证券研究报告 | 2025年10月10日 纺织服装 10 月投资策略 优于大市 9 月越南纺服出口同比转正，羊毛价格上涨显著 行情回顾：9 月以来 A 股纺服板块走势弱于大盘，其中纺织制造表现优于品 牌服饰，截至 10/9 日，分别+0.1%/-1.6%；港股纺服指数弱于大盘，9 月以 来板块整体下跌。重点关注公司中 9 月以来涨幅领先的包括：新澳股份 (16.9%)/丰泰企业(14.9%)/阿迪达斯(11.6%)/儒鸿(10.8%)/申洲国际 (8.6%)/报喜鸟(7.6%)。 品牌服饰观点：1）社零：8 月服装社零同比增长 3.1%，增速环比提升，较 上月提速 1.3 百分点。9 月今年因较去年缺少中秋假期，同时气温仍然较热， 我们预计 9 月服装销售较 7-8 月有一定压力；去年十一假期受促销费政策带 动基数较高，今年受气温、以及出行客流增加分流影响，预计服饰销售存在 压力。2）电商：8 月电商户外品类增长保持领先，运动服饰/户外服饰/休闲 服饰/家纺/个护分别同比-1%/+22%/ -1%/-7%/-1%。运动服饰中，增速领先 的品牌包括迪桑特(51%)、露露乐蒙(35%)；户外品牌中，凯乐石(113 ...

行情回顾：9 月以来 A 股纺服板块走势弱于大盘，其中纺织制造表现优于品 牌服饰，截至 10/9 日，分别+0.1%/-1.6%；港股纺服指数弱于大盘，9 月以 来板块整体下跌。重点关注公司中 9 月以来涨幅领先的包括：新澳股份 (16.9%)/丰泰企业(14.9%)/阿迪达斯(11.6%)/儒鸿(10.8%)/申洲国际 (8.6%)/报喜鸟(7.6%)。 品牌服饰观点：1）社零：8 月服装社零同比增长 3.1%，增速环比提升，较 上月提速 1.3 百分点。9 月今年因较去年缺少中秋假期，同时气温仍然较热， 我们预计 9 月服装销售较 7-8 月有一定压力；去年十一假期受促销费政策带 动基数较高，今年受气温、以及出行客流增加分流影响，预计服饰销售存在 压力。2）电商：8 月电商户外品类增长保持领先，运动服饰/户外服饰/休闲 服饰/家纺/个护分别同比-1%/+22%/ -1%/-7%/-1%。运动服饰中，增速领先 的品牌包括迪桑特(51%)、露露乐蒙(35%)；户外品牌中，凯乐石(113%)、蕉 下(79%)、可隆(69%)较其他品牌增长强劲；休闲服饰中，江南布衣(65%)保 持快速增长，主要靠京东、天猫平台带 ...

上海全市重点商圈销售额同比增长10.2%，其中，南京东路、南京西路、中山公园等3个商圈销售额分 别增长23.2%、22.7%和29.4%。5个夜间经济人气地标的夜间消费额同比增长15.3%，环比节前一周增长 31.8%。其中，西岸梦中心、吴江路-丰盛里分别增长111.9%和28.0%。5个夜生活好去处夜间消费额同 比增长0.4%，环比节前一周增长19.0%。其中，长宁上生夜未央、静安大悦城（000031）夜食天台分别 增长104.1%和35.4%。 节日期间境外来沪人员消费活跃。离境退税开单数同比增长6倍，销售金额同比增长7.2%。入境人员购 买退税商品品类主要是运动服饰、电子产品和国际品牌。 新京报贝壳财经讯（记者俞金旻）10月9日，贝壳财经记者从上海市商务委了解到，据消费市场大数据 实验室数据，2025年国庆中秋假期（10月1日至10月8日），上海全市线上线下（300959）消费支付金额 796亿元，同比增长3.0%。美团数据显示，上海地区餐饮销售额同比增长7.5%。 ...

Core Insights - Nike Inc (NYSE:NKE) is identified as a trending stock with potential for significant upside, supported by a price target increase from $93 to $100 by JPMorgan's retail analyst Matt Boss [1] - The company is undergoing a strategic shift with a new team focusing on merchandising, inventory, and product development, which had been neglected in recent years [1] - Sands Capital Global Growth Strategy has exited its position in Nike, citing market saturation and operational challenges as reasons for their decision [2] Group 1 - JPMorgan's analyst believes Nike's stock has more upside due to improved company dynamics and a focus on merchandising [1] - The analyst highlights that Nike's margins could lead to earnings power exceeding $4 if revenue growth is sustained [1] - Sands Capital views Nike as a maturing business facing challenges, leading to their decision to sell the stock [2] Group 2 - The shift towards direct sales during the COVID era is noted as a self-inflicted misstep that impacted Nike's wholesale partnerships and product innovation [2] - The company is now attempting to reclaim shelf space that was lost during its previous focus on profitability and online sales [1] - There is a belief that while Nike has potential, other AI stocks may offer better returns with lower risk [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fireworks event involving the outdoor brand "始祖鸟" and artist Cai Guo-Qiang has led to a public relations crisis, significantly impacting the stock price of Anta Sports, which holds a 39.5% stake in the parent company of 始祖鸟 [4][6][8]. Group 1: Incident and Market Reaction - The fireworks show, intended as a promotional event, resulted in a backlash, causing 始祖鸟 and Cai Guo-Qiang to issue apologies that were perceived as insufficient by the public [4][5]. - Following the incident, Anta Sports' stock price opened down 4.6% and experienced a peak decline of 7.28% before closing down 2.22% on September 22, with further declines observed on September 23 [6][7]. Group 2: Anta's Acquisition Strategy - Anta Sports has engaged in aggressive acquisitions over the years, including the notable purchase of Amer Sports in 2019 for €4.6 billion, which has contributed to significant revenue growth from ¥133.5 billion in 2016 to an expected ¥708.3 billion in 2024 [8][14]. - Despite the rapid expansion, the company faces challenges in managing its acquisitions effectively, as evidenced by the recent crisis and the underperformance of many acquired brands compared to the successful integration of FILA [8][16]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Future Strategy - Anta's revenue growth has begun to slow, with a reported revenue of ¥385.4 billion in the first half of the year, a 14.26% increase, but net profit decreased by 8.94% [19][20]. - The company is shifting its strategy from a focus on acquisitions to international expansion, aiming to establish a stronger global presence while addressing the risks associated with past acquisitions [21][22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the textile and apparel industry, particularly highlighting the potential in the sports sector due to recent policy support for sports events [3][10]. Core Insights - The textile and apparel sector underperformed the market, with the SW textile and apparel index declining by 0.3% from September 15 to September 19, 2025, while the SW apparel and home textiles index rose by 0.7% [3][4]. - Recent industry data indicates that from January to August 2025, the total retail sales of clothing, shoes, and textiles reached 940 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.9% [3][21]. - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand recovery as a key investment theme for 2025, with a focus on quality domestic brands that are expected to rebound from current challenges [3][11]. Summary by Sections Textile Sector - Vietnam's textile and footwear exports fell in August, with a decline of 4.8% and 3.9% respectively, attributed to preemptive order completions to avoid tariff increases [9]. - The report suggests focusing on high-quality manufacturers with diversified global production capacities [9]. - The cotton price index in China was reported at 15,200 yuan per ton, down 0.3% week-on-week, while international cotton prices showed slight increases [34]. Apparel Sector - The government has introduced policies to boost service consumption, particularly in sports events, which is expected to enhance the performance of the sports apparel segment [10][11]. - The report highlights the potential for new consumption growth points through the integration of sports events with tourism and local commerce [10][11]. - Retail innovation is accelerating, with brands like Anta and 361 Degrees expanding their store formats to capture new consumer trends [11]. Key Recommendations - The report recommends investing in outdoor sports brands such as Anta, Li Ning, and 361 Degrees, as well as discount retailers like Hailan Home [3][11]. - It also suggests monitoring companies involved in the non-woven fabric supply chain, particularly Nobon and Jeya, which are expected to benefit from market recovery [9].

Market Overview - In August 2025, the domestic retail sales (社零) totaled 3.97 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.4%, slightly below market expectations of 3.82% [6][5] - For the first eight months of 2025, total retail sales reached 32.39 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [6] - The consumer confidence index in July 2025 was reported at 89.0, showing a month-on-month increase of 1.1 [6] Retail Sector Insights - Online retail channels continued to outperform the overall retail market, with physical stores like convenience stores and supermarkets showing stable performance [6] - In August 2025, the year-on-year growth for cosmetics was 5.1%, while gold and silver jewelry saw a significant increase of 16.8% [6] - The sports and entertainment goods sector maintained rapid growth, with a year-on-year increase of 16.9% in August [6] Textile and Apparel Sector - The textile and apparel retail sales in August 2025 showed marginal improvement, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 2.9% for the first eight months [7] - The sports apparel segment experienced a robust growth rate of 20.6% year-on-year for the same period [7] - Major brands like 361 Degrees reported double-digit growth, while other brands like Li Ning and Anta showed low to mid-single-digit growth [7] Coal Industry Analysis - In August 2025, coal supply showed a marginal decrease, with cumulative production of 3.165 billion tons for the first eight months, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.8% [10] - The demand for coal was supported by manufacturing and infrastructure investments, with fixed asset investment growing by 0.5% [10] - Coal prices experienced an unexpected rebound in August, driven by supply-demand tensions, with significant increases in both coking coal and thermal coal prices [11] Investment Recommendations - For the textile manufacturing sector, companies like Shenzhou International and Kairun Co. are recommended due to their strong performance outlook [9] - In the gold and jewelry retail sector, companies such as Laopuyin and Chaohongji are recommended, with expectations of sustained demand due to rising gold prices [9] - The coal sector suggests focusing on companies like Huayang Co. and Jinkong Coal Industry, anticipating improvements in production and sales ratios in the upcoming quarters [11]

Core Viewpoint - Citic Lyon maintains a target price of HKD 116 for Anta Sports (02020) and a "Outperform" rating, expressing confidence in the company's ability to achieve double-digit sales growth for the full year of 2025 [1] Group 1: Sales Growth and Market Strategy - Anta shows strong confidence in achieving double-digit sales growth for the full year of 2025, with signs of improvement observed from late August to the present [1] - The company's growth is primarily supported by a multi-brand matrix, increasingly relying on brand and service offerings that cater to emerging niche sports such as outdoor activities, tennis, golf, and yoga [1] Group 2: Cost Control and Operational Strategy - The company is exercising cautious cost control measures [1] - Anta plans to expand its store count in ASEAN countries to 1,000 within three years, with over 200 stores expected to open by the first half of 2025 [1] - Management is optimistic about enhancing operational superiority through a multi-brand strategy, and Citic Lyon remains positive about Anta's strong execution capabilities [1]

Core Insights - The cross-border e-commerce between China and Kazakhstan is rapidly growing, with increasing participation from Kazakh consumers in online shopping from Chinese platforms [5][8] - The efficiency of logistics and delivery services, such as next-day delivery in Almaty, is enhancing the appeal of Chinese products to Kazakh consumers [4][5] Group 1: Consumer Behavior - Young consumers in Kazakhstan are increasingly engaging in cross-border online shopping, with many purchasing a wide range of products from Chinese platforms [3][4] - Services like free shipping for orders over 99 yuan and local return options are making it easier for Kazakh consumers to shop from China [3][4] Group 2: E-commerce Infrastructure - The Horgos cross-border e-commerce industrial park has attracted over 40 e-commerce companies, facilitating trade and logistics between China and Kazakhstan [5][8] - The industrial park covers over 80,000 square meters and includes various facilities such as customs inspection centers and international mail exchange offices [8][9] Group 3: Trade Statistics - From January to July 2023, cross-border e-commerce trade volume reached 29.148 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 814.2% [5] - The range of products traded has expanded from daily necessities and clothing to include new energy products and industrial machinery [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the textile and apparel industry, highlighting potential investment opportunities in specific segments such as non-woven fabrics and sportswear [2][9]. Core Insights - The textile and apparel sector underperformed the market, with the SW textile and apparel index rising by 0.7%, lagging behind the SW All A index by 1.5 percentage points [4][6]. - Recent industry data indicates a 2.9% year-on-year increase in retail sales for clothing, shoes, and textiles, totaling 837.1 billion yuan from January to July [30]. - Exports of textiles and apparel decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, amounting to 197.27 billion USD from January to August, with a notable 5.0% decline in August alone [30][31]. Summary by Sections Textile Sector - Focus on investment opportunities in the entire non-woven fabric supply chain, with a significant weekly increase of 26% for Yanjiang Co. The production of non-woven fabrics has been declining since its peak in 2020, but the pandemic has heightened hygiene awareness, maintaining a large market scale [9][12]. - Yanjiang Co. has a global production footprint in China, Egypt, the USA, and India, with major clients including Procter & Gamble and Kimberly-Clark, contributing significantly to its revenue [9][12]. - The report recommends Nobon Co. for its growth potential in personal care and new tobacco products, highlighting its strong market position and technological capabilities [10][12]. Apparel Sector - Jiangnan Buyi reported a stable growth in its latest annual report, with a 4.6% increase in revenue to 5.55 billion yuan and a 6.0% rise in net profit to 900 million yuan for FY25 [12][19]. - The sportswear segment shows resilience, with brands like Anta and Li Ning demonstrating strong performance despite market challenges, with Anta's revenue increasing by 14% year-on-year [13][19]. - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand recovery in 2025, suggesting that high-quality domestic brands are poised for a turnaround [10][12]. Market Trends - The report notes a K-shaped recovery in retail, with high-end and cost-effective brands performing better. Innovations in retail formats are accelerating, with plans for significant store expansions in the coming year [13][19]. - The textile manufacturing sector is expected to benefit from favorable trade conditions, particularly for manufacturers with strong supply chain capabilities [10][12].