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Toll Brothers Stock Slides After Homebuilder Reports Mixed Q4 Results Citing 'Soft Demand'
Benzinga· 2025-12-08 22:00
Core Insights - Toll Brothers Inc reported fourth-quarter revenue of $3.42 billion, exceeding the consensus estimate of $3.30 billion, but earnings per share of $4.58 fell short of analyst expectations of $4.89 [2][3] Group 1: Financial Performance - Home sales revenue increased approximately 5% year-over-year, with homes delivered rising to 3,443 from 3,431 in the fourth quarter of 2024 [3] - The net signed contract value at the end of the quarter was $2.53 billion, while backlog value decreased to $5.5 billion from $6.5 billion year-over-year [3] - The company repurchased about 1.8 million shares during the quarter and ended with $1.26 billion in cash and cash equivalents [3] Group 2: Management Commentary - The CEO emphasized a disciplined approach to business amid soft demand, focusing on maximizing returns for stockholders and managing inventory based on local demand conditions [4] - The company plans to balance price and pace while actively managing spec starts [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - Toll Brothers expects to deliver between 1,800 to 1,900 homes in the first quarter at an average price of $985,000 to $995,000 per home, with an anticipated adjusted home sales gross margin of 26.25% [4] - For fiscal 2026, the company projects delivering 10,300 to 10,700 homes at an average price of $970,000 to $990,000 [5]
Toll Brothers Gives Cautious 2026 Outlook as Housing Demand Remains Soft
WSJ· 2025-12-08 21:59
Core Insights - The company reported higher revenue in the fourth quarter, indicating a positive performance in that period [1] - However, the company provided a cautious outlook for house deliveries in the new fiscal year due to soft industry demand [1] Company Performance - The company experienced an increase in revenue during the fourth quarter, suggesting strong sales or effective cost management [1] - Despite the revenue growth, the company is wary about future house deliveries, reflecting concerns about market conditions [1] Industry Outlook - The overall demand in the housing industry remains soft, which could impact future performance and delivery schedules for the company [1]
Toll Brothers(TOL) - 2025 Q4 - Annual Results
2025-12-08 21:47
Financial Performance - Net income for FY 2025 was $1.35 billion, or $13.49 per diluted share, compared to $1.57 billion, or $15.01 per diluted share in FY 2024[5] - Total revenues for the year ended October 31, 2025, were $10,966,723, compared to $10,846,740 for the previous year, reflecting a growth of 1.1%[29] - Net income for Q4 2025 was $446,716, a decrease of 6.0% from $475,409 in Q4 2024[29] - Adjusted net income for the year ended October 31, 2025, was $1,346,486, a decrease from $1,447,076 in 2024, reflecting a decline of 6.9%[45] - The effective tax rate for the year ended October 31, 2025, was 24.8%, compared to 24.7% in the previous year[29] Home Sales and Revenue - Home sales revenues for FY 2025 reached $10.84 billion, an increase from $10.56 billion in FY 2024, with delivered homes totaling 11,292 compared to 10,813[5] - Home sales revenue for Q4 2025 reached $3,413,999, an increase of 4.7% from $3,260,004 in Q4 2024[29] - Home sales for the three months ended October 31, 2025, totaled 3,443 units, slightly up from 3,431 units in the same period of 2024, with an average price per unit of $991,400, compared to $950,100 in 2024, reflecting a 4.3% increase[32] - Home sales revenues for the three months ended October 31, 2025, were $3,413,999, an increase from $3,260,004 in the same period of 2024, representing a growth of 4.7%[41] Backlog and Inventory - The backlog value at the end of FY 2025 was $5.5 billion, down from $6.5 billion at the end of FY 2024, with homes in backlog decreasing to 4,647 from 5,996[5] - The backlog of homes as of October 31, 2025, was 4,647 units, down from 5,996 units in 2024, with a total backlog value of $5,494.4 million, compared to $6,467.8 million in 2024, indicating a decrease of 15%[32] - Inventory increased to $10,678,460 as of October 31, 2025, compared to $9,712,925 in the previous year, indicating a rise of 9.9%[27] - Inventory at October 31, 2025, was $10,678.5 million, an increase from $9,712.9 million in 2024, representing an increase of 9.9%[31] Margins and Expenses - The adjusted home sales gross margin for FY 2025 was 27.3%, compared to 28.4% in FY 2024[6] - Gross margin for home sales in Q4 2025 was 25.5%, slightly down from 26.0% in Q4 2024[29] - Selling, general and administrative expenses for the year ended October 31, 2025, were $1,033,622, up from $982,291 in 2024, representing a 5.2% increase[29] - Home sales gross margin as a percentage of home sale revenues decreased to 25.5% in Q4 2025 from 26.0% in Q4 2024[41] Shareholder Actions and Equity - The company repurchased approximately 1.8 million shares at an average price of $139.39 per share for a total of $249.1 million in FY 2025[5] - Total stockholders' equity increased to $8,270,663 as of October 31, 2025, compared to $8,095,572 in July 2025, showing a growth of 2.2%[48] Debt and Capital Structure - The company ended FY 2025 with a debt-to-capital ratio of 26.0%, down from 27.0% at the end of FY 2024[14] - Total liabilities as of October 31, 2025, were $6,233,802, an increase from $5,681,217 in the previous year[27] - Total debt as of October 31, 2025, was $2,902,167, slightly down from $2,942,519 in July 2025[48] - The net debt-to-capital ratio improved to 15.3% as of October 31, 2025, compared to 19.3% in July 2025, indicating a reduction in leverage[48] Future Outlook - For FY 2026, the company expects deliveries between 10,300 and 10,700 units, with an average delivered price per home of $970,000 to $990,000[10] - The company plans to grow its community count by 8% to 10% in FY 2026, maintaining a disciplined approach to land acquisition[8] - The company has not provided projected home sales gross margin for FY 2026 due to the unpredictability of inventory write-downs[42]
Toll Brothers Reports FY 2025 Fourth Quarter Results
Globenewswire· 2025-12-08 21:30
Core Insights - Toll Brothers, Inc. reported strong financial results for FY 2025, achieving record home sales revenues of $10.8 billion and delivering 11,292 homes at an average price of $960,000, despite a challenging market environment [4][9][11]. Financial Highlights for Q4 FY 2025 - In Q4 FY 2025, the company generated $3.4 billion in home sales revenue, with an adjusted gross margin of 27.1% and an SG&A margin of 8.3% [4][9]. - Net income for Q4 FY 2025 was $446.7 million, or $4.58 per diluted share, compared to $475.4 million, or $4.63 per diluted share in Q4 FY 2024 [9][10]. - The number of homes delivered in Q4 FY 2025 was 3,443, slightly up from 3,431 in Q4 FY 2024 [9][10]. Full Year Financial Highlights FY 2025 - For the full fiscal year 2025, net income was $1.35 billion, or $13.49 per diluted share, down from $1.57 billion, or $15.01 per diluted share in FY 2024 [9][11]. - Home sales revenues increased to $10.84 billion from $10.56 billion in FY 2024, with a total of 11,292 homes delivered [9][11]. - The adjusted home sales gross margin for FY 2025 was 27.3%, compared to 28.4% in FY 2024 [11]. Operational Metrics - The company maintained a backlog value of $5.5 billion at the end of Q4 FY 2025, down from $6.5 billion at the end of Q4 FY 2024, with homes in backlog decreasing to 4,647 from 5,996 [9][10]. - The net signed contract value for Q4 FY 2025 was $2.53 billion, compared to $2.66 billion in Q4 FY 2024 [9][10]. Guidance for FY 2026 - For Q1 FY 2026, Toll Brothers expects to deliver between 1,800 and 1,900 units, with an average delivered price per home between $985,000 and $995,000 [7]. - The company anticipates a full fiscal year delivery range of 10,300 to 10,700 units, with an adjusted home sales gross margin of 26.00% [7]. Strategic Focus - The company is focused on disciplined operations and capital efficiency, with plans for community count growth of 8% to 10% in FY 2026 [5][6]. - Toll Brothers emphasizes its luxury market positioning, which is less affected by affordability pressures, and aims to balance price and pace in response to local demand conditions [5][6].
Demmert: TOL "Best" Housing Stock, Fed Offers Bullish 2026 Path
Youtube· 2025-12-08 17:00
Core Viewpoint - Toll Brothers is expected to perform well in the current housing market, potentially meeting or exceeding earnings expectations due to strong management and a solid balance sheet [2][3][12]. Company Performance - Toll Brothers has consistently beaten earnings expectations in the last two quarters, indicating effective earnings management even in a challenging environment [3]. - The company is viewed as the best among its peers, reflected in its share performance [3][12]. Market Conditions - The housing sector has faced headwinds for the past couple of years primarily due to high mortgage rates, which have significantly increased housing costs [2][5]. - Current mortgage rates are over 6%, which has doubled the cost of housing compared to when rates were under 3% [5]. Luxury Housing Market - The luxury housing market remains active, with some sellers pulling their homes off the market, indicating a cautious approach among potential buyers [4]. - There is a belief that the luxury market could rebound strongly once housing demand increases [2]. Investment Outlook - The stock is considered a value trade, currently priced at nine times earnings, which is seen as attractive for patient investors [12][13]. - The performance of Toll Brothers and similar stocks is closely tied to the movement of mortgage rates, with a need for rates to decrease for significant stock appreciation [5][9]. Economic Indicators - Future performance may hinge on Federal Reserve actions regarding interest rates, particularly in 2026, which could influence mortgage rates and overall economic strength [6][12].
Toll Brothers Earnings Are Coming. Why the Builder Is Faring Better Than Others.
Barrons· 2025-12-08 16:21
Core Insights - Toll is distinguished among builders due to its low cancellation rate, with a median home price of approximately $1 million [1] Company Summary - Toll's median home price stands at about $1 million, positioning it as an outlier in the homebuilding industry [1] - The company benefits from a low cancellation rate, which is a positive indicator of its market performance [1]
Sellers delist homes at a new high
CNBC Television· 2025-12-08 16:16
Welcome back. We're heading into the slow season for the housing market, but this year could be worse than expected as sellers seem to be giving up. Diana Ol joins us to explain why.Diana. >> Hey, M. Yeah.When a seller takes their home off the market, it's called a D-listing, and they're now happening at an unusually high rate. Dellistings in October, which are reported with a one-mon lag, were up 45 a.5% year-to- date and up nearly 38% from October of last year. That according to a new report from realtor. ...
Toll Brothers Gears Up For Q4 Print; Here Are The Recent Forecast Changes From Wall Street's Most Accurate Analysts - Toll Brothers (NYSE:TOL)
Benzinga· 2025-12-08 10:06
Toll Brothers, Inc. (NYSE:TOL) will release earnings results for the fourth quarter after the closing bell on Monday, Dec. 8.Analysts expect the company to report quarterly earnings at $4.88 per share, up from $4.63 per share in the year-ago period. The consensus estimate for Toll Brothers’ quarterly revenue is $3.32 billion, compared to $3.33 billion a year earlier, according to data from Benzinga Pro.On Aug. 19, Toll Brothers reported third-quarter revenue of $2.95 billion, beating the consensus estimate ...
Toll Brothers Gears Up For Q4 Print; Here Are The Recent Forecast Changes From Wall Street's Most Accurate Analysts
Benzinga· 2025-12-08 10:06
Core Insights - Toll Brothers, Inc. is set to release its fourth-quarter earnings results on December 8, with expected earnings of $4.88 per share, an increase from $4.63 per share in the same period last year [1] - The consensus estimate for quarterly revenue is $3.32 billion, slightly down from $3.33 billion a year earlier [1] Recent Performance - In the third quarter, Toll Brothers reported revenue of $2.95 billion, surpassing the consensus estimate of $2.85 billion [2] - The company also reported third-quarter earnings of $3.73 per share, exceeding analyst estimates of $3.59 per share [2] - Following the earnings report, shares of Toll Brothers fell by 1.5%, closing at $138.94 [2] Analyst Ratings - JP Morgan upgraded Toll Brothers from Neutral to Overweight with a price target of $161 [5] - B of A Securities maintained a Buy rating but reduced the price target from $155 to $150 [5] - Evercore ISI downgraded the stock from Outperform to In-Line, lowering the price target from $169 to $160 [5] - Citigroup maintained a Neutral rating and raised the price target from $138 to $147 [5] - Wedbush kept an Outperform rating with a price target of $165 [5]