US MBA mortgage applications fell -12.7% in the week ended September 26, with the purchase mortgage sub-index down -1.0% and the refinancing sub-index down -20.6%. The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage rose +12 bp to 6.46% from 6.34% in the prior week.Stocks initially moved lower on Wednesday due to the US government shutdown, following lawmakers' failure to pass a continuing resolution to fund the government. The dollar index fell to a one-week low on Wednesday, and gold prices climbed to a record high a ...

Market Trends - Intel's stock rise due to Nvidia investment lifts chipmakers [1] - AMD's stock sinks [1]

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.41%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.17%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +0.49%.  September E-mini S&P futures (ESU25) are up +0.43%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU25) are up +0.54%. Stock indexes are moving higher today, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 posting new all-time highs.  Falling bond yields are supportive for stocks ahead of the Tue/Wed FOMC meeting, when the Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 bp ...

Core Viewpoint - The competition in artificial intelligence is intensifying globally, with companies outside the U.S. starting to catch up, particularly in chipmaking and AI engines, which may deter some investors for unfounded reasons [1] Group 1: Alibaba's Position and Market Reaction - Alibaba Group's stock has risen by 11% over the past month, contrasting with NVIDIA's decline of nearly 3% following Alibaba's announcement of developing its own AI chip [7][8] - The market's positive reaction to Alibaba's new chip development indicates a bullish outlook for the company, suggesting a compelling reason for investors to consider buying [8] - Analysts forecast a potential upside of 18.33% for Alibaba's stock, with a 12-month price target of $162.38, based on 14 analyst ratings [10][11] Group 2: Strategic Developments and Future Outlook - Alibaba's move to develop its own AI chip comes in response to NVIDIA's decision to halt sales of H20 chips to China, indicating a strategic pivot to fill the demand gap left by NVIDIA [6][8] - The company has established data centers across Asia, positioning itself to benefit from the region's growing middle class, which is expected to provide strong tailwinds for future growth [10] - Historical stock performance shows that Alibaba's shares reached an all-time high of over $310 three years ago, suggesting the potential for revisiting or surpassing previous highs [9] Group 3: Institutional Interest and Market Sentiment - Institutional buying activity has reached $7.3 billion over the past quarter, signaling confidence in Alibaba's future fundamentals [12] - Despite the current Moderate Buy rating among analysts, there is a perception that this rating is conservative, driven by market fears regarding Chinese stocks [11][13] - The overall sentiment suggests that Alibaba is well-positioned in the AI race, with significant upside potential as the market begins to recognize its developments [13]

Market Overview - Wall Street experienced broad losses, with major indices retreating as investors adopted a risk-off approach due to concerns over high valuations, seasonal challenges, and fiscal strains [1][2] - The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) surged nearly 20% to 19.2, marking its third consecutive advance, indicating increased market fear [1] Major Indices Performance - The Nasdaq 100 led the decline, falling 1.7%, while the S&P 500 decreased by 1.4% in its first session of September, historically the weakest month [2] - The Dow Jones lost over 500 points, or 1.1% [2] - The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) slipped 1.5% to $584.49, and the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) fell 1.1% to $451.04 [6] Sector Performance - Chipmakers were significantly impacted, with NVIDIA Corp. dropping 3.6%, Arm Holdings plc sinking 5%, and ASML Holding NV and Qualcomm Inc. each losing about 3% [2] - The Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP) outperformed, down only 0.3%, while the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLB) lagged, down 2% [6] Economic Indicators - The ISM Manufacturing PMI indicated a sixth consecutive month of contraction, suggesting that tariffs meant to protect domestic industries are increasing costs and delaying investments [3] - Safe-haven assets saw strong demand, with gold reaching record highs above $3,500 an ounce and silver surpassing $40 [3] Bond Market Activity - Long-dated yields rose across advanced economies, with 30-year U.S. Treasuries increasing five basis points to 4.97%, just below the 5% mark [4] Notable Stock Movements - Top gainers in the S&P 500 included Ulta Beauty Inc. (+6.45%), Biogen Inc. (+3.84%), and Ralph Lauren Corp (+3.36%) [5] - The worst performers included TransDigm Group Inc. (-7.50%), Constellation Brands Inc. (-6.97%), and Kraft Heinz Co. (-6.96%) [7]

Technology & Policy - Chinese government reiterated that it will not let TikTok's parent company sell its algorithm [1] - AI company Anthropic has partnered with startup Binti [1] Market Trends - Chipmakers experienced significant losses on Wall Street Wednesday [1]

Market Overview - U.S. stock futures declined on Wednesday following mixed trading on Tuesday, with major benchmark indices showing lower futures [1] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100's retreat was attributed to failed peace talks involving President Trump and European leaders [1] - The Dow Jones index ended slightly higher, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite saw declines of 0.59% and 1.46% respectively [6][7] Economic Indicators - Investors are focused on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming speech for signals on interest rates, with an 82.9% likelihood of a rate cut projected for the September 17 decision [2] - The 10-year Treasury bond yielded 4.31%, while the two-year bond was at 3.76% [2] - U.S. housing starts increased by 5.2% to an annualized rate of 1.428 million in July, while building permits declined by 2.8% to an annualized rate of 1.354 million [5] Company Performance - Intel Corp. saw a 7% rally, extending its monthly gains to 27% after a $2 billion investment from SoftBank Group [5] - Palo Alto Networks Inc. jumped over 3% after reporting strong quarterly results [5] - La-Z-Boy Inc. dropped 24.57% after reporting weaker-than-expected financial results for Q1 of fiscal 2026 [15] Sector Performance - Real estate, utilities, and consumer staples stocks recorded the biggest gains on Tuesday, while information technology and communication services sectors closed lower [4] - Small-cap and value stocks have shown a tight correlation with interest rate expectations, becoming increasingly reactive to the Fed's next move [10][11] Analyst Insights - Economist Jeremy Siegel emphasized that Powell's speech could significantly influence market direction, with two primary scenarios outlined [9][10] - A dovish tone from Powell could signal a 25-basis-point rate cut, potentially benefiting small-cap stocks [14] - Conversely, a hawkish signal could lead to negative reactions in risk markets [14]

Market Dynamics & Geopolitics - The chip industry is navigating the impact of political factors, particularly concerning access to the Chinese market, which is one of the largest chip markets in the world [3][4][5] - Companies are trying to understand the "rules of the game" to maintain access to the Chinese market, potentially involving compromises or deals [2][5] - Restrictions on chip exports to China could impact the long-term growth and valuations of companies like AMD and NVIDIA [11][12] - China's potential shift towards domestic chip production could further impact the global chip market [11] Company Strategy & Risk Management - Companies are adopting a "read and react" approach to policy changes, rather than relying on forecasting [7] - Access issues to the Chinese market are expected to increase costs and complexity for chipmakers [13] - The fundamental narrative for investing in companies like AMD and NVIDIA remains strong despite these challenges [13] Intel's Situation - There are questions surrounding Intel's leadership and its ability to develop the right types of chips [14] - Potential leadership changes at Intel could be influenced by political factors [15][16] - Intel faces significant challenges in terms of corporate structure and innovation [17]