace with the demand for refined products [21][22]. - The global oil trade is expected to shift eastward, driven by Asia's growing structural shortfall in crude and product supply [23][25]. Government Policies - Government policies are increasingly supporting the growth of biofuels, with a steady demand for ethanol feedstock expected [21][22]. - The report emphasizes the need for refiners to adapt to changing demand patterns, particularly as non-refined products capture a significant share of projected demand growth [21][22].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a major supply surplus emerging in the oil market this decade, suggesting a cautious investment outlook for oil companies [5]. Core Insights - Global oil demand growth is expected to slow, peaking around 106 million barrels per day by the end of the decade, influenced by energy transitions and structural economic shifts [3][5]. - Global oil production capacity is projected to rise to nearly 114 million barrels per day by 2030, exceeding demand by 8 million barrels per day, leading to unprecedented levels of spare capacity [4]. - The increase in oil demand will primarily come from fast-growing economies in Asia, particularly India, and the petrochemicals sector, while advanced economies are expected to see a decline in oil demand [5][6]. Summary by Sections - **Demand Forecast**: Global oil demand averaged just over 102 million barrels per day in 2023, with an expected increase of 3.2 million barrels per day by 2030, driven by emerging economies and specific sectors [3][5]. - **Supply Capacity**: Non-OPEC+ producers are expected to account for three-quarters of the increase in global production capacity, with the U.S. contributing 2.1 million barrels per day [6]. - **Refining Capacity**: Global refining capacity is set to expand by 3.3 million barrels per day from 2023 to 2030, which should suffice to meet demand for refined products, despite a potential slowdown in capacity growth in Asia after 2027 [7][8].

Gas Market Report, Q1-2024 INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY The IEA examines the full spectrum of energy IEA member countries: Spain issues including oil, gas and coal supply and Australia Sweden demand, renewable energy technologies, Austria Switzerland electricity markets, energy efficiency, access to energy, demand side management and much Belgium Republic of Türkiye more. Through its work, the IEA advocates Canada United Kingdom policies that will enhance the reliability, Czech Republic United States afforda ...