In its upcoming report, Sunrun (RUN) is predicted by Wall Street analysts to post quarterly loss of -$0.08 per share, reflecting a decline of 105.7% compared to the same period last year. Revenues are forecasted to be $656.91 million, representing a year-over-year increase of 26.7%.The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has remained unchanged over the last 30 days. This represents how the covering analysts, as a whole, have reassessed their initial estimates during this timeframe.Before a company announ ...

CNBC recognized Sunrun CEO for accelerating battery storage growth and advancing distributed power plant innovation to help meet surging energy demand in AmericaSAN FRANCISCO, Feb. 25, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Sunrun (Nasdaq: RUN), America’s largest provider of home battery storage, solar, and home-to-grid power plants, today announced that CEO Mary Powell has been named to the 2026 CNBC Changemakers: Women Transforming Business list. The annual list honors 50 exceptional female leaders who are impacting so ...

SAN FRANCISCO and OAKLAND, Calif., Feb. 24, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Sunrun (Nasdaq: RUN), America’s largest provider of home battery storage, solar, and home-to-grid power plants, has completed a successful dispatching season of a first-of-its-kind distributed power plant partnership with Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E). More than 1,000 Sunrun customers’ storage-plus-solar systems exported energy to alleviate local grid constraints, with the goal of helping PG&E avoid or defer distribution upgrades ...

Company Overview - Sunrun is a leading provider of residential solar energy solutions in the United States, specializing in residential solar energy systems and battery storage solutions, and operates a virtual power plant system [7] - As of February 11, 2026, Sunrun's stock price was $20.28, with a market capitalization of $4.71 billion and a revenue of $2.32 billion for the trailing twelve months [6] Recent Transactions - Edward Harris Fenster, a director at Sunrun, sold 163,844 shares worth approximately $3.27 million on February 11, 2026, following the exercise of 250,600 stock options [1][2] - The transaction value was based on a weighted average purchase price of $19.95, with a post-transaction value of $29.8 million for Fenster's direct ownership [2] Stock Performance - Sunrun's stock experienced a significant increase of approximately 95% in 2025, marking the first year of positive gains since 2020, and is up 8% in 2026 as of February 21 [8] - The company's stock has a 1-year price change of 135.54% [6] Market Position and Challenges - Sunrun is the largest residential solar installer by volume in the United States and has the nation's largest distributed power plant, having grown more than fivefold in 2025 [11] - The company has a strong customer base in California and plans to expand operations in the Northeast, but faced challenges due to the expiration of a 30% federal tax credit for solar installations at the end of 2025 [9][10] - The solar industry has seen significant layoffs and market exits among competitors due to revenue declines following the tax credit expiration [10] Future Outlook - Sunrun's unique virtual power plant focus may benefit residential homes and electrical power grids, although full-scale implementation may take time [8] - The company may also benefit from the rise of AI and data centers that require substantial electricity [11]

Company Overview - Sunrun is a leading provider of residential solar energy solutions in the United States, specializing in residential solar energy systems and battery storage solutions, and operates a virtual power plant system [6] - The company's current stock price is $20.28, with a market capitalization of $4.71 billion and a revenue of $2.32 billion for the trailing twelve months [3][6] - Sunrun's stock has experienced a significant price change of 135.54% over the past year [3] Recent Insider Activity - Lynn Michelle Jurich, a director at Sunrun, sold 50,000 shares for approximately $929,700 on February 2, 2026, which represents 2.17% of her direct holdings at the time [1][5] - The sale aligns with Jurich's recent trading activity, as she has consistently executed similarly sized trades over the last 18 months [5] - The transaction was part of a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan established on June 9, 2025, indicating it was scheduled in advance [7] Market Performance - Sunrun's stock rose approximately 95% in 2025, marking the first year of positive gains since 2020, and is up 8% in 2026 as of February 21 [8] - The company has a strong customer base in California and is expanding operations in the Northeast [9] - Despite the positive growth, the company faced challenges due to the expiration of a 30% federal tax credit for solar installations and battery storage at the end of 2025 [9][10] Competitive Landscape - Sunrun is the largest residential solar installer by volume in the U.S. and has the largest distributed power plant, which grew more than fivefold in 2025 [11] - The solar industry has seen significant layoffs and market exits from competitors due to declining revenues following the tax credit expiration [10] - The company may benefit from the increasing reliance on electricity by AI and data centers, positioning it for long-term growth [11]

Company Performance - Sunrun's stock increased by 1.2% to $20.28, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 0.69% for the day [1] - Over the past month, Sunrun's stock has risen by 6.82%, which is lower than the Oils-Energy sector's increase of 14.14% and better than the S&P 500's decline of 1% [1] Earnings Expectations - Sunrun is expected to report earnings of -$0.08 per share on February 26, 2026, indicating a year-over-year decline of 105.67% [2] - Revenue is anticipated to reach $656.91 million, reflecting a 26.7% increase compared to the same quarter last year [2] Full Year Estimates - For the full year, analysts project earnings of $1.32 per share and revenue of $2.43 billion, representing changes of -0.75% and +19.22% respectively from the previous year [3] - Recent adjustments to analyst estimates for Sunrun may indicate shifting business dynamics, with positive revisions suggesting a favorable business outlook [3] Valuation Metrics - Sunrun currently has a Forward P/E ratio of 55.03, which is significantly higher than the industry average Forward P/E of 19.42 [5] - The Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has remained unchanged over the past month, and Sunrun holds a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) [5] Industry Context - The solar industry, part of the Oils-Energy sector, has a Zacks Industry Rank of 80, placing it in the top 33% of over 250 industries [6] - Strong individual industry groups, as measured by the Zacks Industry Rank, tend to outperform weaker groups by a factor of 2 to 1 [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the reliability of brokerage recommendations, particularly focusing on Sunrun (RUN), and emphasizes the importance of using these recommendations in conjunction with other analytical tools like the Zacks Rank to make informed investment decisions [1][5]. Brokerage Recommendations - Sunrun has an average brokerage recommendation (ABR) of 1.76, indicating a consensus between Strong Buy and Buy, based on recommendations from 25 brokerage firms [2]. - Out of the 25 recommendations, 15 are classified as Strong Buy, accounting for 60% of the total, while only one is classified as Buy, making up 4% [2]. Limitations of Brokerage Recommendations - Solely relying on brokerage recommendations for investment decisions may not be advisable, as studies indicate these recommendations often do not successfully guide investors towards stocks with high potential for price appreciation [5]. - Analysts from brokerage firms tend to exhibit a strong positive bias in their ratings due to vested interests, with five "Strong Buy" recommendations for every "Strong Sell" [6][11]. Zacks Rank as an Alternative - The Zacks Rank is presented as a more reliable indicator of a stock's near-term price performance, classifying stocks into five groups based on earnings estimate revisions [8][12]. - The Zacks Rank is updated more frequently than the ABR, reflecting timely changes in earnings estimates, which are crucial for predicting future price movements [13]. Current Earnings Estimates for Sunrun - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Sunrun's earnings has increased by 996.3% over the past month, now standing at $1.32, indicating growing optimism among analysts regarding the company's earnings prospects [14]. - This significant change in consensus estimates, along with other factors, has resulted in a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) for Sunrun, suggesting a positive outlook for the stock [15].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2025, the company closed $4.3 billion in new transactions, an increase of 87% compared to 2024, with a growing pipeline exceeding $6.5 billion by year-end [6][10] - Adjusted EPS grew by 10.2% in 2025, reaching $2.70 per share, supported by increased investment volumes and profitability [7][17] - Adjusted ROE rose to 13.4%, reflecting a 70 basis point increase from 2024, driven by higher yields and growth in fees from managed assets [18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a 25% increase in adjusted recurring net investment income, totaling $362 million in 2025 [17] - The securitization business contributed $65 million to adjusted earnings, indicating strong performance in this area [18] - The portfolio yield improved to 8.8%, with managed assets growing 18% to $16.1 billion by the end of 2025 [19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The renewables pipeline is projected to exceed $230 billion, with renewables accounting for 99% of projected capacity additions in 2026 [11] - The demand for project-level capital remains strong, with significant growth in the renewables sector, particularly in solar and storage [10][11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to maintain a payout ratio below 50% by 2028, focusing on capital recycling to enhance growth and profitability [16][84] - The strategy includes expanding equity commitments in the CCH1 vehicle, which has been upsized by $1 billion in Q4 2025 [8][20] - The company is committed to sustainability, with a record of avoiding 1.7 million metric tons of CO2 emissions from new investments in 2025 [24] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving profitability objectives, with a three-year guidance extending to 2028, expecting adjusted EPS in the range of $3.50-$3.60 [15][29] - The company noted that the underlying demand for power and the cost-effectiveness of its asset classes create an attractive investing environment [10] - Management acknowledged challenges such as policy changes and market dynamics but emphasized the resilience of the business model [12] Other Important Information - The company has made significant investments in talent and technology to support future growth, exceeding $16 billion in managed assets [25] - The introduction of junior subordinated hybrid notes is expected to enhance profitability and reduce reliance on new equity issuance [7][23] Q&A Session Summary Question: 2028 outlook and growth above 10% CAGR - Management highlighted pathways to exceed guidance through increased volume, better yields, and lower debt costs [28][29] Question: 2026 outlook - Management indicated that while they do not provide specific guidance for 2026, they expect to maintain higher transaction closings than historical levels [32] Question: Change in guidance strategy - The switch to nominal EPS guidance allows for more precise adjustments in future quarters, reflecting increased confidence in business performance [39] Question: Large deals in the pipeline - Management confirmed no structural change in the business, with project sizes increasing due to market demand [42] Question: Market share and pipeline growth - Management believes they have increased market share, absorbing demand from competitors, although precise data is lacking [49][50] Question: Data center financing opportunities - Management is evaluating potential roles in the data center ecosystem but has no direct investments to report at this time [82] Question: Impact of PPA renegotiations on earnings - Positive renegotiations of PPAs are expected to enhance long-term cash flows and portfolio yield [73][76]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the virtual power plant sector within the power equipment and new energy industry [2] Core Insights - Virtual power plants are advancing towards market-oriented development, leveraging modern information communication and system integration technologies to aggregate distributed energy resources [6][14] - The Chinese government has issued guidelines to accelerate the development of virtual power plants, aiming for a national regulation capacity of over 20 million kilowatts by 2027 and over 50 million kilowatts by 2030 [35][57] - The market for virtual power plants is expected to expand significantly, with various business models emerging as the sector matures [38] Summary by Sections 1. Virtual Power Plants as a New Smart Grid Control Technology - Virtual power plants are defined as organizations that optimize power systems and participate in market transactions by aggregating distributed energy resources [14] - The development of virtual power plants is supported by national policies, which encourage innovation in business models and services [36][38] 2. Market Space and Development of Virtual Power Plants - The virtual power plant industry has a broad market space and is expected to accelerate towards large-scale development [6][35] - By 2027, the operational management mechanism for virtual power plants is expected to be mature and standardized, with a robust market participation mechanism [35][57] 3. Investment Strategies and Key Companies - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong distributed resource capabilities and advantages in power information technology, such as Guodian NARI (国电南瑞), Nanfang Energy (南网能源), and Dongfang Electronics (东方电子) [58][59][61] - Guodian NARI is noted for its comprehensive solutions covering various trading types and user scales, having established virtual power plant operational service platforms for multiple provincial power companies [58] - Nanfang Energy has a strong customer base and is actively participating in market-oriented power trading and auxiliary services through its virtual power plant initiatives [59] - Dongfang Electronics leverages its extensive experience in the energy sector to develop a full industry chain for virtual power plant construction and operation, focusing on advanced technologies [61]

Summary of Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily focuses on the energy sector, particularly independent power producers (IPPs), renewable energy, and energy storage solutions. [1][2] Key Points and Arguments Market Dynamics - Recent market volatility has seen certain stocks drop by 15% to 20% without any negative news, attributed to a sharp decline in market risk appetite. [1] - The retail sector is experiencing a seasonal downturn, with January typically strong but February showing weakness, exacerbated by capital gains taxes. [1] Independent Power Producers (IPPs) - The IPP sector is currently viewed positively, with companies like Vista and Talon identified as top picks due to strong valuation support and attractive free cash flow yields. [3] - The demand growth in markets like Texas and PJM is outpacing supply, leading to a tight market environment. [3][4] - Political dynamics and affordability concerns are impacting the market, but the supply-demand imbalance is expected to support future price increases. [4] Transaction Activity - There is an expectation for continued transaction activity among IPPs, particularly as they offer unique advantages such as prime land and long-term contracts. [5][6] On-Site Power Generation - On-site power generation stocks have shown strong performance, with companies like Liberty Energy expanding their power business significantly. [6] - The trend towards self-generation among data centers is expected to continue, providing opportunities for on-site power stocks. [8] Energy Storage - The energy storage market is projected to grow significantly, driven by the demand from data centers and utility-scale projects. [10] - The potential market size for data center energy storage is estimated to be between 225 to 550 GWh. [10] - Companies like Nxtra and AES are highlighted as key players in the energy storage sector. [10] Renewable Energy Projects - Utility-scale renewable energy projects are expected to maintain strong order volumes, with NextEra Energy reporting record orders. [14] - The solar industry is facing potential impacts from new tariffs and regulations, which could affect companies like First Solar. [22][24] Residential Solar Market - The residential solar market is showing signs of recovery, with companies like Enphase potentially reaching a bottom in their performance. [25][26] - The leasing model in residential solar is expected to provide more stable growth compared to companies focused on sales. [26] Bloom Energy - Bloom Energy is anticipated to provide strong revenue guidance for 2026, with expectations for significant order volumes. [28] Additional Important Insights - The discussion touches on the geopolitical implications of energy supply chains, particularly regarding reliance on Chinese imports for battery production. [12] - The potential for Tesla to enter the solar panel market is noted, with implications for competition in the solar industry. [16][23] - The conversation also highlights the importance of regulatory clarity in facilitating transactions in the energy sector. [5] This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the energy sector.