Summary of the Conference Call on China Property Market Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Property** market, specifically analyzing trends in unit sales across different tiers of cities in the Asia Pacific region [3][85]. Key Points Unit Sales Performance - **Weekly Secondary Unit Sales**: - Increased by **70% YoY** but decreased by **14.9% WoW** for the week ending December 15, 2024 [1][96]. - **Tier 1 cities** saw a **126% YoY** increase but a **1.9% WoW** decrease [1]. - **Tier 2 cities** experienced a **43% YoY** increase but a **23% WoW** decrease [1]. - **Shenzhen** had the strongest performance among Tier 1 cities with a **185% YoY** increase [1]. - **Weekly Primary Unit Sales**: - Increased by **28% YoY** and **9.8% WoW** [89]. Sell-Through Rates - The total sell-through rate was **61%**, unchanged from the previous week [96][97]. - In **Tier 1 cities**, the sell-through rate was **56%**, up from **50%** in the prior week [97]. - In **Tier 2 cities**, the sell-through rate dropped to **65%** from **75%** [97]. - **Chengdu** recorded the highest sell-through rate at **89%** [97]. Price Index - The **Centaline six-city secondary asking price tracking index** was **26.1%**, up from **25.3%** the previous week, with Chengdu having the highest index at **44.2%** [90]. Market Trends - The report indicates a mixed performance across different tiers of cities, with Tier 1 cities showing stronger resilience compared to Tier 2 cities [1][89]. - The overall market sentiment appears cautious, with fluctuations in both sales and pricing trends [89][90]. Additional Insights - The data reflects ongoing challenges in the property market, particularly in Tier 2 cities, which may indicate potential risks for investors [1][89]. - The strong performance in Shenzhen could present a unique investment opportunity within the Tier 1 city segment [1]. This summary encapsulates the key findings and trends from the conference call regarding the China Property market, highlighting both opportunities and risks for potential investors.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **datacenter market** and **global server shipments** in the **hardware technology** sector, particularly focusing on the **Asia Pacific** region [13][14]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Global Server Shipments**: In 3Q24, global server shipments totaled **3.7 million units**, reflecting a **1% quarter-over-quarter (q/q)** increase and a **19% year-over-year (y/y)** increase [13]. - **AI Server Demand**: AI server shipments continued to ramp up, with Super Micro reporting an **8% q/q** increase in shipments, attributed to improved GPU supply [13]. The average selling price (ASP) for AI servers fell by **1% q/q** to **US$19.5k** due to lower H100 pricing [13]. - **General Compute Server Demand**: General compute server demand is expected to remain stable, with ODMs anticipating **mid-single-digit (MSD) y/y growth** for cloud customers in CY25 [14]. - **High-End Server Performance**: High-end server shipments grew **180% y/y** and **25% q/q**, while mid-range servers increased **113% y/y** and **41% q/q** [38]. Entry-level servers saw a **12% y/y** increase but a **3% q/q** decline [38]. - **Market Share Dynamics**: ODMs regained market share in the general and AI server markets from OEMs, with ODM direct market share increasing to **36.4%** in 3Q24, up **40 basis points (bps)** q/q [35]. Regional Performance - **Regional Growth**: The USA outperformed other regions with a **25% y/y** growth in shipments, followed by Asia Pacific excluding Japan (APxJ) at **18% y/y**, and the rest of the world (ROW) at **13% y/y** [17]. Stock Implications - **Preferred Stocks**: The report favors downstream ODMs such as **Hon Hai (2317.TW)**, **FII (601138.SS)**, **Wiwynn (6669.TW)**, and **Quanta (2382.TW)** for potential investment opportunities [15]. Additional Insights - **ASP Trends**: The ASP for ODM direct servers increased by **38% q/q** to approximately **US$21.6k**, likely due to a higher contribution from AI servers [39]. - **Future Expectations**: The GB200 server racks are expected to ramp up significantly from **mid-February 2025**, with projections of **500 racks in 4Q24**, **~2,000 racks in 1Q25**, and **5,000-10,000 racks in 2Q25** [36]. Conclusion - The datacenter market is experiencing robust growth driven by AI and general compute server demand, with significant opportunities for investment in key ODMs as they regain market share and adapt to evolving technology needs.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **US Economic Data**, focusing on **unemployment claims** and **mortgage applications** trends. Key Points on Unemployment Claims 1. **Initial Claims Increase**: Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose by **17,000** to **242,000** for the week ending December 7, exceeding both the estimate of **232,000** and the consensus of **220,000**. This period is noted as volatile due to seasonal factors [2][5][11]. 2. **4-Week Moving Average**: The 4-week moving average of initial claims increased by **6,000** to **224,000**, remaining below the **227,000** observed at the beginning of November [2][5]. 3. **State-Level Increases**: Increases in initial claims were broad-based across states, with the largest increases in **California**, **Texas**, and **New York**. Notably, California saw a decrease of **10,000** claims in a recent week [3][5]. 4. **Continuing Claims**: Continuing claims rose by **15,000** to **1,886,000**, slightly above expectations and consensus. This level is considered elevated since mid-October [5][11]. 5. **Regional Risks**: Specific risks were highlighted in **Washington**, **Michigan**, and **North Carolina**, where continuing claims remain elevated due to seasonal factors and recent events [5][11]. Key Points on Mortgage Applications 1. **Mortgage Applications Decline**: Mortgage applications for purchase fell by **4.1%** in the week ending December 6, following a series of increases in November [14][15]. 2. **Interest Rates**: The 30-year mortgage contract rate was reported at **6.67%**, a slight decrease from previous weeks but still significantly above the **7.8%** peak in October of the previous year [15][16]. 3. **Market Outlook**: Despite recent monetary policy easing, mortgage rates are expected to remain elevated, which may hinder a significant recovery in mortgage applications [15][16]. Additional Insights - **Seasonal Patterns**: The report notes a potential new seasonal pattern in unemployment claims, suggesting a trend towards lower claims in winter months compared to previous years [4][11]. - **Economic Volatility**: The discussion emphasizes the volatility of economic data during the holiday season, which complicates the interpretation of trends [2][4]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, focusing on unemployment claims and mortgage application trends, while also highlighting potential risks and seasonal patterns in the economic landscape.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Gaming Industry**: Focus on Macau and ASEAN gaming markets, with Macau's November GGR showing a year-over-year increase of 15% and expectations for December GGR to be weaker but already anticipated by investors [3][21] - **Lodging and Real Estate**: Insights into the performance of hotels in China, with signs of RevPAR bottoming out, and the impact of macroeconomic factors on the Indian property market [5][56] Key Insights and Arguments Macau Gaming - November GGR in Macau was better than expected, with a 15% year-over-year increase, while December is projected to show a decline of 2% month-over-month and 1% year-over-year [3][21] - The market is expected to react positively to a potential rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in February, which could benefit Indian property stocks [3][6] - Sands China is preferred over competitors like MGM and Galaxy due to upcoming catalysts such as market share gains and dividend resumption [16][17] Hong Kong Property - October retail sales in Hong Kong declined by 3% year-over-year, which was better than the expected decline of 6% [4][40] - The introduction of a special scheme by HKMA allows for a higher maximum loan-to-value (LTV) ratio for homebuyers, which may help stimulate the residential market [4][42] - Despite some positive indicators, overall sentiment in the Hong Kong property market remains weak, with zero presale applications recorded [36][44] China Hotels - The hotel sector in China is experiencing a short-term recovery, with RevPAR tracking at -5% year-over-year for Q4 2024, but expected to decline further in Q1 2025 [51][53] - The recovery rate for hotel occupancy is showing early signs of improvement, but a year-over-year decline is anticipated to continue into 1Q25 [52][53] Indian Property - The Indian property market is showing signs of recovery, with stocks up 5% week-over-week, driven by improved macroeconomic indicators such as government spending and vehicle sales [6][59] - Godrej is highlighted as a strong investment opportunity with expected presales growth of over 25% year-over-year, while Prestige is downgraded due to slower growth expectations [57][58] Additional Important Points - The potential impact of the upcoming RBI rate cut on REITs and property developers in India is significant, as it could enhance market sentiment [6][60] - The competitive landscape in Macau is shifting, with Sands China expected to outperform due to strategic advantages and upcoming renovations [16][17] - The overall sentiment in the Hong Kong property market is challenged by external factors such as RMB depreciation and changing tourist spending patterns [4][40] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and data points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and outlook of the gaming, lodging, and real estate industries in the Asia Pacific region.

Summary of Morgan Stanley US Equity Strategy Conference Call (December 6, 2024) Company and Industry - **Company**: Morgan Stanley - **Industry**: US Equity Market Key Points and Arguments - **2025 US Equities Outlook**: Investors should remain nimble due to potential uncertainties from recent election outcomes [2][3] - **Price Target Increase**: The base case 12-month price target is raised to 6,500, forecasting a 21.5x P/E multiple on a 12-month forward EPS of US$303 [2][3] - **Earnings Growth Forecast**: Expected EPS growth of 13% in 2025 and 12% in 2026, driven by mid-single-digit revenue growth and margin expansion [2][3] - **Investment Recommendations**: - Long quality cyclicals as Fed rate cuts and stabilizing macro indicators support their outperformance [2][3] - Favorable outlook for Financials following an upgrade in early October [2][3] - Preference for Software over Semiconductors in the Tech sector due to relative earnings revisions [2][3] Additional Important Content - **Market Scenarios for 2025**: 1. **Soft Landing**: Decelerating growth and inflation, with GDP growth below potential and inflation falling towards 2% [28] 2. **No Landing**: Accelerating growth with inflation remaining around 3% [28] 3. **Hard Landing**: Potential recession due to corporate profits recession or unexpected shocks [28] - **Earnings Revisions**: Earnings appear set to rebound in 2025, but forecasts are not improving significantly [36] - **Sector Performance**: The market has priced a strong rebound, with leading economic indicators slowly recovering since mid-2023 [32] - **Equity Risk Premium**: The US equity risk premium is below post-GFC lows, indicating a potentially overvalued market [96][98] - **Sector Recommendations**: - Overweight: Energy, Utilities, Financials, Industrials - Neutral: Communication Services, Health Care, Consumer Cyclicals - Underweight: Staples [55] Conclusion Morgan Stanley's analysis indicates a cautious yet optimistic outlook for the US equity market in 2025, emphasizing the importance of quality investments and adaptability in response to changing economic conditions. The firm anticipates a broadening of market performance after a concentrated 2024, with specific sector preferences guiding investment strategies.

Global Economic Research 06 December 2024 J P M O R G A N Global Data Watch • Incoming data support call for global growth lift into year-end... • ...despite a slipping Euro area and building political stress • Tracking a window for global industry strength before trade war drag • Next week: Firm US CPI (core 0.32); ECB and BoC -50bp; COPOM +100 Enjoy the interregnum This week's November activity readings support our view that global growth is ending the year on a strong note. The all-industry output PMI ro ...

J.P. Morgan Equity Strategy Mislav Matejka (44-20) 7134-9741, mislav.matejka@jpmorgan.com Pedro Martins Junior (55-11) 4950-4121, pedro.x.martins@jpmorgan.com Dubravko Lakos-Bujas (1-212) 622-3601, dubravko.lakos-bujas@jpmorgan.com Global Equity Research 2 December 2024 Global Developed Markets Strategy Dashboard Global Equity Strategy Mislav Matejka, CFAAC (44-20) 7134-9741 mislav.matejka@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities plc Nitya Saldanha, CFA (44-20) 7742-9986 nitya.saldanha@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan S ...

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shuinu9870 shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： Table 1: Daily net subscriptions/redemptions in the last five trading days (USD mn) shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： Global Markets Strategy 27 November 2024 J P M O R G A N EM Equity ETF Flows Daily net subscriptions/redemptions of major EM Equity ETFs – 26 November 2024 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： Rajiv Batra AC (65) 6882-8151 rajiv.j.batra@jpmorgan.com Khoi Vu, CFA (65) ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 Global Economic Research 22 November 2024 J P M O R G A N www.jpmorganmarkets.com Global Data Watch • High-for-long soft-landing to be buffeted by trade war and divergences • Nov flash PMIs flag coming US exceptionalism on steroids… • …and send warning for European growth stall • Up next: US PCE (real 0.1%, core 0.31%), RBNZ -50bp, BoK hold Here we go again We published our year-ahead global economic outlook this week. We maintain a narrative based on growth resilience and stick ...