In an effort to improve housing affordability, President Donald Trump posted on social media Thursday that he is instructing mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy $200 billion in mortgage bonds. "This will drive Mortgage Rates DOWN, monthly payments DOWN, and make the cost of owning a home more affordable," he said in the Truth Social post.Fannie Mae and Freddie, which are in government conservatorship, do not originate home loans. They buy loans from lenders, bundle them into mortgage-backed se ...

文 | 招商宏观张静静团队 核心观点 国内方面，高频数据显示Q4有效需求不足持续挤压企业盈利空间。人民币升值或暂时接近到位，此前年底结汇需求集中释放使人民 币汇率明显升值，但央行或开始有意控制汇率升值幅度，中间价破7仍需企业套保率及跨境人民币结算占比进一步提升，预计明年中 后期大概率时机成熟。 海外方面，日本央行议息会议后，近期植田和男称正稳步接近2%通胀目标，将继续加息。美国Q3经济增速超预期，其中过半为个人 消费支出项所贡献，抵押贷款利率的高位回落对地产的传导仍有时滞，但是能显著影响当期消费。 资产方面，A股权益市场配置行情延续，但短期波动或将加剧。过去两周处于海外市场交易清淡期，但静极思动，新年过后外部扰 动或将加大。目前美元兑日元仍高于155，一旦日本央行干预汇市或美联储降息预期降温，海外市场仍将对国内权益资产造成阶段扰 动。 国内方面， 1）高频数据显示2025年四季度以来有效需求不足正在持续挤压企业盈利空间，导致"以价换量"边际效应锐减。11月当月 工业企业利润增速仍在负区间运行，并且跌幅较上月再度扩大了7.6个百分点。2）人民币升值或暂时接近到位。临近年底结汇需求 集中释放推动人民币汇率明显升值 ...

智通财经APP获悉，周三，三大指数收涨。盘中，标普500指数最高上涨至6937.32点，创盘中历史新 高。纽约证券交易所于美国东部时间周三（圣诞前夜）下午1点提前收盘，并将于周四（圣诞节）休 市。周五正常交易。 【宏观消息】 初请失业金数人数意外下降 12月失业率或继续处高位。美国上周初请失业金人数意外下降，但由于就 业低迷，12月失业率可能维持在高位。美国劳工部周三公布，截至12月20日当周初请失业金人数经季调 后减少1万人，至21.4万人。路透调查的经济学家此前预计，初请失业金人数为22.4万人。近期数据因假 日季前季节性调整面临挑战而出现波动。劳动力市场仍处于经济学家和政策制定者所称的"不招聘、不 解雇"模式。尽管美国经济仍保持弹性，但劳动力市场几乎陷入停滞。在截至12月13日的当周，续领失 业金人数增加3.8万人，经季调后达到192.3万人。这一上升与世界大型企业联合会周二发布的调查结果 一致，该调查显示消费者本月对劳动力市场的看法恶化至2021年初以来的水平。11月失业率升至4.6% 的四年高位，不过部分原因是与政府停摆相关的技术性因素导致。 巴克莱上调美国四季度GDP增速预期。巴克莱经济学家在一份 ...

上周，特朗普在接受《华尔街日报》采访时透露，他倾向于选择前美联储理事凯文·沃什或白宫经济顾问凯文·哈塞特担任主席。更令人瞩 目的是，他直言下一任美联储主席应该在利率设定上与他进行磋商，这明显打破了历任总统不干预利率决策的惯例。特朗普认为，他是 一个"聪明的声音"，应该被倾听。 据了解，目前进入最终候选名单的有三人：白宫经济顾问凯文·哈塞特、前美联储理事凯文·沃什以及现任美联储理事克里斯·沃勒。虽然 这三人都主张利率应低于当前水平，但似乎没有人明确表示愿意将利率降至特朗普所要求的"危机水平"。 特朗普周三与沃勒进行了会面。沃勒虽然是现任美联储官员中较早提出降息建议的人，但他同时也是美联储独立性的坚定拥护者。华尔 街见闻此前报道，沃勒曾公开表示，鉴于就业市场放缓且通胀受控，美联储仍有50至100个基点的降息空间，但他强调应采取稳健渐进的 方式，在经济增长和通胀控制之间寻求平衡。 美国总统特朗普近期就下一任美联储主席人选发表了一系列引人关注的言论，其核心在于强调新任主席必须是"大幅降息"的支持者。这 一公开表态，不仅再次展现了他对现有货币政策的不满，更引发了关于总统是否意图干预美联储独立性的广泛讨论。 在全国讲话中 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. economy is showing high growth with declining inflation, as noted by Hassett, the director of the National Economic Council [2] - Wage growth is outpacing price growth, leading to significant tax refunds for American taxpayers next year [2] - There is considerable room for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, according to Hassett [2] Group 2 - The current trading price of silver TD is reported at 15,107 yuan per kilogram, down 2.31% from the opening price of 15,420 yuan per kilogram [1] - The highest price reached today was 15,499 yuan per kilogram, while the lowest was 15,030 yuan per kilogram [1] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates a neutral to bearish state for silver TD, with support levels identified between 14,500 and 15,000, and resistance levels between 15,400 and 16,000 [2]

Core Viewpoint - Toll Brothers is expected to perform well in the current housing market, potentially meeting or exceeding earnings expectations due to strong management and a solid balance sheet [2][3][12]. Company Performance - Toll Brothers has consistently beaten earnings expectations in the last two quarters, indicating effective earnings management even in a challenging environment [3]. - The company is viewed as the best among its peers, reflected in its share performance [3][12]. Market Conditions - The housing sector has faced headwinds for the past couple of years primarily due to high mortgage rates, which have significantly increased housing costs [2][5]. - Current mortgage rates are over 6%, which has doubled the cost of housing compared to when rates were under 3% [5]. Luxury Housing Market - The luxury housing market remains active, with some sellers pulling their homes off the market, indicating a cautious approach among potential buyers [4]. - There is a belief that the luxury market could rebound strongly once housing demand increases [2]. Investment Outlook - The stock is considered a value trade, currently priced at nine times earnings, which is seen as attractive for patient investors [12][13]. - The performance of Toll Brothers and similar stocks is closely tied to the movement of mortgage rates, with a need for rates to decrease for significant stock appreciation [5][9]. Economic Indicators - Future performance may hinge on Federal Reserve actions regarding interest rates, particularly in 2026, which could influence mortgage rates and overall economic strength [6][12].

根据抵押贷款银行家协会（MBA）周三发布的数据，截至11月28日当周（包含感恩节假期），30年期 抵押贷款合同利率下降8个基点，至6.32%。锁定前5年利率的可调利率抵押贷款的利率降至5.4%，为 2023年5月以来的最低水平。 该协会衡量购房申请的指标攀升2.5%，达到2023年初以来的最高水平。尽管每周数据在假期附近往往 会有波动，但购房活动的持续回升将表明，在负担能力面临挑战的住房市场中潜在需求依然稳定。 与此同时，MBA衡量再融资活动的指标连续第五周下跌，创下一年来最长连跌。 自1990年以来每周开展的该协会调查，汇集了抵押贷款银行家、商业银行和储贷机构的反馈。相关数据 覆盖了美国零售住宅抵押贷款申请总量的75%以上。 该协会衡量购房申请的指标攀升2.5%，达到2023年初以来的最高水平。尽管每周数据在假期附近往往 会有波动，但购房活动的持续回升将表明，在负担能力面临挑战的住房市场中潜在需求依然稳定。 与此同时，MBA衡量再融资活动的指标连续第五周下跌，创下一年来最长连跌。 自1990年以来每周开展的该协会调查，汇集了抵押贷款银行家、商业银行和储贷机构的反馈。相关数据 覆盖了美国零售住宅抵押贷款申请总 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessenet stated that mortgage rates have "dramatically decreased" [1]

Core Insights - Mortgage rates are experiencing slight fluctuations, with the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate decreasing to 6.09% and the 15-year fixed term increasing to 5.44% [1][18] Current Mortgage Rates - The current national average mortgage rates are as follows: - 30-year fixed: 6.09% - 20-year fixed: 5.75% - 15-year fixed: 5.44% - 5/1 ARM: 6.22% - 7/1 ARM: 6.53% - 30-year VA: 5.58% - 15-year VA: 5.01% - 5/1 VA: 5.48% [5] Refinance Rates - Today's mortgage refinance rates are generally higher than purchase rates, with the national averages rounded to the nearest hundredth [3] Market Trends - Mortgage rates have gradually decreased, with the 30-year fixed rate dropping by over half a point since early July [20] - Current rates are lower than they have been in over a year, making it a relatively good time to buy a house compared to previous years [16] Economic Outlook - Economists do not expect significant drops in mortgage interest rates before the end of the year, indicating a stable but cautious outlook for potential homebuyers [19]

Core Insights - Chile's mortgage rates are expected to take up to ten years to return to pre-social unrest levels of slightly above 2% [1] - Previous early pension withdrawals totaling $50 billion have exacerbated inflation and weakened capital market depth, leading to credit tightening and rising interest rates [1] - The positive signal from pension reform, which injects 4.5 percentage points of contributions into individual accounts, will have a slow downward impact on interest rates as funds gradually enter the financial system [1] - Achieving the anticipated interest rate target will depend on the coordination of future GDP growth and the formalization of the labor market [1]