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Global Insurance Report 2025: Finding profitable personal lines growth
麦肯锡· 2024-11-19 00:08
Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the personal lines property and casualty (P&C) insurance industry, pivoting towards sustained, profitable growth [8][13]. Core Insights - The personal lines P&C industry generated approximately $1.1 trillion in gross written premiums in 2023, representing about a quarter of the total insurance industry's premiums. Premium growth of 9.5% in 2022-2023 outpaced nominal global GDP growth by 0.5 percentage points [11][12]. - Despite growth, the industry's relevance, measured as gross written premiums as a share of nominal GDP, remains below pre-pandemic levels, with personal lines at 1.0% of global GDP compared to 1.2% in 2019 [12][14]. - The report highlights that the growth in personal lines has been primarily driven by rate increases, particularly in auto and home insurance, with limited expansion into new risks [16][17]. Summary by Sections Insurance Affordability - Rising coverage costs are becoming more widespread, with home insurance costs in the U.S. increasing from 1.0% of household income in 2019 to 1.2% in 2023. This trend is attributed to rising asset prices, increased repair costs, and higher reinsurance costs [27][28][29]. Trends Affecting Personal Lines - Emerging mobility models and the increasing frequency of natural disasters are forcing carriers to rethink their coverage approaches. The report emphasizes the need for innovation and adaptation to capture new growth opportunities [45][46]. Industry Profitability - The report notes that combined ratios deteriorated in 2022-2023 due to inflation, but are expected to recover in 2024 as inflation stabilizes and rate increases take effect, shifting the focus towards profitable growth [25][26]. Market Opportunities - Select emerging markets are on the verge of expanding relevance, with notable countries such as Brazil, Chile, Malaysia, and Mexico presenting opportunities for growth as their GDP per capita increases [70][71].
Global Insurance Report 2025: Searching for profitable growth in commercial lines
麦肯锡· 2024-11-19 00:08
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The commercial property and casualty (P&C) insurance industry is facing challenges in finding profitable growth due to macroeconomic uncertainties, inflation, and shifting trade patterns [5][7][9] - The global protection gap for natural catastrophes increased to $262 billion in 2023, highlighting the need for insurers to address widening protection gaps [23][24] - Insurers must reassess their strategies to capture growth profitably as reliance on rising premiums is no longer sustainable [9][17] Summary by Sections Introduction - The commercial P&C insurers are confronting macroeconomic uncertainties, including persistent inflation and geopolitical instability, which may affect growth [5][6][7] Finding Growth Beyond Rate Increases - Premiums in commercial P&C insurance grew by an average of 8% annually over the past five years, with the average combined ratio estimated at 91% in 2023 [13][14] - Growth has primarily been driven by rate increases, with a need to find alternative growth avenues as rates show signs of softening [17][22] Is Demand for Commercial Insurance Growing? - The demand for commercial insurance is not growing fast enough, with significant protection gaps persisting, particularly in cyber insurance [23][24][26] Profitability Can Be Elusive - Specialty lines have shown consistent profitability, but overall profitability remains elusive for many insurers, with combined ratios often exceeding 100% in various lines [28][29] The Challenge: Capturing and Sustaining Profitable Growth - Insurers need to focus on capturing consistent, profitable growth amid market shifts, as performance is driven more by operational execution than by the lines of business [39][45] Four Key Drivers of Superior Commercial P&C Performance - Top-performing insurers exhibit clarity in growth strategies, invest in underwriting operations, reduce acquisition costs, and achieve operational efficiencies [51][52] Leaders Have Clear Strategies to Capture Profitable Growth - Leading insurers are more likely to have clear and targeted growth strategies, which are essential in a changing market landscape [52][53] Insurers Must Have Distinctive Capabilities - Insurers are encouraged to focus on niche markets and specialized products to enhance their competitive edge [53][55] Models Requiring Limited Underwriting Involvement Continue to Grow - The use of managing general agents (MGAs) is increasing, with significant growth in premiums written through MGAs [55] Investors Want Clear Growth Strategies from Insurers - Insurers must articulate clear growth narratives to attract investment, as traditional sources of capital are becoming more challenging [56][57] Generative AI Has Wide Applicability - Insurers are increasingly deploying generative AI to enhance underwriting processes and improve operational efficiencies [65][66] Competition for Talent is Intensifying - The competition for quality underwriting talent is increasing, necessitating insurers to provide advanced tools and analytics to attract and retain talent [66] Insurers Must Navigate a Changing Distribution Landscape - Insurers need to rethink their distribution strategies to improve efficiency and reduce acquisition costs [67] Insurer–Broker Relations Will Become Even More Important - Strong relationships with brokers are essential for insurers to achieve profitable growth in a competitive landscape [69][70] Insurers Should Manage the Quality of Their Distribution Networks - Insurers must ensure diligence in managing their distribution networks to maintain quality and profitability [71] Digital Connectivity is Transforming the Purchase of Insurance - Digital platforms are enhancing the efficiency of insurance transactions, reducing friction between brokers and underwriters [72] Leaders Manage Administration Expenses Through Operational Efficiencies - Leading insurers maintain lower administration expense ratios compared to their peers, but must continue to improve efficiency [74][75]
Reviving Lake Victoria
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2024-11-18 23:08
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - Lake Victoria is facing a significant water quality crisis due to unsustainable land management, human waste, and industrial effluent, which has deteriorated over the last 40 years, impacting livelihoods and health in the basin communities [10][32][34] - The Lakewide Inclusive Sanitation (LWIS) Strategy aims to address sanitation challenges through a coordinated regional approach involving the five Partner States: Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda, and Burundi [10][35][41] - An estimated 33 million people in the Lake Victoria Basin lack access to improved sanitation, contributing to pollution and health issues [10][32][33] Summary by Sections Chapter 1: Valuable Regional Resource Under Threat - Lake Victoria is Africa's largest lake and a critical resource for over 47 million people, yet its water quality is declining due to urbanization and inadequate sanitation services [10][31][34] - The lake supports significant fisheries, providing livelihoods for around 3 million people, but pollution from urban settlements is a primary concern [10][31][32] Chapter 2: Bringing Communities and Countries Together Around a Common Approach - The LWIS initiative focuses on understanding the impact of poor sanitation and creating solutions through stakeholder engagement across the five countries [10][38][41] - Strategic Sanitation Action Plans (SSAPs) have been developed for selected urban areas to operationalize the LWIS Strategy [10][54][55] Chapter 3: The LWIS Strategy: A Roadmap for Effective Lakewide Sanitation - The LWIS Strategy includes four components: an enabling environment for improved sanitation, integration of planning and service delivery, regional cooperation, and a sustainable sanitation economy [10][40][41] - The strategy aims to enhance vital lake functions and improve access to sanitation services for all communities around Lake Victoria [10][78] Chapter 4: Growing a Sustainable Sanitation Economy - The report highlights the potential for job creation through sanitation SMEs, estimating around 69,000 jobs over a 10-year period [10][56][59] - The estimated cost for transformational sanitation investments to reduce pollution to the lake is around US$1.9 billion [10][66] Chapter 5: A Regional Blueprint for a Healthier Lake - The LWIS approach is expected to improve water quality and resilience against climate change impacts, emphasizing the need for coordinated action and private sector involvement [10][78][80] - Recommendations include enhancing monitoring and data access, supporting policy and regulatory frameworks, and promoting private sector engagement [10][81][84]
Weathering Shocks
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2024-11-18 23:03
Policy Research Working Paper 10970 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Weathering Shocks Unraveling the Effects of Short-Term Weather Shocks on Poverty in Paraguay Teresa Janz Franziska Gassmann Lyliana Gayoso de Ervin Poverty and Equity Global Practice November 2024 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Policy Research Working Paper 10970 Abstract In Paraguay, poverty reduction has stalled since 2014 due to a deceleration in economic growth, which has been argued ...
Afghanistan’s New Economic Landscape
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2024-11-18 23:03
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The Afghan economy experienced a significant contraction of 20.7 percent in 2021, with a continued decline in 2022, but civilian nighttime luminosity indicates a recovery, surpassing pre-2020/21 levels by 10.5 percent by 2023/24, despite official GDP data showing a one-quarter reduction compared to 2020 [2][8][36][71] Summary by Sections Introduction and Motivation - The Afghan economy faced severe shocks following the regime change in August 2021, with GDP contracting sharply and continuing to decline despite some international aid resumption [8][36] Economic Context - The economy has transitioned through distinct phases, with high growth from 2003 to 2012 driven by international aid, followed by sluggish growth until the Taliban takeover, and a significant contraction post-2021 [31][32][36] Data and Methods - The study utilizes nighttime light data as a proxy for economic activity, filtering out military installations to better reflect local economic dynamics [11][19][42] Results - Civilian nighttime lights provide a more accurate representation of economic activity than total luminosity, with a strong correlation to GDP, especially post-2021 [51][59] - The analysis shows that civilian luminosity has recovered significantly, indicating a local economic recovery, while total luminosity remains below pre-2020 levels [67][71][72]
Opening Early Market for Low-Carbon Building Materials by Public Procurement in China
RMI· 2024-11-17 00:18
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the low-carbon building materials industry in China Core Insights - The transition to low-carbon building materials is essential for China to meet its dual carbon targets, as emissions from building materials accounted for over 20% of the country's total emissions in 2020, with cement and steel being the largest contributors [10][12] - Government procurement for public projects is a significant driver of demand for building materials, and utilizing low-carbon procurement can create an early market for these materials, leading to coordinated emissions reductions across the industrial chain [13][36] - The report emphasizes the need for a transition from green procurement to low-carbon procurement, highlighting the importance of establishing clear definitions, improved data transparency, and performance standards for building materials [19][23] Summary by Sections Emissions and Market Potential - In 2020, CO2 emissions from building materials exceeded 2.3 billion tons, with cement and steel contributing 53% and 36% of emissions respectively [10][12] - By 2030, public procurement could generate demand for 45 million tons of low-emissions steel and 277 million tons of low-carbon concrete materials, leading to significant emissions reductions [36][41] Transitioning to Low-Carbon Procurement - The report outlines five critical components for transitioning to low-carbon procurement, including defining the scope, improving data transparency, establishing carbon performance standards, providing incentives, and ensuring effective implementation [23][25] - Current green building materials focus on durability and health metrics, with limited disclosure on CO2 emissions, necessitating a shift towards low-carbon metrics [19][53] Cost-Effectiveness and Economic Benefits - Using low-carbon materials can reduce emissions with minimal cost increases, with an example showing an increase of only 8 RMB/square meter while achieving significant CO2 reductions [43][45] - The report indicates that while near-zero carbon materials may have higher initial costs, advancements in technology could limit these increases significantly by 2030 [43][44] Product Carbon Accounting and Certification - China's carbon footprint management for building materials is in its early stages, with a need for localized material databases and robust standards to enhance low-carbon practices [47][48] - The report highlights the importance of developing Product Category Rules (PCRs) to ensure consistency and comparability in low-carbon building materials [48][49] Implementation and Innovation - Priority areas for low-carbon material applications include infrastructure projects, public buildings, and rural housing, which can benefit from policy-driven low-carbon standards [59][60] - Financial incentives and performance-based standards are recommended to promote the adoption of low-carbon materials in public procurement [63][64]
Climate Adaptation Finance: Unlocking Private Finance
钱伯斯(Baker McKenzie)· 2024-11-16 04:58
Industry Investment Rating - The report highlights a significant gap in climate adaptation finance, indicating a need for increased investment and private sector involvement [3][5] Core Viewpoints - Climate adaptation finance needs to increase fourfold to meet the required levels, with developing countries particularly in need [3][6] - Private sector contributions to adaptation finance are currently modest, making up less than 3% of total sustainable finance [4] - The gap between available and required finance presents a substantial opportunity for institutional investors and commercial banks, with estimates ranging from USD 187-359 billion annually [5] - COP initiatives, such as the Climate Finance Action Fund, aim to catalyze public and private sector collaboration in adaptation finance [11] Key Summaries by Section Introduction - Climate change adaptation is underfunded, with most finance coming from the public sector, while private sector contributions remain minimal [4] COP Initiatives - Developed countries were urged to double their adaptation finance provision by 2025, with new pledges of nearly USD 188 million made during COP28 [9] - The COP29 Presidency is prioritizing the establishment of a New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) to replace the current USD 100 billion annual climate finance target [10] Barriers to Private Sector Involvement - Lack of standardized definitions and frameworks for adaptation finance compared to transition finance [12] - Insufficient detailed information on climate risks for specific projects, compounded by challenges in data disclosure and sharing [12] - Long timelines for returns and difficulties in pricing risk and return, making it challenging for commercial entities to justify investments [12] Bridging the Gap - Measures to address barriers include greater government support, standardized approaches, and increased disclosure of project-relevant information [13] - Promising funding methods include debt-for-impact swaps and public/private partnerships, which can reduce investment risk and unlock private finance [14][16] Debt-for-Impact Swaps - Ecuador's 2023 debt-for-nature swap, valued at USD 1.6 billion, is a successful example of this model, with savings directed toward marine conservation [14][15] Public/Private Partnerships - Blended finance, combining concessional public finance with private finance, is a key tool for scaling up private investment in adaptation projects [17] Other Financing Instruments - A range of instruments, including project finance, results-based finance, and guarantees, can help bridge the adaptation finance gap [18][19] The Future - Political will and resource allocation are critical to closing the adaptation finance gap, with time being of the essence to address climate change impacts [20]
(Q)SAR Assessment Framework: Guidance for the regulatory assessment of (Quantitative) Structure Activity Relationship models and predictions, Second Edition
OECD· 2024-11-16 04:13
(Q)SAR Assessment Framework: Guidance for the regulatory assessment of (Quantitative) Structure Activity Relationship models and predictions, Second Edition Series on Testing and Assessment No. 405 1 OECD Series on Testing and Assessment No. 405 PUBE | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------|----------------| | | | | for the regulatory assessment of | | | (Quantitative) Structure Activity Relationship | | | models and predictions - | Second edition | (Q)SAR ASSESSMENT FRAMEWORK: GUIDAN ...
The G20 and the promotion of equal opportunities
OECD· 2024-11-16 04:13
The G20 and the promotion of equal opportunities Tackling the root causes of inequality, exclusion and discrimination 1 f The G20 and the promotion of equal opportunities THE G20 AND THE PROMOTION OF EQUAL OPPORTUNITIES © OECD 2024 PUBE Tackling the root causes of inequality, exclusion and discrimination This work is published under the responsibility of the Secretary-General of the OECD. The opinions expressed and arguments employed herein do not necessarily reflect the official views of the Member countri ...
Implementing the OECD Anti-Bribery Convention Phase 4 Two-Year Follow-Up Report: Portugal
OECD· 2024-11-16 04:08
Investment Rating - The report indicates that Portugal has fully implemented 5 recommendations, partially implemented 20 recommendations, and not implemented 20 recommendations regarding the OECD Anti-Bribery Convention [6]. Core Insights - Portugal has made progress in implementing several Phase 4 recommendations, particularly in increasing resources and expertise for law enforcement authorities, which has led to indictments in ongoing foreign bribery cases [7]. - However, significant concerns remain regarding the legal framework and enforcement actions, with no convictions or sanctions imposed for foreign bribery since the adoption of the Phase 4 report [9]. Summary of Findings - Portugal's efforts include the effective implementation of the National Anti-Corruption Mechanism and improved feedback from the Financial Intelligence Unit regarding suspicious transaction reports [7]. - Despite these efforts, Portugal has not adequately addressed recommendations related to whistleblower protection and maintaining detailed statistics on foreign bribery cases [7]. - Longstanding legal framework concerns persist, particularly regarding the lack of sanctions for natural persons and the absence of amendments to ensure effective corporate liability for foreign bribery [7][9]. Recommendations Regarding Prevention and Detection of Foreign Bribery - Portugal has partially implemented measures to raise awareness of corruption among public officials, but specific training on foreign bribery remains insufficient [10]. - The country has taken limited steps to clarify whistleblower protections and broaden the definition of retaliation [11]. - There are ongoing efforts to enhance training for law enforcement and public officials regarding money laundering and foreign bribery, but further action is needed [12]. Recommendations Regarding Enforcement of Foreign Bribery and Related Offences - Portugal has not implemented key recommendations regarding the imposition of fines as sanctions for foreign bribery, which raises concerns about the effectiveness of penalties [15]. - While some training sessions for judges and prosecutors have been organized, there is a need for broader dissemination of good practices related to sanctions [15]. - The country has made progress in confiscation measures related to foreign bribery cases, but further training and awareness are necessary [15]. Recommendations Regarding Liability of, and Engagement with, Legal Persons - Portugal has not taken steps to ensure that the liability of legal persons for foreign bribery is not contingent on the conviction of associated natural persons [20]. - Concerns remain regarding the vague definition of the defense of acting against express orders, which could allow companies to evade liability for foreign bribery [20].