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Risk-off 2025 brings largecaps back on top after two-year hiatus; what does 2026 hold?
The Economic Times· 2025-12-16 04:28
Core Insights - The analysis indicates a rotation of leadership between large caps and broader markets over the past five years, with 2025 emerging as a year where large caps have regained their defensive edge [1][15] - The post-pandemic liquidity boom in 2021 favored broader markets, with the BSE Largecap index returning 25%, while midcaps and smallcaps outperformed with returns of 39% and 63% respectively [1][15] - In 2022, large caps showed resilience with a 4.73% increase, while midcaps and smallcaps struggled, highlighting their vulnerability during risk-off phases [1][2][15] - A strong risk appetite returned in 2023, leading to significant rebounds in midcaps and smallcaps, which rallied 46% and 48% respectively, compared to a 19% rise in the BSE Largecap index [5][15] - As of 2025, large caps are on track to outperform mid and small caps, with the BSE Largecap index rising nearly 9% while the BSE Smallcap index declined by 8% [1][15] Market Performance - The BSE Largecap index has shown a mixed performance in 2025, with notable volatility; it fell 1.7% in January and 6.6% in February, but rebounded sharply by 7% in March [6][7][15] - The first five months of 2025 saw the India VIX rise to a 52-week high of 23.19, indicating increased market volatility, before settling around 10, a decrease of over 55% [8][15] - Out of 121 stocks in the BSE Largecap index, 72 have delivered positive returns of up to 54% in 2025, with 55 stocks achieving double-digit returns [10][15] Future Outlook - Brokerage Motilal Oswal Financial Services anticipates that large caps will continue to outperform in the medium term, contingent on foreign institutional investors returning as net buyers in Indian equities [12][15] - Kranthi Bathini from WealthMills Securities suggests that 2026 could favor large-cap stocks, as they have undergone a time-wise correction and are poised for the next rally [12][15] - The wealth creation study by Motilal Oswal indicates that the period from 2020 to 2025 has seen the highest wealth creation in 30 years, with the top 100 companies adding ₹148 trillion [15]
Banking and finance stocks to watch: SBI, HDFC Bank, RBL Bank, Can Fin Homes
BusinessLine· 2025-12-16 02:12
Group 1 - HDFC Bank has received approval from the RBI to acquire up to 9.5% of the paid-up share capital or voting rights in IndusInd Bank, valid until December 14, 2026 [1] - The approval is contingent on ensuring that the aggregate holding of HDFC Bank and its group entities does not exceed 9.5% of IndusInd Bank's total paid-up share capital [1] Group 2 - Can Fin Homes Limited has declared an interim dividend of Rs 7 (350%) per equity share for the Financial Year 2025-26 [2] Group 3 - The Union Government appointed Ravi Ranjan as the new Managing Director of State Bank of India, succeeding Vinay M Tonse [3] - SBI will sign a €150 million line of credit with Germany's KfW to fund climate-friendly energy projects [3] Group 4 - Buvanesh Tharashankar, CFO of RBL Bank Limited, has resigned to pursue opportunities outside the bank, with an interim successor already identified [4]
Sensex end lower by 54 points on foreign fund outflows
Rediff· 2025-12-15 11:31
Market Performance - Equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty ended marginally lower due to a weak trend in global markets and persistent foreign fund outflows [1][3] - The 30-share BSE Sensex dipped by 54.30 points, or 0.06 percent, closing at 85,213.36, with an intraday decline of 427.34 points, or 0.50 percent, to 84,840.32 [3] - The 50-share NSE Nifty edged lower by 19.65 points, or 0.08 percent, to 26,027.30 [4] Sector Performance - Major laggards from Sensex firms included Mahindra & Mahindra, Maruti, Adani Ports, Bajaj Finserv, Titan, and HDFC Bank [4] - Gainers included Hindustan Unilever, Trent, HCL Tech, Asian Paints, and Tata Steel [4] Foreign Investment Trends - Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) offloaded equities worth Rs 1,114.22 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) bought stocks worth Rs 3,868.94 crore [6] - Persistent foreign fund outflows and a weak rupee have kept markets in a narrow range, with currency volatility expected to continue until clarity on the India-US trade deal emerges [7] Global Market Influence - Asian markets, including South Korea's Kospi, Japan's Nikkei 225, Shanghai's SSE Composite, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng, ended lower [6] - Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, increased by 0.15 percent to $61.21 per barrel [7]
SBI cuts FD interest rates from today: Comparisons with HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank and Canara Bank fixed deposit rates
The Economic Times· 2025-12-15 09:36
SynopsisFD interest rate in December: State Bank of India has revised its fixed deposit interest rates, reducing them by 5 basis points for tenures between 2 to less than 3 years. General citizens will now earn 6.40%, while senior citizens will receive 6.90%. These changes place SBI's FD rates in comparison with those offered by HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, and Canara Bank. ...
Nifty valuations near average; earnings upside likely from banks, manufacturing: Aditya Kondawar
The Economic Times· 2025-12-15 04:17
Core Viewpoint - Indian equity markets are expected to deliver positive earnings surprises over the next one to two years, particularly in the banking, manufacturing, and auto-linked sectors, despite recent volatility in headline indices [9]. Banking and Financial Services - Banking and financial services are identified as the backbone of India's economic expansion, with expectations of increased demand for housing loans, retail credit, and corporate borrowing as the economy moves towards a $7–8 trillion target [3][9]. - Private sector banks are preferred, with select public sector banks also seen as valuable. There is growing foreign institutional investor interest, indicated by significant transactions involving banks like RBL Bank and IDFC First Bank [9]. Manufacturing Sector - Manufacturing is highlighted as a key theme, with strong capital expenditure (capex) intentions from companies, benefiting the entire ecosystem as capex cycles gain momentum [6][9]. - The opportunity in manufacturing extends beyond original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) to the entire supply chain [6]. Small and Mid-Cap Stocks - Small- and mid-cap stocks have faced a challenging period, described as "death by a thousand cuts," but are expected to recover as market stability improves over the next two to three months [7][10]. - A broader recovery in this segment is anticipated to be catalyzed by progress on trade agreements, with expectations for a comprehensive India-US trade deal [10]. Market Valuations and Growth Expectations - The Nifty index is currently trading at approximately 24 times earnings, close to its long-term average, with the market factoring in 10–12% earnings per share (EPS) growth over the next two years, although there may be upside surprises [1][9]. - Government measures such as tax cuts and initiatives to spur consumption are expected to support earnings momentum across various sectors [2][9].
Lending rates moving lower to raise pressure on bank NIMs
The Economic Times· 2025-12-14 19:14
Core Viewpoint - Banks' net interest margins (NIMs) are expected to face renewed pressure following recent cuts in the marginal cost of funds-based lending rate (MCLR) by major banks, including State Bank of India (SBI), which may delay margin recovery due to limited scope for deposit rate cuts amid competition from alternative investment options like mutual funds [1][10]. Group 1: MCLR Rate Cuts - SBI has reduced its benchmark MCLR rate by five basis points across all tenures, effective from December 15 [2][4]. - Other banks, including Indian Overseas Bank (IOB), Bank of Baroda, and HDFC Bank, have also implemented similar five basis point cuts in their MCLR rates [10]. - The interest rate on SBI's special Amrit Vrishti 444-day deposit scheme has been cut by 15 basis points to 6.45%, while the rate for the two to less than three years deposit bucket has been reduced from 6.45% to 6.40% [2]. Group 2: Impact on NIMs - The recent MCLR cuts are expected to exert pressure on bank margins, as deposit rates have limited room for further reductions [7][10]. - Interest rates on fresh loans have decreased by 76 basis points since the RBI began its rate cut cycle in February, while rates on outstanding loans have fallen by 58 basis points [8]. - More than 85% of bank loans are priced via an external benchmark or through MCLR, meaning that any cuts directly impact margins, especially if deposit rates remain stable [10]. Group 3: Future Expectations - Bankers anticipate that the improvement in margins expected in the third quarter may be further delayed due to the current rate environment [7][11]. - A fund manager at Nirmal Bang PMS predicts that bank margins may only improve in the first quarter of the next fiscal year, indicating a slowdown in expected margin improvements [11][12]. - Growth during the busy season is expected to come from higher-yielding segments like personal and SME loans, which could help mitigate some of the negative impacts on margins [12].
Top market movers: Eight of top-10 firms lose Rs 79,129 crore in value; Bajaj Finance, ICICI Bank lead weekly drag
The Times Of India· 2025-12-14 09:42
Market Capitalization Trends - The combined market capitalization of eight of India's ten most-valued companies fell by Rs 79,129.21 crore last week, reflecting a broadly weak trend in equities [4][6] - The BSE benchmark index dropped by 444.71 points, or 0.51%, during the same period [4][6] Major Losers - Bajaj Finance experienced the largest decline, with a market cap drop of Rs 19,289.7 crore, bringing its valuation to Rs 6,33,106.69 crore [4][6] - ICICI Bank followed closely, losing Rs 18,516.31 crore, resulting in a valuation of Rs 9,76,668.15 crore [4][6] - Other significant losses included Bharti Airtel (down Rs 13,884.63 crore to Rs 11,87,948.11 crore), State Bank of India (down Rs 7,846.02 crore to Rs 8,88,816.17 crore), Infosys (down Rs 7,145.95 crore to Rs 6,64,220.58 crore), TCS (down Rs 6,783.92 crore to Rs 11,65,078.45 crore), and HDFC Bank (down Rs 4,460.93 crore to Rs 15,38,558.71 crore) [4][6] Major Gainers - In contrast, Reliance Industries added Rs 20,434.03 crore to reach a market cap of Rs 21,05,652.74 crore, maintaining its position as India's most valuable company [5][6] - Larsen & Toubro also saw gains, increasing by Rs 4,910.82 crore to a valuation of Rs 5,60,370.38 crore [5][6] Company Rankings - The current ranking of India's most valuable companies is led by Reliance Industries, followed by HDFC Bank, Bharti Airtel, TCS, ICICI Bank, State Bank of India, Infosys, Bajaj Finance, Larsen & Toubro, and LIC [5][6]
Mcap of 8 of top-10 most valued firms erodes by ₹79,129 cr; Bajaj Finance, ICICI Bank hit hard
BusinessLine· 2025-12-14 07:34
Market Valuation Summary - The combined market valuation of eight of the top-10 most valued domestic firms decreased by ₹79,129.21 crore last week, with Bajaj Finance and ICICI Bank experiencing the largest declines [1] - The BSE benchmark index fell by 444.71 points or 0.51 percent during the same period [1] Individual Company Performance - Bajaj Finance's market capitalization dropped by ₹19,289.7 crore to ₹6,33,106.69 crore [2] - ICICI Bank's valuation decreased by ₹18,516.31 crore to ₹9,76,668.15 crore [2] - Bharti Airtel's market capitalization fell by ₹13,884.63 crore to ₹11,87,948.11 crore [3] - State Bank of India's valuation diminished by ₹7,846.02 crore to ₹8,88,816.17 crore [3] - Infosys lost ₹7,145.95 crore, bringing its market valuation to ₹6,64,220.58 crore [3] - Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) saw a decline of ₹6,783.92 crore to ₹11,65,078.45 crore [3] - HDFC Bank's market capitalization dipped by ₹4,460.93 crore to ₹15,38,558.71 crore [3] - Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC) experienced a valuation erosion of ₹1,201.75 crore to ₹5,48,820.05 crore [3] Gainers in the Market - Reliance Industries' market capitalization increased by ₹20,434.03 crore to ₹21,05,652.74 crore, maintaining its position as the most valued firm [4] - Larsen & Toubro's valuation rose by ₹4,910.82 crore to ₹5,60,370.38 crore [4]
Mcap of 8 of 10 most valued firms erodes by Rs 79,129 cr; Bajaj Finance, ICICI Bank hit hard
The Economic Times· 2025-12-14 07:16
Market Overview - The BSE benchmark index declined by 444.71 points or 0.51 percent last week [1][7] - The combined market valuation of eight of the top-10 most valued domestic firms eroded by Rs 79,129.21 crore amid a largely bearish trend in equities [7] Company Valuations - Bajaj Finance's market capitalisation dropped by Rs 19,289.7 crore to Rs 6,33,106.69 crore [7] - ICICI Bank's valuation tumbled by Rs 18,516.31 crore to Rs 9,76,668.15 crore [4][7] - Bharti Airtel's market capitalisation tanked by Rs 13,884.63 crore to Rs 11,87,948.11 crore [5][7] - State Bank of India's valuation diminished by Rs 7,846.02 crore to Rs 8,88,816.17 crore [5][7] - Infosys lost Rs 7,145.95 crore from its market valuation, which stood at Rs 6,64,220.58 crore [6][7] - TCS's market capitalisation declined by Rs 6,783.92 crore to Rs 11,65,078.45 crore [6][7] - HDFC Bank's valuation dipped by Rs 4,460.93 crore to Rs 15,38,558.71 crore [6][7] - LIC's valuation eroded by Rs 1,201.75 crore to Rs 5,48,820.05 crore [6][7] - Reliance Industries' market capitalisation increased by Rs 20,434.03 crore to Rs 21,05,652.74 crore, maintaining its position as the most valued firm [7] - Larsen & Toubro added Rs 4,910.82 crore, taking its valuation to Rs 5,60,370.38 crore [6][7] Top Valued Firms - Reliance Industries remains the most valued firm, followed by HDFC Bank, Bharti Airtel, TCS, ICICI Bank, State Bank of India, Infosys, Bajaj Finance, Larsen & Toubro, and LIC [7]
Banks return to physical verifications as frauds bite hard
The Economic Times· 2025-12-12 00:30
This is a U turn of sorts for banks that were digitising almost every service possible, simplifying operations into a single-click. But the challenge of mule accounts and fraud attacks are forcing them to introduce physical checks into their digital onboarding processes.Lenders such as HDFC Bank, State Bank of India, Also Read: Financial fraudsters turning business accounts into mules for illicit fund transfersThe tightening of processes could also be related to the Reserve Bank of India imposing fines on b ...