尊敬的各位投资者朋友大家上午好我是国缘国际研究部的李明非常感谢大家在百忙之中参加由国缘国际举办的2025年度海外策略报告会请允许我代表国缘国际对大家的参会表示欢迎和感谢我们本次策略会的主题是利好政策持续落地经济底气不断增强过去的一年全球经济经历了诸多的挑战和变革 2025年的经济走势同样会受到诸多因素的影响我们需要更加深入的思考和研究才能应对这一系列的不确定性上周的政治局会议为2025年的政策定下了基调我们非常期待在风险出倾和政策加码的环境中能够和大家一起在港股以及美股市场找到更多的投资机会 我们本次策略会将持续17到19日三天研究员将围绕宏观策略和行业研究两大主线展开讨论今天我们将要讨论的内容是2025年的海外投资策略以及消费行业的看法 18日也就是明天的同样时间我们将讨论的行业是汽车、消费电子、互联网以及文娱行业那周四的同样时间我们将讨论的行业是医药生物行业城市燃气行业以及光伏玻璃行业此外我们的分析师还将和大家聊聊对中资美元债的看法那在会议开始前我会按照惯例播放一下免责声明 本直播内容仅供阁下参考未经国缘国际事先同意本次直播的视频音频及纪要不得基于任何目的被全部或部分的复制传播或发布国缘国际不对任何第三方 ...

各位领导 各位金莲创的新老朋友们 大家下午好我是金莲创的燃料油分析师于小今天很高兴有这个机会和大家分享一下这个话题新能源悄然发展 传统传染供需格局变化的情况 我们今天的分享大致分为三个部分第一部分是航运减排是在地形清洁能源多元化发展第二部分我们看一下在新能源发展的背景下传统的燃油供需基本面发生了哪些变化第三部分我们对未来的趋势简单做一个研判首先我们看一下第一部分清洁能源的多元化发展 那近几年可以说各种的行业政策行业监管是越来的越多也越来的越严格像2020年的9月份中国在第75届联合国大会上就提出了到2030年前实现碳达峰2060年前实现碳中和的这样一个双产的目标2023年的7月份国际海事组织也是决定要加快温室气体减排的步伐 到2030年温室气体相较2008年要减排20%这么一个水平到2040年温室气体的排放相比2008年要减排70%2050年的前后要实现一个净零排放这样的一个目标 另外从2024年也就是今年的1月1号开始欧盟的碳排放交易体系也将航运业纳入到了一个监管的范围要求所有进出欧盟以及欧洲经济区港口的5000总吨以上的船舶要收集并报告其二氧化碳排放的数据并且要求航运公司要为 这个碳排放的行为进行买单具体 ...

各位尊敬的投资者大家好,我是深爱红元的互联网常委温诗玲体现。今天跟我一起来分享观点的还有我们团队的同事张启元。我们今天分享的这个重点是AI的应用里面比较重要的一个领域就是AI玩具,就是兼具教育和陪伴价值的这样一个端测AI的一个场景。另外就是字节AI的一个权债的布局以及带来的字节AI链的一个投资机会。 尤其是11月份以来非常高频的专题电话会议包括专题的AI的报告以及电话会议一起来分享AI在二级市场的投资机会我们在前期已经重点的分享过一个是AI应用的深度报告这个是2024年年度的深度报告还有包括AI短剧、AI 3D包括潮玩股资经济基本上我看每次参会的人数以及报告的阅读量应该都还是影响 那我们今天重点来讨论就是行业里面比较重要的一个场景就是AI玩具还有我们觉得整个2025年这个行业最大的催化就是自己的跳动它去布局AI使得整个人工智能行业在国内从预期走向现实的这个关键 那我们今天就是从几个方面来展开吧首先是我们先分享一下这个AI玩具这个行业那我们在讲这个行业之前其实也是这个场景也是市场非常关注的比较有意思主要还是因为是大家比较直观上能够感觉到它提供了情绪价值 然后用户付费意愿相对高的一个行业而且从端测AI的一个角度来 ...

Key Points Industry Overview 1. **Industry Stage**: The smart glasses industry is entering a rapid growth phase post规模化 commercial validation. [1] 2. **Driving Factors**: - Emergence of AI, enabling voice command execution. - Successful large-scale commercialization in overseas markets, e.g., Ray-Ban Meta with over one million units sold. - Intensive product launches in November, indicating industry growth. [2] 3. **Technology Trends**: - AI integration leading to visual interaction, opening new service and information access points. - Focus on lightweight products with optimized battery life, cost, and weight. [3] 4. **Market Forecast**: - By 2035, the penetration rate could reach 70% with a total sales volume of 1.4 billion units. [4] Company Analysis 5. **Recommended Investment**:明月晶片, a chip brand company with market trial experience on Xiaomi's platform. [4] 6. **Doctor Glasses**: Focus on 3G stores and online channels, with potential for growth through traditional optical channels. [5] Industry History and Development 7. **Early Exploration**: From 1999 to 2001, early exploration and technology conception. [5] 8. **Marketization Attempts**: 2001 to 2021, with marketization attempts and technological progress. [6] 9. **Commercialization**: 2021 onwards, with gradual integration into consumer markets and expansion into medical, education, and industrial sectors. [9] Technology Routes 10. **AI and AR**: AI glasses overlay virtual content on the real world, providing additional information. [10] 11. **VR**: Fully immersive virtual environments, emphasizing immersion and isolation from the real world. [11] 12. **AI Glasses vs. VR**: AI glasses lack visual interaction but offer voice, photography, and AI model-based interaction. [12] 13. **Future Trend**: AI integration with AR as the ultimate form of smart glasses. [13] Key Players 14. **Large Companies**: Focus on hardware definition, system, and hardware ecosystem. [15] 15. **Smart Hardware Manufacturers**: Leverage mobile app ecosystem and hardware advantages. [15] 16. **Tech Startups**: Focus on head-mounted devices and wearable technology. [15] 17. **Traditional Optical Channel Companies**: Advantage in channel alignment with traditional optical consumers. [15] Product Analysis 18. **Ray-Ban Meta**: Success factors include industrial design, market positioning, and brand value. [16] 19. **Product Development**: Focus on basic functions, battery life, and software-hardware integration. [18] Conclusion 20. **Recommendation**:明月晶片, leveraging traditional optical channels for market expansion. [19]

各位投资人大家早上好我是时尚广播詹璐雨今早和我的同事邹国强一起为大家更新关于户外行业的新的观点首先大家都知道其实最近这几年运动户外一直是品牌服饰投资的一个主线但是因为在最近这几年运动细分化的这样的一个需求的浪潮下我们会看到其实在运动里面一些小众的 专业的运动品位它会更加受到消费者的欢迎尤其是关于户外这样一个赛道虽然可能户外整体的市场在整个的运动协服里面占比还不算非常高但是它现在是整体来说增速最快的一个赛道我们会看到如果用欧瑞的数据来说就是24年到28年的赛道的负荷增速 在服装和鞋子里面会分别达到12.4%和13.4%而与此同时我们整体鞋服的这个消费的增速预计大概只有3.5左右那同时呢如果我们是去看这个在户外这个赛道里面跟品位来看啊其实呢 这两年鞋服类它比装备类的增速表现会稍微更好一些这个主要是因为户外的鞋服类它其实适配的生活场景很多除了专业运动之外其实都市生活城市户外也是可以去适配的因此我们会看到它的增速会明显的比装备要更快一些 那如果以这个电商的数据来看啊在2024年的1到11月我们会看到这个天猫京东和抖音的这三大平台啊在户外这个服饰类的成交的增速啊累计呢其实是有达到一个大概36%左右的 在户外经济活的同时 ...

Company and Industry Summary Company Overview - The company reported a revenue of 5.74 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, with the revenue growth rate slowing primarily due to delayed signing schedules [1] - The cloud service business achieved a revenue of 4.29 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.6%, with subscription revenue increasing by 27.8% [1] - The core product BIP generated a revenue of 1.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.0% [1] - As of the end of the reporting period, the company's subscription-related contract liabilities amounted to 2 billion yuan, a 31.7% increase compared to the end of the previous year's third quarter, accounting for 70.8% of total contract liabilities [1] - The total number of paid cloud service customers reached 833,400, with 118,400 new paid customers added [1] - The net loss attributable to shareholders was 1.46 billion yuan, an increase of 420 million yuan year-on-year, while the net loss after deducting non-recurring items was 1.48 billion yuan, an increase of 350 million yuan year-on-year, mainly due to the slowdown in revenue growth [1] Industry Insights - In the third quarter of 2024, the company focused on large enterprise customer business, implementing an industry-specific operational strategy, with business organization optimization and team integration nearly completed [2] - The company launched the BIP Super Version, providing a one-stop public cloud solution for large enterprises, and successfully signed contracts with several major state-owned enterprises and industry leaders, including China Yongan, China CRRC, and others [2] - A total of 241 industry solutions were released during the reporting period, with one new contract signed with a first-level state-owned enterprise, bringing the cumulative total to 40 [2] - For medium-sized enterprise customers, the subscription business grew rapidly, with subscription revenue increasing by 61.8% year-on-year, and the core product's renewal rate reached 90.3% [2] Small and Micro Enterprises - The company focused on small and micro enterprises in the fields of digital finance and digital commerce, achieving a revenue of 670 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.8%, with cloud subscription revenue of 480 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.5% [3] - After excluding the impact of the sale of non-listed equity and fair value changes, the scale net loss decreased by 80.8% compared to the previous year [3] - The cloud service business added 107,000 new paid enterprise users, bringing the total to 740,000 [3] Government and Public Sector - Revenue from government and other public organizations reached 560 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.0%, with a subsidiary improving operations and controlling costs, resulting in a 15.1% revenue increase [3] - The scale net loss decreased by 40 million yuan year-on-year [3] Product Development and Global Strategy - The company launched the Multi-Dimensional Engine, capable of running over one million calculation rules per minute, and released the Yang GPT 2.0 enterprise service model [4] - The company is advancing its Globalization 2.0 strategy, establishing a subsidiary in Japan and expanding market coverage in the Americas, Europe, and the Middle East [4] - New contracts were signed with several Chinese enterprises going abroad and local overseas companies [4] - The company developed 38 upgraded versions of the BIP and native products based on low-code platforms in collaboration with ISV partners [4]

大家好我是广发场面互联网分析师那今天场面早八点主要是给大家以这个卡尤华力布鲁克等公司的视角去拆解一下IP的商业化那最近呢其实股资经济比较的火热股资经济火热的背后我们认为 本质还是消费者对于IP的追捧以及对于喜爱的这个IP的高消费的意愿那不论下游是这个卡牌也好盲盒也好还是这种古迹店也好IP的数量和质量都是关键后续的这个公司的收入的持续增长也主要是依靠能够持续的去先进优质的IP和相应产品的研发和推出以及这个运营能力和供应链的能力 以卡邮为例看卡邮的话是目前国内集会式卡牌领域的龙头手里主要有像奥特曼和小马宝丽这些全球头目的IP那公司的话目前已经形成了从IP采购到IP开发再到IP运营的这个IP商业化的全链路的布局24年之前的话公司的这个收入和利润主要是来源于奥特曼的这个卡牌销售24年的时候的话小马宝丽就接棒奥特曼成为了收入的主要的来源之一 华丽的话主要都是经营游戏游戏设备的销售和这个卡片机的运营这几年卡片机业务也逐渐成为了收入的主要来源之一目前来看的话宝可梦IP预计贡献公司卡片机业务30%左右的收入那奥特曼系列的产品预计贡献收入是30%左右剩下的卡片机的收入主要就来源于其他的IP和类似像三国这些字眼IP 而布鲁克的话 ...

好的各位在线的投资者大家下午好下面我来给大家汇报一下我们医药行业2025年年度策略报告我们年度策略报告的主题就是从支付来源探寻医疗行业新的增量基于此我们建议关注创新出海设备更新与消费复苏四条主线因为从过往复盘来看从21年中医药板块高点至今医药板块表现是相对交叉的医药板块的估值也在持续的下调 主要受到医保收支控费导致的繁复然后基金财等一系列的事情还有就是中美关系地方财政的资金受限然后就是一二级的投融资趋冷 加上疫情之后医院端的自有资金也有点受到限制等各种因素今年大家对于支付单的来源尤为担心对医疗板块的一个估值也是持续的受到了一个压制我们认为站在目前的节点这这几方面的因素的话目前已经到了一个最差的一个阶段从明年来看的话相关的一些因素有望得到一些反弹 为医药板块提供一些新的增量展望明年我们也是比较看好行业的一个发展下面先进入主要的内容我们首先先复盘一下医药板块的一个基本情况医药板块从今年年初截至今年11月末的话基本上是跑出大盘的 然后整体的一个就是排位的话在行业里面也是比较靠后的然后基因板块的占比目前也处于一个行业的一个低位水平从基板块来看的话也仅有化学之际它的一个增长相对来说会好一些然后像生物制品医疗服务医疗器械 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference discusses the retail and social service industry outlook for 2025, indicating significant opportunities in these sectors [1] - The retail industry index has recently increased by approximately 67%, which is not an unusual occurrence given historical trends over the past decade [1] Core Insights and Arguments - The retail companies possess substantial asset values, which is a key factor in their potential for value reset [2][3] - Historical trends show that significant price increases in retail stocks often correlate with asset value resets, as seen in past market cycles [4][5] - The concept of "replacement cost" is highlighted, suggesting that if the cost to replace assets exceeds their fair value, the fair value is deemed too low [3] - The discussion includes the impact of state-owned enterprise (SOE) reforms on retail companies, which can enhance their operational vitality and consensus in the market [6][14] - The "first launch economy" is introduced, emphasizing the importance of new products and services in driving consumer demand from a supply-side perspective [7][8] Key Trends and Future Directions - The need for ongoing consumer stimulation through policy measures is emphasized, with expectations for various initiatives to support consumption in 2025 [8][11] - Retail stocks are characterized by low price-to-book (PB) ratios, indicating potential for value re-evaluation [9][12] - Companies with PB ratios below one are identified as having significant revaluation potential, with examples including major retail groups [12][13] - The importance of SOE reforms as a catalyst for performance improvement is reiterated, with specific companies mentioned as beneficiaries of such reforms [14][20] Investment Opportunities - The conference identifies three main investment directions: 1. Companies with performance or asset release potential 2. Companies that can generate consensus, particularly through top-down strategic initiatives 3. Special consumer categories such as gold, jewelry, and education, which have shown resilience and growth potential [15][23] - The potential for "consumption going abroad" is highlighted as a strategic focus, with examples of companies successfully expanding their market presence internationally [19][20] Conclusion - The retail and social service sectors are expected to present numerous investment opportunities in 2025, driven by asset value recognition and supportive policy measures [24] - The conference encourages ongoing engagement and dialogue among investors to explore these opportunities further [26]

党招商证券的专业投资机构客户或受邀客户会议嘉宾发言内容仅代表其个人观点所有信息或观点不构成投资建议未经招商证券事先书面许可任何机构或个人原先录音制作纪要转发转载传播复制编辑修改等这些违反上述情形的我们将保留一切法律权利感谢您的理解和支持谢谢 各位投资者大家晚上好我是招商宏观研究员张一平也欢迎大家参加我们每月一度的消费新观察和联合的电话会议今天呢我们还是邀请到了宏观实影厅房家电商社和医药组的同事跟大家分享一下我们的最新观点那首先呢就由我跟各位领导汇报一下对于今天公布的这个一些 11月的这个社林啊这个当月同比也好环比增税啊都比十月份多少弱一些的尤其是当月同比啊这个回落了一个多百分点但我们认为说十月份的这个数据的回落呢本来还是有一些很特殊的情况第一呢就是当月同比啊它这个基数还是比较高的去年十月份社林的当月同比是8%是去年全年最高的一个月 所以可能基础效应对于这个今年十一月这个当月同期呢有一定的影响第二呢就是现在来看啊最近这几年双十一的这个电商促销提前这个提供的时间越来越早所以可能有一部分这个这个消费的需求啊在十月份就已经透支了啊所以这个时候呢可能对于十一月份的整个的这个消费呢还是有一定的影响那这时候我想说第一 从第 ...