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分组1 - Estee Lauder reported quarterly earnings of $0.09 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.08 per share, compared to $0.64 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of +12.50% [1] - The company posted revenues of $3.41 billion for the quarter ended June 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.27%, but down from $3.87 billion year-over-year [2] - Estee Lauder has outperformed the S&P 500, with shares increasing about 19.9% since the beginning of the year, compared to the S&P 500's gain of 9% [3] 分组2 - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.22 on revenues of $3.33 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $2.13 on revenues of $14.61 billion [7] - The Zacks Industry Rank indicates that the Cosmetics industry is currently in the bottom 24% of over 250 Zacks industries, which may impact stock performance [8]

[Fiscal 2025 Performance Overview](index=1&type=section&id=THE%20EST%C3%89E%20LAUDER%20COMPANIES%20REPORTS%20FISCAL%202025%20RESULTS) [Financial Highlights](index=1&type=section&id=FISCAL%202025%20SELECT%20FINANCIAL%20RESULTS) Fiscal 2025 net sales declined 8% to **$14.33 billion**, leading to a **$785 million** operating loss and reduced operating cash flow Fiscal 2025 Select Financial Results | ($ millions, except per share) | 2025 | 2024 | Percentage Change | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Net Sales ($ millions)** | **$14,326** | **$15,608** | **(8)%** | | Organic Net Sales, Non-GAAP ($ millions) | $14,351 | $15,609 | (8)% | | Operating (Loss) Income ($ millions) | $(785) | $970 | (100+)% | | Adjusted Operating Income, Non-GAAP ($ millions) | $1,146 | $1,588 | (28)% | | Diluted Net (Loss) Earnings Per Common Share ($) | $(3.15) | $1.08 | (100+)% | | Adjusted Diluted Net Earnings Per Common Share, Non-GAAP ($) | $1.51 | $2.59 | (42)% | - Operating margin declined to **(5.5)%** from **6.2%**, primarily due to an **$815 million** increase in goodwill and other intangible asset impairment charges and **$362 million** in restructuring charges Adjusted operating margin also contracted to **8.0%** from **10.2%**[5](index=5&type=chunk) - Net cash flows from operating activities decreased to **$1.27 billion** from **$2.36 billion**, mainly due to lower pre-tax earnings and an unfavorable change in operating assets and liabilities, including the impact from a significant inventory reduction in the prior year[5](index=5&type=chunk) - Dividends paid were reduced to **$618 million** from **$947 million** in the prior year, following a decision in the second quarter of fiscal 2025 to adjust the dividend to a more appropriate payout ratio[5](index=5&type=chunk) [Operational and Strategic Highlights](index=3&type=section&id=BEAUTY%20GAINS%20AND%20OPERATIONAL%20HIGHLIGHTS) Despite headwinds, the company gained market share in China and Japan, expanded online reach, and increased consumer-facing investments via cost reductions - Achieved prestige beauty market share gains in mainland China and Japan In the U.S., share trends improved significantly in the second half of the fiscal year[8](index=8&type=chunk) - Expanded consumer reach by launching eight brands on Amazon's U.S. Premium Beauty store and expanding online distribution in Southeast Asia on platforms like Shopee and TikTok Shop[8](index=8&type=chunk) - Increased consumer-facing investments by approximately **400 basis points** as a percentage of sales, funded by a **6%** reduction in non-consumer-facing costs through the PRGP[9](index=9&type=chunk) - Advanced technology and innovation by opening a new BioTech Hub in Belgium, collaborating with MIT, and forming strategic AI partnerships with Microsoft and Adobe to drive operational efficiencies[9](index=9&type=chunk) [Fiscal 2025 Segment Performance](index=5&type=section&id=FISCAL%202025%20RESULTS%20BY%20PRODUCT%20CATEGORY%20AND%20BY%20REGION) [Performance by Product Category](index=5&type=section&id=Results%20by%20Product%20Category) All product categories except Fragrance saw organic net sales declines, with Skin Care down **12%** and Makeup and Fragrance reporting operating losses FY2025 Net Sales & Operating Income by Product Category (Reported) | ($ millions) | Net Sales 2025 ($ millions) | Net Sales 2024 ($ millions) | % Change | Operating (Loss) Income 2025 ($ millions) | Operating Income 2024 ($ millions) | % Change | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Skin Care** | $6,962 | $7,908 | (12)% | $574 | $735 | (22)% | | **Makeup** | $4,205 | $4,470 | (6)% | $(441) | $93 | (100+)% | | **Fragrance** | $2,491 | $2,487 | 0% | $(378) | $265 | (100+)% | | **Hair Care** | $565 | $629 | (10)% | $(41) | $(52) | 21% | - Skin Care organic net sales fell **12%**, driven by declines in Estée Lauder and La Mer, particularly in the Asia travel retail business due to subdued Chinese consumer sentiment and retailer strategy shifts[12](index=12&type=chunk)[14](index=14&type=chunk) - Makeup organic net sales decreased **5%**, primarily due to declines from M·A·C and Estée Lauder This was partially offset by growth in Clinique, which benefited from its launch on Amazon's U.S. Premium Beauty store[14](index=14&type=chunk) - Fragrance organic net sales were flat, with strong double-digit growth from Le Labo offset by a decline from TOM FORD, which experienced retail softness in North America[17](index=17&type=chunk) - Hair Care organic net sales decreased **10%**, driven by declines at Aveda due to softness in brick-and-mortar channels, which more than offset online growth from its Amazon launch[17](index=17&type=chunk) [Performance by Geographic Region](index=9&type=section&id=Results%20by%20Geographic%20Region) All geographic regions experienced organic net sales declines, with EMEA down **13%** due to travel retail and The Americas impacted by significant impairment charges FY2025 Net Sales & Operating Income by Geographic Region (Reported) | ($ millions) | Net Sales 2025 ($ millions) | Net Sales 2024 ($ millions) | % Change | Operating (Loss) Income 2025 ($ millions) | Operating Income 2024 ($ millions) | % Change | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **The Americas** | $4,411 | $4,581 | (4)% | $(918) | $34 | (100+)% | | **Europe, the Middle East & Africa** | $5,375 | $6,140 | (12)% | $610 | $836 | (27)% | | **Asia/Pacific** | $4,537 | $4,888 | (7)% | $9 | $224 | (96)% | - The overall **8%** organic net sales decrease was driven by a strong double-digit decline in the global travel retail business (part of EMEA), a mid-single-digit decline in mainland China, and a low-single-digit decline in North America[20](index=20&type=chunk)[21](index=21&type=chunk) - Operating results in The Americas were heavily impacted by **$911 million** in goodwill and other intangible asset impairment charges and **$159 million** in talcum litigation settlement charges[21](index=21&type=chunk) - The decline in EMEA operating income was primarily due to the decrease in net sales from the global travel retail business[21](index=21&type=chunk) [Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2025 Results](index=12&type=section&id=Fourth%20Quarter%20Results) [Q4 Performance Summary](index=12&type=section&id=Q4%20Results%20by%20Product%20Category) Q4 fiscal 2025 saw a sequential deterioration with net sales declining **12-13%**, driven by travel retail and China softness, resulting in a **$546 million** net loss Q4 FY2025 Net Sales by Product Category (Organic) | Category | Organic Net Sales Change (%) | | :--- | :--- | | Skin Care | (17)% | | Makeup | (12)% | | Fragrance | 2% | | Hair Care | (15)% | - The sequential deterioration in Q4 net sales was primarily due to a stronger decline in the global travel retail business and ongoing subdued consumer sentiment in mainland China[28](index=28&type=chunk) - The operating loss for the quarter was **$390 million**, compared to a loss of **$233 million** in the prior-year period The decline was driven by lower net sales and impairment charges[28](index=28&type=chunk) - For the fourth quarter, the company reported a net loss of **$546 million** and a diluted net loss per common share of **$1.51**[28](index=28&type=chunk) [Corporate Actions and Strategic Plans](index=15&type=section&id=Corporate%20Actions%20and%20Strategic%20Plans) [Quarterly Dividend](index=15&type=section&id=QUARTERLY%20DIVIDEND) The company declared a quarterly dividend of **$0.35** per share for both Class A and Class B Common Stock - A quarterly dividend of **$0.35** per share was announced, payable on September 16, 2025, to stockholders of record on September 2, 2025[29](index=29&type=chunk) [Profit Recovery and Growth Plan (PRGP)](index=15&type=section&id=PROFIT%20RECOVERY%20AND%20GROWTH%20PLAN%20%28PRGP%29) The PRGP aims to restore sales growth and achieve a double-digit adjusted operating margin, with restructuring charges of **$1.2 billion** to **$1.6 billion** and **5,800-7,000** job reductions - The PRGP aims to restore sales growth in fiscal 2026 and achieve a solid double-digit adjusted operating margin over the next few years Actions are expected to be substantially completed in fiscal 2027[30](index=30&type=chunk) - In fiscal 2025, the PRGP helped deliver over **200 basis points** of adjusted gross margin expansion and reduced non-consumer-facing expenses by **6%** to fund investments[31](index=31&type=chunk) - The restructuring program component is expected to incur charges of **$1.2 billion** to **$1.6 billion** and yield annual gross benefits of **$0.8 billion** to **$1.0 billion**[33](index=33&type=chunk) - The company estimates a net reduction of **5,800 to 7,000** positions as part of the restructuring program[34](index=34&type=chunk) [Fiscal 2026 Outlook](index=17&type=section&id=OUTLOOK%20FOR%20FISCAL%202026%20FULL%20YEAR) [Full Year Guidance](index=18&type=section&id=Full%20Year%20Guidance) Fiscal 2026 guidance projects reported net sales growth of **2-5%** and adjusted diluted EPS of **$1.90-$2.10**, despite an estimated **$100 million** tariff impact Fiscal 2026 Full Year Outlook | Metric | Forecast Range | | :--- | :--- | | Reported Net Sales Growth | 2% - 5% | | Organic Net Sales Growth (Non-GAAP) | 0% - 3% | | Reported EPS - GAAP ($) | $1.63 - $1.87 | | Adjusted EPS - Non-GAAP ($) | $1.90 - $2.10 | | Adjusted EPS Growth (Non-GAAP) | 26% - 39% | - The company expects tariff-related headwinds to negatively impact fiscal 2026 profitability by approximately **$100 million**, net of mitigation actions[39](index=39&type=chunk) - Adjusted operating margin is expected to be between **9.4% and 9.9%**, with greater expansion anticipated in the second half of the fiscal year as PRGP benefits build[47](index=47&type=chunk) - Net cash flows from operating activities are projected to be between **$1.0 billion and $1.1 billion**, a decline from fiscal 2025, reflecting higher restructuring payments expected to peak in fiscal 2026[47](index=47&type=chunk) [Key Assumptions and Regional Reorganization](index=17&type=section&id=Key%20Assumptions%20and%20Regional%20Reorganization) Fiscal 2026 outlook assumes mid-single-digit growth in mainland China and modest growth in travel retail, with a new four-region geographic reporting structure - Beginning in fiscal 2026, the company will report under a new regional structure: The Americas; Europe, the United Kingdom and Ireland and Emerging Markets (EUKEM); Asia/Pacific (including global travel retail); and Mainland China[36](index=36&type=chunk) - Key outlook assumptions include a mid-single-digit return to growth in mainland China and a return to modest growth in the global travel retail business[43](index=43&type=chunk) - The company anticipates low-single-digit organic net sales decline to slightly positive in the first quarter of fiscal 2026[43](index=43&type=chunk) [Financial Statements](index=23&type=section&id=Financial%20Statements) [Consolidated Statement of (Loss) Earnings](index=23&type=section&id=CONSOLIDATED%20STATEMENT%20OF%20%28LOSS%29%20EARNINGS) The Consolidated Statement of (Loss) Earnings for FY2025 shows a net loss of **$1.13 billion** on **$14.33 billion** net sales, driven by **$1.29 billion** in impairment charges FY2025 Consolidated Statement of (Loss) Earnings Highlights | ($ millions) | Year Ended June 30, 2025 | Year Ended June 30, 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Net sales ($ millions) | $14,326 | $15,608 | | Gross profit ($ millions) | $10,597 | $11,184 | | Total operating expenses ($ millions) | $11,382 | $10,214 | | Operating (loss) income ($ millions) | $(785) | $970 | | Net (loss) earnings ($ millions) | $(1,133) | $409 | | Diluted Net (loss) earnings per share ($) | $(3.15) | $1.08 | [Condensed Consolidated Balance Sheets](index=27&type=section&id=CONDENSED%20CONSOLIDATED%20BALANCE%20SHEETS) As of June 30, 2025, total assets decreased to **$19.89 billion** and total equity declined to **$3.87 billion**, while total liabilities remained stable Balance Sheet Highlights | ($ millions) | June 30, 2025 | June 30, 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Total current assets ($ millions) | $7,069 | $7,922 | | **Total assets ($ millions)** | **$19,892** | **$21,677** | | Total current liabilities ($ millions) | $5,435 | $5,702 | | Long-term debt ($ millions) | $7,314 | $7,267 | | **Total equity ($ millions)** | **$3,865** | **$5,314** | | **Total liabilities and equity ($ millions)** | **$19,892** | **$21,677** | [Select Cash Flow Data](index=28&type=section&id=SELECT%20CASH%20FLOW%20DATA) Net cash from operating activities decreased significantly to **$1.27 billion** in FY2025, driven by net loss and working capital changes, with capital expenditures reduced Select Cash Flow Data | ($ millions) | Twelve Months Ended June 30, 2025 | Twelve Months Ended June 30, 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Net (loss) earnings ($ millions) | $(1,133) | $409 | | **Net cash flows provided by operating activities ($ millions)** | **$1,272** | **$2,360** | | Capital expenditures ($ millions) | $(602) | $(919) | | Dividends paid to stockholders ($ millions) | $(618) | $(947) | [Reconciliation of GAAP to Non-GAAP Measures](index=25&type=section&id=Reconciliation%20of%20GAAP%20to%20Non-GAAP%20Measures) Detailed reconciliations bridge GAAP and non-GAAP measures, with **$1.29 billion** in impairment and restructuring charges and **$159 million** in litigation settlements as key FY2025 adjustments - Non-GAAP adjustments to operating income for FY2025 totaled **$1.93 billion**, primarily consisting of **$1.29 billion** in goodwill and intangible asset impairments, **$486 million** in restructuring charges, and **$159 million** for talcum litigation settlements[69](index=69&type=chunk) - The company reconciles reported net sales to organic net sales by adjusting for returns associated with restructuring activities and the impact of foreign currency translation[66](index=66&type=chunk)[68](index=68&type=chunk)

Core Insights - Estée Lauder Companies is set to report earnings on August 20, 2025, with a consensus expectation of earnings per share at $0.09 and sales of $3.4 billion, a decline from $0.64 per share and $3.87 billion in the same quarter last year [4] Historical Stock Performance - Over the past five years, Estée Lauder's stock has shown a pattern of negative one-day returns post-earnings, with 70% of instances resulting in a decline, a median drop of -7.3%, and the largest single-day drop being -20.9% [3][7] - In the last five years, there have been 20 recorded earnings data points, with only 6 positive one-day returns, indicating a 30% occurrence rate of positive returns, which drops to 9.1% in the last three years [7] Financial Performance - The company has a market capitalization of $33 billion and generated $15 billion in revenue over the last twelve months, with $1.3 billion in operating profits, but reported a net loss of $871 million during the same period [5] Trading Strategies - Traders may consider pre-earnings positioning based on historical odds and evaluate immediate post-earnings reactions to inform medium-term trading decisions [6][8] - A lower-risk approach involves assessing the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns around earnings, allowing traders to structure trades based on the strongest correlations observed [8]

Core Insights - Estee Lauder (EL) is anticipated to report a year-over-year decline in earnings and revenues for the quarter ended June 2025, with earnings expected at $0.08 per share, reflecting an 87.5% decrease, and revenues projected at $3.4 billion, down 12.2% from the previous year [1][3][18]. Earnings Estimates and Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 3.45% higher in the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [4][19]. - The Most Accurate Estimate is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of +53.86%, suggesting a strong likelihood of beating the consensus EPS estimate [12][19]. Historical Performance - Estee Lauder has consistently beaten consensus EPS estimates in the last four quarters, with a notable surprise of +124.14% in the last reported quarter [13][14]. Market Expectations - The upcoming earnings report is set to be released on August 20, and the stock may experience significant movement based on whether the actual results exceed or fall short of expectations [2][19]. - The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) indicates a favorable outlook for Estee Lauder's performance in the upcoming earnings report [12][19].

Group 1 - Estee Lauder (EL) has reached a key level of support and recently crossed above the 20-day moving average, indicating a short-term bullish trend [1][2] - Over the past four weeks, EL shares have increased by 6.5%, and the company holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting potential for continued growth [4] - Positive earnings estimate revisions have been noted, with no estimates lowered in the past two months and four raised estimates for the current fiscal year, leading to an increase in the consensus estimate [4] Group 2 - The 20-day simple moving average is a popular trading tool that helps smooth out short-term price trends and indicates trend reversals [2] - Investors are encouraged to consider adding EL to their watchlist due to the significant technical indicator and positive earnings estimate revisions [5]

Core Insights - The Estee Lauder Companies Inc. is expected to report declines in both net sales and earnings for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, with net sales estimated at $3.4 billion, reflecting a 12.2% decrease year-over-year [1][9] - The earnings consensus for the fourth quarter has risen by 2 cents to 8 cents per share, indicating an 87.5% decline compared to the previous year [2][9] - The company is facing challenges due to weak consumer sentiment in Mainland China and a downturn in global travel retail, impacting the prestige beauty sector [3][4] Sales and Earnings Expectations - The anticipated organic net sales decline for the fourth quarter is projected at 13.4%, following a 28% drop in Asia travel retail during the third quarter [4] - Retailer destocking across various regions, including Asia-Pacific and North America, is expected to further pressure sales despite gradual improvements in retail trends outside of travel retail [4] Operating Expenses and Profitability - The Estee Lauder Companies has experienced a significant increase in operating expenses, which rose by 580 basis points as a percentage of sales in the fiscal third quarter, primarily due to investments aimed at growth [5] - Any potential deleverage in operating expenses may negatively impact profit margins [5] Strategic Initiatives - The company is implementing a Profit Recovery and Growth Plan focused on margin expansion, targeted investments, and process simplification to enhance agility [6] - An expanded presence in high-growth digital channels and positioning in emerging markets are seen as positive factors that may support performance in the fourth quarter [6] Earnings Prediction - The company's earnings model suggests a likelihood of an earnings beat, supported by a positive Earnings ESP of +36.11% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [7]

Core Insights - EssilorLuxottica's Board of Directors approved the condensed consolidated interim financial statements for the first half of 2025 on July 28, 2025 [2] - The 2025 Interim Financial Report includes the Management Report, Condensed Consolidated Interim Financial Statements, Statutory Auditors' Review Report, and the Statement by the Person Responsible for the Report [3] - The Interim Financial Report is available for download on EssilorLuxottica's website under the Investors section [3]

Group 1 - The company reported a sound revenue growth of 7.3% in both Q2 and H1, indicating strong performance across all regions and businesses [8] - North America showed acceleration in performance, with Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) maintaining solid growth [8] - EMEA confirmed strong performance in both Professional Services (PS) and DTC, being the best region for the company [8] Group 2 - AI glasses, particularly Ray-Ban Meta, experienced over 200% increase in sales in H1, showcasing significant market demand [8] - The successful launch of Oakley Meta and the 50th anniversary edition further solidified the company's position in the AI glasses market [8] - Nuance Audio has been rolled out in 10,000 locations across North America and Europe, indicating strong adoption [8] Group 3 - The adjusted operating margin remained stable at 18.3% in H1, reflecting effective cost management [8] - The company generated a sound free cash flow of €951 million, demonstrating strong financial health [8] - The acquisition of Optegra clinics marks a significant step in the company's MedTech journey, enhancing its capabilities in personalized patient care [8]

Core Viewpoint - Michael Burry has significantly altered his investment strategy by liquidating nearly all previous positions and concentrating solely on Estée Lauder Companies Inc. [1] Group 1: Investment Position - As of March 31, 2025, Burry's Scion Asset Management holds 200,000 shares of Estée Lauder at a purchase price of $66.00 per share, totaling $13.2 million [2] - The current trading price of Estée Lauder shares is $89.74, reflecting a 35.97% increase since the purchase, resulting in approximately $4.7 million in unrealized gains [2] Group 2: Company Performance - Estée Lauder has shown a significant rebound from its 52-week low of $48.12, although it is still below its 52-week high of $101.93 [3] - The company is focusing on restructuring efforts, expanding its global presence, and regaining momentum in the luxury beauty market after facing challenges [3]