来源：杨易君黄金与金融投资 周五国际现货金价以3338.40美元开盘，最高上试3378.52美元，最低下探3321.19美元，报收3371.69美元，上涨33.36美元，涨幅1.00%，振幅1.72%，日K 线呈先抑后扬长阳线。 鲍威尔鹰调转鸽声 美元飞流直下 金价旱地拔葱 2025年08月24日 威尔鑫投资咨询研究中心 （文） 首席分析师 杨易君 周五美元指数以98.63点开盘，最高上试98.83点，最低下探97.54点，报收97.72点，下跌940点，跌幅0.95%，振幅1.31%，日K线呈先扬后抑长阴线。 就日K线形态表象而言，美元指数周五长阴似一把"断头铡"，一举斩断渐渐趋暖的5、10、20、30、60日均线，使得短期美元霎时晴转阴。美元指数最近 两周的最高点、最低点都出现在周五，周五长阴乃标准的阶段"断头铡"长阴，示意美元阶段后市蒙阴。 与美元指数阶段断头铡相对应的K线形态与均线趋势，需要注意贵金指数、金价、银价、铂金价是否出现支撑市场上行的"金蜘蛛"，即5、10、20、30、 60日均线粘合构成上行支撑。 如周五金价、美元盘面信息图示： 北京时间13点（A位置）前，金价、美元呈反向波动关系，但金价 ...

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium went better than expected.In the days leading up to the annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, all eyes were firmly on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and his speech on Friday, Aug. 22.All month, investors have been back and forth on whether the Fed will cut interest rates at its September meeting. At one point, the market seemed certain. Then the market started to let doubts creep in, as the econom ...

2025年8月21日，实物黄金金大福黄金报价1001元/克，相比上一个交易日下跌了4元/克。铂金价格今天 报价503元/克，相比上一个交易日上涨了2元/克。 附表： 金大福 黄金价格 铂金价格 单位 2025年8月21日 1001 503 元/克 2025年8月20日 997 501 元/克 金投网提示：以上报价仅供参考，据此交易，风险自担。 基本面： 美联储自12月以来一直维持利率稳定，CME的FedWatch工具预测9月降息的可能性为85%。 美联储主席 鲍威尔可能将于周五（8月22日）在杰克森霍尔研讨会发表主题演讲，投资者将关注他是支持劳动力市 场扶持措施，还是继续关注通胀风险。 研讨会将于8月21日至23日举行。 ...

美联储9月降息25个基点的概率为81.9% 据CME"美联储观察"：美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为18.1%，降息25个基点的概率为81.9%；美联储 10月维持利率不变的概率为8%，累计降息25个基点的概率为46.4%，累计降息50个基点的概率为 45.5%。 8月21日，人民币兑美元中间价报7.1287，上调97.00点。 美联储会议纪要：同意维持利率不变 经济前景不确定性仍然较高 美联储公布联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）7月29日至30日的会议纪要。会议纪要显示，美联储同意将 联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%-4.5%之间。在本次会议的货币政策讨论中，委员们一致认为，尽管 净出口波动影响了数据，但近标表明，上半年经济活动增长有所放缓。通胀率仍然略高，经济前景的不 确定性仍然较高。 来源：新浪网 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com ...

8月15日，据CME《美联储观察》显示，美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为7.9%，降息25个基点的概率 为92.1%。美联储10月维持利率不变的概率为3.2%，累计降息25个基点的概率为41.7%，累计降息50个 基点的概率为55.2%。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental information, macro news, and capital flows. Key events include Malaysia's increase in the September export tax on crude palm oil, expected low sunflower seed production in Ukraine, and potential impacts of weather on US crops. [1][9][12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market Quotes - The closing prices and percentage changes of various futures, including Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude, US crude oil, US soybeans, and others, are presented. Currency exchange rates such as the US dollar index and several other currencies against the US dollar are also provided. [1] Spot Market Quotes - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes for DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are given. CNF premiums and quotes for imported soybeans from different origins are also included. [2] Important Fundamental Information Weather in Production Areas - US soybean - producing states are expected to have higher - than - normal temperatures and mostly median precipitation from August 18th to 22nd. A slow - moving front in the US Midwest will bring rain and temperature changes, which may benefit some crops but also cause flooding in some areas. [5][8] International Supply - related News - Malaysia has raised the reference price and export tax of crude palm oil for September. Indonesia has saved at least $3.68 billion in foreign exchange through the use of palm - based biodiesel. Forecasts for US soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil export sales are provided. Brazil's soybean, soybean meal, and corn export volumes for a specific period are predicted. Argentina's soybean sales data is released. Ukraine's rapeseed and sunflower seed production is expected to decline. The Baltic Dry Index has risen. [9][10][11][12] Domestic Supply and Demand - On August 13th, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased, while the trading volume of soybean meal decreased. The national oil mill operating rate declined. Price changes of various agricultural products and livestock products are reported. [14][15][16] Macro News International News - Market expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts in September and October are high. The US Treasury Secretary believes the Fed should cut rates. US mortgage application and oil reserve data are provided. The IEA has lowered global oil demand growth forecasts. UAE's refined oil inventory has decreased. [18][19] Domestic News - The US dollar/renminbi exchange rate has decreased (renminbi appreciation). The central bank has conducted reverse repurchase operations and achieved a net withdrawal of funds. China's July financial statistics show the growth of M2, M1, and M0. [20] Capital Flows - On August 13th, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 27.391 billion yuan, with 5.129 billion yuan in commodity futures (including inflows in agricultural and chemical futures and outflows in black - series futures) and 22.262 billion yuan in stock index futures. [24]

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration is actively seeking a successor to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, with Christopher Waller being a leading candidate due to his willingness to base policy on forecasts rather than existing data and his deep understanding of the Federal Reserve system [1][4] Group 1: Candidates for Federal Reserve Chair - Christopher Waller is currently the most prominent candidate for the Federal Reserve Chair position, having met with Trump's team to discuss the role [1] - Other candidates include former Federal Reserve official Kevin Warsh and current White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, both of whom are also in contention for the position [1][2] - Trump has narrowed the candidate list to three individuals, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bentsen, Vice President JD Vance, and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick [2] Group 2: Waller's Background and Experience - Waller was nominated to the Federal Reserve in 2020 and previously served as the research director and executive vice president of the St. Louis Fed [4] - He has engaged in public debates with influential economists, including former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, and has successfully argued that inflation could be reduced without significantly increasing unemployment [4] - Waller has emphasized the importance of the Federal Reserve's independence for the proper functioning of the U.S. economy [4] Group 3: Recent Federal Reserve Decisions - Despite pressure from Trump, the Federal Reserve decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate, with Waller and fellow board member Michelle Bowman voting against this decision, advocating for a 25 basis point cut due to signs of a weakening labor market [3] - A recent employment report indicated a sharp slowdown in job growth over the past three months, supporting Waller and Bowman's dissenting opinions [3] - The Federal Reserve's decision-making process has shown a divide in opinions, with some members believing the labor market remains strong and advocating for patience in adjusting interest rates [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent weak employment report has sparked discussions about whether the Federal Reserve will repeat last year's strategy of maintaining rates in July and significantly cutting them in September [1][3]. Group 1: Employment Data and Market Reactions - The July non-farm payroll data showed a significant slowdown in the U.S. labor market, with numbers falling well below expectations and previous months' employment figures being revised downwards [1]. - Following the weak employment report, the probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September surged from under 40% to nearly 90% [1][3]. Group 2: Historical Context and Comparisons - The current situation has drawn parallels to last summer when the Federal Reserve also chose not to cut rates in July, but a subsequent weak employment report led to a 50 basis point cut in September [3]. - Notably, the economic context differs this year, as inflation concerns are heightened due to tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, contrasting with last year's declining inflation [4]. Group 3: Future Projections and Considerations - Rick Rieder from BlackRock indicated that if the labor market continues to weaken, with job additions remaining below 100,000, the Federal Reserve may initiate rate cuts, with a 50 basis point cut in September being a possibility [4]. - The upcoming employment report and inflation data will be crucial in determining whether the Federal Reserve will adopt a cautious approach or respond decisively to the changing economic landscape [4].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced that Governor Adriana Kugler will resign early, effective August 8, creating a significant vacancy amid President Trump's push for lower interest rates [1][2] - Kugler was appointed by former President Biden in September 2023 and was the first Hispanic member of the Federal Reserve Board, previously serving as a professor at Georgetown University and a representative to the World Bank [1] - Kugler's resignation may disrupt the timeline for the succession process of current Fed Chair Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May next year, with Trump threatening to dismiss Powell [2] Group 2 - During the recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, there was notable dissent within the Fed, with Governors Waller and Bowman voting against the decision to maintain interest rates, advocating for a 25 basis point cut [2][3] - The last time there were dissenting votes from Board members was in September of the previous year, indicating that such occurrences are relatively rare [2] - Recent labor market data showed a significant drop in job growth, with July's non-farm payrolls increasing by only 73,000, well below the expected 115,000, and the unemployment rate rising to 4.2% [3]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China has maintained the one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) at 3.00% and the five-year LPR at 3.50%, indicating a stable monetary policy environment [1][3]. Summary by Category LPR Data Overview - The one-year LPR remains unchanged at 3.00% as of July 21, 2025, consistent with the previous month [1]. - The five-year LPR is also held steady at 3.50%, unchanged from June 2025 [1]. - Historical data shows that the one-year LPR has been at 3.00% since April 2025, while the five-year LPR has been at 3.50% since the same period [2]. Market Implications - The decision to keep the LPR stable suggests that the central bank is likely prioritizing economic stability and growth over immediate monetary easing [3]. - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will maintain its interest rates in July, with a 95.3% probability, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy in the global context [3].