Core Insights - The U.S. Department of the Interior added phosphate and potash to the Critical Minerals List on November 6, 2025, highlighting their importance in food production and national security [1] Company Perspective - Bruce Bodine, President and CEO of The Mosaic Company, emphasized that phosphate and potash production is vital for food security, linking it directly to national security [1]

Financial Performance - For the three months ended September 30, 2025, net sales increased to $3,452.1 million, a 23% increase from $2,810.9 million in the prior year[119] - Gross margin for the same period rose by 33% to $552.3 million, driven by higher average selling prices across all segments[120] - Operating earnings for the three months ended September 30, 2025, were $339.8 million, a significant increase of 194% compared to $115.4 million in the prior year[119] - Net income attributable to Mosaic for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $1,060.2 million, compared to a net loss of $5.9 million in the same period a year ago[128] - A foreign currency transaction gain of $301.3 million positively impacted net income for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, compared to a loss of $(267.3) million in the prior year[128] Segment Performance - The Phosphate segment's operating earnings for the three months ended September 30, 2025, were $102 million, up from $8 million in the prior year, supported by higher selling prices and sales volumes[122] - The Potash segment reported operating earnings of $229 million for the three months ended September 30, 2025, compared to $109 million in the prior year, benefiting from improved global supply conditions[123] - Mosaic Fertilizantes segment's operating earnings increased to $96 million for the three months ended September 30, 2025, from $56 million in the prior year, despite a slight decline in sales volumes[125] - The Phosphate segment's net sales increased to $1.3 billion for the three months ended September 30, 2025, up from $1.0 billion in the same period of 2024, driven by higher average finished goods sales prices contributing approximately $210 million[135] - The Potash segment's net sales reached $694.8 million for the three months ended September 30, 2025, a 32% increase from $525.7 million in the same period of 2024[149] - The Mosaic Fertilizantes segment's net sales increased to $1.6 billion for the three months ended September 30, 2025, from $1.4 billion during the same period of the prior year, driven by higher finished product sales prices[164] Pricing and Costs - Average finished product selling price rose 23% to $712 per tonne for the three months ended September 30, 2025, compared to $579 per tonne in the prior year[136] - The average finished product selling price for the Potash segment was $278 per tonne for the three months ended September 30, 2025, compared to $233 per tonne for the same period last year[151] - The average finished product selling price for the Mosaic Fertilizantes segment was $518 per tonne for the three months ended September 30, 2025, compared to $447 per tonne for the same period a year ago[165] - The average consumed price for ammonia decreased 6% to $455 per tonne for the three months ended September 30, 2025, while the average consumed sulfur price increased 116% to $272 per long ton[139] - The average consumed cost of purchased and produced phosphate rock decreased to $80 per tonne for the three months ended September 30, 2025, down from $87 per tonne in the prior year[140] Operational Metrics - The Phosphate segment's production of crop nutrient dry concentrates and animal feed ingredients increased 3% for the three months ended September 30, 2025, resulting in an operating rate of 68%[141] - The production of crop nutrient dry concentrates and animal feed ingredients for the Mosaic Fertilizantes segment increased by 6% for the three months ended September 30, 2025, compared to the prior year period[169] Expenses and Financial Position - Selling, general and administrative expenses for the nine months increased by $31.9 million, primarily due to higher incentive compensation and employee benefit costs of approximately $27 million[181] - Other operating expenses decreased to $221.3 million from $305.0 million in the prior year, mainly due to timing of annual asset retirement obligation adjustments[183] - Net interest expense for the nine months increased to $139.3 million from $136.1 million, attributed to higher short-term debt levels[185] - Cash and cash equivalents as of September 30, 2025, were $153.3 million, with short-term debt of $1.2 billion and long-term debt of approximately $3.4 billion[195] - Net cash provided by operating activities was $880.9 million, down 18% from $1,079.9 million in the prior year[198] Capital and Financing Activities - Capital expenditures for the nine months were $1,009.8 million, compared to $957.7 million in the prior year[201] - Net cash used in financing activities for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $9.4 million, a significant decrease from $168.6 million for the same period in the prior year[202] - Dividends paid during the nine months ended September 30, 2025, totaled $210.5 million, with long-term debt payments net of borrowings amounting to $49.8 million[202] Risk Management - The company is exposed to fluctuations in the relative value of currencies, interest rates, and commodity prices, and uses derivatives to mitigate these risks[212] - The company has significant foreign currency exposures primarily to the Canadian dollar and Brazilian real, utilizing financial instruments to hedge these risks[213] - The company anticipates potential changes in trade policies and economic conditions that could impact its operations and financial performance[208] - The company is subject to financial assurance requirements in various jurisdictions, including Florida and Louisiana, which may affect its operational flexibility[204]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net income for Q3 2025 increased to $411 million compared to $122 million in the prior year [6] - Adjusted EBITDA rose to $806 million from $448 million year over year, driven by higher prices across all segments [6] - Cash flow from operations was $229 million for Q3, impacted by over $400 million increase in working capital [21][22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. phosphate production improved sequentially, with trailing three-month production volumes reaching approximately 1.8 million tons [9][31] - Mosaic Fertilizantes showed excellent performance with adjusted EBITDA increasing year over year despite a challenging credit environment [5][10] - Potash production cash cost per ton decreased from $75 in Q2 to $71 in Q3, with expectations for Q4 unit costs to remain similar [19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Phosphate markets remain tight due to global supply constraints, with prices elevated despite recent moderation [6][13] - Potash markets are balanced, with strong demand driven by affordability, particularly in China and Southeast Asia [8][14] - Brazilian fertilizer demand is expected to grow as growers replenish soils and expand acreage [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on achieving reliable production, leveraging market access, and executing a capital reallocation strategy to create shareholder value [4][5] - Recent investments in the Taquari Potash Mine and Patos de Minas asset reflect a commitment to redeploy capital toward higher return opportunities [5][24] - The company anticipates a strong finish to 2025 and a promising outlook for 2026, driven by strong agricultural fundamentals [11][16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management highlighted the resilience of the business in a dynamic market and geopolitical environment, with a focus on consistent performance [4] - There are concerns about fertilizer affordability impacting grower purchasing behavior, particularly in the U.S. and Brazil [7][12] - Management expressed optimism about the future, citing strong crop yields and the need for nutrient replenishment [9][16] Other Important Information - The company achieved $150 million in initial cost savings and is on track to reach a revised target of $250 million by the end of 2026 [5] - Cash conversion rates are expected to improve significantly in 2026 as raw material prices stabilize and phosphate rock inventories are consumed [22][46] - The company is actively engaged in discussions regarding non-core asset sales and capital reallocation, with several strategic talks ongoing [24] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on production performance after September issues - Management confirmed commitment to achieving normalized production rates, with recent improvements noted despite some delays [28][30] Question: Difference between good and bad production days - The distinction is now based on operational decision-making rather than structural asset health, with a focus on consistency in operations [34][35] Question: Clarification on phosphate run rate and margins - The current phosphate run rate is approximately 1.8 million tons, with expectations for improved margins as production increases [37][39] Question: Cash flow and CapEx outlook - Cash flow conversion is expected to improve in 2026, with a focus on reducing capital expenditures [43][46] Question: Impact of sulfur prices on phosphate margins - Stripping margins are expected to decline due to rising raw material costs, but remain above historical norms [75][76] Question: Implications of phosphate being added to the critical minerals list - Management is advocating for streamlined regulatory frameworks to enhance competitiveness and supply within North America [81][82]

Third Quarter 2025 Performance - Consolidated Revenues reached $3452 million[6] - Net Income was $340 million[6] - Operating Earnings totaled $411 million[6] - Adjusted EBITDA was $806 million[6] Segment Results - **Phosphate:** Net Revenues were $1290 million, Adjusted EBITDA was $280 million, and Operating Earnings were $102 million[6] - **Potash:** Net Revenues were $695 million, Adjusted EBITDA was $329 million, and Operating Earnings were $229 million[6] - **Mosaic Fertilizantes:** Net Revenues were $1592 million, Adjusted EBITDA was $241 million, and Operating Earnings were $96 million[6] Phosphate Division - Phosphate division realized stripping margin in excess of $500 per tonne[9] - Phosphate division Q3 idle and turnaround expenses declined from $84 million in Q2 to $42 million[9] - Phosphate division trailing 3-month period ending October reached approximately 18 million tonnes[9] Potash Division - Potash division Q3 MOP cash cost of production declined by 4% from $74 to $71 per tonne[12] - Potash division Q3 idle and turnaround declined to $16M from $34M in the second quarter[12] Mosaic Fertilizantes Division - Mosaic Fertilizantes division Adjusted EBITDA of $241M, up 190% compared to the prior year[15] - Mosaic Fertilizantes division recovered $27M in Q3 against bad debt in prior quarter[15]

Core Viewpoint - RBC Capital upgraded The Mosaic Company's stock from "Sector Perform" to "Outperform," indicating a positive outlook on the company's future performance [1][6] Financial Performance - Mosaic reported third-quarter earnings of $1.04 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.98 per share, and showing a significant increase from $0.34 per share in the same quarter last year, resulting in an earnings surprise of +6.12% [2][6] - The company generated $3.45 billion in revenue for the quarter ending September 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.40%, and representing a notable rise from $2.81 billion reported a year ago [3][6] Stock Performance - The current stock price of $26.55 reflects a decrease of 2.60%, equivalent to a drop of $0.71, with a trading range for the day between $26.24 and $26.82 [4] - Over the past year, the stock has reached a high of $38.23 and a low of $22.36, with a market capitalization of approximately $8.43 billion and a trading volume of 8,021,431 shares [4] Future Insights - A fireside chat scheduled for November 5th will provide investors and analysts with further insights into Mosaic's performance and future plans, accessible via the company's website [5]

Core Viewpoint - CF Industries is a leading global manufacturer of nitrogen-based fertilizers, with upcoming quarterly earnings expected to provide insights into its performance and future outlook [1][3]. Financial Performance - In the previous quarter, CF Industries reported earnings of $2.37 per share, exceeding the consensus estimate of $2.35, and achieved revenue of $1.89 billion, surpassing the expected $1.73 billion, marking a 20.2% increase in quarterly revenue year-over-year [2][6]. - The company has a return on equity of 17.10% and a net margin of 20.19%, indicating strong financial performance [2][6]. Market Expectations - Analysts predict CF Industries will report earnings of $1.74 per share and revenue of approximately $1.59 billion for the upcoming quarter [1][6]. - The market is closely monitoring whether the company will exceed these expectations, as doing so could lead to a rise in stock price, while failing to meet them may result in a decline [3]. Valuation Metrics - CF Industries has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of approximately 10.58, a price-to-sales ratio of about 2.12, and an enterprise value to sales ratio of around 2.38, reflecting its valuation relative to earnings and sales [4]. - The enterprise value to operating cash flow ratio is 6.13, and the earnings yield is approximately 9.45%, indicating the company's cash flow generation and return on investment for shareholders [5]. - The debt-to-equity ratio stands at about 0.67, and the current ratio is approximately 3.22, suggesting a balanced approach to financing and strong short-term liquidity [5].

Core Insights - Mosaic reported quarterly earnings of $1.04 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.98 per share, and showing significant growth from $0.34 per share a year ago, resulting in an earnings surprise of +6.12% [1] - The company generated revenues of $3.45 billion for the quarter ended September 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.40% and increasing from $2.81 billion year-over-year [2] - Mosaic's stock has increased by approximately 10.9% since the beginning of the year, while the S&P 500 has gained 16.5% [3] Earnings Outlook - The future performance of Mosaic's stock will largely depend on management's commentary during the earnings call and the revisions of earnings estimates [3][4] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.82 on revenues of $3.24 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $2.93 on revenues of $12.55 billion [7] Industry Context - The Fertilizers industry, to which Mosaic belongs, is currently ranked in the bottom 18% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating potential challenges ahead [8] - Empirical research suggests a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, which could impact Mosaic's stock performance [5][6]

Financial Performance - Q4 2023 diluted net earnings per share was $1.11, while Q1 2024 is projected at $0.14, indicating a significant decline[2] - Total net sales for Q4 2023 were $3,149 million, compared to $2,679 million in Q1 2024, reflecting a decrease of approximately 15%[2] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2023 was $646 million, with a forecast of $576 million for Q1 2024, showing a decline of about 11%[2] - Operating earnings in Q4 2023 were $279 million, with a decrease to $173 million anticipated in Q1 2024[2] - The company reported a net loss attributable to Mosaic of $162 million for Q1 2025, following a profit of $365 million in Q4 2023[2] Sales and Revenue - Phosphate segment sales for Q4 2023 reached $1,070 million, with a slight increase to $1,169 million projected for Q1 2024[2] - Potash segment sales decreased from $758 million in Q4 2023 to $643 million in Q1 2024, a drop of approximately 15%[2] - Mosaic Fertilizantes segment reported $1,192 million in sales for Q4 2023, with a forecast of $886 million for Q1 2024, indicating a decline of about 26%[2] - Total net sales for Q4 2023 were $1,070 million, with a gross margin of $139 million, representing 13% of sales[5] - Finished goods net sales increased to $1,180 million in Q2 2024, up from $1,169 million in Q1 2024[5] Cost and Margin Analysis - Gross margin for Q4 2023 was $560 million, translating to a gross margin rate of 18%, while Q1 2024 is expected to drop to 15%[2] - The phosphate segment's gross margin per tonne of finished product was $88 in Q4 2023, with an adjusted gross margin of $106 per tonne[5] - Net Sales for Q4 2023 were $758 million, with a Gross Margin of $255 million, representing a Gross Margin percentage of 34%[7] - Adjusted Gross Margin for Q4 2023 was $97 million, with a Gross Margin per tonne of finished product at $44[9] Production and Operational Metrics - Total finished product sales volume for Q4 2023 was 1,582,000 tonnes, with an average finished product selling price of $553 per tonne[5] - The operating rate for production in Q4 2023 was 60%, with total tonnes produced at 1,479,000[5] - Production Volume for Q4 2023 was 2,527,000 tonnes, with an Operating Rate of 90%[7] - Total Finished Product sales volume for Q4 2023 was 2,577,000 tonnes, an increase from 2,163,000 tonnes in Q3 2023[7] Capital Expenditures and Investments - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2023 was $259 million, with capital expenditures of $208 million[5] - Capital expenditures for Q4 2023 were $105 million, a decrease from $97 million in Q3 2023[7] - Capital expenditures in Q4 2023 amounted to $68 million, with a focus on enhancing production capabilities[9] Foreign Exchange and Notable Items - Consolidated foreign currency transaction loss of $390 million impacted EPS by $(0.99)[20] - Unrealized loss on derivatives amounted to $(80) million, affecting EPS by $(0.20)[20] - Total notable items for Q4 2024 resulted in a net impact of $(40) million, contributing $0.08 to EPS[20] - The company reported a foreign exchange gain of $32 million in Q4 2023, contributing positively to earnings[9] Future Outlook and Strategic Initiatives - Future guidance indicates a projected increase in net sales and gross margin as new products and market expansions are anticipated[9] - The average price of finished products sold by the company is expected to increase, enhancing revenue potential in future quarters[29] - The company plans to focus on market expansion and new product development to drive future growth[29] - The company is committed to improving operational efficiency and reducing costs in response to market conditions[37]

Core Insights - The Mosaic Company reported its financial results for Q3 2025, indicating a focus on performance metrics and financial health [1] Financial Performance - The earnings release and supplemental materials are accessible for detailed financial analysis [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Mosaic Company is a key player in the agricultural sector, focusing on concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients, despite facing competition from other fertilizer producers [1] Financial Performance Expectations - Mosaic is expected to release its third-quarter earnings on November 4, 2025, with analysts predicting an EPS of $0.96 and revenue of $3.53 billion, benefiting from increased fertilizer prices and cost-reduction strategies [2] - The company has experienced operational challenges that may have impacted its third-quarter volumes [2] Stock Performance and Market Comparison - Mosaic's shares have risen by 7.1% over the past year, but this is below the Zacks Fertilizers industry's increase of 16.8% [3] - The company has faced a negative earnings surprise of 13.7% on average over the last four quarters, including a significant 23.9% negative surprise in the most recent quarter [3] Financial Metrics and Valuation - Mosaic's P/E ratio stands at 9.24, indicating moderate market valuation, while its price-to-sales ratio of 0.77 shows revenue valued at less than one times its market capitalization [4] - The enterprise value to sales ratio is 1.15, and the enterprise value to operating cash flow ratio is 10.97, reflecting the company's total valuation and cash flow efficiency [4] - The earnings yield of 10.83% suggests a substantial return on earnings relative to its share price [5] - The company maintains a moderate debt level with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.37, and a current ratio of 1.14 indicates reasonable liquidity to cover short-term liabilities [5]