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中国资产爆发后!海外市场何去何从
中国饭店协会酒店&蓝豆云· 2024-10-15 16:35
哈喽大家好欢迎来到天鸿直播间我是你们的老朋友蕾丝还是老规矩先给大家报个时间现在是2024年10月15号的上午10点钟如果您不在这个时间点进入到我们直播间的话那您看到的就是我们的回放内容了大家可以看一下这个上方的logo今天又是我们每周二上午10点天鸿海豹团的一个专场直播我们今天非常荣幸邀请到了我们天鸿国际业务部的经纪经理胡超总首先还是请胡超总来给大家打个招呼各位同事上午好我是天鸿经纪国际业务部胡超 好的 其实这个前段时间A股市场也是暴涨大家对这个A股投资的情绪也比较高我们在这个时间点出来也是想给大家在这个时间点就是宣传一下这个海外投资的一个非常重要的一个作用其实我们从整个全球资本市场表现来看的话就是三季度也可以说是一个多时值秋因为正好三季度也刚过去也马上到了一个快要出地暴的一个时间点 在这个时间点邀请到我们胡超总其实在三季度还出了非常多的大事的像美联储的降息还有美国的大选交易还有日元套息交易的反转以及季度末我们中国资产暴发刚刚提到过的以上所有的事件都让整个三季度的海外市场行情非常精彩所以首先还请胡超总对整个三季度做一个简单的复盘各位投资人好从整个三季度开始讲起因为三季度确实发生了很多的事情 7月份到8月份尤其 ...
政策利好频出-外资如何看中国
中国饭店协会酒店&蓝豆云· 2024-10-15 07:06
Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Federal Reserve's Rate Cut**: The Federal Reserve recently cut interest rates by 50 basis points, which was anticipated by the market due to decreased inflation and a more balanced labor market. This move is expected to benefit both fixed-income and equity investors as it signals potential for capital appreciation and earnings growth across various sectors [1][2][22]. Economic Conditions - **U.S. Labor Market**: Despite a slight slowdown, the labor market remains healthy, supported by real wage growth and consumer spending. The central case scenario predicts a soft landing for the U.S. economy over the next 23-24 months, driven by these factors [3][24][25]. - **U.S. Housing Market**: The housing market has faced chronic undersupply and high-interest rates, leading to lower transaction volumes. A decrease in interest rates over the next 12-18 months is expected to restore equilibrium in the housing market [4][26]. - **Emerging Markets**: The Federal Reserve's easing cycle is anticipated to weaken the dollar, which could enhance capital flows into emerging markets, improving their export competitiveness. However, the impact is complex and varies by market [5][27]. U.S. Equity Market Insights - **Performance of U.S. Equities**: Recent strength in U.S. equities has been driven by a narrow segment known as "the magnificent seven." However, broader market participation is emerging, and potential interest rate cuts could support earnings growth across a wider array of companies [6][28][37]. - **Investment Strategy**: The focus is shifting towards identifying high-quality investments beyond the dominant firms, as the market begins to broaden. Quality stocks with competitive advantages and stable cash flows are expected to perform well in the current late-cycle phase [7][37]. Japanese Market Developments - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: Japan has seen improvements in ROE due to governance reforms, but there remains a significant gap compared to other markets. Expectations suggest ROE could rise from 8-9% to 11-12% over the next three years, still below U.S. levels [8][30]. Chinese Market Outlook - **Investment Opportunities**: Despite recent challenges, there are promising areas within China's economy, particularly in consumer sectors, which are showing attractive valuations. The investment strategy focuses on value-based approaches rather than growth chasing [10][33][34]. - **Economic Transition**: China's shift from an export-led model to one driven by domestic consumption and innovation is complex but shows potential for growth in sectors like electric vehicles and technology [12][35]. Risks and Monitoring - **Key Risks**: The top three risks to monitor include potential dislocations in the U.S. labor market, inflation resurgence leading to stagflation, and uncertainties surrounding the U.S. election and its policy implications [21][43]. AI Integration in Investment Strategies - **Use of AI**: The firm employs analytical AI to enhance efficiency in investment operations, allowing analysts to focus on higher-value activities. The role of Chief AI Officer has been established to oversee AI integration across the firm [15][38][41]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and developments discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current economic landscape and investment strategies across various markets.
政策利好频出,外资如何看中国
中国饭店协会酒店&蓝豆云· 2024-10-14 16:51
大家好欢迎来到新一期的全球财经人物我是娟娟今天我们的对话嘉宾是联邦集团的全球投资主管克里斯哈本 联播集团是美国知名的资产管理机构截至今年二季度末其资产管理规模接近7700亿美元折合人民币超过5万亿元联播集团在中国同样拥有悠久的历史早在30年前的1994年它就开始了第一笔H股投资2009年联播集团开始了A股策略投资目前联播集团在境内拥有联播基金 Chris拥有26年的从业经验其中19年服务于联播集团去年我们在线上独家专访了Chris经过过去一年全球资本市场得转新移我们将和Chris聊一聊过去一年来他对全球资本市场拥有了哪些新的认识 Hi Chris, so great to see you in person in Shanghai. So how was your trip like so far?Well, today is day one. I arrived late last night. So this is the start of a very busy week traveling in China and more broadly in Asia.OK. So I hope you have ...
中国黄金20241013
中国饭店协会酒店&蓝豆云· 2024-10-14 03:36
好的 尊敬的各位投资者 大家下午好我是海通有事的陈先龙那么本场电话会呢是由我和我们同事那个张涵浩一起为大家介绍那么这个我们最近外发的这个黄金那个专题报告对中国黄金公司这个对发展的和对比的一些数理啊就是整体上是这样一个情况那我想重点介绍这样几个情况吧第一呢是大家比较关心的 请不吝点赞 订阅 转发 打赏支持明镜与点点栏目 黄金股投资的话可能还是和传统的这个商品就是有一批这个或有一批这个市场的参与者他可能还是秉持着之前这种商品投资的一些框架就是在这个价格在高位的话可能会对整个这个股票的话就是说会有一些担心可能也就是说他就在上这个新高的过程当中 逐步在减持这个黄金股当然前期市场也不是太好真正来讲黄金股的话今年在这个板块里面就是在这次上涨之前的话应该来讲还是有差不多收益那么站在目前这个时间点来看的话我们认为黄金股的话基本上来讲逐步调整到有相对有这个估值吸引力的一个位置这是第一点在这个金融属性和货币属性共振的一个情况下其实 金价的话我认为会继续处于这样在走强然后还能再创立新高的这样的一个情况那么整体上所以我们在理解就是A股 鹏金股的话向这个金价回归的话实际上只是时间的问题那么具体的这个标记的一个数据的话这边有请我们同事张 ...
拥抱出海新机遇,中国智造正当时 - 中企出海系列
中国饭店协会酒店&蓝豆云· 2024-10-11 13:08
Summary of the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report discusses the electronic manufacturing industry and its opportunities for overseas expansion, highlighting that Chinese manufacturing is at a pivotal moment [1]. Key Points and Arguments - The global electronic manufacturing industry has undergone several significant disruptions, indicating a dynamic and evolving landscape [1]. - China's electronic manufacturing industry has experienced three distinct stages of development, showcasing its growth and adaptation over time [1]. - The global electronic manufacturing landscape has shifted along a route that includes regions such as Europe, the United States, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, mainland China, and Southeast Asia, reflecting a trend of relocation and diversification [1]. Additional Important Content - The report emphasizes the importance of embracing new opportunities in overseas markets for Chinese manufacturers, suggesting a strategic focus on international expansion [1].
中国特色资产配置框架
中国饭店协会酒店&蓝豆云· 2024-10-09 16:48
万德基金WindTalk 鸿华基金政科监审带来的中国特色资产配置框架报告会即将开始录演过程中全程禁止录音录像会后万德基金将整理录演报告您可以关注万德基金公众号或通过万德基金专属客户经理进一步咨询欢迎在留言区互动提问录演正式开始 尊敬的各位来宾朋友们大家下午好欢迎您参加万德基金WonderTalk线上活动我是本次的主持人Coco万德基金大咖讲坛致力于搭建起优秀投资经理与客户之间的桥梁为您展示更专业的投资观点和更独特的投资理念加强市场资讯及后市观点的及时分享快速把握投资时机和方向万德基金在线为您提供专业的投研服务便捷的操作投资体验和及时的市场资讯分享 万德拥有海量数据客户覆盖中国绝大部分的金融机构万德基金是万德集团控股前支持公司基金致言提供万德专属精选池言报路演相似基金风格拟合债期久积不算与移动监控等投研服务基金交易快线与合作市场上绝大部分的基金公司支持线上开户批量下单特色服务包含费率折扣超级转换智能拆单以及资产管理风险监控等服务 万德基金致力于为机构客户打造高效便捷的一站式基金投研交易管理平台解决投资管理的三大重点投研服务少交易效率低投后管理难为客户实现投前投中和投后的一站式基金交易投研管理服务万德基金结合数据 ...
中国铁建20241008
中国饭店协会酒店&蓝豆云· 2024-10-09 05:59
中国铁建 20241008 摘要 • 2024 年上半年,中国铁建坚持稳健发展策略,出台了 36 项制度办法,提 升治理效能,并进行全系统 360 度全覆盖考核,以督促各方实现全年生产 经营目标。 • 尽管上半年市场表现不佳,但从三季度开始,中国铁建新签合同额和营收 均有明显改善,预计四季度基建行业将迎来放量增长,公司对完成 2024 年全年目标充满信心。 • 中国铁建坚持高质量经营原则,不追求无利润的收入,而是注重现金流和 效益效率,并通过保持稳定分红方案,让长期投资者看到公司的投资价值。 • 针对央行推出的 3,000 亿元支持上市公司回购专项借款计划,中国铁建已 组织相关部门进行深入研究和测算,并向管理层汇报了相关方案,但更倾 向于将其作为维护市值的一种手段,在股票价格出现波动时使用。 • 公司在储备相关战略方案,以应对未来可能出现的市场变化,并认为四季 度将有望显著改善上半年的现金流情况,但整体来看,现金流状况有所改 善,但幅度有限。 • 今年整体订单表现较好的领域包括水利和矿山开采业务,特别是矿山开采 业务,由于以往市场占有率较低,目前正加大经营力度,使得该业务量明 显增加。 Q&A 中国铁建在 2 ...
中国消费类资产大涨,后续怎么看?
中国饭店协会酒店&蓝豆云· 2024-10-09 03:26
Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - Focus on the performance of Chinese consumer core assets in the Hong Kong and US stock markets [1] Core Points and Arguments - Discussion led by Yang, who is responsible for overseas institutional clients, highlighting recent interactions with overseas investors [1] - Emphasis on the importance of communication with large listed companies during exchanges with foreign investors [1] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - Insights into the sentiment and perspectives of overseas investors regarding Chinese consumer assets [1]
富途和老虎为什么领涨海外中国资产
中国饭店协会酒店&蓝豆云· 2024-10-08 06:34
Summary of Conference Call Records Company and Industry Involved - Companies: Futu Holdings and Tiger Brokers - Industry: Online brokerage and financial services Core Points and Arguments - **Strong Performance in Overseas Markets**: Futu and Tiger Brokers have excelled in overseas markets due to low valuations post-policy implementation, increased global dollar liquidity, and solid platform metrics such as user stickiness and deposit rates [1][2] - **Global Licensing Strategy**: Both companies have enhanced their competitiveness by acquiring trading licenses globally, including for US stocks and European virtual trading platforms. This strategy has created significant industry barriers and allowed for business expansion through acquisitions [1][3] - **Revival of Chinese Assets**: The resurgence of Chinese assets will directly benefit Futu and Tiger Brokers, as over 90% of their trading assets were previously Chinese. Increased trading volume in the Chinese market is expected to boost platform metrics significantly [1][4] - **Revenue Composition**: The primary revenue sources for Futu and Tiger Brokers are commission and interest income, which together account for over 90% of total revenue. Futu's commission income is primarily from US and Hong Kong stock trading, with a rising share from US trades [1][6] - **Interest Income Breakdown**: Futu's interest income is derived from margin financing, bank deposits, and IPO financing, with margin interest being the largest component. The impact of interest rate changes on bank deposit income is significant due to regulatory requirements [1][7] - **Future Growth Drivers**: Key growth areas include global expansion and virtual asset trading. Futu has launched cryptocurrency services in Hong Kong and Singapore and is awaiting a cryptocurrency license in Hong Kong, while Tiger Brokers has also made significant strides in this area [1][8][17][18] Additional Important Content - **Market Valuation**: In early 2023, the market valuation for these companies was around 20-23 times earnings, making them attractive investment opportunities [2] - **Client Growth Metrics**: Futu reported a significant increase in client deposits, with a net addition of 155,000 clients in Q2, contributing to a total of 2.04 million clients, a year-on-year increase of nearly 30% [1][8] - **Performance Metrics**: In Q2, Futu achieved revenue of HKD 3.1 billion, with a gross margin of 82% and a net profit of HKD 1.2 billion, reflecting strong operational performance [1][8] - **Regulatory Impact on Crypto**: Changes in Hong Kong's regulatory environment regarding crypto assets could significantly influence Futu's business, particularly in terms of liquidity and profitability [1][9] - **Comparison of Business Structures**: Tiger Brokers operates with a dual-account structure, which differs from Futu's single-account model, affecting their revenue generation strategies [1][10][11] - **Performance of Tiger Brokers**: In Q2, Tiger Brokers reported a net income of USD 74 million, a year-on-year increase of over 30%, although net profit was impacted by a one-time charge [1][15] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call records, highlighting the competitive landscape and future outlook for Futu and Tiger Brokers in the online brokerage industry.
美银:关于中国的八个客户问题
中国饭店协会酒店&蓝豆云· 2024-10-07 16:08
China: 8 client questions on China rally | --- | --- | |----------------------------------|-------| | | | | BofA SECURITIES ' BofA Insight | | | MEGA – APAC | | | Global Equity Execution Services | | Sales Commentary not Research 1. Has the China underweight been closed? It will be hard to quantify until we get mutual fund holdings data for Sep/Oct, but if our platform flows are any guide, positioning is starting to look quite full. Long-onlies have net bought US$ 3.4bn over the past two weeks, a similar am ...