China's Economic Policies and Debt Management - China plans a one-time Rmb6 trillion increase in local government special debt ceiling, with issuance spread evenly over 2024-26[19] - A Rmb10 trillion local government debt swap program is confirmed, aiming to restructure debt burdens among central and local governments, PBoC, and banks[19][22] - Beijing intends to increase the official deficit and expand the quota and usage of Local Government Special Bonds (LGSB) for 2025[19] US Tariff Impact on China - Scenario 1: 50%/60% targeted tariffs on China may have less impact than 2018-19, with a potential 1ppt GDP growth reduction, due to supply chain rewiring over the past 7 years[27] - Scenario 2: 50%/60% targeted tariffs on China plus 10% tariffs on the rest of the world could lead to higher deflation pressure and constrained export capacity[27] - China's export share in the US market has declined, but diversification to ASEAN and other regions has helped maintain a strong global export share[30][31] Sectoral Exposure to US Tariffs - Machinery and Electrical Equipment face a potential 50.9% incremental tariff, with 15.2% of China's exports going to the US[36] - Miscellaneous Manufactured Articles (e.g., toys, furniture) could see a 52.7% incremental tariff, with 27.4% of China's exports to the US[36] - Textiles face a 41.0% incremental tariff, with 15.7% of China's exports to the US[36] Reflation and Social Welfare Reforms - China's GDP deflator could rise to 2.0% in 2025 and 2.5% in 2026 under an optimal case with a Rmb10 trillion fiscal stimulus[37] - Social welfare spending in China is significantly lower than the G7 average, with only 13% of GDP allocated to social security contributions[43][44] - Household saving rates in China remain high, driven by insufficient social safety nets, with rural residents and migrant workers showing higher saving rates[47][48] Housing Market and Urban Development - A 1 million unit urban village renovation program is announced, with Rmb0.8 trillion allocated for cash resettlement, aiming to reduce housing inventory[39][41] - Residential inventory in China remains elevated, with 6.1 million units under construction as of 2024[39]

Economic Outlook - China's GDP growth is projected to decelerate to 4.5% in 2025 from 4.9% in 2024, influenced by property deleveraging and slower exports due to rising trade frictions with developed markets[2][9] - Nominal growth will be constrained by low inflation, with CPI at 0.8% and PPI at 0% for 2025, reflecting demand headwinds and stable global commodity prices[9][10] Market Performance - MSCI China and CSI300 are expected to appreciate by 15% and 13% respectively in 2025, driven by EPS growth forecasts of 7%-10%[2][4] - Housing sales are anticipated to decline by 9% in value and 4% in volume, extending a correction of 57% since 2021[9][10] Policy and Investment - A significant policy shift is underway, with augmented fiscal deficits projected to rise from 11.2% in 2024 to 13% in 2025 to support property destocking and consumption stimulus[2][21] - The government is expected to provide around RMB 8 trillion (approximately USD 1.1 trillion) in additional fiscal support, equating to 5.8% of 2025 GDP[21][26] Sector Insights - Consumption growth is forecasted to rebound to 5.0% in 2025, supported by targeted fiscal spending and improvements in service-oriented sectors[9][10] - The healthcare and broker sectors have been upgraded to Overweight, reflecting a broad consumption tilt in investment portfolios[2][4] Earnings Projections - Profit growth for MSCI China and CSI300 is forecasted at 7% and 10% respectively, below consensus estimates due to tariff risks impacting revenue and profitability[36][42] - Revenue growth is expected to align with nominal GDP growth, projected at 6% for 2025[36][42]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - Plastic pollution is recognized as a critical global environmental challenge, prompting international efforts to develop a legally binding instrument on plastic pollution, referred to as the 'Plastic Treaty' [18][29]. - The report identifies eleven key tools designed to assist national governments in planning actions to address plastic pollution, emphasizing the need for a structured approach to navigate the complexities of the issue [19][20]. - A systematic four-step process is proposed for action planning: conducting a baseline analysis, assessing potential solutions, determining financial needs, and implementing actions while monitoring impacts [22][40]. Summary by Sections Executive Summary - The report highlights the global challenge of plastic pollution and the various tools developed to assess and implement solutions [18][19]. - It aims to support national governments in planning actions against plastic pollution by providing information on specific tools available for this purpose [20][30]. Introduction - The introduction outlines the establishment of an Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee to develop the Plastic Treaty and the need for various tools to assess and address plastic pollution [29][30]. - It emphasizes the importance of understanding the scale and nature of plastic pollution to inform effective decision-making [31][32]. Typical Steps for Action Planning - The report details a four-step framework for action planning: baseline analysis, solution assessment, financial needs determination, and implementation with monitoring [40][41][42]. - Each step requires consideration of various factors, including stakeholder engagement, institutional contexts, and the nature of plastic flows [37][39]. Tools to Conduct a Baseline Analysis - The report categorizes tools for baseline analysis into two main groups: assessing plastic flows and leakage, and understanding institutional and governance contexts [49][50]. - Key tools identified include the Hotspotting Tool, Material Flow Analysis Tool, and others that assist in understanding the current situation regarding plastic pollution [47][48][50]. Tools to Assess Potential Solutions - The report discusses tools that help prioritize impactful policies and measures to reduce plastic pollution, emphasizing the need for a comprehensive action plan [41][42]. - It highlights the importance of comparing different potential actions and setting appropriate targets as part of the action planning process [41][42]. Financial Needs and Implementation - The report stresses the necessity of determining financial needs and investment plans for implementing the action plan effectively [42][43]. - It notes that ongoing efforts are required to develop tools that assist in identifying financing sources and support the implementation stage [25][26].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the sustainable rice market, but it highlights significant investment opportunities in sustainable rice cultivation and financing [15][18]. Core Insights - The sustainable rice market is integral to global food systems, with rice being a staple for 3.5 billion people and contributing to about one-fifth of the global calorie supply [10][11]. - The International Finance Corporation (IFC) is actively exploring investment opportunities in the rice sector, focusing on sustainable practices and climate-smart agricultural methods [15][34]. - The Sustainable Rice Platform (SRP) aims to promote sustainable rice cultivation and has seen increasing market presence, although the current SRP-verified portion of the market remains small [24][27]. Summary by Sections Executive Summary - Rice is crucial for food security and livelihoods, with significant contributions to global calorie supply and greenhouse gas emissions [10][14]. - The report emphasizes the need for sustainable practices to reduce methane emissions and enhance resilience in rice farming [14][15]. Introduction - Rice is a vital staple food globally, with over 1.5 billion people relying on it for their livelihoods, primarily in Asia and the Pacific [12][35]. - The report outlines the importance of rice in the World Bank Group's Climate Change Action Plan, focusing on sustainable farming systems [33][34]. Rice Supply Chain - The rice supply chain includes production, collection, milling, processing, and distribution, with various sourcing models employed by millers [75][99]. - Commercial rice mills are characterized by vertical integration, controlling multiple stages of the supply chain from farming to retail [99][100]. Key Impacts of Rice Cultivation - Rice cultivation significantly impacts greenhouse gas emissions, land use, and water consumption, necessitating sustainable practices to mitigate these effects [14][36]. The Sustainable Rice Platform - The SRP Assurance Scheme was launched to verify compliance with sustainable rice standards, with a small but growing area under verification [21][24]. - The SRP has gained traction in the retail market, with verified rice labels available in multiple countries [27]. Selected Financing Opportunities for Sustainable Rice - Supplier finance is identified as a potential investment opportunity to promote climate-smart practices in the rice sector [18][19]. - The GTSF program offers short-term financing linked to environmental and social performance, encouraging sustainable practices among suppliers [19][20]. Conclusion - The report suggests that further support for the sustainable rice market can be achieved through the deployment of financing instruments and the development of new modules for climate finance [28][30].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The World Bank has established rated criteria as the default approach for new international procurement in the transport sector, effective from September 1, 2023, focusing on evaluating non-price attributes such as quality, risks, sustainability, and technical aspects [10][12] - Rated criteria have been widely used for over 30 years in public procurement, allowing for a true value assessment that emphasizes quality and risk management [11] - The guidance and tools for implementing rated criteria are included in the updated procurement regulations and standard procurement documents [12] Summary by Sections Establishment of Rated Criteria - Rated criteria are mandatory for evaluating bids in new international procurements, focusing on non-price attributes [10][12] - The number of rated criteria varies based on project complexity, risks, and borrower experience [12] Types of Evaluation Criteria - Different evaluation criteria are used to assess bids, including process criteria, qualification criteria, minimum requirements, and qualitative rated criteria [14][16] - The evaluation approach is informed by the Project Procurement Strategy for Development (PPSD) [15] Technical vs Financial Cost Weighting - The weighting of technical versus financial costs is determined based on specific project risks and opportunities, with equal weighting in high-risk, high-value procurements [28] Rated Criteria - Rated criteria assess quality, sustainability, and innovation in bids, focusing on the methodology prepared by bidders [29][30] - A minimum quality threshold may be established to ensure only bids meeting quality standards are considered [32] Prequalification and Selection Criteria - Prequalification is used to assess minimum qualification criteria on a pass/fail basis, while initial selection evaluates bidders against rated criteria [25][26] - The evaluation process includes assessing management capabilities, technical performance, and qualitative aspects of bids [19][21] Road Safety Management - The report emphasizes the importance of road safety management in contractor selection, incorporating standards like ISO 39001 and the FIA Safety Index [64][65] - A comprehensive road safety management plan is essential for evaluating bidders' capabilities in managing road safety during contract implementation [70][73]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the steel industry in China Core Insights - The transition to low-carbon and near-zero-carbon steel production is essential for meeting global climate goals and presents opportunities for high-quality development in the steel industry and its downstream partners [29][30] - The report emphasizes the need for accelerated deployment of near-zero-carbon steel projects to avoid locking in carbon emissions through the continued use of existing equipment [32][41] - The study highlights the importance of economic assessments at the project level to address the financial challenges associated with transitioning to low-carbon technologies [34][36] Summary by Sections 1. China's Steel Industry under the Carbon Neutrality Goal - China's steel industry is a major contributor to global emissions, with direct emissions accounting for approximately 14% of the country's total [38] - The industry is heavily reliant on coal, which constitutes 76% of its energy use, compared to lower percentages in Europe and the United States [39] - The report outlines the potential for increasing the share of short-process production, which currently accounts for less than 10% of total production, as urbanization and industrialization progress [40][43] 2. Economics and Transition Costs - The report categorizes steel production routes into long process, short process, and direct reduction, with varying emissions and economic implications [61][62] - The cost of producing steel through different routes varies significantly, with the BF-BOF method costing about 3,200 RMB/ton, while the cost for H2 DRI-EAF could reach around 4,100 RMB/ton as green hydrogen becomes more integrated [90][92] - The transition from higher-carbon to lower-carbon production routes is a gradual process that requires careful consideration of existing facilities and resources [97] 3. Integrated Solutions to Solve the Cost Puzzle - The report discusses the roles of policy, demand-side, and financial stakeholders in supporting the transition of the steel industry [23] - It emphasizes the need for a comprehensive solution that enhances project profitability and sustainability through various supporting levers, including green hydrogen subsidies and carbon markets [36] 4. Recommendations - The report presents six action recommendations aimed at mobilizing stakeholders to create favorable conditions for the deployment of near-zero-carbon steel projects [36]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the significant potential of digitalization in enhancing the effectiveness, efficiency, and quality of Human Development (HD) services across the Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region, particularly in education, health, and social protection sectors [24][30][34]. Summary by Sections 1. Introduction - Digital Human Development services integrate information technology with service delivery, facilitating a comprehensive digital transformation that includes identification systems, management information systems, communication platforms, data analytics, mobile applications, interoperability frameworks, and cybersecurity measures [30][31]. 2. Digitalization of Human Development Services - Digitalization promises substantial improvements in service delivery effectiveness and quality, with a focus on enhancing access and efficiency in education, health, and social protection sectors [24][34]. - The report identifies critical success factors for digitalization, including the establishment of digital foundations such as high-speed internet access and modern data hosting capacity, followed by the development of digital enablers like strategy development and digital skills [52][56]. 2.1 Digital Foundations - High-speed internet access and modern data hosting capabilities are essential for effective digital service delivery across all sectors [50][56]. - Internet usage in ECA has increased, with 84% of the population using the internet in 2022, although there are significant disparities in access among countries [56][58]. 2.2 Digital Enablers - The report highlights the importance of developing interoperable and safe data platforms, which include digital identity systems, digital payments, and data sharing capabilities [24][52]. - Digital skills development is crucial for the effective adoption and use of digital technologies, with a focus on enhancing both basic and high-level digital competencies [52][56]. 3. Key Takeaways and Ways Forward - The report outlines several key takeaways for advancing digitalization, including the need for cohesive national digital strategies, robust policy frameworks, and cross-sector collaboration to avoid fragmentation and duplication of efforts [24][26]. - Investments in digital infrastructure, security, and building public trust through effective communication about data use and protection are essential for successful digital transformation [26][28].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Climate change threatens Djibouti's development goals, potentially leading to economic losses equivalent to nearly four years of current output by mid-century due to increased extreme heat, drought, and floods [49][55] - Policies and investments aimed at climate adaptation can significantly reduce economic damages, with a limited set of priority actions capable of halving potential GDP losses [50][76] - Significant infrastructure investments have been made, but Djibouti must ensure these assets deliver on their promise for resilience and economic diversification [51][56] - Capacity building, economic reform, and skills development are critical for successful adaptation and diversification [53][78] - Additional concessional resources are required for climate adaptation, with estimated needs exceeding US$2.8 billion [54][76] Summary by Sections Chapter 1 – Climate and Development - Djibouti's economic growth has elevated it to lower-middle-income status, driven by political stability, strategic location, and significant foreign direct investment [86] - The economy is heavily reliant on the services sector, particularly trade with Ethiopia, making it vulnerable to external shocks [90] Chapter 2 – Country Climate Commitments, Policies, and Capacities - The report emphasizes the need for a stronger institutional framework to implement climate policies and mobilize financing [83] Chapter 3 – Selected Climate and Development Priorities - Djibouti's interdependence with neighboring countries through trade and migration is crucial for achieving development priorities while enhancing resilience [66] - Investments in water management, urban planning, and health care are essential to safeguard livability [70] Chapter 4 – Macroeconomic and Welfare Implications of Climate Change - Climate impacts could generate a permanent annual loss of up to 6% of GDP by 2050, with cumulative losses estimated at US$14-15 billion [75] - Adaptation investments are necessary to mitigate these impacts, with a focus on fiscal management and mobilizing international support [77] Chapter 5 – Conclusion and Recommendations - Economic reform, capacity building, and investment in skills are critical to the adaptation agenda, ensuring that infrastructure investments yield expected benefits [78]

Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Policy Research Working Paper 10974 Resolving Puzzles of Monetary Policy Transmission in Emerging Markets Jongrim Ha Dohan Kim M. Ayhan Kose Eswar S. Prasad Public Disclosure Authorized Development Economics Prospects Group November 2024 Policy Research Working Paper 10974 Abstract Conventional empirical models of monetary policy transmission in emerging market economies produce puzzling results: monetary tightening often ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the insurance industry, particularly in personal lines and commercial property and casualty (P&C) insurance, suggesting opportunities for profitable growth [6][43][156]. Core Insights - The global insurance industry is navigating a volatile environment characterized by high inflation, uncertain interest rates, and geopolitical instability, yet there are significant opportunities for growth [5][6]. - Personal P&C insurance premiums grew by 9.5% in 2022-23, reaching $1.1 trillion, indicating a recovery from previous stagnation [7][46]. - Commercial P&C insurance lines have seen an average premium increase of 8% annually over the past five years, with a focus on capturing consistent, profitable growth amid changing market conditions [10][171]. - The life insurance market is being reshaped by demographic changes, particularly the aging population, which presents opportunities for innovative retirement solutions [12][260]. Summary by Sections Personal P&C - The personal lines P&C industry is recovering, with premium growth driven primarily by rate increases rather than expansion into new risks [42][50]. - The relevance of personal lines as a share of global GDP remains below pre-pandemic levels, indicating a need for innovation and increased coverage [47][48]. - Emerging markets in Latin America and Asia present potential growth opportunities as economic conditions improve [8][33]. Commercial P&C - Commercial P&C insurance has experienced strong growth, primarily due to higher premiums, but there is a need to find growth beyond rate increases as market conditions soften [10][171]. - Insurers must focus on operational excellence and effective portfolio strategies to sustain profitability [11][202]. - The protection gap for natural catastrophes and cyber threats presents significant opportunities for insurers to innovate and expand their offerings [180][183]. Life Insurance - The life insurance industry is facing challenges with stagnant demand for traditional products, but there are bright spots in retirement solutions and health insurance [248][259]. - The aging population is driving demand for tailored retirement products, creating opportunities for insurers to regain relevance [260][284]. - Insurers are encouraged to integrate wealth and health solutions to meet evolving consumer needs and enhance customer experience [292][296]. Distribution and Technology - Distribution channels are evolving, with a shift towards embedded insurance and digital platforms that enhance customer engagement [123][130]. - The adoption of generative AI is transforming underwriting and claims processes, enabling insurers to improve efficiency and customer service [132][224]. - Insurers must adapt to changing distribution landscapes and strengthen relationships with brokers to capture profitable growth [228][230]. Strategic Directions - Insurers are encouraged to adopt clear growth strategies, focusing on distinctive capabilities and operational efficiencies to navigate the changing market landscape [210][244]. - The report outlines three archetypes for insurers: core players focusing on traditional coverage, innovators expanding into specialized products, and targeted players differentiating through marketing and servicing [137][140]. - Emphasizing the importance of partnerships and technology investments will be crucial for insurers to thrive in the evolving insurance ecosystem [131][240].