Core Insights - Two ongoing conflicts, particularly the war in Iran, are diminishing expectations for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in the near future, as rising oil prices are fueling inflation concerns [2] - The financial markets are currently pricing in a 27% probability of a rate hike by the Fed in 2026, contrasting sharply with only a 9% chance of a rate cut, indicating a shift in market sentiment [4] - The Fed has maintained its key interest rate at a range of 3.5% to 3.75%, with Chair Jerome Powell highlighting the dual risks of inflation and unemployment that the central bank is navigating [5] Economic Implications - Higher interest rates are expected to lead to increased borrowing costs, reduced consumer spending, and slower business expansion, which collectively indicate a deceleration in economic growth [7] - Economists suggest that for a rate hike to be seriously considered, core inflation would need to rise significantly, driven by higher transportation costs due to increased fuel prices [8] - The current geopolitical tensions and their impact on energy prices are pressuring the Fed to maintain higher rates for an extended period, complicating the outlook for future monetary policy [9]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve significantly influences borrowing costs, particularly affecting private student loans with variable rates, while federal student loans have fixed rates that remain unchanged during the loan term [2][4][5]. Impact of Federal Reserve Decisions - The Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at 3.5-3.75% during the March 2026 meeting, following three quarter-point rate cuts in 2025, which may lead to lower rates for private student loan borrowers in the future [3][6]. - Changes in the federal funds rate affect lenders' borrowing costs, which are then passed on to consumers, meaning that increases in the Fed's rates will eventually lead to higher average interest rates on loans, while cuts will likely result in lower rates [4][6]. Federal vs. Private Student Loans - Federal student loan rates are determined by Congress annually and remain fixed for loans disbursed from July 1 to June 30 of the following year, meaning existing borrowers are not affected by Fed rate changes [5][6]. - Private student loans, especially those with variable rates, are more directly influenced by the Federal Reserve's rate decisions, making them subject to fluctuations based on market conditions [6][7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the high - level oscillation of crude oil prices and the downward revision of the Fed's interest rate cut expectations suppress precious metals. In the long run, the price center of precious metals will continue to rise. The long - term upward trend of gold remains unchanged due to multiple factors such as geopolitical risks, anti - inflation needs, de - dollarization, and central bank gold purchases. Silver, platinum, and palladium follow the overall sector trend with greater volatility [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: For Shanghai Gold 2606, the previous day's closing price was 1121.50, the closing price yesterday was 1119.16, with a decline of 2.34 and a decline rate of - 0.21%. For Shanghai Gold 2604, the previous day's closing price was 1118.340, the closing price yesterday was 1116.200, with a decline of 2.140 and a decline rate of - 0.19%. For Shanghai Silver 2606, the previous day's closing price was 20301, the closing price yesterday was 20308, with an increase of 7 and an increase rate of 0.03%. For Shanghai Silver 2604, the previous day's closing price was 20380, the closing price yesterday was 20371, with a decline of 9 and a decline rate of - 0.04% [2]. - **Positions and Volumes**: The position volume of Shanghai Gold 2606 was 148093, and the trading volume was 71848. The position volume of Shanghai Gold 2604 was 90930, and the trading volume was 146932. The position volume of Shanghai Silver 2606 was 218466, and the trading volume was 550109. The position volume of Shanghai Silver 2604 was 73981, and the trading volume was 74236 [2]. - **Spot Premiums**: The spot premium of Shanghai Gold 2606 was - 3.68, and that of Shanghai Gold 2604 was - 0.72. The spot premium of Shanghai Silver 2606 was 22, and that of Shanghai Silver 2604 was - 41 [2]. Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing price of Shanghai Gold T + D was 1114.99, the closing price yesterday was 1115.48, with an increase of 0.49 and an increase rate of 0.04%. The previous day's closing price of London Gold was 5003.82, the closing price yesterday was 5006.63, with an increase of 2.81 and an increase rate of 0.06%. The previous day's closing price of Shanghai Silver T + D was 20077, the closing price yesterday was 20330, with an increase of 253 and an increase rate of 1.26%. The previous day's closing price of London Silver was 80.73, the closing price yesterday was 79.36, with a decline of 1.37 and a decline rate of - 1.70% [2]. - **Price Differences**: The current value of Shanghai Gold 2606 - Shanghai Gold 2604 was 2.96, and the previous value was 3.16. The current value of Shanghai Silver 2606 - Shanghai Silver 2604 was - 63.00, and the previous value was - 79.00. The current value of the gold/silver ratio (spot) was 54.87, and the previous value was 55.54. The current value of Shanghai Gold/London Gold was 1.01, and the previous value was 1.00. The current value of Shanghai Silver/London Silver was 1.16, and the previous value was 1.15 [2]. Inventory - **Changes**: The current value of the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory was 105,315 kg, a decrease of 102 kg from the previous value. The current value of the Shanghai Futures Exchange's silver inventory was 353,763 kg, an increase of 23055 kg from the previous value. The current value of the COMEX gold inventory was 32,236,075 troy ounces, a decrease of 160323 troy ounces from the previous value. The current value of the COMEX silver inventory was 337,892,693 troy ounces, a decrease of 1689570 troy ounces from the previous value [2]. Related Derivatives - **ETF Positions and CFTC Net Positions**: The current value of the SPDR Gold ETF position was 1,070 tons, a decrease of 1 ton from the previous value. The current value of the SLV Silver ETF position was 15,390 tons, an increase of 34 tons from the previous value. The current value of the CFTC speculator's net position in gold was 163,132, an increase of 2987 from the previous value. The current value of the CFTC speculator's net position in silver was 24,578, an increase of 1240 from the previous value [2]. Macro News - **Fed Interest Rate Expectations**: According to CME "FedWatch", the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged this week is 98.9%, the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 0%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point increase is 1.1%. The probability of a 25 - basis - point cumulative cut by April is 3.1%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 95.9%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point increase is 1.1%. The probability of a 25 - basis - point cumulative cut by June is 78.1% [3]. - **Iranian Incidents**: Iran has designated multiple replacement candidates for key national positions. Iran's President confirmed the death of Ali Larijani, the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council. Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu said Larijani and Basij militia commander Suleimani were killed in an Israeli air - strike [3][4]. - **US - Related News**: US President Trump criticized his allies, threatened to withdraw from NATO, and the US will relax sanctions on Venezuela during the Iran war to release more oil resources [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term market uncertainty is high, and investors are advised to control positions and prevent risks [2] - The Middle East conflict continues, with significant differences between the US and Iran and no intention to cease fire. The situation in Iran should be continuously monitored [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Market Quotes - COMEX gold futures rose 0.18% to $5011.30 per ounce, COMEX silver futures fell 1.51% to $79.46 per ounce. Shanghai gold's main contract fell 0.16% to 1114.36 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver's main contract fell 1.85% to 20088 yuan per kilogram [1] - ICE Brent crude oil closed up 3.28% at $103.50 per barrel on Tuesday. The US dollar index rose first and then fell, closing down 0.25% at 99.56. The 10 - year US Treasury yield fell about 2 basis points to 4.20% [1] Important Information - On March 17, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR Gold Trust decreased by 1.144 tons to 1069.564 tons, and the holdings of the world's largest silver ETF - iShares Silver Trust increased by 33.8 tons to 15389.75 tons [1] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points this week is 0%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 98.9%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points is 1.1%. By April, the probability of cumulative interest rate cuts of 25 basis points is 3.1%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 95.9%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points is 1.1% [1] - Trump said he is not ready to end the conflict but will leave in the near future. He invited allies to participate in escort but was met with a cold response, and threatened to withdraw from NATO. Iran's Supreme Leader rejected the peace - making proposal, and key figures in Iran died. Iran attacked UAE's upstream oil and gas facilities for the first time [1] Market Logic - COMEX gold and COMEX silver fluctuated on Tuesday, continuing to move horizontally around $5000 per ounce and $80 per ounce respectively. The Middle East conflict continues to affect the market [1] Trading Strategy - Market short - term uncertainty is large, and investors should control positions to prevent risks [2]

Economic Outlook - The US economy is currently experiencing three significant growth tailwinds: increased AI spending, an industrial renaissance focused on reshoring production, and government spending due to lower corporate and household taxes [1] - Inflation remains a challenge, currently at around 3%, which is above the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, complicating monetary policy [1] Oil Prices and Inflation - The rise in oil prices from $65 to $100 per barrel is projected to increase headline inflation by 0.7%, creating additional pressure on the Federal Reserve to adjust interest rates [1] - The national average price of gasoline has surpassed $3.50 per gallon, potentially posing a political issue for the current administration ahead of midterm elections [1] Global Trade and Energy Supply - The Strait of Hormuz is critical for global trade, and its current blockage is affecting the flow of goods, including essential inputs for various industries such as fertilizers and green energy [4][5] - The US, as a net oil exporter, may benefit from rising oil prices, while many other countries, particularly in Europe, are facing increased costs as net oil importers [3][4] - The disruption in LNG supply is particularly concerning for Europe, India, and parts of Asia, which rely heavily on natural gas, potentially leading to depleted reserves and economic risks [6][7]

Group 1 - Iran is retaliating against U.S. and Israeli strikes by attacking its Middle Eastern neighbors, escalating conflict in the region [1] - The conflict now includes countries such as Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and the United Arab Emirates, as well as Qatar and Bahrain, which host U.S. military bases [1] Group 2 - The tough jobs report adds pressure on the White House, potentially influencing a reconsideration of military policy in the Middle East amid domestic economic concerns [2] - The jobs report may also impact future Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, which the Trump administration has been advocating for [2]

Group 1 - The ongoing war in the Middle East, particularly the conflict involving Iran, is influencing monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve, leading to fewer anticipated rate cuts in 2026 [1][3][7] - Futures markets now predict only one quarter-point rate cut this year, a significant change from previous expectations of two cuts [3][4] - The spike in oil prices, with Brent crude rising from about $71 to $85 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate increasing from about $65 to $80, is a major factor affecting interest rate forecasts [5][6] Group 2 - The Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for global petroleum transport, is currently at risk due to the conflict, affecting oil supply and prices [6] - Former Fed Chair Janet Yellen indicated that the war's impact on economic growth and inflationary pressures will likely make the Fed more hesitant to cut interest rates [7]

Core Viewpoint - The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 basis points by March is 4.1%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 95.9% [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Interest Rate Projections - By April, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut rises to 16.4%, with a 83% chance of maintaining the current rate and a 0.5% chance of a cumulative 50 basis point cut [1] - By June, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut increases to 44% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market experienced significant price fluctuations over the past week, with spot prices moving within a range exceeding $150/oz, yet this period is viewed as a healthy consolidation at elevated price levels [3]. Market Activity - Trading volumes were notably lower on Monday due to the US President's Day holiday, resulting in minimal activity across American trade desks [4]. - A consensus to resume liquidation trends led to downward pressure on gold prices, which fell to a weekly low near $4,860/oz [5]. - Following the low point, the return of US desks brought renewed investor interest, leading to a rally in gold prices that pushed them back above $5,000 [6]. Influencing Factors - Anticipation of upcoming macroeconomic data contributed to expectations that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) might lower interest rates sooner, supporting gold prices [7]. - The release of Fed meeting minutes indicated a split committee, maintaining rate-cut expectations and providing support for gold around the $5,000 level [8]. - Rising geopolitical risks prompted a risk-off sentiment late in the week, further lifting gold prices above $5,000 and towards a potential close of approximately $5,100 [8]. - Weak Q4 GDP data and a Supreme Court ruling against the Trump tariff strategy may shift focus to Federal Reserve communications and White House messaging in the upcoming week [8].

Core Viewpoint - The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 basis points by March is 5.9%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 94.1% [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Interest Rate Projections - By April, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut rises to 20.5%, with a 78.5% chance of maintaining the current rate and a 1.0% chance of a cumulative 50 basis point cut [1] - By June, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut increases significantly to 49.8% [1]