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重庆啤酒20241219
21世纪新健康研究院· 2024-12-20 05:24
我们看公司最近其实也开始做了一些多样化发展的这种策略的尝试相信大家包括我们也是高度关注那开场的这个时间呢可能还是先交给袁总要不先辛苦您几分钟吧能不能讲一讲我们目前看到这个2014年Q4还有今年全年对这个让价的这个预期的一个这个总结看能否先上线做一个提示袁总 因为J4季度已经进入啤酒行业传统的一个淡季了那大家从我们2023年季度的年度报告也可以看得到其实J4季度占公司整体的销量的比例是比较少的J4季度23年只占啤酒销量的13%到14%左右所以从J4季度来看首先J4季度整体上就是啤酒行业的一个淡季 从我们公司负分的角度来看,目前暂时没有感受到特别大的明显的变化也就是说当下我们感受到的情况是没有再继续变差但是也没有说比如说像人均消费低就餐频次减少这些现象也并没有感受到特别明显的变化 但切忘记的时候行业需求目前能有什么展望或者说公司的预期的角度您觉得我们其实现在更多不是看Q-star就看二五年了从量价成本极快我们自己大概是个什么样的一个展望展望二五年的话目前首先定义我们暂时没有办法去跟大家分享具体的财务数据的展望比如说从销量的角度 能跟大家分享的是呢,第一,我们这个加州国全球的总裁在之前接受媒体采访的时候呢,对中国整 ...
央行重启购金,如何把握黄金配置价值
21世纪新健康研究院· 2024-12-20 05:24
可以预期未来的一个点就是这对于降息预期而言它影响的更多的是环境的金融属性那么它可能影响的只是一些短期的一些情绪上的一些国益对于长期的这种中长期的金价的一个影响的话它更多的是受到整个降息周期的一个影响 那么再叠加我们未来可能这个环境它的一个避险功能所给它带来的一些风险溢价所以说我们认为整个一个新价在未来的2025年来讲的话大概率还是会有一个正收益的就是 那刚刚其实姚总也比较多的提到了就是美国这边大选啊包括这样一些我们后面呢其实都会跟大家再做一些详细的分析那这边的话呢也先请教一下王老师因为王老师刚好看策略的应该对美国这边的政策变化也关注比较多那想请教一下就是说通常就是说我们看这个或者说最近这一次吧美国大选的可能会对黄金他大概因为这个周期可能也有这种四年吧大概会有一个什么样的影响王老师 上一次特朗普第一任期他的这个黄金的表现上一任特朗普政府他有一个他最重要的政策主张可能就是第一他要对内减税第二他要对外加税在减税方面的话就是特朗普上一任的时候他降低了企业的这个税率废除了这个替代性最低限额税然后还提高了这个税前的扣除比例等等措施 这样投资者或者市场就会对黄金的避险的需求有所增加另一方面减税会有利于它的经济进而带来它的通 ...
字节AI更新
21世纪新健康研究院· 2024-12-20 05:24
Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference focused on advancements in AI models, particularly in the fields of visual understanding, music generation, and video production, indicating a strong trend towards enhancing AI capabilities across various sectors [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Pricing Competitiveness**: The input price for the Doubao Visual Understanding Model is 0.003 yuan per thousand tokens, which is 85% lower than the industry average, allowing for processing of 284 images at 720P for just 1 yuan [1][2]. 2. **Doubao Music Model 4.0**: This version supports lyric input to generate music, expanding from one-minute compositions to full three-minute songs, including various musical segments [1][2]. 3. **New Model Releases**: The conference introduced Doubao's 1.5 versions of Koushi and HiAgent, which provide templates for diverse industry applications, emphasizing low barriers to entry, personalization, real-time capabilities, and multimodal advantages [1][2]. 4. **Performance Improvement**: The updated Doubao General Model Pro has seen a 30% increase in comprehensive task handling capabilities since May, with significant enhancements in reasoning, instruction adherence, coding, mathematics, and specialized knowledge [1][2]. 5. **Future of AI Video Production**: The Doubao Video Production Model is set to launch in January 2025, with expectations of empowering industries such as IPR, film, gaming, education, and marketing [1][2]. 6. **Token Usage Growth**: As of December, the daily token usage for Doubao's large model exceeded 4 trillion, marking a growth of over 33 times since its launch in May [2]. 7. **AI Search and Infrastructure**: The introduction of a comprehensive AI search tool by Huoshan Engine aims to enhance information retrieval and recommendation for enterprises, alongside updates to AI cloud and infrastructure services [2]. Additional Insights 1. **Investment Recommendations**: Investors are encouraged to focus on companies with strong IP holdings, particularly in sectors like media and gaming, where AI capabilities can enhance customer interaction and operational efficiency [3][4][5]. 2. **AI Toy and Emotional Companion Products**: The market for AI toys and emotional companion products is highlighted as a promising area, with companies like Shanghai Film and Tom Cat being recommended for their strong IP and product development efforts [4][5]. 3. **Game Industry Empowerment**: The potential for AI to enhance the gaming industry is noted, especially with the increasing capabilities of AI-generated 3D assets, suggesting rapid application in gaming scenarios [4][5]. 4. **Focus on IP-Driven Companies**: The emphasis on companies that can leverage original IP content to create new offerings is reiterated, aligning with the broader trend of integrating AI into various consumer-facing products [3][4][5]. This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference, highlighting the advancements in AI technology and its implications for various industries and investment opportunities.
氧化铝合约交易规则及产业链供需介绍
21世纪新健康研究院· 2024-12-20 05:24
那从这个行业的分布来看也是发生了比较大的切换2017年供给侧改革以来然后没有办法去再度扩张的情况之下然后电解铝它只能形成这种能源负极和低电价的地区去转移的趋势所以 从产能分布的一个情况来看内蒙和云南成为了电解铝产能转移的重点区域而在2022年双碳政策的影响之下内蒙的火电产能未来扩张的空间是比较有限了而云南四川等地的水电优势将继续吸纳产能流入然后第三个 由于云南四川等地它是受制于水电方面的供应相对比较不稳定有这种古风和枯水期的一个情况所以导致电力的供应存在一定的这种不稳定会影响到电解铝行业的整体的产能运行 然后这个是云南目前的一个状态可以看到它的发电结构水力发电占到了80%然后火力发电只有12%所以说未来其实不确定性相对比较大的还是在云南省它受制于电力端的影响可能会有比较大的供应端的搞动然后从成本端来看的话 电解铝的成本主要还是氧化铝和电力为主尤其是今年的氧化铝价格暴涨之后氧化铝的成本其实是超过了40%以上然后电解铝也是受制于氧化铝的价格暴涨利润也是受到了比较大的侵蚀导致24年整体的 电解铝的这个利润一度出现了亏损的一个状态那么在这种这个氧化铝价格极端的一个情况之下然后包括后续呢后续的一个市场的这个运行其实也存 ...
下行周期商用车企业如何引以为鉴
21世纪新健康研究院· 2024-12-20 05:24
hello大家好很高兴这个机会可以再见面我是投报研究院行业分析师马天奇欢迎收看本期投报带您读研报的项目今天我们一起来探讨一下上级红眼的案例分析在下行周期下商用车企业如何引以为戒投报研究院持续关注市场上各行业的发展动向搭建专业报告数据库 重点开发非洲物流市场那么目前东一新科决定实施债权重组因为自打21年收购他之后东一新科的财务状况就一直表现不是很好连续亏损那么他需要这样去缓解上期红颜的破产风险但若军药商回返不及进度不及预期 那么我们首先来细节的看一下上线红岩的概况那么他他其实创立于1965年前身呢其实就是著名的四川汽车制造厂当时的历史背景是其实中国大家都知道有一汽一汽集团那么还有二汽也就是现在东风汽车那么其实有意在想搞出一个三汽出来但是呢后来 在第一阶段他主要是建立从宜宾汽车制造厂开始这些都不是特别重要后面又下放到四川省是四川汽车制造厂他真正进入大体系内是第三阶段那么他被并入了中汽集团后来呢就进入了上汽体系而且是合资 这时候就变成了上期EV科红岩也就是上期和EV科合资但是呢里面的问题就比较多了不可否认的是EV科它是有一定的技术优势的可是影像红岩其实最早期依靠的也是斯泰尔的技术后面他可以吸收EV科EV科的技术去发 ...
中国跨境仓储行业:机遇与挑战并存的全球化物流新时代
21世纪新健康研究院· 2024-12-20 05:24
早期啊这个跨境电商代价的这个物流方式主要是以邮政小包为主那后期他就跨境商品的逐步演进至了一种提量化大重量高时效的产品那海外仓的凭借这个多样性时效性还有成本的这方面的优势呢那其实现在是越来越受到大家的一个青睐使用海外仓 那在2019年到2021年期间由于全球疫情大爆发使得全球各大港口拥堵并且这个货物的卸货周期延长所以说当时消费者还有卖家也是意识到了这个海外仓的优势所以说采用海外仓模式的这种出口供应链解决方案也是在2019年到2021年之间实现了一个大幅的增长 那持有模式的话它这个持有模式的市场空间其实跟空运的这个费率是密切相关的那疫情的时候空运的运力快速的增加就增加这个需求快速增加但是说因为疫情所以当时这个航班数量有所减少 当时的这个航班费用是有一个大幅的提升的那在疫情结束之后这个空运运力恢复到了一个正常水平随之而来的这个货运费率也是下降未来受到这个俄乌战争还有巴以冲突的影响你预计这个空运费率还会有一个上升的空间从而去带动自由模式 在这个市场空间有一个上涨未来呢这个出口电商供应链解决方案市场主要是受到政策支持还有这个跨境网购活跃海外散布及新技术应用的这四大因素的一个驱动政策方面的话比如说像 这个2021年广东省 ...
五菱汽车20241219
21世纪新健康研究院· 2024-12-20 05:24
Summary of Conference Call Records Company and Industry Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the automotive parts industry, focusing on a specific company involved in supplying components to various automotive manufacturers, including high-end models. Key Points and Arguments Revenue and Profit Margins - The company's revenue from automotive parts has seen a decline in profit margins, with the share of revenue from a specific segment dropping from approximately 75% in 2021 to 62% in the current year [1][2][3]. - The profit margins for lower-priced models are thinner, while higher-end models, such as those supplied to Great Wall Motors, yield better margins [2][3]. Client Relationships and Market Share - The company has expanded its client base, with Great Wall Motors now accounting for over 10% of its revenue, particularly from high-end models like the Tank series [2][3]. - Other clients include Chery and Geely, with a gradual increase in the share of revenue from these new customers [3]. Product Development and Technology - The company has developed advanced products using high-strength steel technology, which is crucial for lightweight and high-strength automotive components [5][6]. - The introduction of new products, such as those for collision safety, has led to a significant expansion in the market size for these components [5][6]. Powertrain Systems - The powertrain segment has seen an increase in profit margins from 21% to 23% over the past few years, primarily driven by revenue from fuel engines [7][8]. - The company is also transitioning towards electric and hybrid powertrains, with new clients in the electric vehicle sector [8][9]. Commercial Vehicle and Modification Business - The modification business, particularly for commercial vehicles, is a significant revenue stream, with a focus on customized vehicles for various applications [12][14]. - The company is actively pursuing new clients for modification services, aiming to expand its market share in this segment [14][15]. Export Strategy - The company has increased its export efforts, targeting traditional automotive markets such as Japan and Europe, and expanding into Southeast Asia and Africa [16][17]. - The export of modified vehicles and specialized models is a key focus area, with plans to enhance production capabilities for international markets [16][17]. Smart Technology and Innovation - The company is investing in smart technology, including mobile charging solutions and autonomous driving systems, to enhance its product offerings [18][19]. - The development of a one-ton monitoring chassis for low-speed autonomous driving applications is a notable innovation [19][20]. Future Outlook - The company remains optimistic about its growth trajectory, particularly in the commercial vehicle sector, despite current challenges in the passenger vehicle market [22][24]. - There is a focus on maintaining a strong brand presence in the commercial vehicle market before considering entry into the more competitive passenger vehicle segment [24]. Other Important but Overlooked Content - The company has not disclosed specific revenue percentages for various segments but indicates that the profitability of the modification services is relatively high compared to other business areas [11][12]. - The impact of market conditions on the company's performance, particularly in the context of client order delays, has been acknowledged, with expectations for improvement in the upcoming quarters [22][24].
中概股更新20241219
21世纪新健康研究院· 2024-12-20 05:24
好的 谢谢杨雨晨帮我们今天安排这次交流也感谢投资者的关注那我大概先简要介绍一下我们三季度的情况包括近期大家可能比较关注的这个需求和风险表现然后后续如果有任何问题我们可以在KMA进一步交流 比如说在国内的话我们的成交额是495亿然后同比是增长0.8%然后环比是增长6.7%大环银额结合到K3国内是达到665亿然后同比是增长2.9%然后环比是增长3.7%所以这些都意识着整体的这个行业的基本面的情况现在是往中降好 3C建筑呈现的需求回应 它实际上跟4C建筑也是得以延续总体来看的话 就是9月底的一系列4G政策是让我们感受到一个国务委员对国内业务的长期发展是更有关那在国内业务方面 我们是在保持八十万的前提下持续的投入不管是顾客还是客户体验方面 请看下方评论 所以整体来看今年的这个风险的这个状况在下半年其实也是优于去年下半年的 那这个基因成本其实也是有比较大的改善是下降了190个倍这个降幅是非常显著的那背后的原因呢不光光是国内整体的这个利率下行另外还有就是我们是今年比较少有的然后在这样的一个历史环境下还能有一定规模然后去达到一定现在资产量增长的这样的一个 所以我们的take rate也是保持了一个稳中向好的趋势那在Q3的话 ...
为什么要强调视觉理解大模型?
21世纪新健康研究院· 2024-12-20 05:24
欢迎参加西部正统大为什么要强调视觉理解大模型电话会议目前中央的财务队均处于静音状态将在开始公布你们的声明声明公布完毕后本项人可直接发表发言之前本次电话会议服务于西部证券研究所客户不构成投资建议相关人员应自主作出投资决策并自行承担投资风险西部证券不应使用本次内容所导致的任何损失承担任何责任 而且最关键的就是我觉得自己的整个对于大模型投入它的应用投入的整个组织架构非常清晰我上次电话会也说了就是自己对于整个大模型的AI呢它就分为三个大的团队就是SAID还有SAID是做大模型的然后做产品的FLOW还有做支持的STORM然后它所有的不管是模型还是产品都有保合式的攻击 视觉理解的模型呢它是昨天上午给大家看了视频然后呢它是明年1月份然后推的这个产品跟我在电话会议和跟我发的各种报告里面给大家的预期应该是一致的对吧我说的是今年年底明年年初苏杰会发这个带有视觉理解能力的交互性动态大模型它就是这样它本质就是个交互性动态大模型大家看演示就看出来了就是你不管是拿着手机还是戴着眼镜还是拿着什么什么 所以还是有的还不稳定啊就各种各样的问题那之前说他能这个三季度四季度末今年年初明年年初发布呢我当时是有两张新专辑的后来呢我去参加了洛克的会议啊 ...
长城汽车20241219
21世纪新健康研究院· 2024-12-20 05:24
Summary of Conference Call Records Company and Industry - The conference call primarily discusses **Great Wall Motors** and its new vehicle models, particularly focusing on the **Hyper-Z architecture** and the **off-road vehicle market** in China. Key Points and Arguments 1. **New Model Launches**: The **Hyper-Z 500** model began pre-sales on December 3, receiving approximately **6,000 orders** within the first 24 hours, with daily orders currently ranging from **100 to 200 units** [1][2][3]. 2. **Sales Growth Potential**: The company anticipates a continuous increase in orders due to effective marketing and channel transformation, with a strong probability of replicating past successes with new products in 2025 [2][3]. 3. **High-End Vehicle Strategy**: Great Wall Motors is focusing on high-end vehicles, with plans to launch **four new models** under the **Tank** brand next year, indicating a strategic shift towards premium offerings [2][3]. 4. **Market Demand**: The off-road vehicle market in China is experiencing growth, with sales figures for 2023 and 2024 showing an increase from **500,000 to 620,000 units**. The penetration rate for SUVs over **100,000 units** is projected to rise from **4.4% to 7.5%** [4][5]. 5. **Sales Projections**: The **Tank 400** and **Tank 800** models are expected to achieve monthly sales of **3,000 to 5,000 units** each, contributing significantly to overall sales growth [6][7]. 6. **Profitability**: The anticipated sales increase from the new models could lead to an additional **30 billion yuan** in profit for the company [6][7]. 7. **Competitive Landscape**: The market for high-end MPVs is relatively sparse, with few competitors, which positions Great Wall Motors favorably to capture market share with its new offerings [8][9]. 8. **Product Differentiation**: The new models are designed to offer better performance and features compared to existing products, enhancing their competitive edge in the market [4][5]. 9. **Future Model Plans**: Great Wall Motors plans to introduce several new models, including a revamped **Shalomax** and a new **20,000 yuan SUV**, expected to launch in the second half of the year [10][11]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The company is also focusing on improving the **supply chain** and **marketing strategies** to better align with consumer demands and enhance sales performance [8][9]. - The **HIFU platform** will be utilized in new models to improve energy efficiency and reduce costs, indicating a commitment to innovation and sustainability [10][11]. - The overall strategy reflects a shift from a **volume-based** approach to a **value-based** approach, emphasizing quality and profitability over sheer sales numbers [2][3].