行 业 及 产 业 纺织服饰 2025 年 08 月 24 日 中报密集披露，运动板块业绩催化下表现活跃 看好 ——纺织服装行业周报 20250824 相关研究 《361 度中报收入双位数增长，关注运动 板块业绩催化——纺织服装行业周报 20250817》 2025/08/17 《国际品牌供应链下单偏谨慎，订单趋势 仍须观察——纺织服装行业周报 20250810》 2025/08/10 证券分析师 王立平 A0230511040052 wanglp@swsresearch.com 求佳峰 A0230523060001 qiujf@swsresearch.com 刘佩 A0230523070002 liupei@swsresearch.com 联系人 刘佩 (8621)23297818× liupei@swsresearch.com 本期投资提示： 证 券 研 究 报 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 告 ⚫ 本周纺织服饰板块表现弱于市场。8 月 15~22 日，SW 纺织服饰指数上涨 2.5%，跑输 SW 全 A 指 ...

Core Viewpoint - Company is initiating coverage on Crystal International with a "Buy" rating and a target price of HKD 7.38, corresponding to a 12x PE for 2025 [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Crystal International is a leading global garment manufacturer with over 20 factories in Vietnam, China, Cambodia, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka, benefiting from ample overseas production capacity [1] - The company has a long-standing partnership with Uniqlo, spanning nearly 30 years, which supports stable revenue growth [3] Group 2: Market Position and Strategy - The global sportswear market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 6.3% from 2024 to 2028, reaching USD 313.1 billion, indicating a favorable environment for the company [2] - Crystal International has entered the sportswear segment through the acquisition of Vista in 2016 and is now supplying major clients like Adidas, Nike, and Lululemon, which enhances its market share [2] Group 3: Financial Performance and Projections - The company's revenue share from sportswear is expected to increase from 9.6% in 2018 to 22.5% in 2024, with gross margin improving from 18.6% to 19.7% during the same period [3] - The company plans to increase its workforce by 10,000 to a total of 75,000 employees, maintaining a high productivity level of USD 33,000 per employee [3] Group 4: Competitive Advantage - Crystal International's "Co-creation" model enhances its ODM capabilities, allowing for deeper involvement in client design processes, which strengthens customer loyalty and market share [2] - The company benefits from a global production footprint and a high percentage of overseas employees (84%), positioning it well to capitalize on the trend of concentrated sportswear suppliers [3] Group 5: Valuation and Earnings Forecast - The company forecasts net profits to grow by 15.7%, 15.1%, and 11.6% from 2025 to 2027, reaching USD 230 million, USD 270 million, and USD 300 million respectively [4] - A target price of HKD 7.38 is set based on a 12x PE for 2025, reflecting a slight discount due to the company's later entry into the high-growth segment [4]

Macro and Strategy - The report analyzes the current bull market in the ChiNext index, noting that it has risen by 21.69% year-to-date as of August 18, 2025, with comparisons to previous bull markets in 2015, 2013, and 2020, which had significantly higher gains [8][3] - The report highlights the differences between the bull markets of 2013-2015, characterized by broad-based gains, and the more structural gains seen from 2018-2021, where a lower percentage of stocks saw significant increases [8] Light Industry Manufacturing - The light industry manufacturing weekly report indicates that the price of boxboard and corrugated paper continues to rise, with July furniture retail sales in the U.S. increasing by 5.1% year-on-year [3][10] - Domestic prices for hardwood pulp have risen slightly, while cultural paper and white cardboard prices remain under pressure due to supply and demand dynamics [9][10] - The report notes that China's furniture exports increased by 3.0% year-on-year in July, with expectations for recovery in the export chain due to recent tariff extensions and upcoming U.S. interest rate cuts [10][11] Automotive Industry - The automotive industry report indicates that vehicle production and sales in July 2025 were 2.591 million and 2.593 million units, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 13.3% and 14.7% [13] - The report highlights a strong pre-sale for the new Tank 500 model, indicating robust consumer interest [13] - The report suggests a focus on the performance of the automotive sector's mid-year results, with a notable increase in wholesale vehicle sales in early August [14] Copper Industry - The report on Tongling Nonferrous Metals indicates a 34% year-on-year decline in net profit for the first half of 2025, despite a revenue increase of 6.4% to 76.1 billion yuan [21][22] - The company has become the largest copper smelting company globally, with a production capacity of 2.2 million tons following the commissioning of a new copper smelting project [22] - The report anticipates a significant increase in copper production capacity with the upcoming commissioning of the Mirador copper mine's second phase [23] Gold Industry - The report on Shanjin International shows a 42.14% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first half of 2025, with net profit rising by 48.43% [24] - The report notes that the company is on track to meet its annual gold production target of at least 8 tons, despite a slight decline in production in the first half [24][25] - The report highlights the potential for future growth through acquisitions and new projects, particularly in Namibia and other regions [25] Electronic and Battery Materials - The report on Shengquan Group indicates a 51.19% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by strong performance in advanced electronic materials and battery materials [31][32] - The company has expanded its market share in synthetic resin and advanced materials, with significant growth in sales volume [32][33] - The report emphasizes the company's ongoing development of new products and applications in the biomass sector, with new projects expected to launch in the near future [34] Medical Aesthetics - The report on Aimeike shows a 21.59% year-on-year decline in revenue for the first half of 2025, with net profit down by 29.57% [35][36] - The company is facing increased competition in the medical aesthetics market, but it is expanding its product line through acquisitions and new product development [36][37] - The report suggests that while short-term challenges exist, the long-term growth potential remains strong due to increasing consumer demand for medical aesthetics [37] Beverage Industry - The report on Yanghe Distillery indicates a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with a focus on maintaining pricing power and controlling production volume [38]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Consumer Market**, particularly in the **cosmetics**, **sportswear**, and **infant milk formula (IMF)** sectors, analyzing performance across major e-commerce platforms like Tmall, Taobao, and JD. Key Highlights 1. Category Performance - **White Goods**: Grew by **15% year-over-year (yoy)** in July, outperforming other categories. - **RVC/Small Kitchen Appliances**: Recorded growth of **14%** and **10% yoy**, respectively. - **Sports Shoes/Sportswear**: Achieved **11%** and **7% yoy** growth. - **Declines**: Categories such as **IMF, Beer, Pet Products, and Beauty** saw declines, with **Women's Clothing, Condiments, and Dairy** lagging at **15%**, **17%**, and **24% yoy** declines, respectively [1][13][12]. 2. Domestic vs. MNC Brands in Cosmetics - **Local Brands**: Mass/local brands regained market share from premium/MNC brands, reversing trends from the previous period. - **Shanghai Jahwa, Marubi, and KANs** led with growth rates of **58%**, **51%**, and **48% yoy**. - **Giant, Perfect Diary, and Botanee** grew by **24%**, **7%**, and **2%** respectively. - **MNC Brands**: - **LGHH** was the only MNC to show positive growth at **9% yoy**. - **L'Oreal** declined by **2%**, while **Estee Lauder** and **Shiseido** faced declines of **MSD to HSD% yoy**. - **Kose** and **Amore** underperformed with declines of **19%** and **49% yoy** [2][23]. 3. Sportswear Market Insights - Both MNCs and local brands experienced positive online growth in July, attributed to a favorable base. - **Anta** reported improved performance in mid-July, expecting recovery in Q3. - **Xtep** noted retail sales acceleration, while **Li Ning** faced pressure with deeper discounts yoy. - The divergence in brand performance is attributed to product and fashion cycles, with brands executing omni-channel strategies [3]. 4. Infant Milk Formula (IMF) Performance - **Sales Growth**: On Tmall/Taobao, IMF sales grew by **11%** in July, an improvement from **-4%** in June. - **Top Brands**: Local brand **Yili** (including Pro-Kido) showed strong momentum with **33%** growth in July, while **Feihe** slowed to **6%** growth. - Among MNCs, **Biostime, Mead Johnson, and Wyeth** outperformed with growth rates of **48%**, **42%**, and **32%** respectively [17][18]. 5. Brand Performance Summary - **Outperforming Brands**: Included **Herborist, Collgene, Marubi, KANs, HR, Uniqlo, Gree, Ecovacs, Roborock, Fila, Lululemon, and Pop Mart**. - **Underperforming Brands**: Included **Timage, QuadHA, Yili, and Cha cha** [4]. Additional Insights - The report indicates a shift in consumer preferences towards local brands, particularly in the cosmetics sector, as they regain market share from MNCs. - The performance of various categories suggests a mixed recovery in consumer spending, with some sectors experiencing robust growth while others face significant declines. - The analysis highlights the importance of omni-channel strategies in capturing market share and responding to changing consumer behaviors [2][3][23].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is currently in a period of intensive mid-term earnings disclosures, leading to significant stock price fluctuations for several listed companies [1]. Group 1: Tencent Music - Tencent Music's stock surged after its mid-term earnings report, reaching a peak of 104 HKD, marking a maximum increase of over 17% [3]. - For Q2 2025, Tencent Music reported total revenue of 8.44 billion HKD, a year-on-year increase of 17.9%, and an adjusted net profit of 2.64 billion HKD, up 33.0% year-on-year [5]. - The online music service revenue grew by 26.4% to 6.85 billion HKD, driven by deepened collaborations with global record companies and innovative content creation [5]. Group 2: Reading Group - After its earnings announcement, Reading Group's stock rose significantly, with an intraday peak increase of over 19% [6]. - The company reported a revenue of 3.19 billion HKD and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 850 million HKD for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 68.5% [8]. - The growth was attributed to the resilience of its IP ecosystem, with several successful adaptations of its IP into films and series, and a notable increase in revenue from short dramas and IP derivatives [8]. Group 3: Minmetals Resources - Minmetals Resources' stock also saw a rise, with an intraday increase of nearly 14%, reaching a maximum price of 4.8 HKD [8]. - The company reported a net profit of 566 million USD for the first half of 2025, a more than 600% increase compared to 79.5 million USD in the same period of 2024 [10]. - This strong profit growth was primarily due to increased copper production from three mines and rising market prices for copper, gold, silver, and zinc [11]. Group 4: 361 Degrees - In contrast, 361 Degrees experienced a decline in stock price after its earnings report, with a drop of 9.29% [12]. - The company reported a revenue of 5.705 billion HKD for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 11%, and a profit attributable to shareholders of 858 million HKD, up 8.6% [14]. - The growth was driven by strong demand for its products across adult and children's categories, with the children's segment contributing approximately 1.261 billion HKD, representing 22.1% of total revenue [14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the textile and apparel industry, indicating a "Buy" recommendation for specific companies within the sector [2]. Core Insights - The textile and apparel sector outperformed the market, with the SW textile and apparel index rising by 4.2% from August 4 to August 8, surpassing the SW All A index by 2.3 percentage points [3]. - Recent industry data shows that the retail sales of clothing, shoes, and textiles totaled 742.6 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.1% [6]. - Exports of textiles and apparel reached 143.98 billion USD in the first half of 2025, a slight increase of 0.8% year-on-year, although June saw a decline in textile and apparel exports [29]. - Cotton prices have shown mixed trends, with domestic cotton prices decreasing by 0.4% while international cotton prices fell by 1.1% [31][33]. Summary by Sections Textile Sector - Companies like Huayi and Jiansheng reported profit declines in Q2 2025, indicating cautious ordering behavior in the brand supply chain. Huayi's profit margin decreased due to new factory efficiencies taking time to stabilize and weak retail performance from some old clients [6]. - Despite fluctuations in downstream orders, companies remain optimistic about future demand, particularly from new clients like Adidas, which is expected to support overall revenue growth [6]. - The report highlights the potential for recovery in quality textile manufacturing, especially with the ongoing U.S.-China tariff negotiations and domestic consumption improvements [7][8]. Apparel Sector - Adidas reported a 2.2% year-on-year revenue increase in Q2 2025, with significant growth in the Greater China region and a notable rise in net profit [9][10]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of high-end and cost-effective brands, with brands like Anta and Li Ning showing stable performance despite a challenging retail environment [11]. - The focus on domestic consumption recovery is crucial, with various local governments implementing measures to stimulate consumer spending [11]. Key Company Updates - Huayi Group's H1 2025 revenue was 12.66 billion yuan, a 10.4% increase, but net profit fell by 11.4% [21]. - Jiansheng Group's H1 2025 revenue was 1.17 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.2%, with a net profit decline of 14.5% [22]. Market Trends - The report notes a cautious but optimistic outlook for the textile and apparel industry, driven by potential recovery in domestic demand and strategic positioning of leading companies [6][7].

Core Insights - The sports industry in Sichuan is experiencing significant growth, with the total scale reaching approximately 500 billion yuan and over 1,700 manufacturing and related enterprises [5][6] - The 2023 national sports industry scale is nearly 3.7 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 11.3%, indicating a robust market demand [5] - The event in Chengdu serves as a platform for local sports equipment manufacturers to connect and explore new business opportunities, particularly in the booming badminton market [4][5] Industry Overview - The Sichuan sports manufacturing industry is thriving, with a focus on expanding local markets due to increasing consumer demand for sports products [5][6] - Major events like the Universiade and World University Games are driving the growth of sports consumption and the overall sports economy in Sichuan [5][6] Company Activities - Sichuan Handa Sports Goods Co., Ltd. is seeking partnerships to enter the badminton market, responding to rising customer demand [4][5] - Weimin Sports is expanding its retail presence in Sichuan, aiming for coverage in all 21 cities and states, and is shifting focus to consumer-oriented products [5][6] - Hongguan Carbon Fiber Technology Co., Ltd. has successfully launched lightweight carbon fiber pickleball paddles, selling 50,000 units last year, showcasing innovation in product development [6] Product Development - Companies are focusing on developing new products, such as the cost-effective badminton racket stringing machine by Nanji Feng, which has gained traction in the market [6][7] - The emphasis is on creating high-quality, locally produced sports products to meet the growing demand and enhance market competitiveness [6][7] Government Support - The Sichuan government is actively promoting high-quality development in the sports manufacturing sector, aiming to support digital transformation and smart upgrades in production [7] - Policies are being implemented to facilitate online and offline sales connections, helping companies secure orders and expand their market reach [7]

Core Insights - Under Armour's stock dropped over 16% in pre-market trading following disappointing financial results [1] Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings per share for the first fiscal quarter were $0.020, up from $0.010 in the same period last year, but below the forecast of $0.03 [1] - The company reported a net loss per share of $0.010 for the first fiscal quarter, an improvement from a loss of $0.70 per share year-over-year, but below the expected profit of $0.01 [1] - Net revenue for the first fiscal quarter was $1.13 billion, a decline of 4.2% year-over-year, matching the forecast of $1.13 billion [1] - Adjusted operating income for the first fiscal quarter was $24.4 million, significantly up from $8 million in the same period last year, and above the forecast of $20.7 million [1] - Operating profit for the first fiscal quarter was $3.32 million, a substantial recovery from a loss of $299.7 million year-over-year, and above the expected profit of $6.04 million [1]

8月2日，"苏超"联赛第8轮淮安队与苏州队的对决在淮安主场打响。而赛场之外，随着"苏超"赛事热度 持续攀升，衍生的零售产业链也展现出澎湃活力。在淮安盱眙，苏州客商中首批来盱投资的盱眙天源 服装、天生服装有限公司迎来产销两旺。 盱眙天生服装有限公司厂长姚云山表示，"苏超"作为现在的顶流话题，带动了越来越多的人参与到体 育运动中，有力推动了体育零售产业的蓬勃发展。政府的帮办服务也给了他们更大的信心，未来，企 业将加大研发投入，更加聚焦女性运动、儿童体育、户外休闲等细分赛道，推出更多符合市场需求的 产品。同时不断扩大生产产能，增加产品的市场竞争力和市场份额，推动"盱眙制造"走向全国，为地 方"体育+"产业的绿色发展贡献一份力量。 7月31日上午，盱眙天源服装、天生服装有限公司的生产车间，缝纫机轰鸣声此起彼伏，生产线上工人 们有条不紊地忙着裁剪、车缝、烫整、质检……一批批订单正加紧生产当中。据了解，"苏超"赛事的 火热进行，也带动了相关零售产业链的发展，最近一段时间，两家企业运动服饰订单量持续攀升，较 往年同期有明显增长。 盱眙天源服装有限公司负责人说："受'苏超'影响，运动服饰的订单量比之前多了不少，已经排到了明 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [4][13][15]. Core Views - Yuanyuan Group is the world's largest sports shoe manufacturer, with a diversified brand client portfolio and production bases. The company is expected to achieve sustainable growth in its manufacturing business following the end of the overseas destocking cycle and diversified capacity layout. The retail business is anticipated to grow steadily through vertical market development and new brand contributions. The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are $390 million, $430 million, and $480 million, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 6X, 6X, and 5X, indicating a low valuation level [4][13][20]. Company Overview - Yuanyuan Group, established in 1988, operates in OEM/ODM shoe manufacturing and sports apparel retail. In 2024, the revenue and net profit contributions from manufacturing and retail are expected to be 69%/84% and 31%/16%, respectively, with total revenue of $8.18 billion and net profit of $390 million. The company has established long-term partnerships with international brands such as Nike, Adidas, Asics, and New Balance, with production bases in Vietnam, Indonesia, and China [4][10][20]. Manufacturing Business - The manufacturing segment has a revenue scale superior to comparable companies, but its growth rate has been relatively poor, with a CAGR of -1.3% from 2019 to 2024. However, improvements are expected in 2024 due to normalized orders and capacity expansion in India. The company has room for cost improvement, as its net profit margin remains lower than peers despite recent operational optimizations [11][12][51]. Retail Business - The retail segment shows performance disparities, with 宝胜国际 and 滔搏 facing challenges. In 2024, 宝胜国际's revenue is projected to decline by 8% to $2.845 billion, while its net profit margin is expected to improve slightly to 2.7%. The company is focusing on stabilizing retail discounts and improving profit margins to achieve quality profit growth [11][12][51]. Market Outlook - The sports shoe and apparel market is experiencing high demand, driven by increased awareness of physical fitness and the development of sports initiatives. The industry is characterized by high concentration, with market share gradually shifting towards leading brands. The manufacturing side benefits from high entry barriers, while the retail side is expected to grow steadily through multi-channel operations and brand matrix expansion [12][20][41].