Economic Overview - The top 10% of earners account for nearly 50% of all consumer spending, while the bottom 80% are only keeping pace with inflation, indicating a potential risk if high earners become more cautious in their spending [1] - The August Bureau of Labor Statistics report revealed only 22,000 jobs added, with the unemployment rate reaching 4.3%, the highest in nearly four years [2] - ADP data indicated a loss of 32,000 private sector jobs in September, suggesting ongoing employment challenges [3] GDP and Consumer Spending - GDP growth was revised to 3.8% for the second quarter, up from a previous estimate of 3.3%, marking a significant recovery from a -0.6% growth in the first quarter [5] - The increase in GDP was attributed to a reduction in imports and a greater rise in consumer spending, particularly in transportation, financial, and insurance services [4] Public Sentiment and Economic Outlook - A Fannie Mae survey found that 67% of consumers believe the economy is "on the wrong track," a 3-point increase from August [8] - Pew Research Center reported that 74% of U.S. adults view the economy as "fair/poor," with 42% attributing their negative outlook to rising prices and personal expenses [9] Investment Strategies - Experts suggest diversifying investments to include alternative assets, such as gold and real estate, to mitigate risks associated with stock market volatility [11][12] - Gold prices have reached a historic high of $4,350 per ounce, making it an attractive option for investors seeking stability [12] - Real estate investment opportunities are available through platforms like Arrived, allowing individuals to invest in shares of vacation homes or rental properties with minimal capital [14]

Core Insights - Mortgage rates are trending down, with the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate falling to 6.19%, which is 35 basis points lower than a year ago [1][17] - The 15-year fixed mortgage rate also decreased to 5.44%, marking a decline of more than a quarter point compared to last October [1][17] - High refinancing activity continues, accounting for over half of all mortgage activity for the sixth consecutive week due to lower rates [2] Current Mortgage Rates - The current national average rates for various mortgage types include: - 30-year fixed: 6.19% - 15-year fixed: 5.44% - 5/1 ARM: 6.26% - 7/1 ARM: 6.41% [1][6][17] Future Projections - Industry forecasts suggest that mortgage rates will remain stable for the rest of the year, with the 30-year rate expected to stay at 6% or higher for most of 2026 [15][18] - Fannie Mae projects a slight decrease to 5.9% in Q4 2026, while the Mortgage Bankers Association anticipates a 30-year mortgage rate of 6.4% by the end of 2025 [15][18]

Core Insights - Freddie Mac is highlighted as a significant player in the context of a pending trade associated with Trump, with a focus on its securities [1] - The analysis emphasizes a value investing approach, advocating for a long-term investment mindset rather than short-selling strategies [1] Company Analysis - The article primarily discusses Freddie Mac's securities, indicating a potential for investment opportunities [1] - The author has previously assigned Buy ratings to Fannie Mae securities, suggesting a positive outlook for similar investments in Freddie Mac [1] Investment Strategy - The investment philosophy is centered around value investing and maintaining an owner's mindset, which aligns with long-term investment goals [1] - The author does not engage in short-selling, indicating a preference for holding positions rather than betting against stocks [1]

Core Insights - Dipping mortgage rates are linked to improving sentiment among bond investors, particularly in mortgage bonds, creating opportunities for the Vanguard Mortgage-Backed Securities Index Fund ETF Shares (VMBS) [1] - Declining interest rates are making real estate more affordable, potentially revitalizing the housing industry as the spread between 30-year mortgage rates and the 10-year Treasury rate narrows [2] - The VMBS fund offers a low-cost entry into mortgage bonds with a 0.03% expense ratio and a 4.04% 30-day SEC yield, making it an attractive option for fixed income investors as rates fall [3] Fund Characteristics - VMBS has over 1,400 holdings, providing deep diversification and focusing on higher-quality credit through MBS assets guaranteed by quasi-governmental institutions and government-sponsored enterprises [4] - The fund's average effective maturity is close to seven years, positioning it as an intermediate bond fund that helps mitigate rate risk while offering higher yields [4] Housing Market Resilience - The housing market has shown resilience despite rising mortgage rates, which peaked above 7% in 2022, indicating that fears of a significant market crash were unfounded [5][6] - As mortgage rates decline, confidence in the housing market is expected to increase, positively impacting assets like mortgage-backed securities [6]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates, but this may not significantly impact the housing market due to persistently high mortgage rates projected to remain elevated through 2026 [2][4] - The Mortgage Bankers Association forecasts mortgage rates could reach 6.5% by the end of 2026, while Fannie Mae anticipates rates at or above 6% until late 2026 [3][8] - High mortgage rates have contributed to a slowdown in real estate activity, affecting GDP and limiting buyer mobility [4][7] Economic Impact - Elevated mortgage rates are a critical factor in the sluggish housing market, which has seen the slowest home sales in decades due to high borrowing costs and rising housing prices [4][7] - The influence of the 10-year Treasury note yields, projected to remain around 4.2%, is expected to have a stronger effect on mortgage rates than the federal funds rate [5][6] Historical Context - Mortgage rates have been above 6% for over three years, marking the longest period since 2005-2007, with historical data indicating that such rates were more common prior to that period [9]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - ARMOUR's Q3 GAAP net income available to common stockholders was $156.3 million, or $1.49 per common share, with net interest income at $38.5 million [3] - Distributed earnings available to common stockholders was $75.3 million, or $0.72 per common share, reflecting a total economic return of 7.75% for the quarter [3][4] - Quarter-end book value increased to $17.49 per common share, up 3.5% from June 30 and 2.8% from August 8 [3] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - ARMOUR raised approximately $99.5 million by issuing about 6 million shares through an at-the-market offering program and completed the sale of 18.5 million shares for approximately $298.6 million [4] - The company repurchased 700,000 shares through its common stock repurchase program [4] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Federal Reserve resumed its easing cycle with a 25 basis point cut in September, leading to a decline in Treasury yields and a tightening of agency MBS spreads by roughly 20 basis points [7][8] - MBS spreads are now near the tightest levels of the year, with expectations of further easing likely to redirect liquidity into agency MBS [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - ARMOUR's strategy focuses on growing and deploying capital thoughtfully during spread dislocations while maintaining robust liquidity and dynamically adjusting hedges for disciplined risk management [15][16] - The company aims to pay an attractive and stable dividend over the medium term, with a current monthly dividend of $0.24 per share [4][5] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the macroeconomic environment is shifting, with a softer U.S. labor market and expectations of further Fed rate cuts, which could create a constructive environment for agency MBS [6][7] - The company anticipates that structural demand for agency mortgage-backed securities will continue to strengthen, supported by regulatory clarity and a resumed easing cycle [14] Other Important Information - ARMOUR's portfolio is entirely invested in agency mortgage-backed securities, agency commercial MBS, and U.S. Treasuries, with a net duration of 0.2 years and applied leverage of 8.1 times [10] - The average gross haircuts stand near 2.75%, with repo market liquidity remaining healthy [13] Q&A Session Summary Question: Current returns on incremental investments and hedge choices - Management expects hedged ROEs in the 16% to 18% range, slightly lower than previous quarters due to tight mortgage spreads [18][19] Question: Outlook for swap spreads and mortgage spreads on an OIS basis - Swap spreads are expected to normalize, providing a tailwind for the portfolio, with 87% of notional allocated to SOFR and OIS swaps [20][21] Question: GSE deregulation and its impact on borrower rates - Management indicated that various levers could be pulled to reduce borrower rates, but balancing GSE attractiveness as an investment is also a priority [23][24] Question: Interest rate volatility and potential hedging strategies - Management discussed using swaptions and asset selection to manage volatility, noting that about 40% of the portfolio consists of low optionality assets [27][29] Question: Economic net interest margin outlook - Future trends depend on the portfolio and Fed rate cuts, with management confident in the constructed portfolio [33][34] Question: MBS spreads and Fed rate cuts - Management acknowledged that a pause in the easing cycle could introduce volatility, but actual cuts could unlock bank demand for MBS [38][39]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - ARMOUR's Q3 GAAP net income available to common stockholders was $156.3 million or $1.49 per common share, with net interest income at $38.5 million and distributable earnings at $75.3 million or $0.72 per common share [4] - Total economic return for the quarter was 7.75%, with quarter-end book value at $17.49 per common share, reflecting a 3.5% increase from June 30 and a 2.8% increase from August 8 [4][5] - The most recent estimate of book value as of October 21 was $17.5 per common share, including the accrual of the October common dividend of $0.24 per share [5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - ARMOUR raised approximately $99.5 million by issuing about 6 million shares of common stock through an after-market offering program during Q3 [5] - The company paid monthly common stock dividends of $0.24 per share for a total of $0.72 for the quarter [5][6] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Federal Reserve resumed its easing cycle with a 25 basis point cut in September, leading to a constructive environment for agency MBS as financing conditions improved [8] - Treasury yields declined, and agency MBS spreads tightened by roughly 20 basis points, with volatility falling to its lowest level since 2022 [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - ARMOUR's strategy focuses on growing and deploying capital thoughtfully during spread dislocations while maintaining robust liquidity and dynamically adjusting hedges for disciplined risk management [20] - The company is positioned to benefit from potential GSE reforms, which could transform the current headwinds into tailwinds for MBS investors [11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that macro and political visibility has become more clouded due to the federal government shutdown, which delayed key data releases and introduced uncertainty to growth forecasts [9] - Despite the uncertainty, the market expects an easing bias through year-end, likely redirecting liquidity into agency MBS [10] Other Important Information - ARMOUR's portfolio is entirely invested in Agency CMBS and U.S. Treasuries, with a net duration of 0.2 years and implied leverage of 8.1x [12] - The aggregate portfolio prepayment rates rose to 9.6 CPR in October, a 19% increase from the Q3 average of 8.1 CPR, with expectations of a similar uptick in November [14] Q&A Session Summary Question: Current returns on incremental investments and hedge choices - Management indicated expected ROEs in the 16% to 18% range, slightly lower than previous quarters due to tight mortgage spreads [23][24] Question: Outlook for swap spreads and mortgage spreads on an OAS basis - Management expects swap spreads to continue normalizing, which would be a tailwind for the portfolio [26] Question: Thoughts on GSE deregulation and its implementation - Management acknowledged various levers the administration could pull to reduce borrower rates, indicating a balance between making GSEs attractive and lowering mortgage rates [31] Question: Hedge ratio changes and confidence in easing activity - Management explained that the hedge ratio is adjusted based on duration targets across the curve, reflecting a balanced view with a bias towards Fed easing [33][35] Question: Impact of interest rate volatility on MBS - Management noted that while volatility has decreased, they expect it to continue declining in the medium term, which could affect the valuation of options [41][43]

Fannie Mae Chief Executive Priscilla Almodovar has stepped down as the Trump administration considers selling shares of the mortgage giant https://t.co/SuXsRNXpcr ...

Fannie Mae Chief Executive Priscilla Almodovar has stepped down as the Trump administration considers selling shares of the mortgage giant. ...

Accessibility StatementSkip Navigation WASHINGTON, Oct. 22, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Fannie Mae (OTCQB: FNMA) today announced new leadership roles for three key existing leaders at Fannie Mae. "We are pleased to announce new leadership roles for three key senior executives, including Peter Akwaboah, Fannie Mae's current Chief Operating Officer, who has been appointed to the additional role of Acting CEO of Fannie Mae," said William J. Pulte, Fannie Mae Chairman of the Board. "Peter's deep operating backgroun ...