7 August 2024 | 3:15AM EDT Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI): F4Q24 review: Gross margin weakness offsets better revenue outlook SMCI's F4Q24 EPS missed ($6.25 v. $7.62-$8.42 guidance) as in-line revenue of $5.3 bn (v. $5.1-$5.5 bn guidance) was more than offset by a gross margin miss at 11.3% (v. consensus 14.2%). Weaker than expected gross margins of 11.3% were impacted by SMCI's focus on strategic new design wins with competitive pricing to win market share, customer mix (e.g., emerging hyperscalers) and ...

For the exclusive use of VIPS@RISKMACRO.COM 9a0c3bf0514c11deab0a0014c2408514 What's Top of Mind in Macro Research: US recession fears likely overblown, market volatility, Europe/China economic weakness 7 August 2024 | 4:39PM EDT This week: n US: weaker data, but recession fears likely overblown n Markets: bad news is bad news n Europe and China: a weaker economic picture, too Transcript US: weaker data, but recession fears likely overblown We raised our 12m US recession odds by 10pp to 25% and now expect a ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for imports with a score of +3, while exports received a score of 0, reflecting weaker performance [2]. Core Insights - China's export value growth was 7.0% year-over-year in July, which was below expectations, while import value growth was 7.2%, exceeding consensus forecasts [3][5]. - The trade surplus decreased to US$84.6 billion in July from US$99 billion in June, indicating a decline in export performance [5][9]. - Import strength was attributed to more working days in July this year compared to last year, contributing to a sequential growth of 4.0% in imports [5][6]. Summary by Category Export Performance - Year-over-year export growth moderated to 7.0% in July from 8.6% in June, with a sequential decline of 2.0% non-annualized [3][5]. - Exports to major trading partners showed mixed results, with exports to the US rising by 8.1% year-over-year and to the EU by 8.0% [6][10]. - Tech-related products, such as chips and automobiles, saw notable growth, with chip exports increasing by 27.7% year-over-year [7][11]. Import Performance - Import growth accelerated significantly to 7.2% year-over-year in July, compared to a decline of 2.3% in June, with a sequential increase of 4.0% [3][5]. - The most significant increases in imports were seen in automobiles, which rose by 17.3% year-over-year, and chips, which increased by 14.9% [8][12]. - Import value rose across major trading partners, with notable improvements from the US and EU [6][11].

8 August 2024 | 5:50AM EDT _ US Autos & Industrial Tech 2Q24 earnings recap, and thoughts on end market trends Coming out of 2Q24 earnings season, Street estimates on average moved lower for companies more tied to the auto end market (especially EV OEMs and auto suppliers), while estimates were generally revised up for companies with higher exposure to the datacenter market. In this note we show changes in Street consensus estimates and stock moves post earnings, as well as analyze end market demand trends ...

8 August 2024 | 12:50PM CST _ China Tower Corp. (0788.HK): 1H24 net profit largely in line; first interim dividend announced and a turnaround in FCF; Neutral We see encouraging signs from 1H24 results, including: 1) the announcement of an interim dividend for the first time; 2) a turnaround in free cash flow as previously guided; 3) a net debt decline resulting from cash flow improvements; and 4) net profit is largely in line. Additionally, management provided a more detailed guidance for 2024, including: 1 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a Buy rating to Kweichow Moutai with a 12-month price target of Rmb2,098 [3][4] Core Investment Thesis - Kweichow Moutai is the largest player in the China spirits industry with a 20% value share in 2022 [3] - The company benefits from strong fundamentals, high visibility, and upside from channel reforms [3] - Near-term earnings drivers include wholesale and direct sales growth, product portfolio enhancement, and price hikes [3] - Long-term growth is supported by supply-demand gap, market-driven pricing system, and growth of Moutai-flavor spirits [3] Financial Performance and Estimates - 2Q24 revenue was Rmb37.0bn, up 17% YoY, with net profit of Rmb17.6bn, up 16.1% YoY [35][55] - Moutai Spirits revenue grew 13% YoY to Rmb28.9bn, while Series spirits revenue accelerated to 43% YoY at Rmb7.2bn [35][36] - i-Moutai generated Rmb4.91bn in spirits sales in 2Q24, up 11% YoY, exceeding expectations [55] - The company aims for a 75% dividend payout ratio for 2024-26, implying total shareholder return of Rmb219bn [56] Valuation and Price Target - The 12-month price target of Rmb2,098 is based on a 29.4x 2026E P/E, discounted back to 2024E year-end using a 9.8% CoE [4] - The target P/E includes a 40% premium for Moutai's leading position in China's spirits industry and strong returns profile [4] - Moutai is trading at 21x/18x 2024E/2025E P/Es with a 12% earnings CAGR in 2024E-26E [63] Product and Channel Performance - Wholesale channel sales grew 27% YoY in 2Q24, supported by a price hike in November 2023 [55] - Direct sales grew 6% YoY in 2Q24, contributing 40% of total spirits sales [55][59] - i-Moutai contributed 14% of total sales in 2Q24, with 531k bottles released in July, down 60% YoY [60] Market Trends and Pricing - Feitian Moutai's wholesale price increased by Rmb180 for original case and Rmb130 for unpacked bottles in July [78] - Channel inventory stands below 1 month, with shipments expected to increase for the Mid-Autumn Festival [78] - Non-standard SKUs like Jingpin and Zodiac Moutai maintain decent channel profitability [79] Production and Supply - Base spirits production volume declined YoY in 1H24, with Moutai base spirits down 12.3% and Series base spirits down 5.4% [60] - The company has implemented active shipment controls, particularly for Moutai 1935 and Zodiac (500ml) [60]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the Consumer Staples sector in Europe is "In-Line" across various sub-sectors including Food Producers, Household & Personal Care Products, and Beverages [1][1][1]. Core Insights - The MS Consumer Staples Commodity Cost Index increased by +9.3% year-over-year (y/y) in July 2024, down from +11.3% y/y in June 2024, with a month-over-month (m/m) decline of -2.4% primarily due to moderation in cocoa and energy prices [1][1][1]. - Excluding chocolate companies, the Staples Commodity Cost Index showed a +1% increase y/y and remained flat m/m [1][1]. - The sector's cost outlook for 2024 and 2025 appears more benign, except for chocolate producers, with an estimated -2% decline in input cost pressures in 2024 for the Staples sector, excluding chocolate [1][1][1]. Summary by Category Commodity Price Changes - Significant y/y price increases were noted for cocoa (+115%), eggs (+98%), and coffee robusta (+68%), while other commodities like energy and grains remain below prior year levels [1][1]. - On a m/m basis, palm kernel oil (+6%) and coffee robusta (+5%) saw the most notable price increases, while US natural gas and energy prices declined by -18% [1][1]. Sector Performance - Brewers, Food (excluding chocolate), and Household & Personal Care (HPC) are positioned well for recovery in 2024, while Spirits and Brewers are expected to benefit from commodity tailwinds in 2025 [1][1]. - The cost tracker estimates declines in input cost pressures for brewers (-4.5%), food (-3.5%), and HPC (-3%) in 2024, with spirits and brewers projected to benefit from declining input costs in 2025 [1][1]. Company-Specific Insights - The report includes detailed estimates of the year-over-year inflation impact on input costs for various companies, highlighting the expected margin impacts based on commodity price changes [4][4][4]. - The analysis assumes a two-quarter lag for Food & HPC companies and a four-quarter lag for Beverages companies, reflecting the timing impact of forward buying and hedging contracts [4][4].

Stock Market A-Share Market Strategy Weekly Wait and See August 11th, 2024 Strategy Research Team: FANG Yi (analyst) GUO Yinhan (assistant) MA Haoran (analyst) 021-38031658 021-38031681 021-38031560 fangyi020833@gtjas.com guoyinhan026925@gtjas.com mahaoran027837@gtjas.com S0880118080080 S0880122080038 S0880523020002 Summary: ● It is advisable to stand by, for the time being. During the sideway corrections of A-share market in the past two weeks, low-valuation sectors and thematic stocks outperformed market ...

9 August 2024 | 8:21PM HKT Asia Credit Trader Decompression Creates Opportunities in Asia HY; Focus on Rate Cuts, Not on Recession The path of Asia credit spreads followed the macro markets over the past week, with spreads under pressure at the start of the week, but rebounding later in the week as macro concerns subside. That said, despite the very sharp increase in equity volatility, there were no signs of panic amongst Asia credit investors, and market activity was relatively muted. Upcoming macro data w ...

Financial Derivatives August 12, 2024 Morning Insight: August 12, 2024 Linlin Gao Certification：Z0002332 gaolinlin@gtjas.com Yu Chen Wu (Contact) Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen028987@gtjas.com Main Body Commodity Market Insight： PX (Paraxylene): The correction phase has temporarily ended, with a short-term bottoming out and rebound expected. A SEP-JAN spread strategy is recommended, though the medium-term outlook remains weak. 1.) Last week, crude oil prices were the first to stabilize, but weak demand in ...