All right. We spend a lot of time looking at stats about the markets and the and Q4 and seasonality. Is that something you're paying attention to. Do you think that's something that global investors are paying attention to.>> Yeah, we tend not to pay too much attention to what happens in one quarter, per se. And actually, if you take a step back and if you're an investor, it's been a pretty good year. Uh many asset classes have done incredibly well this year on a year-to- date basis.So even if you set aside ...

早上好！ 据CME"美联储观察"：美联储12月维持利率不变的概率为60.4%，降息25个基点的概率为39.6%。 消息面上，据央视报道，一项最新民调显示，美国民众对特朗普政府的经济政策日益感到不满，整体经济情绪显著恶化。 调查中，76%的受访者认为美国经济状况"不佳"，较7月的67%进一步上升。多数受访者表示，包括医疗和住房费用等在内，各项生活成本持续上涨。 在"迟到48天"之后，美国劳工统计局终于公布9月非农就业数据。美国9月非农就业人数增加11.9万人，市场预估为增加5.2万人，前值为增加2.2万人。美 国9月失业率为4.4%，预估为4.3%，前值为4.3%。 数据公布后，美股期货拉升，道琼斯指数期货涨0.80%，标普500指数期货涨1.49%，纳斯达克100指数期货涨2.02%，然而截至收盘，道琼斯指数期货跌 0.84%，标普500指数期货跌1.56%，纳斯达克100指数期货跌2.15%。 三大股指收盘也普跌，道琼斯指数跌0.84%，纳斯达克指数跌2.15%，标普指数跌1.55%。个股方面，英伟达跌超3%，特斯拉跌超2%，甲骨文跌超6%。 利率互换市场继续显示，美联储12月降息的可能性不大。数据公布后， ...

Core Viewpoint - Most Gulf stock markets experienced subdued trading due to falling oil prices, with investors awaiting a delayed U.S. jobs report for insights on the Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Gulf stock markets were generally subdued in early trade on Wednesday [1] - The decline in oil prices contributed to the lackluster performance of these markets [1] Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Investors are closely monitoring a delayed U.S. jobs report for indications regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate path [1]

【11月16日CME"美联储观察"公布美联储利率调整概率】11月16日，CME"美联储观察"显示，美联储 12月降息25个基点的概率为44.4%，维持利率不变的概率为55.6%。此外，美联储到明年1月累计降息25 个基点的概率为48.6%，维持利率不变的概率为34.7%，累计降息50个基点的概率为16.7%。 本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 ...

And we have Kevin Hanks from the CBOE. The pre-bell playbook. Well, it's done.It passes through the House and now we can sort of rest easy that the 43 days are finished. At the same time, we won't be getting some of the reports cuz they didn't have the people to do them, right. >> Good morning, Nicole.Yes. The good news is the government shutdown's over. President Trump signed the bill last night reopening the government.Now for the financial markets, Caroline Levit, the uh White House press secretary, came ...

Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve (Fed) is currently uncertain about its next steps, with expectations leaning towards a pause in rate cuts for December, following a reduction of 150 basis points over the past year [2][3] - The economy is showing signs of resilience, with earnings reports for the third quarter indicating a 14% year-over-year increase, surpassing initial expectations of a 6.5% increase [7][5] - Despite concerns about inflation and the labor market, the overall economic indicators suggest that the economy does not require further support through interest rate cuts [8][14] Market Performance - The S&P 500 is projected to reach 7000 by the end of the year, with a potential increase to 7700 by the end of next year, indicating a continued bullish market outlook [16][17] - The market has already reacted positively to the potential reopening of the US government, with expectations of a year-end rally [19][20] Gold Market Insights - The price of gold has been influenced by geopolitical events, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the accumulation of gold by central banks [24][26] - Predictions for gold prices suggest a rise to 5000 by the end of next year and 10,000 by the end of the decade, driven by both international and domestic factors [26][27] Currency and Stablecoin Trends - The US dollar is expected to weaken, but there is a contrarian view suggesting that stablecoins, which are backed by liquid assets like Treasury bills, may bolster the dollar's strength [27][30] - Emerging markets are increasingly adopting stablecoins as a viable financial solution, indicating a shift in currency dynamics [30]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4%, aligning with market expectations [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower rates is influenced by the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, which has hindered access to key economic data, including non-farm payroll figures [1] - If the government shutdown does not cause further disruptions, the Federal Reserve will continue to receive employment and inflation reports, which could impact future rate decisions [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - Improvements in employment conditions or a surge in inflation may lead the Federal Reserve to maintain current interest rates, although the possibility of a rate cut in December remains [1] - The more hawkish tone from the recent FOMC meeting suggests that there may only be one opportunity for a rate cut in the first half of next year [1]

Core Insights - Bitcoin experienced a significant decline, dropping to as low as $110,000, a 3% decrease following Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's comments regarding the uncertainty of a December rate cut [1][2] - Despite the anticipated rate cut of 0.25%, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies fell due to Powell's hawkish remarks, indicating a more cautious market sentiment [2][4] - Sentiment on prediction markets for Bitcoin has also decreased sharply, with the likelihood of Bitcoin rising to $120,000 dropping from 75% to 58% [3] Market Reactions - The sell-off in Bitcoin is attributed to a combination of "sell the news" behavior and Powell's hawkish statements, rather than the rate cut itself [4] - Institutional investment remains strong, with Bitcoin ETFs seeing net inflows of $202.48 million on October 28, totaling $62.3 billion in cumulative net inflows [5] Technical Analysis - Bitcoin's price opened at $112,925 and fell to a low of $109,265, indicating strong selling pressure [6] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin is at 44.87, suggesting a neutral zone with a slight bearish tilt, while the four-hour chart shows an RSI of 36.38, indicating increasing selling pressure [7][8]

Group 1 - Treasury Secretary Scott Besson has confirmed five finalists to succeed Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, with President Trump expected to make a decision by year-end [1] - The market is currently focused on the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting and the state of the labor market, rather than the selection of the new Fed Chair [2][3] - There is an expectation that the Fed will cut interest rates this week, with attention on guidance for future meetings, particularly December [5][6] Group 2 - The labor market is showing signs of slowing, but consumer data remains strong, indicating resilience in the economy [8][10] - Earnings reports from companies are generally positive, with net profit margins for S&P 500 companies above their five-year average for six consecutive quarters [21][22] - There is optimism regarding job growth and capital expenditure outlook, with expectations for a broadening of economic activity beyond just healthcare and AI sectors [15][31] Group 3 - The US and China are reportedly moving towards a framework for a potential trade agreement, which could positively impact both economies [17][20] - Corporate earnings season is ongoing, with high expectations for tech earnings and a focus on how markets will respond to these results [26][30] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is anticipated, with discussions around the end of quantitative tightening gaining traction [32][35]

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market indices collectively rose, reaching new historical highs, with the Nasdaq up 1.15% and the S&P 500 up 0.79% for the week [1] - Major technology stocks saw significant gains, with Micron Technology rising nearly 6% and Ford Motor Company increasing over 12%, marking its best single-day performance since March 2020 [1] - Tesla's stock fell over 3% due to a decline in net profit despite a 12% year-on-year revenue increase, reporting $28.1 billion in revenue and a net profit of $1.37 billion [1] Group 2 - Gold and silver experienced slight declines, with spot gold ending a nine-week rising streak, down 3.35% for the week, while COMEX gold futures fell 2.25% [2] - The WTI crude oil futures settled at $61.5 per barrel, down 0.47%, but up 7.6% for the week, while Brent crude oil fell 0.08% to $65.94 per barrel, also up 7.59% for the week [2] - The U.S. government shutdown may prevent the release of inflation data next month, marking the first time in over 70 years that such data could be missing, which could create uncertainty for the Federal Reserve in adjusting interest rates [2][3]