Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Displaced Persons from Ukraine in Moldova MOVING TOWARDS DURABLE SOLUTIONS July 2024 Public Disclosure Authorized © 2024 The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved. This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executi ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Angel Yeast is maintained as BUY with a target price of RMB 38.39, indicating a potential upside of 24% from the closing price of RMB 30.87 as of August 12, 2024 [8][9]. Core Insights - Angel Yeast reported 2Q24 earnings that exceeded expectations, with revenue and net profit showing significant year-on-year growth of 11.3% and 17.3% respectively. The company is expected to resume growth momentum due to increased demand in its main business and improved overseas performance [3][4]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) for 2Q24 rose by 0.3 percentage points year-on-year to 23.9%, attributed to faster revenue growth from high-margin products and declining molasses prices, which are expected to reduce cost pressures [5][6]. - The company has revised its earnings forecasts upward, projecting EPS of RMB 1.60, RMB 1.80, and RMB 2.07 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting a positive outlook on domestic demand recovery and overseas market expansion [5][6]. Revenue and Profit Performance - For 1H24, Angel Yeast's revenue reached RMB 7,180 million, with attributable net profit of RMB 690 million, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.9% and 3.2% respectively. The overseas revenue grew by 17.9% year-on-year, while domestic revenue saw a modest increase of 0.9% [3][4]. - The performance of various product segments showed mixed results, with yeast and deep processing products increasing by 8.8% year-on-year, while sugar and packaging segments experienced declines of 26.5% and 12.8% respectively [4]. Financial Projections - The financial outlook for Angel Yeast includes projected revenues of RMB 14,969 million, RMB 16,629 million, and RMB 18,364 million for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, indicating a steady growth trajectory [7][13]. - The company’s net profit is expected to reach RMB 1,390 million, RMB 1,565 million, and RMB 1,799 million for the same years, reflecting a positive growth trend [7][13].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for H-shares, suggesting they may have bottomed out due to several supportive factors [2][3][4] Core Insights - H-shares experienced an increase amid volatility, supported by a decline in the HSI short-selling ratio from 20% to 13%, better-than-expected earnings from leading pharmaceutical companies, easing external market pressures, and a rise in the RMB exchange rate [2] - The report highlights a rebound in H-share earnings growth since the end of 2022, particularly in the "greater consumption" sectors, with notable earnings improvements in pharmaceuticals and consumer services [3] - The ongoing summer travel boom and government policies aimed at expanding domestic demand are expected to sustain consumption momentum, although price cuts have been observed in the travel sector [4] Summary by Sections H-Shares Performance - H-shares have shown resilience with narrowed net outflows of foreign capital and increased net inflows of southbound capital, indicating improved liquidity [2] - The report anticipates defensive attributes in H-share valuations in the short term, suggesting a focus on sectors sensitive to domestic demand and USD liquidity [6] Sector Analysis - The "greater consumption" sectors, particularly pharmaceuticals and consumer services, have seen significant earnings growth, with over 30% of companies in these sectors reporting improved earnings [3] - Midstream materials have faced pressure, likely due to reduced sales volumes and prices in cement and building materials [3] Economic Indicators - Recent economic data from the US has eased recession concerns, contributing to a stabilization in US stocks and a reduction in net outflows from H-shares [5] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring upcoming economic data, including the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium and US non-farm payrolls, for future market direction [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for China Hongqiao (1378 HK) with a target price of HK$12.80, indicating a potential upside of 31% from the current price [38]. Core Viewpoints - The report argues that the recent price consolidation of aluminum is overdone, with an 18% decline in price since late May attributed to China's economic slowdown and seasonal factors. However, the global spot market remains tight, as evidenced by a significant increase in the Japanese ingot premium [1][9]. - Solid demand for aluminum persists, particularly from sectors such as electric vehicles (EVs), power grids, and solar power, while supply faces structural risks due to capacity constraints in China and limited growth in overseas production [2][10]. - The report projects a positive outlook for aluminum prices, forecasting a 7% growth in 2024 and an 8% growth in 2025, with prices expected to reach US$2,415/t and US$2,620/t respectively [11][19]. Summary by Sections Aluminum Price Trends - The LME aluminum price has seen an 18% decline since late May, but the report suggests this is excessive given the tight supply conditions in the global market [9][10]. - The report notes that the aluminum ingot premium has risen significantly, indicating ongoing supply tightness [1][9]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - China's aluminum demand remains robust, with a 6.1% YoY increase in apparent consumption in 1H24, driven by sectors such as transportation and power [19][21]. - Supply constraints are highlighted, with China's total aluminum production capacity capped and utilization rates reaching record highs, limiting future growth [18][17]. Company-Specific Insights - China Hongqiao is identified as a cost-competitive player in the aluminum sector, benefiting from its vertical integration and access to low-cost hydropower [38]. - The report emphasizes Hongqiao's strong balance sheet and higher profitability forecasts compared to its peers, making it a preferred investment choice [38][37].

Healthcare and Biotech | 12 August 2024 Innovent Biologics | 1801 HK A true leader in innovative bio-drugs ▶ Strong 2Q24 revenue improves sequentially ▶ Net loss continues to narrow YoY from 2024F ▶ Innovent stays on our medical sector watchlist Strong 50% YoY product revenue growth in 2Q24 and 18% QoQ sequential growth. On 8 Aug 2024, Innovent announced another stand-out quarter, notably total product revenue, which had climbed over 50% YoY to exceed RMB2.0b (2Q23: up 35% YoY), with sequential growth of 18 ...

Consumer Staples | 12 August 2024 Anita Chu (852) 3911 8252 anitachu@ccbintl.com Anita Du (852) 3911 8013 anitadu@ccbintl.com downgrade from Outperform) Trading data 52-week rangeHK$12.56-27.75 Market capital (H-share, m)53.599 Shares outstanding (m)3.935 Free float (%)75 273M average daily T/O (m share) 3M average daily T/O (US$ m)50 0Expected 12-month return (%) Source: Bloomberg, CCBIS estimates Share price vs HSCEI HKS 35 30 25 20 15 Source: Bloomberg Expect a weak 1H24F ▶ OPM expansion target is hardly ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for By-health is maintained as BUY with a target price of RMB15.37, indicating a potential upside of 31% from the closing price of RMB11.71 as of August 9, 2024 [7][8]. Core Insights - By-health's revenue and net profit have declined significantly in the first half of 2024, with revenue at RMB4,610 million (-17.6% year-on-year) and attributable net profit at RMB890 million (-42.3% year-on-year) [3][4]. - The decline is attributed to a high base from the previous year and challenges in the company's omni-channel strategy, which includes a diverse product lineup facing competition across various e-commerce platforms [3][4]. - The company plans to focus on its main brand and Life-Space, consolidating offline sales channels and enhancing product differentiation to expand into lower-tier markets [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - For 1H24, By-health's gross profit margin (GPM) fell to 68.6%, down 1.8 percentage points year-on-year, with a notable decline in the second quarter to 66.8% [4]. - The sales expense ratio increased to 39.5% in 1H24, primarily due to higher brand promotion investments and increased platform expenses [4]. - The company has revised its earnings forecasts downward, estimating EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 at RMB0.70, RMB0.83, and RMB0.97 respectively [5][6]. Revenue and Profit Forecasts - Revenue projections for By-health are as follows: RMB8,447 million for 2024, RMB9,268 million for 2025, and RMB10,032 million for 2026, reflecting a decline in 2024 followed by growth in subsequent years [6]. - Net profit estimates are projected at RMB1,188 million for 2024, RMB1,419 million for 2025, and RMB1,648 million for 2026, indicating a recovery trend after a significant drop in 2024 [6]. Market Position and Strategy - By-health continues to strengthen its brand presence despite facing short-term revenue adjustments due to changing consumer sentiment and increased competition [4]. - The company is focused on improving operational quality and refining its strategy to adapt to the evolving market landscape [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tasly Pharmaceutical is maintained at OVERWEIGHT, with a target price of RMB17.30, indicating a potential upside of 25% from the closing price of RMB13.85 as of August 9, 2024 [3][10][30]. Core Insights - The controlling shareholder of Tasly, Tasly Group, plans to transfer 28% of its share capital (approximately 418 million shares) to CR Sanjiu for a total consideration of around RMB6,212 million. This acquisition is expected to enhance CR Sanjiu's industrial chain and leverage Tasly's expertise in traditional Chinese medicine and innovative pharmaceuticals [3][4]. - Tasly is projected to achieve attributable net profits of RMB1.18 billion, RMB1.31 billion, and RMB1.46 billion for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 10%, 11%, and 11% [3][4]. - The report anticipates stable business fundamentals for Tasly in 2024, with steady growth in its traditional Chinese medicine segment and a rally in sales volume for chemical drugs driven by the VBP program [5][6]. Summary by Sections Business Overview - Tasly is recognized as a leader in traditional Chinese medicine prescription drugs and has a strong R&D pipeline with 98 products in development. The company has developed blockbuster products such as Danshen and Yangxue Qingnao [4][5]. Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB8,593 million in 2022 to RMB10,506 million by 2026, with net profit projected to increase from a loss of RMB256.51 million in 2022 to RMB1,460 million in 2026 [8][15]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from a loss of RMB0.17 in 2022 to RMB0.98 in 2026 [8][15]. R&D and Innovation - Tasly has consistently invested in R&D, with annual expenses ranging from RMB600 million to RMB900 million since 2018, representing an R&D expense ratio of 5-10%. The company has independently developed over 20 novel TCM products, with several projects expected to submit NDAs starting in 2024-2025 [6][4]. Market Position - The acquisition by CR Sanjiu is expected to reshape Tasly's competitive landscape, integrating management systems and potentially adjusting business practices from 2025 onwards [4][5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Wens Foodstuffs is "BUY" with a target price of RMB25.53, indicating a potential upside of 29% from the closing price of RMB19.78 as of August 12, 2024 [2][7]. Core Views - Wens Foodstuffs has experienced a significant rise in meat pig selling prices, with the average price reaching RMB18.95/kg in July, which is above the industry average. The estimated per-head profit for meat pigs is nearly RMB600 [2][3]. - The report anticipates buoyant demand for pigs and broilers in the second half of 2024 due to tight supply dynamics and an approaching peak consumption season, which is expected to sustain earnings growth for Wens [2][4]. - The financial projections for Wens indicate a net profit of RMB10.0 billion in 2024, increasing to RMB13.4 billion in 2025, and RMB13.1 billion in 2026, with a book value per share (BVPS) of RMB6.48, RMB8.29, and RMB10.16 respectively [2][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB89.92 billion in 2023 to RMB104.68 billion in 2024, and further to RMB125.67 billion in 2025 [5]. - The net profit is expected to recover from a loss of RMB6.39 billion in 2023 to RMB10.04 billion in 2024, and reach RMB13.36 billion in 2025 [5]. - The diluted EPS is forecasted to improve from -0.96 in 2023 to 1.51 in 2024, and 2.01 in 2025 [5]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights a potential contraction in hog supply in the second half of 2024, which is expected to drive up prices and enhance profitability for Wens [2][4]. - The demand for yellow-feather broilers is projected to increase due to early-stage destocking and seasonal consumption patterns, contributing to a favorable pricing environment [2][4]. Competitive Position - Wens Foodstuffs is noted for its solid cost advantage in hog breeding, which is expected to further enhance its per-head profit margins [2][4]. - The company is likely to continue making progress in breeding, production, and management, which will contribute to a steady decline in breeding costs [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report indicates an optimistic outlook on China's export growth, suggesting resilience in the face of global trade dynamics [2][17]. Core Insights - China's export value in USD terms increased by 4% year-on-year (yoy) in the first seven months of 2024, with a notable growth in export value in RMB terms (6.7%) and export volume (approximately 15%) [2][17]. - The trade surplus in 7M24 rose by 11% yoy, contributing positively to GDP and corporate profit growth [2][17]. - The report highlights the significant role of intermediate goods in China's export structure, which accounted for about 50% of total exports in 2023 [20][26]. Summary by Sections I. Overseas Production Expansion - A Perspective of Intermediate Goods Trade - Intermediate goods exports surged post-2020, making up half of total exports in 2023, with double-digit annualized growth in semi-finished products and components [5][20]. - Key categories of intermediate goods include telecommunications equipment, electronic components, textiles, steel, batteries, and auto parts, which collectively represent over 70% of exports [5][22]. - The share of intermediate goods exports to Southeast Asia has increased significantly, while exports to the US have contracted since 2018 [22][34]. II. Progress in Overseas Plant Construction - A Perspective of Raw Material and Machinery Exports - Southeast Asia remains the primary destination for China's construction machinery exports, with notable growth in exports to Brazil and Mexico in 2024 [7][55]. - China's steel exports have seen robust growth, particularly to Southeast Asia and the Middle East, with a significant increase in construction machinery exports reflecting overseas investment [51][58]. - The report notes a rebound in the export volume of construction machinery, indicating a fresh round of overseas expansion by Chinese enterprises [53][56]. III. ASEAN and Latin America as Destinations for Overseas Expansion - In 2023, China's overseas direct investment (ODI) achieved structural growth, with ASEAN and Latin America receiving the most investment, accounting for 28% and 25% of ODI, respectively [9][75]. - The report emphasizes the increasing trend of Chinese investment in the Middle East and Africa, alongside a decline in investment in the US and Europe [75][77]. - The Belt and Road Initiative is expected to enhance cooperation between China and countries in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, further supporting overseas expansion [75][76].