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静水深流 溯源以理——对话九坤投资郭泓辰
21世纪新健康研究院· 2024-12-20 05:24
个人和企业发展所需的融资需求发挥中金一家优势我们凝聚服务的力量中金公司依托教造的国际化布局凭借中金国际财富管理平台为客户面接全球优质资产开启财富人生 在数字金融的大潮中我们拥抱科技创新的力量打造全渠道数字化的客户服务平台不断拓展服务的边界将复杂的投资流程转化为便捷的投资体验以遍布天南地北的智慧网点使优质金融服务生动鲜活触手可及 很荣幸今天我们邀请到了来自久坤投资的市场研究负责人郭鸿成来到我们直播间与大家进行交流有请郭老师跟观众朋友们打个招呼吧先大家好我是久坤投资的郭鸿成非常感谢大家时间然后也很荣幸在这里跟大家交流郭鸿成先生于2021年就加入了久坤投资现任久坤投资市场研究负责人负责于 也好还是直播间里的各位观众朋友们也好想必都累积了不少的心得与感慨随着这个岁月的流转每个人都经历了成长和蜕变因此我在这里首先想跟郭老师就先探讨一个问题就是相比于一年半之前您做客明慧和听您感觉您在哪些方面有一些改变又在哪些方面一直保持着不变呢 在未来还会继续下去是的就正如郭老师刚刚所说整个市场包括量化行业量化管理人员以及郭老师个人在这过去这一年多的时间里都经历了一些迭代和成长那么尽管外部的环境不断的在变化但我们的初心一直是始终如一的我 ...
FOMC鹰派降息之后
21世纪新健康研究院· 2024-12-20 05:24
各位投资者大家早上好那在今天凌晨的美联储的一些会议其实我们看到就是说整个江西25G系是否则已去的但是从美联储无论是声明当中呈现出来的点阵图把明年江西从之前的三次缩减到了两次那包括到鲍威尔讲话其实也明显感觉出来对于后续的这个表达了对于后续的一个通胀上线的一个担忧以及呢 后续降息的幅度包括节奏也都有一些平均性的表达包括投票也是有委员投票表示这一次可以不降息是11比1的结果 美联储对于通胀起来的风险有比较多的一个担忧其实反映出来也是这一顺的调整的这个叠占图也对后续的这个通胀包括失业率经济增速这个涨幅都有做调整那值得注意的就是对于核心PCE的这个预期中值实际上从明年包括后年随时都往上调整了50个BP左右那这个风险是非常大的 只是说工业这一块无论是工业金属还是能源价格还是相对偏弱的一个状态但是后续随着特朗普上来之后加征关税包括对内做减税的这些操作其实带来的影响就是整个通道会重新往上去走这个走的强度和持续时间可能跟特朗普加关税包括做成财政刺激的 市场反馈也是对应着后续联储放缓降息的预期无论是股票还是债市包括汇率商品都出现了对应的波动首先看美债美债利率实际上出现了比较明显的上升也是对应着我们之前强调的美债利率有一个二次上冲 ...
头部仓储会员制商超专家
21世纪新健康研究院· 2024-12-20 05:24
然后在这个日常的一个工作对日常的工作过程中呢我们也是会有区域的HRM会组织一个学习培训小组然后会定期的给到我们店做一些赋能所以现在一个人才的一个培训这一块公司的一个投入还是蛮大的了解看跟其他的商超比这个 然后第二个你说到这个就是一些福利待遇的话,开幕是OK的,但是对比胖东来来说,我觉得其实最重要的还是在这个对员工的一些,就是这种内分员工上面的一些薪资投资,那个资金投资还是不够的,胖东来其实。 三不有很多的这种老员工是很羡慕胖东来的对这个员工的一个这个关怀和他对员工的一个重视的 了解 明白还有就是再问一下就是因为Costco也是会员是超级会员式的超市您觉得山姆和Costco在中国的对比看有哪些地方做得更好有什么这两个超市有什么优劣势吗在中国的一个运营的话Costco的话其实 而且这个陈志昌是很好的去解决了课单价格、配送单价这个之间的一些矛盾,通过线下这个做好口碑,然后线上只是他更好服务会员的一种途径,然后去搞定了他线上的一个课单价。 然后第三个的话呢是三母它是这种集中的一个采购形成这样的一个规模化那一年差不多有这个800亿的一个销售规模足够大那所以它的商品是有非常大的一个优势啊例如说像我们的一个十几的一个单这个 ...
特朗普想偷偷挖油,反手被OPEC+延长减产
21世纪新健康研究院· 2024-12-20 05:24
那第四个部分就是在2024年地缘政治其实频发从人道主义的角度上来说其实这样一个地缘政治的发生其实会令我们比较去关注并且认为是对世界产生了很大的冲击的但实际上它对于能源气候来说确实造成了大家对能源运输的这样一个 这个价格的复盘以及对整个供需全球情况的一个展望好的感谢思乔同学的介绍好那有请王博士感谢思乔同学的介绍那我们首先呢我们直接进入到这个主题啊就是对2025年的能源展望最重要的我们来看一下原油啊我们对原油的这个评估啊其实啊对于明年2025年的一个原油看空的这个也不是说我们一个人的观点了现在目前全球 我们甚至现在觉得就是小一点的地缘风险,几乎对原油造不成影响,比如说叙利亚12天被疏通。待会我们也会来解释一下为什么是这个样子。所以说这种级别的地缘风险,如果放在几年前,可能会对原油油价造成至少有个3到5美元的溢价,但是现在我们觉得几乎是零溢价。再一个就是全球经济的一个问题。 他觉得可能会砍向我们但事实上一刀是砍向了很多盟友无论是韩国还是加拿大都已经感受到了色色发威然后这个中东这个地方呢其实就是坦如重中之重的一个地方目前面临的局势其实是比较严峻的刚才四条也介绍了地缘冲突一起跟战争一起其实受伤的还是普通的百姓我们也看到 ...
生猪—11月数据的线索
21世纪新健康研究院· 2024-12-20 05:24
编辑来看呢其实到这个十二月中旬这个初产体重还是有130公斤然后阅读来看呢十月这个初产体重缓避十月也是有增加0.6公斤是达到了120.6所以从这个这个这个供应量就从肉重这个角度来看整个这个体重的压力 先看这个屠宰量屠宰量呢不论是永逸还是高原监促的样本企业日度屠宰量其实从尤其从十二月十二月就是七八号开始啊已经是十天左右的连续环比上升这个增幅还是非常明显的那么更近中端需求的毛白价差来看了因为毛白价差走扩它意味着这整个白条的走扩会更加顺畅那整个价格的上涨会更加的这个传导更加通畅 生殖数量的连续环比增加并且体重也在增加的情况下但是这个猪价的跌幅其实是非常小的然后同时其实最近一个周来基本上是跌不动了基本上是稳住了那就说明整个猪肉的需求在最近允许这个十来天左右接近半个月时间里它这个改善的幅度还是比较大的可以说猪肉的需求还是非常健康的一个水平这以上就是我们讲现在这个一个价格表现以及背后的供需情况 11月份之后其实整个东北库层基本上也是维持在一个15%左右的水平今年因为整体市场其实对于这个出租期的预期也不高所以投赛企业相对来说也是以保持高先效率为主整个先效率其实在下半年基本上都是维持在90%以上的水平推进的先效率可能都达到了9 ...
四维图新20241219
21世纪新健康研究院· 2024-12-20 05:24
Summary of Conference Call Records Company and Industry Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **autonomous driving technology** industry and the collaboration with **Huoshan Cloud** for model training and data management. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Click Data Definition and Scale**: Click data refers to video segments ranging from 20 seconds to one minute, with scales typically in the millions or even tens of millions. This necessitates a robust storage system to manage and train on such large datasets [1][2][3]. 2. **Infrastructure Requirements**: The need for high storage capacity and performance is emphasized, as video data requires significant I/O performance. The training process is described as multi-machine and multi-card, demanding high concurrency [2][3]. 3. **Collaboration with Huoshan**: The partnership with Huoshan involves creating dedicated training and storage clusters, which are physically close to reduce data transmission time. This collaboration aims to enhance training efficiency and stability [4][5]. 4. **Challenges in Model Training**: The training process is complex, requiring high-quality driving video data to improve model learning. The need for a comprehensive model that can handle various scenarios is highlighted [2][3]. 5. **Stability and Fault Tolerance**: The training mechanism relies on multi-card collaboration, where any node failure can halt the entire training process. Thus, stability and fault tolerance are critical [5][6]. 6. **AI Infrastructure Development**: The AI infrastructure encompasses data collection, labeling, compliance, pre-labeling, simulation evaluation, and training, indicating a comprehensive data loop capability [6][8]. 7. **Talent Acquisition and Growth**: The company has seen significant talent acquisition, enhancing its capabilities in the autonomous driving sector. This includes a team of over 200 individuals involved in vehicle delivery and support [8][9]. 8. **Future Expectations**: The collaboration with Huoshan is expected to yield further advancements in technology and solutions, with a focus on improving product delivery and user experience [7][9][10]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Market Trends**: The company is transitioning from low-end to high-end products, aiming to escape price wars and enhance profitability [10]. 2. **Revenue Growth**: There is an indication of a gradual upward trend in revenue, particularly in the second and third quarters of the year, despite some challenges in the market [9][10]. 3. **Chip Industry Insights**: The discussion touches on the chip industry, with expectations for continued releases of SOC and MCU products, indicating a broader technological context [10]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, focusing on the company's strategic initiatives, technological advancements, and market positioning within the autonomous driving industry.
美光科技20241219
21世纪新健康研究院· 2024-12-20 05:24
Thank you for standing by and welcome to Micron Technologies' fiscal first quarter 2025 financial conference call. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question during this session, you'll need to press star 11 on your telephone. If your question has been answered and you'd like to remove yourself from the queue, simply press star 11 again. at investors.micron.com, including audio and slides. In additi ...
欧洲电价暴涨,后续怎么看
21世纪新健康研究院· 2024-12-20 05:24
Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the European electricity market, focusing on the impact of weather conditions, renewable energy integration, and regulatory responses to market dynamics. Key Points Weather Impact on Energy Supply - The recent warm winter has led to a significant increase in renewable energy installations, particularly in wind power, but has also resulted in low wind output during critical periods, affecting electricity generation [1][2] - Norway and Sweden have reported high water reservoir levels, which positively impacts hydroelectric power generation, contrasting with the energy crisis experienced in 2022 [1][5] - The electricity supply situation in Europe is better this year compared to the previous two years, largely due to favorable hydro conditions [1] Market Reactions and Regulatory Concerns - There has been emotional market behavior in response to price fluctuations, particularly following low wind conditions that led to significant price spikes [2][3] - Regulatory bodies in Germany are investigating potential market manipulation due to high pricing strategies employed by certain fuel power plants during low output periods [2][4] - The pricing strategy of fuel power plants is under scrutiny, as some plants are reportedly quoting prices significantly higher than their operational costs [3][4] Renewable Energy Integration Challenges - The increasing share of renewable energy in the electricity mix has led to challenges in balancing supply and demand, particularly during periods of low wind and solar output [3][6] - The discussion highlights the need for improved cross-border electricity interconnections to enhance the efficiency of renewable energy distribution across Europe [6][7] Future Price Predictions - Short-term predictions indicate that electricity prices may remain high due to ongoing uncertainties in weather patterns and energy supply dynamics [7][12] - The first quarter of the upcoming year is expected to see high gas and electricity prices, influenced by weather conditions and demand fluctuations [12][13] - There is a consensus that while current prices are elevated, they may stabilize or decrease later in the year, depending on market conditions and regulatory changes [12][19] Capacity and Infrastructure Concerns - Discussions are ongoing regarding the adequacy of backup capacity in the European electricity market, particularly as older coal and gas plants are phased out [14][15] - The need for new gas plants and energy storage solutions is emphasized, as existing infrastructure may not meet future demand [15][16] - Norway's role as a power exporter is questioned, especially in light of high domestic electricity prices and the potential need to reduce interconnection capacities with Europe [5][6] Regulatory and Policy Developments - The European Union is focusing on energy policy reforms to enhance competitiveness and reduce electricity prices, with ongoing discussions about the pace of renewable energy project approvals [16][17] - The impact of geopolitical factors on energy supply and pricing is acknowledged, with particular attention to the implications of the Ukraine conflict on gas supply routes [17][18] Conclusion - The European electricity market is currently navigating a complex landscape influenced by weather, regulatory scrutiny, and the integration of renewable energy sources. Future price stability and capacity adequacy remain critical areas of focus for stakeholders in the industry [19][20]
美联储降息“变奏”,将如何影响全球市场
21世纪新健康研究院· 2024-12-20 05:24
各位澎湃新闻网友大家好欢迎收看本期首期连线节目我是澎湃新闻记者田中方12月19日凌晨美联储将联邦基金利率的目标区间下调25个基点至4.25%至4.5%与此同时美联储暗示将放慢降息节奏2025年仅降息两次作用消息下美股应声大跌 同时曾在美国联邦储备银行也就是我们说的美联储任高级经济学家多年负责金融经济研究和金融政策的分析与推荐 应该说这次降息25个基点虽然说是符合大家的预期但其实从它的理由来说并不是特别的充分因为我们如果看它的核心指标也就是它的工作的KPI通胀率那么以CPI来看的话在过去三个数据点实际上是出现了轻微的上扬从2.4一路反弹到了2.7 那么当然了从一方面讲的话当下的这样一个高利率相对于我们已经接近目标的这样一个情况来看似乎也是有降息的理由因此就出现了这样一种两派的这种不同的观点虽然看见了只有一个反对票但是我相信基于美联储的内部的工作文化来说出现一个反对票意味着其实有更多人已经持不同意见了所以这样一个焦灼的情况之下出现这样一个比较为难的局面 还是要维持一个相对高的利率来压制通胀率的持续攀升那么因此就是说如果它降得比较快那么是降息步骤可以快一些但如果它降得很慢甚至还有反弹的话其实是放慢降息的速度是有道理 ...
兰生股份20241219
21世纪新健康研究院· 2024-12-20 05:24
Summary of Conference Call Company and Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the developments and strategies of a company involved in the organization of events, particularly in the artificial intelligence (AI) sector and marathon events. The company aims to leverage platforms like the World Artificial Intelligence Conference to build a service ecosystem in the AI field [6][7][8]. Key Points and Arguments Artificial Intelligence Sector - The company plans to enhance its influence and capabilities by hosting the World Artificial Intelligence Conference, which is expected to gain more prestige and impact in the coming year [6]. - A focus on creating a service ecosystem for AI startups, including providing resources for financing, project roadshows, and media exposure [8]. - The introduction of a membership model and paid services for knowledge sharing and events, aiming for a diversified revenue structure [9]. Marathon Events - The Shanghai Marathon has seen a significant increase in participation, with nearly 260,000 registrants this year, a rise of at least 20-30% compared to the previous year [11]. - Innovations in the marathon include the introduction of a competitive wheelchair category and enhancements in participant experience and route optimization [11]. - The company aims to align with international standards to attract more international runners and plans to enter the World Marathon Majors by 2027 [12]. Event Management and Venue Operations - The company has organized over 90 exhibition projects this year, with a total rental area exceeding 10 million square meters, marking a 6% increase from the previous year [2]. - The rental rates for venues have increased by 5%, contributing to improved occupancy rates [2]. - Future plans include expanding operations to other venues and possibly managing additional venues similar to the successful operation of the Expo venue [20]. International Expansion and ESG Initiatives - The company has made efforts to expand internationally, including participation in events in South America and Singapore, with plans to continue this trend [14]. - An emphasis on Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) practices, with plans to release the first ESG report in April next year, focusing on green management and logistics [15]. Strategic Acquisitions and Partnerships - The company is exploring strategic acquisitions in the pet industry and other sectors to enhance its portfolio and revenue streams [16][17]. - There is a focus on developing proprietary IP for events, with several new projects launched in collaboration with international partners [18]. Additional Important Content - The company is responding to market demands by diversifying its event offerings and enhancing the overall experience for participants and attendees [10]. - The management is aware of the challenges posed by geopolitical factors in international expansion and is committed to a stable approach in pursuing new opportunities [14]. This summary encapsulates the key discussions and strategic directions outlined in the conference call, highlighting the company's commitment to growth in the AI and event management sectors while addressing market trends and operational enhancements.