IN, SCARLET FU WITH VONNIE WHEN THE S&P 500 IS NEAR RECORD HIGHS BUT HASN'T MOVED A LOT THIS AFTERNOON. VONNIE: ALMOST AT 6300 FEET FLAT ON THE S&P 500 BUT 50% OF THE COMPANIES IN IT ARE HIGHER AND 50% OR LOWER. WE HAD COMMENTS FROM CHRIS WALLER ON TELEVISION TODAY REITERATING HIS CASE FOR A RATE CUT AND THE PRESIDENT IS PUSHING FOR A MINIMUM TARIFF. YOU HEARD THE PRESIDENT TALKING ABOUT TARIFFS ON BRICS AND OTHER COUNTRIES. PROFIT TAKING AS WELL, GIVEN THAT IT IS FRIDAY. SCARLET: LET'S BEGIN OUR MARKET DIS ...

Core Viewpoint - The earnings report from Goldman Sachs serves as a dual indicator for the stock market, providing both warnings and opportunities for investors [4][12]. Group 1: Earnings Insights - Goldman Sachs reported a significant 71% year-over-year increase in M&A fees, reaching $1.2 billion, indicating robust activity in the investment banking sector [5]. - Equity issuance fees hit a record $4.3 billion, up over 36% year-over-year, suggesting that larger companies may be trading at overextended valuations [8][9]. Group 2: Market Implications - The increase in M&A activity suggests potential opportunities in small to mid-cap stocks, particularly as the Russell 2000 index underperforms compared to larger indices [8][12]. - The disparity in performance between Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan Chase, with Goldman outperforming by over 15%, indicates positive market sentiment towards Goldman’s earnings [11]. Group 3: Investment Considerations - Investors should be cautious if heavily invested in large-cap stocks due to the record equity issuance, which may signal a market correction [9][13]. - The 12-month stock price forecast for Goldman Sachs is $649.29, representing an 8.11% downside from the current price of $706.62 [7].

Market Overview & Trends - Small cap market shows signs of life with a good month-to-date performance versus large caps [2] - The small cap market is considered extraordinarily cheap with a good underlying economic environment [3] - Expectation of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in the back half of the year could act as a tailwind [3] - M&A activity has been quiet this year but backlogs are building, expected to materialize in the second half of the year [4] - Consumer spending has been strong, particularly on air travel, but a handoff to other sectors like tech, software, and semiconductors is anticipated [5][6] - Aerospace and defense sectors are performing well, with expectations of more IPO activity in the space sector [7] Company Specific Opportunities - Cheesecake Factory is highlighted as a Gen Z hotspot with good traffic trends expected throughout the summer [8] - Piper is expected to be an M&A story, benefiting from general capital markets recovery and a solid municipal bond business [9] - Site Time is mentioned as a company benefiting from increased connectivity demands within data centers, driven by AI development [15] Risk Factors & Mitigation - Companies have largely adjusted to high interest rates, which have been in place for almost 3 years [10] - Domestic focus of small caps is seen as an advantage, as companies have tightened supply chains and focused on the US market after previous tariff challenges [12][13] - Prior adjustments to semiconductor sourcing mitigate concerns about current tariffs, though future tariffs could potentially cap growth [17][18]

Core Insights - The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) reported second-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share of $10.91, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 15.7% and increasing 26.6% year-over-year [1][10] - Net revenues for GS rose 15% to $14.6 billion, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 8.1% [1][9] Investment Banking Performance - The strong performance in investment banking (IB) was a primary driver of Goldman's results, with global mergers and acquisitions activity rebounding in the last month of the quarter [2] - Net revenues in the Global Banking & Markets division increased 24% year-over-year to $10.1 billion, with advisory revenues soaring 71% to $1.2 billion [3] - Overall, IB fees rose 26.6% to $2.19 billion in the second quarter [3][9] Trading Business - GS's trading business also performed well, with net revenues in Equities increasing 36% year-over-year and fixed income, currency, and commodities (FICC) trading revenues rising 9% [6] - Financing revenues in both equities and FICC reached record highs [6][9] Asset & Wealth Management - Despite a 3% year-over-year decline in net revenues from Asset & Wealth Management, the company achieved a record asset under supervision of $3.3 trillion [7] Operating Expenses - Total operating expenses for GS increased 8% year-over-year to $9.2 billion, primarily due to higher compensation and benefits expenses [8] Net Income - The company's net income improved 22% from the prior-year quarter to $3.7 billion, reflecting robust top-line growth [10]

Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs Research anticipates tariff rates to continue climbing throughout the year [2] - The market is pricing in a gradual increase in tariffs, with companies managing margins and sustaining earnings growth [3] - Continued earnings growth is considered the most important factor for the market [3] - There's a possibility of companies passing on tariff costs, potentially leading to a slight increase in inflation [3][4] - The S&P 500 target is 6,600 by year-end, representing approximately 5% upside [5] Risk Assessment - The biggest risk to the market is interest rates, with uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's actions [5] - Elevated uncertainty means the distribution of risks for asset prices is still pretty wide [6] Sector Performance - AI software basket is up more than 30% year-to-date, with a continued strong outlook [6] - Market breadth is narrow, with the median S&P 500 company still more than 10% below its high [7][8] - A catch-up in market performance is more likely than a continuation of the current outperformance [8]

>> Welcome back to Squawk Box. President Trump saying he has no plans to fire Fed Chair Jay Powell, though he has been toying quite publicly with that idea. Senator Elizabeth Warren has been defending the chairman's role at the FOMC.And Senator Warren joins us this morning. She is the lead Democrat on the Banking Committee. Good morning to you.We just had a guest on in Kevin Warsh. Some someone who folks have speculated about potentially taking that job. He openly talked about the idea of regime change.And ...

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. GS reported second-quarter results that beat analyst expectations on Wednesday, boosted by robust gains in its global banking and trading divisions.Net revenue rose 15% year over year to $14.58 billion, topping the consensus estimate of $13.36 billion, though it declined 3% from the prior quarter.GAAP earnings came in at $10.91 per share, up from $8.62 a year ago and above the $9.48 consensus. First-half EPS rose to $25.07 from $20.21 a year earlier.David Solomon, Chairman and CEO o ...

Why don't we start off with yesterday. Uh, you know, there was reports from a White House source that the president was very close to firing J. Pal.The president then spoke during a news conference saying that's highly unlikely. Um, just that drama and we saw the action in the bond market, the equity market and with the dollar. Does that drama change the view of US markets right now.Look, it it it matters. Um, but uh I'm not sure the thing that matters most. um when you're looking at what's really driving m ...

for more on the markets and how investors uh may want to position themselves in the second half of the year. We are joined now by Charmine Mosa Mosavar. I always I always butcher your name.It kills me. It kills me. Uh kills me.It I know it's it's it's horrible. Chief investment officer uh for Goldman Sachs Wealth Management. Good morning to you. Good morning.We've got I'm happy to go by my first name. That's okay, too. You can just say we've known each other a long time and every time I You know what it is. ...

Company Overview - Nebius Group has experienced a significant stock increase of 92% as of July 16, 2025, driven by a large addressable market and positive sentiment from Wall Street [1] - The company specializes in providing artificial intelligence (AI) cloud infrastructure, allowing customers to rent powerful GPUs for various AI tasks [2] Growth Potential - Nebius has shown rapid growth, with its revenue in Q1 2025 increasing nearly fivefold year-over-year to $55.3 million [7] - The annualized run-rate revenue (ARR) surged by 684% in Q1 to $249 million, with management projecting an ARR of $750 million to $1 billion by the end of 2025 [8] - The company has expanded its data center locations from one to five in just three quarters and is exploring new sites globally [8] Financial Health - Nebius boasts a strong balance sheet with over $1.4 billion in cash and only $187 million in debt, enabling further expansion of data center capacity [8] - The company forecasts revenue between $500 million and $700 million for 2025, a substantial increase from last year's revenue of $117 million [8] Market Opportunity - The cloud AI infrastructure market presents a $400 billion opportunity, indicating significant growth potential for Nebius [9] Analyst Sentiment - Goldman Sachs rates Nebius as a buy, with a 12-month price target of $68, suggesting approximately 30% upside from current levels [11][12] - Despite a high sales multiple of 68 times, the company's growth trajectory justifies its valuation, with analysts considering it undervalued based on future growth potential [13] Investment Appeal - Nebius is positioned as an attractive option for growth-oriented investors, with expectations of continued stock market upside [15]