机构：海通国际 研究员：肖韦俐/闻宏伟 现代牧业的公司数据亦可验证，虽然24年原奶价格同比下降10.4%至3.61元/公斤，但跌幅呈现收窄态 势，24H1快速下行至3.66元/公斤，但我们测算24H2售价约3.56元/公斤，环比跌幅仅低个位数。 奶价下行最快的时期已经过去，牛群供给持续减少，目前行业已现周期底部特征。 牛只持续淘汰，进程符合预期。根据农业部监测显示，目前每月牛群以约4万头的速度减少，今年1、2 月份环比下降分别为3.3万和4.5万头，3、4月份稳定。我们预计5、6月份可能环比略加速淘汰，假设速 度维持，今年年底牛群数量预计在580 - 590万头。目前中小牧场加速退出、国内外价差收窄、饲料价格 仍有压力，我们认为随着供给淘汰，奶价拐点将至，预计在今年三四季度看到奶价止跌反弹。公司作为 行业龙头有望优先受益。 公司成本管控成效显著，展现行业领先降本能力。现代牧业公司24年公斤奶成本降至2.53元，同比下降 13.4%，其中公斤奶饲料成本优化尤为突出，且呈现逐季改善趋势，同比下降16.7%至1.95元/公斤。据 我们测算，24H2公斤奶饲料环比再降约6.9%至1.88元/公斤，其他成本稳定在0.5 ...

Core Viewpoint - Poly Real Estate serves as an important platform for Poly Group's real estate business and capital markets, with Poly Group holding a total of 48.09% of the company's shares, providing strong financing support and quality asset injection for rapid development [1] Sales Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a sales amount of 54.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.1%, ranking 17th in the industry and entering the TOP20 for the first time, with 85% of sales coming from first- and second-tier cities [2] - The sales target for 2025 is set at 50 billion yuan [2] Land Acquisition - From 2010 to present, the company has established a presence in 31 cities, acquiring a total of 165 projects, with a land acquisition amount of 19.95 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 39.3% year-on-year [2] - The average land price increased to 20,700 yuan per square meter, up 14.7% year-on-year, with all acquired land in 2024 and early 2025 located in first- and second-tier cities [2] Land Reserves - By the end of 2024, the company had a total land reserve of 13.16 million square meters, with an equity ratio of 70% and an average land cost of 11,000 yuan per square meter [2] Property Management - Poly Property Management Group operates various types of properties, managing 288 projects with a total area of 52.74 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 3.9% [3] - The property management segment generated revenue of 1.206 billion yuan in 2024, remaining flat year-on-year [3] Financial Performance - In 2024, total revenue was 40.21 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.9%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 180 million yuan, down 87.3% year-on-year [4] - The company’s gross profit margin fell to 16.4%, a decrease of 4 percentage points year-on-year [4] - By the end of 2024, the company had interest-bearing liabilities of 70.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.7% year-on-year, with a net debt ratio of 77.2% [4] Investment Outlook - The company is recognized for its strong shareholder backing, operational resilience, and strategic focus on high-quality projects in key markets, particularly in the Yangtze River Delta and Shanghai [5] - Future revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 39 billion, 40.4 billion, and 40.9 billion yuan, with net profits of 180 million, 190 million, and 200 million yuan respectively [5]

Core Viewpoint - InnoCare (02577.HK) shares rose nearly 15% as the company engages in the sales of gallium nitride power semiconductor products, with reports indicating that Nexperia's collaboration with NVIDIA will play a crucial role in gallium nitride and silicon carbide technologies [1] Company Summary - InnoCare is involved in the sales of gallium nitride power semiconductor products [1] - The company's stock experienced a significant increase of nearly 15% [1] Industry Summary - The collaboration between Nexperia and NVIDIA is expected to enhance the development of gallium nitride and silicon carbide technologies, which are critical for the semiconductor industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - After three submissions for an IPO, Shouhui Group Limited, a personal insurance intermediary service provider, has successfully passed the listing hearing at the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, marking a significant step towards entering the capital market [1] Company Overview - Established in 2015, Shouhui Group has built a substantial business footprint in the digital personal insurance transaction and service sector over ten years, leveraging three major platforms: Xiaoyusan, Kachabao, and Niubao100 to create a diversified distribution channel matrix [2] Financial Performance - Shouhui Group's revenue experienced fluctuations, rising from 806 million RMB in 2022 to 1.634 billion RMB in 2023, before declining to 1.387 billion RMB in 2024. The net profit shifted from a profit of 131 million RMB in 2022 to consecutive losses in the following two years [6][8] - The company's revenue structure shows a heavy reliance on long-term life insurance, which accounted for 59.4% of total revenue in 2023, but dropped to 33.8% in 2024 due to a significant decrease in commission rates [8][9] Market Position - In 2023, Shouhui Group held a 7.3% market share in China's online insurance intermediary sector, ranking second in terms of total premium for long-term personal insurance [4] - The company faces intense competition, with the leading player holding a 45.5% market share, highlighting the challenges in customer acquisition and resource integration [6] Challenges - The company has faced multiple challenges, including increased customer acquisition costs due to market saturation and regulatory changes impacting commission structures, leading to a decline in overall revenue [10][12] - Sales and marketing expenses rose from 98 million RMB in 2022 to 136 million RMB in 2024, reflecting the competitive pressures in the industry [10][11] Growth Potential - Despite challenges, Shouhui Group has a solid customer base, with over 1.6 million policyholders and 2.4 million insured individuals by 2024. The company aims to enhance its competitive edge through product customization and brand development [12][14] - The online insurance intermediary market in China is expected to continue expanding, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 32.3% from 2024 to 2028, indicating significant growth opportunities for Shouhui Group [14][15]

2021年中国汽车市场整体仍处于调整阶段，中汽协预期全年汽车产销量将略高于去年同期水平。官方数据显示，1-11 月国内汽车产销量分别为2317.2万辆和2348.9万辆，同比增长3.5%、4.5%，与2019年同期相比，产销增幅分别为0.5% 和1.5%，全年有望实现恢复性正增长。 波动变化中，"分化"一词成为关键。一方面乘用车表现好于商用车。今年1-11月，乘用车产销同比增长6.9%和7.1%， 商用车分别下降9.1%和5.3%。另一方面，在乘用车内部，豪华车继续独领风骚。1-11月，国内生产的豪华车销量达到 311.2万辆，同比增长19.5%，高于乘用车累计增速12.4个百分点，对汽车消费市场起到强势推动作用。 （来源：格隆汇） 在消费升级和汽车更新换代需求驱动下，豪华车的崛起早有端倪。2018-2020年，乘用车整体销量持续负增长的同 时，豪华汽车稳定地走出独立增长行情，显示出强大的业务韧性，豪华车经销商的生意羡煞同行，港股汽车经销商板 块年内涨幅超过13%，远远跑赢大盘。 但观察板块内个股情况，并非所有豪华车经销商都享受到了这波红利。在豪华经销商内部，其实也已经呈现出分化趋 势。产品组合更优，以及通过 ...

2022年3月22日盘后，港股主板豪华车经销商——和谐汽车(3836.HK)发布截至2021年12月31日的年度业 绩。 财报显示，2021年，和谐汽车实现总收入179.81亿元人民币（单位下同），同比增长21.9%；主营业务 净利润（扣除非经常性损益项目后）7.57亿元，同比大幅增长49.6%。此外，公司拟宣派末期股息0.21 港元/股，较去年同期的7.9港仙增长165.8%，对应2021年归母净利润的年度分红率高达40%。 2021年，和谐汽车实现总收入179.81亿元人民币（单位下同），同比增长21.9%；其中，汽车销售业务 实现营业收入156.1亿元，同比增长21%，占比86.8%；售后服务业务实现收入23.26亿元，同比增长 27.95%，占比12.9%。 在规模稳步增长的同时，和谐汽车的盈利能力也得以大幅提升。财报显示，期内公司整体毛利率 9.7%，较2020年提升0.9个百分点。其中汽车销售毛利率4.3%，较2020年上升了0.8个百分点；售后服务 业务毛利率为44.8%，与2020年持平。 在芯片短缺的影响下，汽车供应收紧，和谐汽车库存水平随之降低，2021年公司平均库存周转25天，相 较于2 ...

过去两年是公认的汽车经销商的好时候，涨价周期推动经销商新车端利润提升，豪华车伴随消费升级节 奏表现更远强于市场，即使行业进入补库存阶段，豪华车的品牌护城河依旧强大，受全球供应链不畅等 影响，排队加价等车的情况并不鲜见，这也令豪华车经销商具备更强的增长稳定性。考虑当前国内豪华 车渗透率仍具备较大的上升空间，各大豪车品牌自身加速的电动化趋势，以及存量基盘支撑下的汽车后 产业链机会等，预期未来头部豪华汽车经销商将继续保持可观增长。 7月29日，开源证券研究所联合格隆汇旗下汇路演APP，邀请分析师、基金经理以及上市公司等举办 的"2022夏季港股投资论坛"上，一家品牌组合强势、电动化布局多元的头部豪华经销商——和谐汽车， 就受到不少投资者关注。 一、聚焦优势品牌和区域，持续把握豪华汽车渗透率提升机会 作为国内排在第一梯队的豪华汽车品牌经销商，和谐汽车共计拥有14个品牌，包括宝马、雷克萨斯、沃 尔沃、林肯、捷豹、奥迪等9款豪华品牌，以及超豪华品牌宾利、劳斯莱斯、法拉利、兰博基尼和玛莎 拉蒂。 高效的销售服务网络下，公司已分别成为宝马、宾利两大品牌在中国中西部地区、中部地区规模最大的 经销商，分品牌的整体销量表现均优于市 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company experienced a decline in net profit in Q1 2025, but long-term value remains intact, with projected net profits increasing significantly from 2025 to 2027 [1][3]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 5.85 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.7%, while net profit was 200 million yuan, a decrease of 30% year-on-year [1]. - Urea revenue was 1.54 billion yuan with a sales volume of 965,000 tons, maintaining year-on-year levels, but the price decreased by 23% to 1,592 yuan/ton, leading to a gross margin drop of 13 percentage points to 18% [2]. - Compound fertilizer revenue reached 1.56 billion yuan with a sales volume of 600,000 tons, a 14% increase year-on-year, but the price fell by 4% to 2,599 yuan/ton, maintaining a gross margin of 14% [2]. - Methanol revenue was 800 million yuan with a sales volume of 354,000 tons, a 22% increase year-on-year, with the price rising by 4% to 2,270 yuan/ton and a gross margin increase of 4 percentage points to 10% [2]. - Melamine revenue was 160 million yuan with a sales volume of 32,000 tons, a 7% decrease year-on-year, with the price down by 18% to 5,106 yuan/ton and a gross margin drop of 21 percentage points to 22% [2]. - DMF revenue was 290 million yuan with a sales volume of 78,000 tons, a 9% increase year-on-year, with the price decreasing by 9% to 3,668 yuan/ton and a gross margin increase of 4 percentage points to 16% [2]. Industry Outlook - The demand for urea in China is projected to be 69 million tons in 2025, with agricultural demand at 43 million tons (3% growth) and industrial demand at 22 million tons (5% growth), while export volume is expected to reach 4 million tons, a significant increase of 1,438% [3]. - Changes in export policy from comprehensive restrictions to structured regulation are anticipated to alleviate domestic urea supply surplus, with total export quotas not exceeding 4.25 million tons in 2023 and a defined export window from May to September [3]. Investment Recommendation - The company maintains a target price of 6.5 HKD, representing a 49% upside potential based on a projected P/E ratio of 7.4 times for 2025, with expected net profits of 1 billion, 1.76 billion, and 2.6 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [1][3].

Core Viewpoint - Leap Motor has reported its best-ever first-quarter performance, with significant growth in sales and revenue, indicating strong market demand and effective operational strategies [2][4]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Leap Motor achieved a sales volume of 87,600 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 162% [4]. - Revenue for the same period exceeded 10 billion RMB, reaching 10.02 billion RMB, a year-on-year growth of 187.1% [2][4]. - The gross margin reached a historical high of 14.9%, compared to -1.4% in Q1 2024 and 13.3% in Q4 2024, reflecting improvements in scale effects, cost management, and product mix optimization [4][5]. Market Expansion - Leap Motor has expanded its presence to 23 international markets, including Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Asia-Pacific, and South America, with over 550 sales and service outlets [2][7]. - The company aims to accelerate its global expansion, with plans to introduce three new models (B10, B01, B05) in 2025 to cater to diverse global customer needs [3][7]. Product Performance - The C series has been a standout performer, accounting for 77.5% of total sales in Q1 2025, with 67,800 units delivered [5]. - The B10 model, launched in April 2025, has already seen over 10,000 units delivered by the announcement date [5]. Strategic Partnerships and Production - Leap Motor is collaborating with Stellantis Group to localize production in Malaysia, with plans to start producing the C10 model by the end of 2025 and to establish manufacturing in Europe by 2026 [7][8]. - The company is focusing on maintaining a balance between market penetration and profitability, with an emphasis on long-term growth rather than immediate high profits [8]. Sales and Distribution Strategy - The company aims to exceed 1,000 sales outlets by the end of 2025, having nearly 800 currently, and is implementing a pixel model and online systems to enhance sales capabilities [9]. - Leap Motor prioritizes dealer profitability in its channel management strategy, ensuring a competitive edge in the industry [9].

Group 1 - Zijin Mining (02899) has shown strong performance recently, with a stock price increase of 7.58% to HKD 18.52, indicating a potential upward trend [1] - The stock has broken through the Bollinger Bands upper limit at HKD 17.97, reaching an intraday high of HKD 18.54, suggesting a bullish momentum [1] - Technical indicators are signaling a strong buy, with 19 buy signals, 7 neutral signals, and 2 sell signals, indicating a robust bullish sentiment [3] Group 2 - Current stock price is hovering around HKD 18.24, with resistance levels at HKD 18.6 and HKD 19.1, while support levels are at HKD 17.5 and HKD 17.3 [4] - If trading volume maintains around HKD 788 million, the probability of a short-term price increase is estimated at 53% [4] - Recent performance of warrants linked to the stock has shown significant gains, with HSBC and UBS call warrants rising by 34% and 33% respectively, reflecting the high leverage potential of these products [6] Group 3 - Investors are advised to consider call warrants with a strike price of HKD 19.01, which have a leverage of approximately 5.1 times, suitable for capturing upward movements after breaking resistance [9] - For those concerned about potential technical pullbacks, UBS bear warrants with a redemption price of HKD 21 provide a safety margin, with a leverage of 5.5 times [9] - The recent rebound in gold prices and positive earnings expectations have benefited Zijin Mining, although overbought signals are emerging, indicating a possible price correction before further gains [9]