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新集能源20241025
能源基金会· 2024-10-27 16:11
九毛八是在我们的管控范围之内的所以我们也希望在最后一个月不会有大的成本进入那么从目前的时间来看我们朝着这个目标可能是实现的越来越近了也有可能大概率我们就会实现这种成本管控的这么一个目标 这个是这么个现象那么从销量来看呢其实今年一到三季度末我们同比销量是略有些下降的主要是我们上半年生产有一些阶梯和一些事故的影响造成我们产量偏低那么进入九月份以来九月底以来 公司逐渐在调整生产节奏目前我们争取在四季度在产量上能够对前三季度造成的一些产量的下降能再做一些弥补这样我们判断四季度我们的成本管控相对应该还是比较平滑的管控线是在我们计划范围之内的大概率是不会出现 这么个现象的发生第二个问题我想请您介绍一下目前我们安徽省对于明年的长期电价目前的一个谈判签约的情况有没有一些更新 好的,据我们现在了解,安徽省目前还没有进一步就二五年的床鞋店价有进一步的明确的政策和消息我们判断根据以往的惯例应该会在十二月中旬以后才会出现 那么从安徽省今年1到9月份的电力需求增长来看安徽省的电力供给关系目前还是处于一个偏紧张的态势今年1到9月份安徽省电力需求增长是14%这个增长量应该是在全国电力需求增长排在前列的 那么需求比较好那么电价下降的可能性就 ...
风光核纷纷崛起-新能源板块再迎新机
能源基金会· 2024-10-25 08:43
风光核纷纷崛起,新能源板块再迎新机 20241024 摘要 • 新能源行业近期迎来显著增长,主要得益于技术进步、成本下降、政策支 持以及市场需求的增长等多重因素。 • 供需方面,行业已接近拐点期。需求端保持稳定增长,而供给端资本开支 放缓,落后产能和小企业减产停产,中等规模企业面临并购压力,未来供 给侧将迎来优化。 • 明年是"十四五"规划的最后一年,为完成双碳目标和非化石能源占比目 标,新能源行业将加速发展。供给侧优化将进一步推动行业发展,协会呼 吁防止内卷恶性竞争,并提出统一战线,为行业提供契机。 • 光伏业协会发布组件成本参考价,旨在防止恶性竞争和内卷,规范市场秩 序,提高行业健康发展水平。该举措促使企业注重技术创新和成本控制, 有利于大型龙头企业发挥规模成本优势和环保优势,控制过剩产能。 • 光伏行业龙头企业在规模化、技术优势和成本控制方面具有显著优势,产 业链一体化发展进一步巩固了其竞争力。参考价将加速淘汰中小企业的落 后产能,有利于行业整合和优化资源配置。 • 中国新能源汽车市场保持强劲增长势头,9 月销量创历史新高,但新能源 汽车渗透率仍然较低。未来,新技术如固态电池等将推动新一轮技术进步, 提 ...
风光核纷纷崛起,新能源板块再迎新机
能源基金会· 2024-10-24 16:13
我们直播间的嘉宾是彭华基金量化及衍生品投资部我们直播间的嘉宾是彭华基金量化及衍生品投资部基金经理我们直播间的嘉宾是彭华基金量化及衍生品投资部基金经理我们直播间的嘉宾是彭华基金量化及衍生品投资部基金经理严东总先请东总给我们各位投资者打个招呼 好的大家好我是彭华基金的严东很荣幸有机会跟大家做这样的线上交流好的东总近期利好政策频繁落地迅速点燃市场情绪昨日整个新能源板块全面爆发0涨很多声音说我们的新能源行业正在处于一个重要的拐点技术进步成本下降政策支持包括市场需求的一个增长都在推动着整个行业的一个发展 那真是一幅最大的之一了那么近期呢虽然说这一幅最大的这个之一了那么近期呢虽然说这个这一轮的一个行情主要受更多的是针对这个债务啊房地产啊包括一些内需还有一些 一个表现是比较亮眼那我觉得个人觉得啊更多的可能还是来自于行业自身的一个呃周期啊尤其是供需的这样更多的是针对这个呃债务啊呃房地产啊包括一些内需还有一些民生啊等等方向好像并不是直接拉动行动员啊但是我们看到新闻板块确实最近啊尤其是这个一个是行情初期还有是最近这三个交易 从1到1可能已经过了但是可能是从1到10或者说整个增长起率非常快的一个阶段吧那么需求的爆发增长呢带来的就是 ...
摩根士丹利:印度 – 能源_跟踪利润率
能源基金会· 2024-10-24 10:13
M Update India – Energy | Asia Pacific October 20, 2024 08:08 AM GMT Tracking Margins India's fuel prices are benchmarked to US$80/bbl; we do not expect fuel cuts. Well-supplied oil markets with potential for more surplus supply should continue to tailwind expectations, despite recent investor concerns ahead of state elections. Prefer HPCL and BPCL. Exhibit 1: Integrated margins improve as crude discounts widen; cooking gas losses unwind and oil markets remain well supplied; a street upgrade cycle is ahead ...
九丰能源20241021
能源基金会· 2024-10-23 07:46
非常荣幸的邀请到了九分能源的管理层来给大家做交流首先请允许我介绍一下参会嘉宾我们今天是邀请到了九分能源的副总经理董事会秘书黄总和财务的利益和IT管理中心的总经理朱总两位领导首先欢迎两位领导好大家晚上好谢谢谢谢黄总 我们可以看到首先要恭喜公司取得了非常良好的业绩扣费增长是在前三季度我们可以看到增长还是比较稳健的尤其是单三季度其实公司的数据也披露的比较详细了剔除掉汇兑损益影响之后公司单三季度的规模利润增长是超过了20%这是第一第二就是各项业务上面 其实公司的三大主要业务 清洁能源 能源服务和特器都在一个景气度向上的状态中间比如说清洁能源的毛差和气量还是在呈现一个比较良性的增长那么能源服务的作业量也在增加特器业务无论是我们可以看到 听还是说嗨气的话它的量呢都是在稳步提升的所以整体来看公司的发展状态非常的良好那么伴随三七爆呢公司还披露了一个就是实际控制人的一个承诺不减持的一个协议啊所以可以看到整体从这个 公司本身来讲的话我们相信对未来的发展还是非常有信心的所以我们今天也是邀请到了黄总和朱总来跟大家做一个交流那下面黄总要不请您就公司的情况先给大家做一个分享然后我们开始提问回答好的谢谢袁总各位投资者各位分析师大家晚上好非 ...
新能源金属弱势会持续多久
能源基金会· 2024-10-22 06:37
各位投资人朋友们下午好,今天的话是我们2024年10月第四周的核心策略推荐。本周我们策略的主题是进入基本面一任期,不宜高估节奏和幅度。 那么首先今天的话我们是从这个宏观方面以及新能源切货,包括工业规和生产力这两个品种来进行分析。首先在宏观方面的话,国内方面我们从基本面主要主要来看, 经济还是处在一个租金阶段具体而言的话就是最新的9月金融数据表现依旧不佳信贷市场均同比少增然后M1增速的话是连续6个月回落而且跌幅是在扩大那么同期的一个基建增速虽然是有一个大幅回升然后但是这个消费已经很大 这个策略的话也是有所减弱而且的话就是这个内外需的分化也有所缩减但是我们剔除这个企业性效应以及发力效果来看的话那么相关数据的一个回升态势的话并不是非常稳固所以松绑政策的一个失去压力发力也是这个对经济的一个脱底和提升的一个主要因素 那么从9月24号的一个国内政策底确认以来的话相关的一个具体增量措施还是在围绕货币地产股市财政等四大维度在逐步展开虽然这个宽松的大方向比较明确但是我们从时间角度上来看它的一个实际影响还是需要做一个相对客观的评估那么具体来看的话一个是在这个增量货币政策 A股的规模烈度都还是比较可观,从流流性上来看的话,它对于A ...
摩根大通:清洁能源进入第三季度_风险回报对收益产生负面影响;选举前后的股票想法
能源基金会· 2024-10-21 15:22
North America Equity Research 17 October 2024 J P M O R G A N Clean Energy Into the 3Q Print: Risk-Reward Skews Negative Into Earnings; Stock Ideas for Pre- and Post-Election | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...
限产能扩需求-新能源曙光已现
能源基金会· 2024-10-17 07:48
Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The current state of the renewable energy industry, particularly the photovoltaic (PV) sector, is at a bottoming and recovery stage, with prices having largely bottomed out and expected to undergo a recovery process, benefiting leading companies while eliminating less competitive firms [1][3][6] - The lithium battery sector, led by companies like CATL, continues to achieve stable excess returns due to product differentiation, cost management, and new product launches, despite a high capital expenditure peak from 2022 to 2023 [1][5][10] - The energy storage industry is experiencing the highest growth rate, with a projected global installation growth of approximately 60% this year, surpassing both PV and lithium battery sectors [1][11] Core Insights and Arguments - From a profitability perspective, the PV industry has reached a point where even leading companies are struggling to make profits, indicating that market prices have reached an irrational level [3][17] - The stock prices of renewable energy companies have stabilized, suggesting that the market anticipates a recovery, with investors waiting for signals of demand recovery or price increases [4][21] - Policy measures from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) are aimed at controlling capacity expansion through financing restrictions and higher product standards, indicating a strategic approach to stabilize the industry [6][19] Investment Opportunities and Risks - In the current market environment, investors should focus on companies with strong recovery potential, particularly in less competitive segments of the PV supply chain, such as inverters, which are expected to grow at 20% annually [7][8] - The inverter industry is well-positioned to match industry growth demands, and companies maintaining current profit levels could benefit significantly from this growth [8][12] - The domestic PV market is highly competitive, but companies with unique channel advantages, such as CITIC Bo in the Middle East, have secured substantial orders despite restrictions in the U.S. market [9][18] Future Trends and Projections - The lithium battery sector is expected to see a recovery in capacity utilization by 2025, driven by a slowdown in supply growth and sustained demand, particularly from the electric vehicle and energy storage markets [10][20] - The energy storage sector's growth is expected to continue, with significant demand driven by declining prices in PV and lithium batteries, although the overlap in supply chains may pose risks during periods of oversupply [11][12] - The global energy storage installation is projected to grow significantly, with the U.S. and European markets showing strong potential due to high energy prices and supportive policies [14][15] Additional Considerations - The differences in domestic and international policies significantly impact the renewable energy sectors, with the U.S. focusing on trade barriers and subsidies while China emphasizes consumption stimulation and storage integration [19][21] - The overall outlook for the Chinese renewable energy industry remains optimistic, despite challenges posed by international restrictions, with potential for high growth driven by international cooperation and market expansion [21][26]
限产能扩需求,新能源曙光已现
能源基金会· 2024-10-17 03:28
那我看大家应该都能听到我们的声音也能看到我们的画面那我们今天呢就先开始我们今天首场的一个直播那再次欢迎呢大家来到我们主创新的直播间今天我们的特邀嘉宾是我们的这个行业研究员李昆博士大家好大家好然后那个今天也主要想跟大家分享一下有关新能源行业的一些具体情况那相信呢也有很多先老朋友们来到我们的直播间 有些新的朋友可能对我们红土创新基金也不是特别的了解那我首先也跟大家简单介绍一下我们公司的一些基本情况 那红土创新基金管理有限公司呢是国内的首家创投系公募基金公司我们的公司总部呢是设立在深圳成立于2014年至今呢也已经发展了有十年的光景那公司一直也是秉承着诚信专业创新共赢的一个发展理念持续探索专业化精品化特色化创新化的一个发展路径 所以我们公司整体的管理风格的话相对也是比较稳健的作为深圳的一家公民基金公司我们的股东是单一股东是我们的深圳国企深创投深创投百分百出资设立的目前大家有很多小伙伴应该也知道我们深创投是国内排名第一的一个股权投资机构 设立于1999年成立至今也是战绩辉煌目前管理了4700多亿的一个规模里头的上市企业也将近有300家也是创了国内创投机构的一个投资记录那红土创新基金作为全国首家的创投系公募基金也是具备了 ...
水利能源等基本盘领域扎实推进-交通-智慧城市领域绘制第二增长曲线
能源基金会· 2024-10-16 16:27
Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Company Overview - 嵇康仪器 was established in 1998, focusing on the research, production, and sales of intelligent monitoring sensor systems, providing comprehensive solutions and services for the Internet of Things in monitoring [1][2] - The company's revenue primarily comes from intelligent monitoring terminal sensors and related solutions and services [1][2] Core Business Areas - 嵇康仪器 operates in the safety monitoring industry chain, manufacturing sensors and engaging in some installation and integration work [3] - The products and technologies are applied in major national infrastructure and environmental safety monitoring, including dams, reservoirs, nuclear power plants, bridges, tunnels, and geological disaster points [1][2] Technological Capabilities - The company possesses several core technologies, including sinusoidal sensing technology, fiber Bragg grating sensing technology, optoelectronic sensing technology, and IoT integration applications with cloud services [5][7] - 嵇康仪器 has participated in the formulation of national standards and industry norms, holding 18 new product technologies and 25 invention patents [7] Clientele - Major clients include state-owned enterprises, large construction companies, and research institutions, with long-term cooperative relationships established [6] Financial Performance - The company has shown steady revenue growth over the past four years, with a 9.97% year-on-year increase last year, reaching a high level [8] - Net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 20%, exceeding 70 million yuan [8] - The gross profit margin has remained around 50%, and the company has distributed a total of 101 million yuan in dividends since its listing [9] Market Environment - The national emphasis on the digitalization and intelligence of infrastructure, supported by various policy documents from government agencies, has created a favorable external environment for the company's growth [1][18] Industry Applications - The company has significant projects in various sectors: - **Water Resources**: Involvement in major projects like the South-to-North Water Diversion Project and safety monitoring for small reservoirs [12] - **Energy**: Long-term supply to major hydropower stations and participation in nuclear power projects [13] - **Transportation**: Key projects include safety monitoring for bridges and tunnels, such as the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge [14] - **Smart Cities**: Contributions to urban infrastructure and safety monitoring systems [15] Future Outlook - The company anticipates new business opportunities from major projects in the energy sector and ongoing infrastructure upgrades [18][19] - The demand for water resources monitoring is expected to grow rapidly due to government bond projects requiring completion by year-end [25] Order and Revenue Insights - As of the third quarter, the company has reached a record high in orders, with water-related projects expected to dominate in the upcoming quarters [22] - The company has a high bid rate for pumped storage projects, indicating a strong competitive position [21] Challenges and Risks - Extreme weather conditions have impacted the disaster prevention and water information sectors, but the company has successfully completed several related projects [28] - The order cycle varies by industry, with shorter cycles for small reservoir monitoring compared to energy projects [29] R&D and Innovation - The company is actively developing new technologies, including machine vision and special robots, which are expected to have broad market potential [36] Conclusion - 嵇康仪器 is well-positioned for continued growth in the intelligent monitoring sector, supported by strong financial performance, a diverse client base, and a commitment to innovation and technology development [1][8][18]