Core Insights - The total dividend of 12 large Indian banks is projected to decline by approximately 4.2% to $5.98 billion in the current fiscal year from $6.24 billion last year, which had seen a 15.3% increase over FY24 [1][8] - All major Indian banks are expected to either cut their dividend per share or maintain it at the same level as the previous fiscal year [1][8] Dividend Projections - HDFC Bank is expected to reduce its dividend to ₹8.25 per share from ₹11 per share in the previous year [2][8] - Bank of Baroda may lower its dividend to ₹7.9 per share from ₹8.35 per share [8] - State Bank of India (SBI) is projected to maintain its dividend at ₹16 per share, nearly unchanged from ₹15.90 per share last fiscal [4][8] - ICICI Bank could be the only large bank to increase its dividend to ₹12 per share from ₹11 a year ago [8] Economic Factors - The Reserve Bank of India's 100 basis point repo rate cut in 2025 has compressed bank margins, as loan rates have decreased while competition for deposit funds has increased funding costs [6][8] - Weaker credit growth, now at 10% year on year compared to 13.6% last year, is attributed to subdued demand and a cautious economic environment [7][8] - Trade uncertainties, particularly the US-imposed 50% tariff on Indian goods, have negatively impacted expectations [7][8]

Core Insights - Public sector banks (PSBs) have increased their share of new home loans by value to 43% in FY25, up from 34% in FY22, while private banks' share has decreased to 29.8% from 42.6% [1][9] - The decline in private banks' market share is attributed to "irrational pricing" by competitors, leading to a slowdown in their growth [1][9] - ICICI Bank has adjusted its home loan pricing, reducing rates by over 105 basis points to 7.7%, aiming to regain market share [2][9] - HDFC Bank has also cut its home loan rate by 80 basis points to 7.9%, focusing on attracting the right customers [9] - Kotak Mahindra Bank reported strong growth in its home loan book after lowering rates by 66 basis points, although it recently raised rates by 10 basis points to 7.99% [5][9] - The Reserve Bank of India's repo rate cut by 100 basis points to 5.5% has contributed to the competitive landscape in the home loan market [5][9] - State Bank of India (SBI) has shown over 15% year-on-year growth in its mortgage book, now valued at Rs 8 lakh crore, despite raising its home loan rates [7][9] - Executives from private banks emphasize that pursuing growth at the expense of profitability is not sustainable [7][9] - Mortgage rates in major cities are currently advertised between 7.2% and 7.3%, levels not seen in recent years [8][9]

Market Sentiment - Renewed optimism around ongoing trade negotiations between India and the U.S. has lifted market sentiment, with expectations of stronger H2 FY26 earnings driven by GST rationalization and monetary easing benefits [1][14] - The IT index has outperformed due to hopes of a potential Fed rate cut and a revival in technology spending, with investors focused on the progress of India-U.S. trade talks for constructive resolutions to tariff-related issues [2][14] U.S. Market Performance - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached intraday record highs following cooler-than-expected inflation data, which kept the U.S. central bank on track to cut borrowing costs this year [6][14] - U.S. producer prices unexpectedly fell in August, leading traders to increase bets on interest-rate cuts, with a 90% probability for a 25-basis-point reduction at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting [7][14] Company Highlights - Oracle's stock surged 41% to a record high, marking its largest one-day percentage gain since 1992, after announcing expectations for booked revenue at its Oracle Cloud Infrastructure business to exceed half a trillion dollars [7][14] - Waaree Energies, HDFC Bank, and Kotak Mahindra Bank were among the most active stocks in terms of turnover on the BSE, indicating high trading activity [9][15] Technical Analysis - The Nifty index gained over 100 points, closing at 24,979, supported by a bullish crossover in the RSI above 50, indicating positive momentum [8][15] - Sustaining above the levels of 24,820–24,750 may lead the index towards 25,160 and higher levels, while support remains at the same lower range [8][15] Stock Activity - Over 118 stocks reached their 52-week highs, including Muthoot Finance, Bosch, and Maruti Suzuki, while 53 stocks hit their 52-week lows [12][15] - Stocks showing strong buying interest included Oracle Financial Services Software, Welspun India, and Vardhman Textiles, while significant selling pressure was observed in stocks like NTPC and Tata Motors [11][13][15]

State Bank of India, the country’s largest lender, expects demand for corporate credit to revive going forward, if the current situation of hardening of bond yields continues. The banking industry has been witnessing muted corporate credit growth as corporates have been tapping alternative funding sources, including bond markets. Corporate reliance on bank credit continued to decline in the first quarter of this fiscal, when issuances in corporate bonds crossed ₹3 lakh crore, the highest in the last few yea ...

Investors focus on Reliance Industries, HDFC Bank, and ICICI Bank as positive earnings surprises on the weekend could give large-cap stocks a boost. Read for free with your email on what could move markets today https://t.co/aC3Y2udBJw ...

Core Insights - Seeking Alpha has welcomed Westgrove Research as a new contributing analyst, providing a platform for investment ideas and analysis [1]. Group 1 - The article emphasizes the opportunity for individuals to share their investment ideas and get published, potentially earning money and gaining access to exclusive features [1].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies. Core Insights - Emerging Market (EM) equity funds experienced outflows of US$1.2 billion in the week ending April 30, 2025, with China leading the outflows at US$2.8 billion, partially offset by inflows from India (US$0.7 billion), Brazil (US$0.5 billion), Korea (US$0.4 billion), and Taiwan (US$0.4 billion) [2][3] - GEM long-only managers increased their overweights in Brazil and Korea while reducing their underweight in China, funded by adding to India underweight and cutting South Africa overweight [3][4] - Japanese equities saw foreign inflows of US$3.7 billion in the week ending April 25, 2025, although year-to-date flows remain net sold [5] Market Dynamics - In March 2025, GEM investors trimmed underweights in Consumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail and Telecommunication Services, funded by cutting overweights in Semiconductors and Media & Entertainment [4] - The underweight in Japan among long-only investors narrowed to 27 basis points as of the end of March 2025, down from 39 basis points at the end of December 2024 [5] - Active long-only managers added to overweight positions in Consumer Durables & Apparels and trimmed underweight in Automobiles & Components, funded by adding to underweight in Capital Goods [5] Fund Positioning - As of March 31, 2025, the relative market allocation of EM fund managers shows a significant underweight in China, which has narrowed, while both portfolio and index weights have risen [11] - The report highlights that the active fund positions in EM equities by market show Brazil with a portfolio weight of 7.8%, India at 19.5%, and Korea at 9.0% [21] - Sector positioning indicates that Financials account for 24.1% of the portfolio, followed by Information Technology at 21.5% and Consumer Discretionary at 14.5% [23][27]

Core Viewpoint - The Indian SENSEX30 index has broken out of its trading range, indicating a potential upward trend supported by macroeconomic factors, strong corporate earnings, and foreign investment confidence [1][3]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Factors - The Reserve Bank of India has cut the repo rate by 25 basis points to 6%, marking its second rate cut of the year and shifting to a more accommodative monetary policy stance [3]. - The central bank's governor indicated that future monetary policy will either maintain the current stance or involve further rate cuts [3]. Group 2: Corporate Earnings - Several Indian banks reported strong earnings for Q4 2024, with Yes Bank's net profit increasing by 59% year-on-year and HDFC Bank's net profit rising by 6.9% [3]. - Bank stocks are leading the market rally, reflecting the positive corporate performance [3]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The Emerging Asia ETF (520580) is highly correlated with the Indian market, making it a suitable vehicle for capturing investment opportunities in India [4][7]. - The ETF's net asset value (NAV) is directly influenced by the performance of the Indian stock market, allowing for real-time investment strategies based on market movements [7]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - If the Indian market experiences a significant rise with a low premium on the ETF (e.g., premium < 2%), it is advisable to buy the ETF and hold until the premium increases for selling [8]. - In cases of market overselling, characterized by KDJ oversold conditions and support levels being reached, the ETF can be used to capture rebound opportunities [9]. Group 5: Financing Options - The Emerging Asia ETF has been included as a margin trading product, indicating its quality and meeting high market requirements in terms of asset size, holder count, and liquidity [11]. - This inclusion allows for diverse investment strategies, enabling investors to leverage gains or short-sell for profits [11].

Core Viewpoint - Investors in the Banks - Foreign sector may consider Barclays (BCS) or HDFC Bank (HDB) as potential undervalued stocks [1] Group 1: Zacks Rank and Earnings Outlook - Barclays has a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy), indicating a positive earnings outlook, while HDFC Bank has a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [3] - The Zacks Rank emphasizes stocks with positive revisions to earnings estimates, suggesting that BCS has an improving earnings outlook [3][7] Group 2: Valuation Metrics - BCS has a forward P/E ratio of 7.76, significantly lower than HDB's forward P/E of 19.73 [5] - BCS's PEG ratio is 0.40, while HDB's PEG ratio is 2.13, indicating BCS may be undervalued relative to its expected earnings growth [5] - BCS has a P/B ratio of 0.61 compared to HDB's P/B of 2.47, further supporting BCS's valuation as more attractive [6] - These metrics contribute to BCS's Value grade of B and HDB's Value grade of D [6]