Global Research and Evidence Lab 14 August 2024 Equities UBS Railroads Weekly Volume +3.6% In Week 32; Western Rails Volume Growth Driven By Recent Shift of IM Volumes Americas Railroads Thomas Wadewitz Analyst thomas.wadewitz@ubs.com +1-212-713 6116 Michael Triano Analyst michael.triano@ubs.com +1-212-713 3822 Michael DiMattia Analyst michael.dimattia@ubs.com +1-617-748 5628 Volume up +3.6% y/y in Wk 32; Stacked was down -1.3% Volumes in Week 32 rose +3.6% y/y, following +3.5% growth in Week 31 and +2.9% g ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Ipsen SA with a 12-month price target of €145.00, indicating a potential upside from the current price of €106.80 [2][15][18]. Core Insights - Ipsen SA is focused on the launch of its drug Igirvo, recently approved for a rare liver disease, which is in competition with Gilead's Livdelzi [2]. - The report highlights the comparable indications and usage sections of both Igirvo and Livdelzi, noting that both drugs are approved for 2L primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) [2]. - Physician feedback suggests that the lack of pruritus indication for Livdelzi may not significantly impact the competitive landscape for Igirvo [2]. - The report anticipates positive sentiment support for Ipsen, especially following a recent stock pullback [2]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for Ipsen are expected to grow from €3,306 million in 2023 to €4,526 million by 2028 [2]. - EBIT is forecasted to increase from €1,001 million in 2023 to €1,480 million in 2028 [2]. - Net earnings are projected to rise from €763 million in 2023 to €1,140 million in 2028 [2]. - The diluted EPS is expected to grow from €9.15 in 2023 to €13.67 in 2028 [2]. Valuation Methodology - The valuation of Ipsen is based on a 50/50 blend of a DCF-based sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) analysis and peer multiples [3][6]. Market Outlook - The report indicates a forecast price appreciation of 35.8% and a forecast stock return of 36.9%, suggesting a strong investment opportunity relative to the market return assumption of 8.0% [4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a 12-month rating of Neutral to Hydro One Limited with a price target of C$42.00 [1][13]. Core Insights - Hydro One Limited reported an adjusted EPS of C$0.49 for Q2'24, matching consensus expectations and showing a 2.0% increase from C$0.48 in Q2'23 [1]. - The company's performance was driven by higher rates and peak demand, offset by taxes, depreciation and amortization, and asset removal costs [1]. - Hydro One has filed for approval to construct the St. Clair Transmission Line Project, expected to cost C$472 million and be operational by 2028 [1]. Financial Metrics - The market capitalization of Hydro One is C$26.5 billion (US$19.4 billion) with 598 million shares outstanding [1]. - Revenue projections show an increase from C$7,225 million in 2021 to an estimated C$8,135 million in 2024 [1]. - The net earnings forecast for 2024 is C$1,154 million, with an EPS of C$1.92 [1]. Valuation and Returns - The report indicates a forecast price appreciation of -5.3% and a forecast dividend yield of 2.8%, leading to an expected stock return of -2.5% [2]. - The price target reflects a 24% premium to the average Utility P/E of 19.3x based on the 2026E EPS of C$2.18 [4]. Industry Outlook - The industry structure and regulatory environment facing Hydro One are rated as stable, with a score of 3 on a scale of 1 to 5 [6]. - The consensus EPS forecast is expected to remain in line with previous estimates, indicating no significant surprises anticipated [6].

Global Research and Evidence Lab 14 August 2024 First Read Progressive Corporation July 2024: PIF Better; underlying loss ratio below consensus How will the stock react? A: We expect a positive reaction to the better-than-expected PIF growth in July while the underlying loss ratio was a little worse than consensus expectations (but beat UBSe). PIF growth accelerated sequentially and was better than expected. PGR should continue to gain market share in the near term as it loosens underwriting restrictions qu ...

Global Research and Evidence Lab 14 August 2024 Brazilian Utilities Daily Current Opening of the free market may be 'immediate' after approval of reform The Minister of Mines and Energy, Mr. Alexandre Silveira, said that the structural measures will come through a PL, which should be presented in September. In July, Mr. Silveira had promised the regulation, which could come through a Provisional Measure (MP), for August. One of the foundations of the text of the bill will be the long-awaited full opening of ...

Global Research and Evidence Lab 14 August 2024 First Read Serena Energia SA 2Q24 - Weak winds driving results Q: How did the results compare vs expectations? Serena reported results that were below the company's expectations given poorer wind resources. Serena also updated its 2024 guidance, now expecting a mid point guidance -5% below its guidance at the start of the year, adjusting to R$1,821mn from R$1,917mn vs. UBSe 2024 adjusted EBITDA of R$1,781mn. Serena in 1H24 has achieved 40% of the new FY guidan ...

Global Research and Evidence Lab 14 August 2024 Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc Rezdiffra Formulary Coverage Tracker Rezdiffra coverage substantially improves in July update (50% commercial coverage, consistent w/mgmt commentary). See inside for an overview of the data on coverage and formulary status plan by plan and how Rezdiffra coverage is changing over time. We update our proprietary monthly formulary coverage tracker for MDGL's Rezdiffra using Evidence Lab's US drug formulary monitor (access data here). ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the agribusiness sector in Latin America, but it provides insights into price pressures and production forecasts for key commodities such as soybeans, corn, and cotton, indicating a cautious outlook for prices in the near term [3][4][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights a sideways view for grain prices over the next 18 months, driven by strong crop conditions in the US and Brazil, alongside modest increases in crop areas and productivity [2][3]. - For soybeans, Brazil's production forecast for 2023/24 is steady at 147.4 million tons, while the USDA maintains its estimates for the US at 153.0 million tons for the same period [3]. - Corn production in Brazil is slightly adjusted down to 115.6 million tons for 2023/24, but export forecasts have increased significantly, leading to a sharp decrease in ending stocks [4]. - Cotton production in Brazil is forecasted to rise slightly to 3.644 million tons, with global production estimates being revised downward, particularly for the US [5]. Soybean Summary - Brazil's soybean production for 2023/24 is estimated at 147.4 million tons, with a modest increase in acreage and productivity expected for 2024/25 [3][7]. - The USDA has raised the global soybean production forecast for 2024/25, primarily due to increased estimates from the US [3][7]. - Price pressures are anticipated due to strong crop conditions and a potential increase in US-China trade tensions [3][11]. Corn Summary - Brazil's corn production for 2023/24 is slightly reduced to 115.6 million tons, with an increase in export forecasts to 36.0 million tons [4][17]. - The USDA's estimates for US corn production remain unchanged, while global production forecasts have been slightly adjusted down due to lower EU estimates [4][16]. - The report indicates that US corn prices may face pressure in the short to medium term due to strong crop conditions [4][22]. Cotton Summary - Brazil's cotton production is forecasted to increase to 3.644 million tons for 2023/24, driven by higher productivity [5][27]. - The USDA has made minor cuts to US cotton production estimates, which has contributed to a tighter global trade flow [5][26]. - Futures prices for cotton have risen due to improved market conditions and alleviated recession concerns in the US [5][31].

Global Research and Evidence Lab 14 August 2024 First Read Performance Food Group Company What's The Initial View On 4Q'24 Results? PFGC's 4Q'24 adj EPS $1.45 vs. UBSe $1.35; cons. $1.37; Acquiring Cheney Bros Altogether, we think PFGC's 4Q results reflect its ability to take market share, despite the increasingly challenging macro backdrop. It guided in line to slightly above where we believe market expectations were for adjusted EBITDA for FY'25 (based on our conversations with investors). Still, we belie ...

Global Research and Evidence Lab 14 August 2024 First Read Brinker International Inc Initial Thoughts on F4Q Results Strong F4Q sales beat, but disappointing flow-through; FY25 guidance mixed F4Q results included an adj EBITDA miss ($141.8MM vs Cons. $144.7MM), reflecting restaurant margin downside (15.2% vs. Cons. 15.5%) and higher stock-based compensation despite better than expected revenues ($1.21 BN vs Cons. $1.16 BN). Restaurant expenses were higher than expected (27.1% vs Cons. 26.7%) and G&A above C ...