Summary of China Property Weekly Wrap Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Chinese property sector**, highlighting recent market activities and policy changes affecting the industry. Key Highlights 1. **Central Level Policies**: - Emphasis on stabilizing market expectations in the property sector due to housing's role as a financial asset and household wealth repository [1] - Policy easing is deemed necessary to align with market expectations and prevent speculation cycles [1] - Recent tax cuts include a reduction in VAT on properties held for less than two years from 5% to 3%, marking the first reduction since 2016 [1] 2. **Market Activity**: - Transaction volumes in the primary market decreased by **18% week-over-week (wow)** and **33% year-over-year (yoy)**, while secondary market transactions fell by **29% wow** and **27% yoy** [2] - Overall market activities softened, with secondary visitation down **9% wow** and new listing supply down **5% wow** [2] - Market sentiment remained stable, with price cuts holding at a ratio of approximately **15 times** those with price increases [2] 3. **Key Data Points**: - New home sales volume averaged **-18% wow** and **-33% yoy**; new home search activities increased by **1.5% wow** [5] - Secondary transactions averaged **-29% wow** and **-27% yoy** [5] - Inventory balance increased by **0.1% wow**, with inventory months at **28.7**, compared to an average of **28.0** in December 2025 [13] 4. **Valuation Insights**: - Stronger state-owned enterprise (SOE) developers saw share prices increase by **6% wow**, with notable performers like Jinmao (+9% wow) and Greentown (+8% wow) [25] - Offshore coverage developers traded at an average **33% discount** to end-2026 estimated net asset value (NAV) [25] - Onshore coverage developers traded at an average **13% discount** to end-2026 estimated NAV [25] 5. **Completions and New Starts**: - Completions are expected to show a **mid-single-digit percentage (MSD)** improvement in December 2025, contrasting with a **-25% to -18% yoy** decline in previous months [18] - New starts are anticipated to decline steeply, reflecting land sales trends and cement shipment ratios [18] Additional Insights - The report indicates a potential decline in home appliance sales based on secondary sales trends in approximately **20 cities** [18] - The overall market remains under pressure, with significant year-over-year declines in both new and existing home sales expected to continue into the next quarter [18] This summary encapsulates the critical aspects of the current state of the Chinese property market, including policy impacts, market activity, and valuation trends, providing a comprehensive overview for investors and stakeholders in the sector.

Vi e w p o i n t | 05 Jan 2026 10:38:45 ET │ 13 pages China Property Qiushi Journal Commentary on the Sector: Positive but Not Overread CITI'S TAKE Commentary from Qiushi Journal (official media under the CPC Central Committee) (2-Jan-2026) mentioned: [1] property exhibits notable characteristics of financial assets with wide-ranging interconnections, thus enhancing expectation mgmt is critical; [2] property is a pillar industry ('24: 13% of GDP incl. construction; 70m employment) & major source of resident ...

Summary of Conference Call on China Property Industry Industry Overview - The report focuses on the China property industry, specifically analyzing the land acquisitions and sales outlook for 2025 and 2026 [1][10]. Key Findings on Land Acquisitions - **Land Purchase Growth**: The value of land purchases by listed companies increased by 15% year-over-year (yoy) to RMB 478 billion, contrasting with a 7% decline in 300 cities [2][16]. - **Acquisition Concentration**: Only 13 listed companies participated in land purchases in 2025, accounting for 43% of the total, with the top five companies responsible for 71% of the acquisitions [4][24]. - **Geographic Focus**: There was a slight increase in spending in Tier-2 cities, which accounted for 42% of total land purchases in 2025, up from 40% in 2024 [3][32]. - **Top Buyers**: The leading companies in land acquisition included COLI, Poly China, and CR Land, with significant yoy growth from COGO (+96%), Jinmao (+78%), and CMSK (+56%) [4][26]. Sales Outlook - **Sales Projections**: Estimated sales for 2026 are expected to decline by 16% yoy, following a 25% decline in 2025. State-owned enterprises (SOEs) are projected to have a smaller decline of 6%, while non-SOEs may see a 17% drop [6][19]. - **Luxury Market Resilience**: High-end properties in core cities are expected to perform better, with companies like Jinmao and Greentown projected to achieve slight sales growth [6][19]. - **Market Dynamics**: The majority of land acquisitions were made by SOEs, which accounted for 75% of land purchases in 2025, indicating a trend towards consolidation in the market [6][19]. Financial Metrics - **Attributable Sales Ratio**: Land purchases represented 33% of attributable sales, marking a new high since 2021, indicating increased investment appetite among leading companies [2][20]. - **Cost Trends**: The average land acquisition cost increased by 23% yoy, reflecting a premium for prime land in Tier-1 and Tier-2 cities [3][20]. Additional Insights - **Market Conditions**: The land market was more active in the first half of 2025, driven by a recovery in sales and a decrease in inventory levels in top cities. However, activity slowed in the second half due to declining sales and secondary price drops [19][36]. - **Strategic Focus**: Companies are increasingly focusing on acquiring high-quality land rather than engaging in indiscriminate purchases, with a notable shift towards securing resources in economically robust Tier-2 cities [15][32]. Conclusion - The China property market is experiencing a complex landscape characterized by selective land acquisitions, a focus on high-quality assets, and a challenging sales environment. The performance of leading companies will be critical in navigating these dynamics as they prepare for 2026.

Summary of China Property Weekly Wrap Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Chinese property market**, specifically analyzing the performance of primary and secondary real estate transactions in the context of fiscal year 2025 (FY25) and the outlook for 2026. Key Highlights 1. **Policy Initiatives**: - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development (MOHURD) has outlined priorities for 2026 aimed at stabilizing the property market, including: - City-specific measures to control new supply and reduce inventory through urban renewal and buybacks of unsold homes for affordable housing [1] - Promotion of high-quality housing initiatives [1] - Enhancement of the "white-list" financing mechanism to support developers' financing needs [1] - Empowerment of local governments to adjust housing policies to support demand [1] - Advancement of new development models to mitigate delivery risks [1] 2. **Local Policy Adjustments**: - Beijing has eased local home purchase restrictions, allowing families with multiple children to buy an additional home within the 5th Ring Road [2] - Potential adjustments in home-purchase rules in other Tier-1 cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen are anticipated [2] 3. **Market Activity**: - Transactions in the primary market improved by **29% week-over-week (wow)**, while the secondary market saw a **5% wow** increase, despite year-over-year (yoy) declines of **-16%** and **-1%** respectively [3][8] - The ratio of units with price cuts narrowed to **15.4 times** those with price increases in December, down from approximately **18 times** in the previous months [3] 4. **Sales and Inventory Data**: - New home sales volume was **-37% yoy**, with search activities down **1.1% wow** [4] - Inventory levels increased by **0.1% wow** but decreased by **3.5%** from the end of 2024, with inventory months at **28.4** [20] 5. **Valuation Insights**: - Stronger state-owned enterprise (SOE) developers experienced a **-1% wow** decline in share prices, while privately-owned enterprises (POE) saw a **-2% wow** drop [32] - Offshore developers are trading at an average **37% discount** to end-2026 estimated net asset value (NAV) [32] 6. **Sales Forecasts**: - Property sales in approximately **75 cities** suggest that top-100 developers' presales are likely to decline **41% yoy** in December, compared to **-36%** in November [8] - Completions are expected to show a **mid-single-digit percentage improvement** yoy in December, with a **-10% yoy** decline projected for FY25 [24] 7. **Market Sentiment**: - Secondary market sentiment remains steady, with subscription-based sales and visitations flattening [3] - Home appliance sales are likely to record a yoy decline in December based on trends in **20 cities** [8] Additional Insights - The report indicates a potential steepened decline in new starts in December, based on land sales trends and cement shipment ratios [8] - The overall market sentiment reflects cautious optimism due to policy adjustments and localized easing measures, which may influence investor focus in the near term [2][3] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and data points from the China Property Weekly Wrap, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and outlook of the Chinese property market.

Summary of China Property Market Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **China Property** market, highlighting significant declines in various metrics related to real estate investment and sales. Key Points Real Estate Investment (REI) Trends - **November REI** experienced a record drop of **30.3% YoY**, marking the sharpest decline on record, with a total of **RMB 0.5 trillion**, the lowest monthly figure since April 2012 [1][11] - **Completion rates** fell by **26% YoY** in November, slightly improved from **28%** in October [1] - **Starts** decreased by **28% YoY**, consistent with a **29%** decline in October [1] - **Residential sales** dropped by **28% YoY**, the largest single-month decline since May 2024 [1] - The **70-cities price index** for new homes decreased by **2.8% YoY** in November, while secondary homes saw a **5.7% YoY** decline [1] Market Dynamics - **Secondary market sales** in 18 key cities fell by **22% YoY** in November, with average weekly volume showing a **13% MoM** increase, driven by price cuts [2] - Listings in 39 cities remained stable, but cities like Shenzhen and Xi'an saw increased listings, putting pressure on prices [2] - A survey indicated only **9%** of depositors expect housing prices to rise in 2026, a historical low [2] Future Projections - The outlook for 2026 suggests a **structural decline** in the market unless liquidity improves, with expectations of: - **REI** down **13% YoY** - National sales down **11% YoY**, with residential sales projected at **RMB 6.8 trillion** [3] - New home average selling prices (ASP) expected to fall by **3% YoY** [3] - Starts anticipated to drop to levels last seen in 2003, with a **15% YoY** decline [3] Policy and Regulatory Environment - The **Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC)** indicated a more proactive policy tone, with potential demand-side easing measures expected in Q4 2025 [4] - Urban renewals and REIT approvals are likely to accelerate, but significant changes in home price expectations are not anticipated due to ample supply [4] - Monitoring for targeted monetary easing or pro-leverage initiatives is advised, though the likelihood remains low [4] Market Sentiment and Investment Recommendations - The sector's share prices corrected in early December amid debates over weak sales and expectations of policy-driven rebounds, particularly following Vanke's debt extension [5] - Anticipated earnings downgrades in December and January for well-known names in the sector [5] - Luxury mall retail sales are expected to maintain a positive trend in Q4 after outperforming in Q3 [5] - Recommended stocks include **Jinmao, C&D, and CRL** as top picks [5] Additional Insights - The **macro environment** shows mixed signals, with November exports beating expectations at **5.9% YoY**, while retail sales decelerated to **1.3% YoY** despite a higher CPI of **0.7%** [1] - Fixed Asset Investment (FAI) remains weak, down **12%** YoY, with a cumulative decline of **2.6%** for the first eleven months [1] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the current state and future outlook of the China property market, emphasizing the significant challenges and potential policy responses.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Chinese real estate market**, highlighting recent trends in property sales and market activities during week 49 of 2025. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Policy Support**: The State Council continues to support urban renewal initiatives, aiming to stabilize the property market and promote high-quality housing construction and development [1][2] 2. **Market Activity Decline**: Overall market activities have slowed, with primary sales volume down **16% week-over-week (wow)** and secondary sales down **5% wow**. Subscription-based secondary sales also fell by **5% wow** [2][5] 3. **Price Adjustments**: The pressure on secondary prices has eased slightly, with listings that experienced price cuts decreasing by **18% wow**, resulting in a ratio of listings with price cuts to those with price increases at **15.5X** compared to **17.3X** in November [2][5] 4. **Sales Performance**: New home sales volume averaged **-16% wow** and **-44% year-over-year (yoy)**, with tier-3 cities and the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) outperforming other tiers. Secondary transactions were down **5% wow** and **-49% yoy** [5][27] 5. **Year-to-Date (YTD) Performance**: Primary Gross Floor Area (GFA) sold was down **14% yoy**, with tier-3 cities and Central & Western regions outperforming. Secondary GFA sold was up **2% yoy** [5][23] 6. **Inventory Levels**: Inventory increased by **0.1% wow** but decreased by **3.6% from the end of 2024**, with inventory months at **27.5** compared to an average of **26.7** in November [37][39] 7. **Valuation Trends**: Offshore developers saw an average share price decline of **2% wow**, while onshore developers averaged **-3% wow**. Offshore coverage trades at a **41% discount** to end-2025 estimated net asset value (NAV) [49][50] Additional Important Insights 1. **Completion Rates**: The GSPC tracker indicates a high single-digit percentage decline in completions for November 2025, with expectations of a **30%-40% yoy decline** in new starts [15][42] 2. **Home Appliance Sales**: Anticipated to decline yoy in November 2025 based on secondary sales trends in approximately 20 cities [15] 3. **Market Sentiment**: The average Centraline Salesman Index (CSI) was down **2.7 percentage points (pp) wow** and **8.2 pp yoy**, indicating a negative sentiment among agents regarding property prices [31][33] 4. **Seller Expectations**: The average Centraline Seller Asking Index (CAI) increased by **0.3 pp wow** but decreased by **10.9 pp yoy**, reflecting mixed expectations among sellers [34][36] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, providing insights into the current state of the Chinese real estate market, including sales performance, inventory levels, and market sentiment.

26 November 2025 | 11:01AM CST Equity Research China Property: Hangzhou trip takeaway: reinforced polarization On Nov 25th, we toured Hangzhou to pulse-check on the local property market, visiting a local leading developer (Binjiang Group, 002244.SZ, Not Covered, with c.30% Hangzhou market share per management) and one of the company's high-profile residential projects (Jin Shang Wan Xiang Fu). In general, we note a reinforced polarization between the uninspiring broader market and the standalone out-perfor ...

Summary of China Property Market Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **China Property** market, highlighting significant declines in investment, completion rates, and home prices as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) for October 2025. Key Points and Arguments Investment and Sales Trends - **Real Estate Investment (REI)** dropped by **22.5% year-over-year** in October, worsening from a **21.6% decline** in September, marking the sharpest decline since November 2022 [1] - **Completion rates** fell by **28% year-over-year**, a significant drop from a **1.5% increase** in September [1] - **New construction starts** decreased by **29% year-over-year**, compared to a **14% decline** in September [1] - **Residential sales** saw a **25% decline**, with the gross floor area (GFA) sold down **20%**, both representing the largest retreats since May 2024 [1] - The **70-cities price index** showed a widening decline, with new home prices down **0.5% month-over-month** and secondary home prices down **0.7% month-over-month** [1] Macro Economic Context - October exports experienced a **1.1% decline**, the first drop in eight months, while fixed asset investment (FAI) missed expectations with a **12% decline** [1] - Credit data remained soft, with new loans and total social financing (TSF) at **RMB 0.2 trillion** and **RMB 0.8 trillion**, respectively, below consensus estimates [1] - Retail sales showed stability with a **2.9% increase**, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) exceeded expectations [1] Local Government Initiatives - Local governments are promoting high-quality property development under the **15th Five-Year Plan**, with new rules linking completed home sales to new land sales [2] - For instance, Pingjiang County in Hunan requires completed home sales for new land acquisitions, with completed homes accounting for **62%** of local sales [2] - Fujian's Fuzhou is linking pre-sales approvals to property firms' credit profiles, and Guangzhou mandates **100% pre-fabrication** for new residential lands starting in 2026 [2] Market Dynamics - Secondary sales in **18 key cities** dropped by **29% year-over-year** in October, with average weekly volumes at **21,000 units**, the second-lowest year-to-date [3] - Listings in **39 cities** remained flat month-over-month, but Tier-1 cities saw a **1.5% increase** [3] - The flexibility in secondary price cuts may lead to continued price weakness and shift demand from new homes to the secondary market [3] Sector Outlook - The property sector is expected to experience range-bound trading, with limited new property policies anticipated apart from execution urgencies [4] - Property sales are likely to remain soft in **Q4 2025** due to high bases and limited support from easing measures in low-tier cities [4] - However, top-10 cities are showing mild growth, with **82%** of listed companies' land acquisitions occurring in these areas, and luxury home sales are outperforming with improved margins [4] - Preferred investment targets include companies with luxury and quality products, such as Jinmao, C&D, CRL, and COLI, which has shown strong sales in Tier-1 cities [4] Additional Insights - The **National Residential Inventory** reached **396 million sqm** by October 2025, indicating a significant amount of unsold inventory [24] - The **transaction amount** for overall real estate in October was **RMB 598 billion**, reflecting a **25.5% decline** year-over-year [9] - The **average weekly primary transaction volume** in October was down **35.4% year-over-year**, indicating a significant slowdown in market activity [27] Conclusion The China property market is facing substantial challenges with declining investment, sales, and prices. Local government initiatives aim to stimulate high-quality development, but the overall outlook remains cautious, particularly for the remainder of 2025. Investors are advised to focus on companies with strong fundamentals and luxury offerings amidst the ongoing market volatility.

Summary of China Property Weekly Wrap Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Chinese property market**, highlighting recent trends and policy changes affecting housing consumption and market performance. Key Highlights - **Policy Changes**: The proposal for the 15th Five-Year Plan suggests removing irrational restrictions on housing consumption. A MOHURD-affiliated outlet indicated that Tier-1 cities (Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen) could fully cancel home purchase restrictions. Proposed stimulus measures include: - Nationwide interoperability of housing provident funds - Lower VAT exemption period for secondary home sales - Pilot programs for personal income tax deductions on home renovation - Optimized criteria for defining first and second homes - New mechanisms for property purchase tax rebates - **Market Reaction**: Following these announcements, shares of covered developers rose by an average of **4%** on Monday, contrasting with a flat performance of the CSI 300/MSCI China index [1][1][1]. Market Performance - **Transaction Volumes**: - Primary transaction volume fell by **29%** week-over-week (wow) and **37%** year-over-year (yoy). - Secondary transactions moderated by **4%** wow and **23%** yoy. - Secondary home visitations and new listings declined by **5%** and **8%** wow, respectively [2][2][2]. - **Average Transaction Prices**: The average transaction price in 15 cities fell by **2%** wow and was **3%** below the October level [2][2][2]. Key Data Points - **New Home Sales**: - New home sales volume decreased by **29%** wow and **37%** yoy, with Tier-1 and Central & Western cities outperforming. - Secondary transactions were down **4%** wow and **23%** yoy, with agents expecting stronger price appreciation than homeowners [5][5][5]. - **Year-to-Date Performance**: - Primary Gross Floor Area (GFA) sold was down **10%** yoy, with Tier-1 and Central & Western cities outperforming. - Secondary GFA sold was up **6%** yoy [6][6][6]. Inventory and Completions - **Inventory Levels**: - Inventory balance decreased by **0.2%** wow and **3.7%** from the end of 2024, with inventory months at **26.5** [14][14][14]. - **Completions**: - GSPC tracker indicates flattish yoy completions for October 2025, with a projected **10%** yoy decline for FY25E [41][41][41]. Valuation Insights - **Developer Valuations**: - Offshore coverage developers saw an average share price increase of **4%** wow, while onshore developers averaged **3%** wow. - Offshore coverage trades at an average **38%** discount to end-2025E NAV, while onshore coverage trades at a **9%** discount [48][48][48]. Implications for Investors - The report suggests that the recent policy changes and market reactions could present both opportunities and risks for investors in the Chinese property market. The ongoing decline in transaction volumes and prices, coupled with potential policy support, creates a complex investment landscape [7][7][7].

Summary of Conference Call on China Property Market Industry Overview - The conference focused on the **China property market**, specifically in **Shenzhen** and **Guangzhou**. The analysis included insights from developers, financial institutions, and property managers, highlighting contrasting trends between high-end and broader market segments [1][6]. Key Insights Market Trends - **Luxury Segment Performance**: There is a strengthening in luxury retail sales and affluent asset under management (AUM) growth, with double-digit percentage increases, but this has not yet translated into improved sales for high-end residential projects in Shenzhen and Guangzhou [3][6]. - **New Home Prices**: Prices for new homes remain resilient, with a premium over secondary homes due to better quality offerings. However, the sell-through pace for new homes has slowed, raising concerns about the sustainability of this pricing premium [3][7]. - **Urban Renewal Challenges**: Funding is identified as a significant bottleneck for urban renewal development, which is crucial for demand. Despite policy announcements, funding sources remain a fundamental restraint [3][8]. Financial Health of Banks - Selected banks reported a **10 percentage point increase** in loan-to-value (LTV) ratios to approximately **40%-55%** for mortgage asset balances, indicating limited non-performing loan (NPL) risk. Stress tests suggest these banks could tolerate an additional **20% decline** in property prices in high-tier cities [5][6]. Technology and Efficiency - The adoption of AI and digital applications is becoming increasingly important in the property sector, focusing on operational efficiency and sustainable profitability. Examples include automated cleaning robots and enhanced customer profiling by banks [5][6]. Policy Environment - Experts expressed caution regarding the effectiveness of current easing measures, such as mortgage rate cuts and HPR relaxations, which have had limited impact on market confidence. The need for broader macroeconomic policies or aggressive property-specific stimulus measures is emphasized [10][19]. Additional Observations - **Market Conditions**: The overall market remains in a downturn, with secondary prices falling **20%-30%** and transaction volumes decreasing from **6,000 units** in June to **4,000 units** in October [10][19]. - **Urban Population**: Approximately **1/3** of Guangzhou's and **60%** of Shenzhen's urban populations reside in urban villages, highlighting the potential for urban renewal projects [8][19]. - **Luxury Mall Recovery**: High-end malls are experiencing a recovery driven by luxury retail sales, with significant contributions from high-net-worth customers. The occupancy rate of luxury malls remains high at **97%** [26][28]. Conclusion - The China property market is characterized by a divergence between high-end and broader market segments, with luxury retail showing resilience while the overall market faces challenges. The need for effective policy measures and funding solutions for urban renewal is critical for future recovery. The integration of technology in property management is also seen as a key driver for efficiency and profitability in the sector [1][6][10].