19 December 2025 | 1:02AM HKT Equity Research CHINA TRANSPORTATION 2026 Outlook: Staying positive on Airlines and Tankers; Turning bearish on Containers Our analysis points to 3 areas of mispricing/opportunities: 1) higher international demand for Airlines, while supply constraint remains, leading to Airlines reaching above-cycle ROEs of 22% in 2027. Although Japan-related risks are to be watched in 1H in particular – we remain positive on Airlines, 2) Supply resumption in Containership leads us to turn bea ...

Core Viewpoint - Qatar Airways is divesting its 9.57% stake in Cathay Pacific Airways through a share buyback valued at $896 million, marking the end of its eight-year involvement with the airline [1][2]. Group 1: Transaction Details - Qatar Airways will sell all of its holdings in Cathay Pacific, which represents 9.57% of the airline's stock [2]. - The buyback plan is subject to shareholder approval [2]. - Cathay Pacific's shares increased by 4.2% on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange following the announcement [1]. Group 2: Strategic Implications - The sale reflects Cathay Pacific's commitment to portfolio management and long-term growth, as stated by its CEO Badr Mohammed al-Meer [3]. - Analysts suggest that Qatar Airways' decision to divest is influenced by its limited strategic influence due to its minority stake [4]. - The transaction consolidates ownership among Cathay's key shareholders, Swire Pacific and Air China, enhancing their strategic control over the airline [4]. Group 3: Historical Context - Qatar Airways acquired its stake in Cathay Pacific in 2017 for approximately $662 million during a period when Cathay was facing financial difficulties [5]. - Cathay Pacific reported a profit of $1.2 billion in the last fiscal year, indicating a significant turnaround from its previous losses [5].

From an onboard fire to a plane crash and shattered cockpit windscreen, a busy Monday for aviation investigators in Hong Kong. An Emirates Air 747 cargo plane arriving from Dubai lost control after landing, crashing through a fence and striking a security vehicle before sliding into the sea. All four air crew members rescued, but two people in the car were killed.Meanwhile, over China, fire and smoke poured from an overhead bin after Air China says a lithium ion battery spontaneously ignited during a flight ...

An Air China flight made an emergency landing in Shanghai, the airline said, after a lithium battery in a passenger’s carry-on bag spontaneously ignited. No injuries were reported. For more context and news coverage of the most important stories of our day, click here: https://www.nbcnews.com » Subscribe to NBC News: http://nbcnews.to/SubscribeToNBC » Watch more NBC video: http://bit.ly/MoreNBCNews NBC News Digital is a collection of innovative and powerful news brands that deliver compelling, diverse and e ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on China's Inbound Tourism Industry Overview - The focus is on China's tourism industry, particularly the growth potential of inbound tourism, which is currently dominated by domestic and outbound demand but is expected to become a significant earnings driver in the next three years [1][4][63]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Inbound Tourism Growth**: Inbound tourism is projected to increase from 11% of China's tourism revenue to 18% within five years, with hotels expected to see the highest revenue exposure, reaching over 20% on average by 2030 [4][77]. - **Service Exports Performance**: China's service exports grew by 14% in the first eight months of 2025, with tourism service exports surging by 56% year-on-year, recovering to 150% of pre-COVID levels [3][39]. - **Infrastructure and Policy Support**: Investments in infrastructure, clean energy, and cultural experiences are enhancing the attractiveness of China as a leisure travel destination. The introduction of the K1 visa aims to attract young talent, further boosting business travel [2][19]. - **Market Dynamics**: The report highlights that low-tier cities are becoming increasingly attractive for inbound tourists, with cities like Hangzhou showing robust growth in inbound tourist numbers [3][4]. Financial Projections - **Revenue Exposure**: Hotels are expected to have the highest revenue exposure to inbound tourism, while OTAs, airlines, and duty-free sectors are projected to see 5-10% revenue exposure in five years [4][78]. - **Earnings Growth**: The report anticipates a 19% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in inbound tourism spending in USD terms over the next decade, driven by increased visitation and longer stays [39][84]. Key Beneficiaries - **Top Stock Picks**: The report identifies ten stocks that could benefit from the growth in inbound tourism, with Trip.com (TCOM.O) ranked as the most attractive, followed by Air China (0753.HK), Shanghai Airport (600009.SS), and CTG Duty-Free (1880.HK) [5][11][70]. - **Segment Analysis**: OTAs are seen as key enablers for inbound tourism, with Trip.com positioned to benefit significantly due to its international operations [57][90]. Additional Insights - **Healthcare and Shopping**: The inbound healthcare sector is expanding, with significant demand for premium medical services. The retail sector is also experiencing growth, driven by rising consumer demand for premium goods and duty-free shopping [61][60]. - **Government Initiatives**: Recent government measures aim to support service consumption, with inbound travel identified as a key growth driver for the economy [12][25]. - **Challenges and Opportunities**: Despite trade frictions, China's economic ties with emerging markets are strengthening, presenting growth opportunities for inbound travel [25][30]. Conclusion - The outlook for China's inbound tourism is positive, with significant growth expected in the coming years. Key sectors such as hotels, OTAs, and airlines are poised to benefit from this trend, supported by government initiatives and changing consumer preferences.

Summary of Key Points from the Travel & Leisure Industry Expert Call Industry Overview - The travel industry in China is experiencing healthy demand, particularly during the recent Golden Week holidays, with notable activity in both first-tier and lower-tier cities [1][3] - The hotel industry is seeing positive trends in Average Daily Rate (ADR) and Revenue Per Available Room (RevPar), with increases in the mid to high-single digits during the holidays [1][3] Core Insights - **Travel Demand**: Overall travel demand remains robust, with significant participation from families in lower-tier cities during the Mid-Autumn Festival [3] - **Hotel Performance**: Average occupancy rates for Jinjiang's hotels in tier-3 and below cities reached 91.7%, indicating strong performance in these areas [3] - **Supply Growth**: There is ongoing pressure on hotel RevPar due to continued supply growth, particularly from franchisees in the mid-to-upscale segments [1][9] - **OTA Competition**: The competition among Online Travel Agencies (OTAs) is described as benign, with smaller operators struggling to compete against larger players like TCOM, which holds a ~55% market share in hotel bookings [9] Recommendations - **Preferred Stocks**: The report recommends investments in hotel stocks such as H World and Atour, anticipating better RevPar trends due to reduced competition and slower supply growth [2] - **Macau Market**: Stocks like Sands China and Galaxy are favored due to expected benefits from wealth effects and low base comparisons for Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) until the end of Q1 2026 [2] - **Air Travel**: Buy ratings are also given to TCOM and Air China, which are expected to benefit from an increase in long-haul outbound travel and rising airfares [2] Additional Insights - **Market Dynamics**: The expert noted a shift in outbound travel preferences from "tick-box travel" to more personalized small-group experiences, typically involving 9-12 people [8] - **Future Outlook**: The expert does not foresee the typical seasonal decline in travel demand post-Labor Day, attributing this to a modest recovery in business travel since September [8] - **OTA Market Share**: Fliggy has seen significant growth in market share, particularly in outbound travel, with a 48% increase in GMV and a 78% increase in domestic hotel room nights year-over-year during the Golden Week [9] Conclusion - The travel and leisure industry in China is poised for continued growth, supported by healthy demand and evolving consumer preferences. Investment opportunities exist in hotel stocks and OTAs, particularly those that can adapt to changing market dynamics and consumer behaviors [1][2][9]

Partnerships & Expansion - Webus International ($WETO) partners with Air China to offer services to over 60 million PhoenixMiles members [1] Cryptocurrency & Blockchain Integration - Webus plans to integrate XRP and RLUSD payments into its Wetour platform [1] - The integration aims to enable faster settlements, tokenized rewards, and blockchain-enabled vouchers linked to loyalty benefits [1] - The integration is pending regulatory approval [1] Company Strategy - Webus International recently launched an XRP treasury strategy [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Inbound Travel in China - **Growth Potential**: Inbound visitation is projected to generate US$2-4 trillion in cumulative revenue over the next decade, despite uncertainties in domestic demand and trade frictions [1][3][4]. Core Insights - **Tourism Service Exports**: China's tourism service exports grew by 67% year-over-year (YoY) in the first half of 2025, significantly outpacing the 14% growth in total service exports and 6% in product exports [2][39]. - **GDP Contribution**: Inbound tourism receipts contributed 0.5% to China's GDP in 2024, up from 0.3% in 2023, but still below the ~1% level seen before COVID-19 [2]. - **Visitor Growth Factors**: Key drivers for increased inbound tourism include longer stays, a higher percentage of foreign visitors compared to those from Hong Kong and Macau, and a potential rise in business travelers [3][4]. Airline Industry Insights - **Airlines' Performance**: In the first half of 2025, international routes accounted for over 60% of the increase in China's air passenger turnover compared to the same period in 2024 [5][31]. - **Pricing Power Challenges**: Domestic demand remains depressed, delaying the expected pricing power inflection for airlines. The current high utilization rates have not translated into higher pricing elasticity [5][32][36]. - **Sustainability Concerns**: The aggressive expansion into international routes by Chinese airlines is viewed as unsustainable without generating profits, necessitating "anti-involution" efforts to avoid deflationary pressures [5][33][34]. Visitor Demographics and Trends - **Visitor Recovery**: Foreign visitation in Beijing has recovered to 90% of pre-COVID levels, with a 120% recovery for foreign tourists overall [12][61]. - **Visa-Free Entries**: Over 70% of foreign visitors entered China visa-free in 2Q25, a significant increase from approximately 50% before the relaxation of visa requirements [57][75]. Economic and Policy Factors - **Shopping as a Growth Driver**: China's potential as a shopping destination is highlighted, driven by global trade barriers and inflation pressures, making Chinese consumer goods more attractive [28][29]. - **Government Initiatives**: The Chinese government has implemented several policies to facilitate inbound travel, including visa relaxations, improved payment systems, and enhanced digital services for tourists [18][29][83]. Revenue Forecast Adjustments - **Revenue Growth Projections**: The base case for 10-year cumulative revenue remains largely unchanged, while the bull case is adjusted down by 6% compared to previous estimates [21][96]. - **CAGR Expectations**: A 19% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for inbound revenue is deemed achievable, supported by factors such as increased visitor spending and longer stays [24][98]. Conclusion - **Outlook**: The inbound travel sector in China is positioned for significant growth, driven by favorable government policies, increased international connectivity, and evolving consumer preferences. However, challenges remain in the airline industry and overall economic conditions that could impact recovery and growth trajectories.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a consistent sector preference, favoring sports brands, diversified retailers, dairy, beverages, and restaurants, while being less favorable towards apparel/footwear OEM, furniture, projectors, discretionary small kitchen appliances, jewelry, and non-super-premium spirits [11]. Core Insights - Consumption in China has shown signs of recovery, with retail sales growth improving to +4.6% year-over-year in 1Q25, and companies in the coverage reporting an average growth of 14% compared to 12% in 4Q24 [1]. - Despite the positive growth, companies remain cautious about the outlook due to ongoing volatility and external factors such as US-China tariff developments impacting consumer confidence [2][1]. - Margin performance in 1Q25 was mixed, with some companies benefiting from favorable raw material prices and cost control, while others faced risks from marketing investments and competition [1]. - Companies are generally maintaining disciplined pricing strategies and healthier inventory levels, although some categories like spirits and sportswear are experiencing challenges due to demand pressures [1]. - The impact of tariffs on earnings and consumer sentiment is significant, with companies cautious about the second half of 2025 amid uncertainties [2]. Summary by Sections Key Findings from 1Q25 Results - Retail sales growth improved to +4.6% year-over-year, with coverage companies reporting an average growth of 14% [1]. - Labor Day consumption growth accelerated, indicating a potential rebound in consumer spending [1]. Expectations for 2Q25 - Companies are cautious about the outlook for 2H25 due to tariff uncertainties, although those with market share gain opportunities may be more resilient [2]. Sector/Stock Preferences - Preferred sectors include sports brands, diversified retailers, dairy, beverages, and restaurants, while least preferred sectors include apparel/footwear OEM and furniture [11]. Macro Data Points - The report notes that macroeconomic data points are solid, but ongoing tariff developments and policy support need to be monitored [11]. Valuation Methodology - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the valuation methodology and the potential risks associated with it [11].

Core Viewpoint - Chinese airlines have started returning Boeing aircraft to the U.S. in response to the U.S. imposing 145% tariffs on Chinese goods, which has led to a halt in further deliveries of Boeing jets to China [1][4]. Group 1: Impact on Deliveries - A Boeing 737 Max recently returned to Seattle, marking the beginning of aircraft returns from China [1]. - Three 737 Max 8 jets that were prepared for delivery to Chinese airlines were recalled to the U.S. last week [2]. - A Boeing jet intended for Xiamen Airlines was seen landing back at Boeing's production hub, indicating a disruption in the delivery process [3]. Group 2: Domestic Business Effects - The halt in Boeing deliveries has affected domestic business, with a Chinese aircraft lessor facing challenges as another airline backed away from its commitment to take delivery [9]. - Analysts suggest that airline CEOs may prefer to defer plane deliveries rather than incur duties, which could negatively impact Chinese airline operations [9]. Group 3: Boeing's Market Position - Boeing, a significant U.S. exporter, is facing challenges in the Chinese market, where it aimed to compete with Airbus [11]. - Year-to-date deliveries show that Boeing has delivered 18 aircraft to nine airlines in China, with major airlines planning to take delivery of a total of 179 Boeing planes between 2025-2027 [11]. - The current situation follows a nearly five-year import freeze on 737 MAX jets in China due to safety concerns stemming from two fatal crashes [12].